Application of analysis methods and forecasting of time series of indicators of the effectiveness of airworthiness maintaining of civil aircraft

2021 ◽  
pp. 30-36
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Random Processes ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Random Component ◽  
Regular Component ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Analysis Methodology ◽  
Civil Aircraft ◽  
Harmonic Components ◽  
Maintenance Process

The use of the analysis methodology and forecasting of time series of indicators of the effectiveness of maintaining airworthiness of aircraft of civil aviation made it possible to present the dynamics of indicators as a combination of the regular component, harmonic components with oscillation periods of 12 months and more, and a random component, which represents random processes developing under the influence of groups of factors affecting the airworthiness maintenance process. The results obtained are aimed at improving the safety and effectiveness of aircraft use. Keywords: aircraft, airworthiness, effectiveness of airworthiness maintenance, analysis methodology, forecasting, time series of effectiveness indicators. [email protected]

scholarly journals Research on Human-Error Factors of Civil Aircraft Pilots Based On Grey Relational Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 151 ◽  
pp. 05005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yundong Guo ◽  
Youchao Sun ◽  
Si Chen
Keyword(s):  
Grey Relational Analysis ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Aviation Accidents ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Relational Analysis ◽  
Civil Aircraft ◽  
Grey Relational ◽  
Aircraft Pilots

In consideration of the situation that civil aviation accidents involve many human-error factors and show the features of typical grey systems, an index system of civil aviation accident human-error factors is built using human factor analysis and classification system model. With the data of accidents happened worldwide between 2008 and 2011, the correlation between human-error factors can be analyzed quantitatively using the method of grey relational analysis. Research results show that the order of main factors affecting pilot human-error factors is preconditions for unsafe acts, unsafe supervision, organization and unsafe acts. The factor related most closely with second-level indexes and pilot human-error factors is the physical/mental limitations of pilots, followed by supervisory violations. The relevancy between the first-level indexes and the corresponding second-level indexes and the relevancy between second-level indexes can also be analyzed quantitatively.

Methods of analysis and forecasting of time series of indicators of the effectiveness of maintaining the airworthiness of civil aircraft

2021 ◽  
pp. 11-18
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Aviation Industry ◽  
Methods Of Analysis ◽  
Civil Aircraft ◽  
The Cost

A method for analyzing and predicting time series of effectiveness indicators for maintaining the airworthiness of civil aircraft based on operational observations is developed. The methodic is intended for managers and specialists of organizations and enterprises of civil aviation and the aviation industry. The methodic is aimed at improving the safety and regularity of flights, the effectiveness of using aircraft, and the cost-effectiveness of maintaining the airworthiness of aircraft. Keywords: aircraft, civil aviation, airworthiness, effectiveness of maintaining airworthiness, methods of analysis and forecasting of time series of effectiveness indicators, operational observations. [email protected]

scholarly journals Optimization of Maintenance in Civil Aviation Aircraft Equipments

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gangfeng Wang
Keyword(s):  
Information Disclosure ◽  
Maintenance Management ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Aircraft Maintenance ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Civil Aircraft ◽  
Maintenance Work ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
Countermeasures And Suggestions

As the economic level rising, the function and stability of civil aircraft have been greatly improved. However, with the development of science and technology in modern civil aviation transportation, the frequent occurrence of flight accidents has threatened people’s safety. The main reason is the internal failure of the engine body or the daily maintenance management is incomplete. Therefore, the relevant maintenance management departments should attach great importance to the first core research and management of civil aircraft stability and safety. In view of various equipment problems existing in the operation of civil aircraft, the practical application of data collection mode and maintenance information disclosure mode of modern aircraft maintenance equipment is analyzed. This paper describes some characteristics of aircraft maintenance work, and combined with the main factors affecting the risk of civil aircraft maintenance, giving countermeasures and suggestions to effectively improve the level of civil aircraft maintenance risk management.

Business Aviation in Russia: Specific Features and Prospects of Development

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 86-93
Author(s):  
D. V. Slivinsky ◽  
I. A. Fomina ◽  
D. G. Menshikh
Keyword(s):  
Systems Approach ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Organization And Management ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
Business Aviation ◽  
Wide Range

The presented study determines the role of business aviation in the modern economy and examines the specific features of its development in Russia.Aim. The study aims to analyze the development of business aviation in Russia and its correlation with economic development in general.Tasks. The authors determine the benefits of business aviation as a business tool, examine the specific features of the Russian business aviation market and problems of its development, and identify factors that affect the development of business aviation in Russia.Methods. This study uses the methods of comparative and retrospective analysis, cross-country comparison, systems approach, and expert analytics.Results. Business aviation is a new segment of civil aviation for Russia. Therefore, it is advisable to rely on foreign practices in the management of its development. In many countries, business aviation is a separate industry that specializes in providing transport services to a wide range of corporate clients and/or individuals. The development of this industry is associated with the economic growth rate and the development level of the national economy, and also depends on the national institutional specifics. This study describes the specific features of development of business aviation in Russia and problems arising in the organization and management of this type of business.Conclusions. The authors develop a system of factors affecting the development of business aviation in Russia, describe the major problems of this industry, and propose solutions. The results of this study can be used in the development (adjustment) of business aviation development strategies in Russia both at the industrial and corporate level, and in the implementation of the national policy in this field.

Assessment of labor intensity indicators and factors affecting fatigue in civil aviation pilots based on the results of a questionnaire

2021 ◽  
Vol 61 (6) ◽  
pp. 356-364
Author(s):  
Evgeny V. Zibarev ◽  
Igor V. Bukhtiyarov ◽  
Elena A. Valtseva ◽  
Andrej V. Tokarev
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Essential Feature ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Professional Activity ◽  
Labor Intensity ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Delayed Reaction ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Fatigue Development ◽  
Aviation Pilots

Introduction. An essential feature of the professional activity of pilots of civil aviation aircraft is the high intensity of work due to pronounced emotional, intellectual, and sensory loads, unique work modes. The study aims to assess the intensity of work and the prevalence of factors affecting fatigue among civil aviation pilots according to an anonymous online questionnaire. Materials and methods. Experts surveyed 667 members of the flight crews in remote anonymous online questioning. We developed the questionnaires under the criteria for assessing the intensity of work, assessing the risk factors for fatigue development according to the ICAO recommendations, and analyzing the pilot's activity algorithm. The researchers used descriptive statistical methods to analyze the survey data. Results. The working conditions of pilots according to 7 indicators of tension correspond to class 3.2: a high level of intellectual loads (72-100% of pilots), a large number of overlapping time zones (18%), the maximum duration of concentrated observation (70.7%), a high density of signals and messages (29.9%), a significant number of objects of simultaneous observation (18.9%), a high degree of risk to one's own life and responsibility for the safety of others (98%), as well as a rough working day (79%). According to the totality of indicators, the general class of labor intensity corresponds to the highest degree (class 3.3). The factors affecting the fatigue of pilots include rare rest between flights (44.6% of respondents), intermittent sleep (59.9%), not always a full sleep before the night flight shift (85.9%). According to the survey results, the share of pilots who have spontaneous sleep during the flight is 74.3%, and frequently delayed reaction to usual, non - standard, or extreme stimuli and signals is 12.3%. Conclusions. The obtained data of the questionnaire survey confirm the results of psychophysiological studies that have shown that the level of the labor intensity of pilots is "super-intense or extreme." Therefore, considering the prevalence of factors affecting fatigue among the crew members, and based on the understanding of the fundamental problems noted by the pilots, it is necessary to develop measures and management solutions to minimize the risk factors for fatigue development.

scholarly journals Modelling of the Impact of National Standardization on Duopolistic Competition in the Civil Aircraft Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 859-873
Author(s):  
E. V. Varyukhina ◽  
◽  
V. V. Klochkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Market Competition ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Aviation Industry ◽  
Equilibrium Degree ◽  
Aviation Noise ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
Civil Aircraft ◽  
Zero Sum ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to analyze standards as one of the main tools of protectionism in global markets of industrial goods. We use standards for modeling of market competition and adapt this approach for civil aviation markets. The role of local noise standards in civil aircraft markets is discussed. Imposition of more stringent aviation noise standards is modelled in the form of a two-person non-zero-sum game. Players are aircraft corporations that conduct research and development to reduce noise and lobby for stricter regulations in their controlled markets. The model can be used to predict that tighter aviation noise standards will be imposed and to justify the strategy of Russian aviation industry and science. The proposed approach can be adapted for other industries with strict regulations (in terms of safety, ecology). Such estimation allows us to assess whether it is in the country’s interests to participate in the standards race or not. It is shown that the equilibrium degree of standards tightening is higher if the players’ market shares are close to equal or individual players have advantages in the cost of production and/or product improvement is highly likely due to the company’s R&D progress.

scholarly journals Analyzing Cross-country Pandemic Connectedness During COVID-19 Using a Spatial-Temporal Database: Network Analysis (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda MY Chu ◽  
Jacky NL Chan ◽  
Jenny TY Tsang ◽  
Agnes Tiwari ◽  
Mike KP So
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Early Recognition ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Temporal Database ◽  
Health Events

UNSTRUCTURED Communicable diseases including COVID-19 pose a major threat to public health worldwide. To curb the spread of communicable diseases effectively, timely surveillance and prediction of the risk of pandemics are essential. The aim of this study is to analyze free and publicly available data to construct useful travel data records for network statistics other than common descriptive statistics. This study describes analytical findings of time-series plots and spatial-temporal maps to illustrate or visualize pandemic connectedness. We analyzed data retrieved from the web-based Collaborative Arrangement for the Prevention and Management of Public Health Events in Civil Aviation dashboard, which contains up-to-date and comprehensive meta-information on civil flights from 193 national governments in accordance with the airport, country, city, latitude, and the longitude of flight origin and the destination. We used the database to visualize pandemic connectedness through the workflow of travel data collection, network construction, data aggregation, travel statistics calculation, and visualization with time-series plots and spatial-temporal maps. We observed similar patterns in the time-series plots of worldwide daily flights from January to early-March of 2019 and 2020. A sharp reduction in the number of daily flights recorded in mid-March 2020 was likely related to large-scale air travel restrictions owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. The levels of connectedness between places are strong indicators of the risk of a pandemic. Since the initial reports of COVID-19 cases worldwide, a high network density and reciprocity in early-March 2020 served as early signals of the COVID-19 pandemic and were associated with the rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in mid-March 2020. The spatial-temporal map of connectedness in Europe on March 13, 2020, shows the highest level of connectedness among European countries, which reflected severe outbreaks of COVID-19 in late March and early April of 2020. As a quality control measure, we used the aggregated numbers of international flights from April to October 2020 to compare the number of international flights officially reported by the International Civil Aviation Organization with the data collected from the Collaborative Arrangement for the Prevention and Management of Public Health Events in Civil Aviation dashboard, and we observed high consistency between the 2 data sets. The flexible design of the database provides users access to network connectedness at different periods, places, and spatial levels through various network statistics calculation methods in accordance with their needs. The analysis can facilitate early recognition of the risk of a current communicable disease pandemic and newly emerging communicable diseases in the future.

scholarly journals Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Alih Fungsi Lahan Sawah di Kabupaten Aceh Besar

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 525-533
Author(s):  
Raudhatul Husna ◽  
Azhar Azhar ◽  
Edy Marsudi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Rice Field ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Rice Productivity ◽  
Negative Impacts

Abstrak. Alih fungsi lahan atau lazimnya disebut sebagai konversi lahan adalah  perubahan fungsi sebagian atau seluruh kawasan lahan dari fungsinya semula (seperti yang direncanakan) menjadi fungsi lain yang membawa dampak negatif terhadap lingkungan dan potensi lahan itu sendiri. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah harga lahan, kepadatan penduduk, produktivitas padi dan jumlah PDRB dapat mempengaruhi alih fungsi lahan sawah di Kabupaten Aceh Besar. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder. Data yang dikumpulkan adalah data time series dengan range tahun 2002 sampai 2016. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis  regresi linier berganda. hasil penelitian dan pembahasan serta pengujian SPSS menunjukkan bahwa harga lahan, kepadatan penduduk, dan produktivitas padi berpengaruh nyata terhadap alih fungsi lahan sawah di Kabupaten Aceh Besar. sedangkan jumlah PDRB tidak berpengaruh terhadap alih fungsi lahan sawah. Hal ini ditunjukkan oleh koefisien regresi untuk variabel jumlah PDRB sebesar 0,00015. Hasil pengujian statistik menunjukkan nilai t hitung untuk jumlah PDRB sebesar 1,315 dengan nilai signifikan sebesar 0,218. Sedangkan nilai t tabel sebesar 1,782 yang berarti nilai t hitung t tabel (1,315 1,782).  Factors Affecting The Conversion Of Paddy Fields In Kabupaten Aceh Besar Abstract. Land use change or commonly referred to as land conversion is a change in the function of part or all of the land area from its original function (as planned) into other functions that bring negative impacts to the environment and the potential of the land itself. This study aims to find out whether the price of land, population density, rice productivity and the amount of GRDP can affect the conversion of rice field functions in Aceh Besar District. The data used in this research is secondary data. The data collected is time series data with range of year 2002 until 2016. This research use multiple linier regression analysis method. the results of research and discussion and testing of SPSS showed that land price, population density, and rice productivity significantly affected the conversion of wetland in Aceh Besar district. while the number of GDP does not affect the conversion of wetland. This is indicated by the regression coefficient for the GRDP variable of 0.00015. The results of statistical tests show the value of t arithmetic for the amount of GRDP by 1.315 with a significant value of 0.218. While the value of t table of 1.782 which means the value of t arithmetic t table (1,315 1.782).

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