scholarly journals Prediction of COVID-19 evolution in Binh Duong province using SIR epidemiological model

2021 ◽  
pp. 415-422
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Epidemiological Model ◽  
Optimal Parameters ◽  
Recovery Coefficient ◽  
Reproduction Ratio ◽  
R Language ◽  
In Silico Studies ◽  
Computer Codes ◽  
The Right ◽  
And Control

With the fast growth of the COVID-19 pandemic, in-silico studies based on the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemiological model are very critical to provide reliable predictions of the COVID-19 evolution that can effectively support governments to issue the right measures to prevent and control the pandemic. In this study, the evolution of the COVID-19 in the Binh Duong province is investigated using the SIR model implemented in R-Studio software, in which the homemade computer codes based on the SIR model are developed using R language to automatically detect the optimal parameters in the model, including the reproduction ratio R0, the infection coefficient β, and the recovery coefficient γ. The SIR predictions indicate that the number of new positive cases per day in the Binh Duong province is only 40 new cases by November 30, 2021, and the total number of new cases per day becomes zero by middle February 2021. Besides, the Binh Duong province only has 1126 infected cases by November 30, 2021, which reduces to 203 cases at the end of December 2021. Through the SIR results, the COVID-19 pandemic in the Binh Duong is predicted to be ended at the end of December 2021.

scholarly journals The attainment of herd immunity with reduced risk of contact infection in modelling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kian Boon Law ◽  
Kalaiarasu M Peariasamy ◽  
Hishamshah Ibrahim ◽  
Noor Hisham Abdullah
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Mixed Population ◽  
Reproduction Ratio ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
And Control ◽  
Reduced Risk

Abstract The risk of contact infection among susceptible individuals in a randomly mixed population can be reduced by the presence of immune individuals and this concept is referred to as herd immunity1–3. The conventional susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model does not feature a reduced risk of susceptible individuals in the transmission dynamics of infectious disease, therefore violates the fundamental of herd immunity4. Here we show that the reduced risk of contact infection among susceptible individuals in the SIR model can be attained by incorporating the proportion of susceptible individuals (model A) or the inverse of proportion of recovered individuals (model B) in the force of infection of the SIR model. We simulated the conventional SIR model and both new SIR models under the exact condition with a basic reproduction ratio of 3.0 and an expected herd immunity threshold of 0.667 (66.7%). All three models performed likewise at the initial stage of an epidemic. In the conventional SIR model, the epidemic continued until 94.0 % of the population had been infected and recovered, way above the threshold for eradication and control of the epidemic. Both models A and B simulated the epidemic waning when 66.7% and 75.6% of the population had been infected, as a result of the herd effect. As a result, model A provides a better framework for modelling vaccine-induced herd or population immunity, while model B provides a better framework for modelling infection-induced herd or population immunity. Our results demonstrate how the new modelling framework overcomes the drawback of the conventional SIR model and attain the effect of herd immunity in modelling outputs, which is important for modelling infectious disease in a randomly mixed population, especially for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Rancang Bangun Sistem Penerimaan Dan Mutasi Barang Pada PDAM Tirta Kerta Raharja

Sensi Journal ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 236-246
Author(s):  
Ilamsyah Ilamsyah ◽  
Yulianto Yulianto ◽  
Tri Vita Febriani
Keyword(s):  
System Analysis ◽  
Object Oriented ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Visual Modeling ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Right ◽  
And Control ◽  
Web Based System ◽  
The Web

The right and appropriate system of receiving and transferring goods is needed by the company. In the process of receiving and transferring goods from the central warehouse to the branch warehouse at PDAM Tirta Kerta Raharja, Tangerang Regency, which is currently done manually is still ineffective and inaccurate because the Head of Subdivision uses receipt documents, namely PPBP and mutation of goods, namely MPPW in the form of paper as a submission media. The Head of Subdivision enters the data of receipt and mutation of goods manually and requires a relatively long time because at the time of demand for the transfer of goods the Head of Subdivision must check the inventory of goods in the central warehouse first. Therefore, it is necessary to hold a design of information systems for the receipt and transfer of goods from the central warehouse to a web-based branch warehouse that is already database so that it is more effective, efficient and accurate. With the web-based system of receiving and transferring goods that are already datatabed, it can facilitate the Head of Subdivision in inputing data on the receipt and transfer of goods and control of stock inventory so that the Sub Head of Subdivision can do it periodically to make it more effective, efficient and accurate. The method of data collection is done by observing, interviewing and studying literature from various previous studies, while the system analysis method uses the Waterfall method which aims to solve a problem and uses design methods with visual modeling that is object oriented with UML while programming using PHP and MySQL as a database.

EFEKTIVITAS METODE DEMONSTRASI DALAM MENINGKATKAN HASIL BELAJAR SISWA SEKOLAH MENENGAH KEJURUAN PADA PENGAJARAN SISTEM KOLOID

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Hamda Situmorang ◽  
Manihar Situmorang
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
High School Students ◽  
Abstract Concept ◽  
Vocational High School ◽  
School Students ◽  
Lecture Method ◽  
Colloid System ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Right ◽  
And Control

Abstract Implementation of demonstration method in the teaching of chemistry is assigned as the right strategy to improve students’ achievement as it is proved that the method can bring an abstract concept to reality in the class. The study is conducted to vocational high school students in SMKN1 Pargetteng getteng Sengkut Pakfak Barat at accademic year 2013. The teaching has been carried out three cycles on the teaching of chemistry topic of colloid system. In the study, the class is divided into two class, experiment class and control class. The demontration method is used to teach students in experimental class while the teaching in control class is conducted with lecture method. Both are evaluated by using multiple choise tests before and after the teaching procedures, and the ability of students to answer the problems are assigned as students’ achievements. The results showed that demonstration method improved students’ achievement in chemistry. The students in experimental class who are taughed with demonstration method (M=19.08±0.74) have higher achievements compare with control class (M=12.91±2.52), and both are significantly different (tcalculation 22.85 > ttable 1.66). The effectivity of demostration method in experimental class (97%) is found higer compare to conventional method in control class (91%).

administrasi ketatausahaan sekolah

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isra Revenia
Keyword(s):  
Information Needs ◽  
Control Functions ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Right ◽  
And Control

This article is made to know the destinantion and the administrasi functions of the school in order to assist the leader of an organazation in making decisions and doing the right thing, recording of such statements in addition to the information needs also pertains to the function of accountabilitty and control functions. Administrative administration is the activity of recording for everything that happens in the organization to be used as information for leaders. While the definition of administration is all processing activities that start from collecting (receiving), recording, processing, duplicating, minimizing and storing all the information of correspondence needed by the organization. Administration is as an activity to determine everything that happens in the organization, to be used as material for information by the leadership, which includes all activities ranging from manufacturing, managing, structuring to all the preparation of information needed by the organization.

Performance of 4G-LTE Communication and Navigation System in Blended Wing-Body UAS

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 9538-9542
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Communication ◽  
Line Of Sight ◽  
Multiple Factors ◽  
The World ◽  
New Type ◽  
Blended Wing Body ◽  
4G Lte ◽  
The Right ◽  
And Control ◽  
Technology Demonstrator

In vision of searching for the right Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) for a specific mission, there are multiple factors to be considered by the operator such as mission, endurance, type of payload and range of the telemetry and control. This research is focusing on extending control range of the UAS by using 4G-LTE network to enable beyond-line-of-sight flying for the commercial UAS. Major UAS such Global Hawk, Predator MQ-1 are able to fly thousands of kilometers by the use of satellite communication. However, the satellite communication annual license subscription can be very expensive. With this situation in mind, a new type of flight controller with 4G-LTE communication has been developed and tested. Throughout the research, blended-wing-body (BWB) Baseline B2S is used as the platform for technology demonstrator. Result from this analysis has proven that the proposed system is capable to control a UAS from as far as United Kingdom, with a latency less than 881 ms in average. The new added capability can potentially give the commercial UAS community a new horizon to be able to control their UAS from anywhere around the world with the availability of 4G-LTE connection

Hypertriglyceridemia: An Infrequent, Difficult-to-predict, Severe Metabolic and Vascular Problem Associated with Estrogen Administration

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 254-261
Author(s):  
Thomas F. Whayne
Keyword(s):  
Acute Pancreatitis ◽  
Severe Side Effect ◽  
Recurrent Acute Pancreatitis ◽  
Postmenopausal Symptoms ◽  
Severe Hypertriglyceridemia ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Cv Disease ◽  
The Right ◽  
And Control ◽  
Transdermal Route

Supplementary estrogen plays important roles for female patients as convenient birth control, relief of postmenopausal symptoms, and in the management of other selected problems. However, as is the case for essentially all medications, there are side effects. Short of a major pulmonary embolus, the most severe side effect of estrogen would appear to be sporadic, rare, and severe hypertriglyceridemia associated with acute pancreatitis. The occurrence of this fortunately rare problem usually happens in the presence of some preexisting and usually mild increase in triglycerides (TG). A case of chronic and severe recurrent acute pancreatitis is described in the introduction and the management was complete estrogen avoidance. Started close to menopause and continued for a relatively short period, estrogens may have some cardiovascular (CV) benefit but the general recommendation is not to prescribe them for CV disease prevention. Estrogens may contribute to decreased diabetes mellitus (DM) risk and control. Administration of estrogens by the transdermal route may decrease some problems such as venous thromboembolism (VTE) and elevation of TG. Administration of estrogen in the right situation brings significant benefit to the female patient but skillful, careful, and knowledgeable use is essential.

Right to Parental Care

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asha Bajpai
Keyword(s):  
Law Reform ◽  
Best Interest ◽  
Family Courts ◽  
Custody Of Children ◽  
The Family ◽  
Shared Parenting ◽  
The Right ◽  
A Minor ◽  
And Control ◽  
Physical Care

Custody refers to the physical care and control of a minor whereas guardianship is a wider term and includes rights and duties with respect to the care and control of minor’s person and property, and includes the right to make decisions relating to the minor. The present legal regime relating to guardianship and custody of children is discussed, including the Guardians and Wards Act, 1890, the Hindu Minority and Guardianship Act, 1956, the personal and matrimonial laws, and relevant provisions in the Family Courts Act and Protection of Women against Domestic Violence Act, 2005. The emerging concepts of shared parenting, joint custody, and the interparental child removal or abduction of child is included. There is review and analysis of some major reported judicial decisions. A comparative survey of international laws and trends has been done. Suggestions for law reform in the best interest of the child have been given.

The Effect of Reflexology on Lactation in Women Who Had Cesarean Section: A Randomized Controlled Pilot Study

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Sevde Aksu ◽  
Pelin Palas Karaca
Keyword(s):  
Pilot Study ◽  
Cesarean Section ◽  
Intervention Group ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Breast Pain ◽  
Randomized Controlled ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Right ◽  
Documentation Tool ◽  
And Control

<b><i>Aim:</i></b> The research was conducted as a randomized controlled pilot study to evaluate the effects of reflexology on lactation in mothers who delivered by cesarean section (CS). <b><i>Methods:</i></b> A single-blind randomized controlled experimental study was conducted with a total of 60 postpartum women in the reflexology application (<i>n</i> = 30) and control groups (<i>n</i> = 30). After the CS, the mothers in the control group were given approximately 3-h routine nursing care after recovering from the effects of anesthesia; the introductory information form was applied, and the Breastfeeding Charting System and Documentation Tool (LATCH) and visual analog scale (VAS) for the signs of the onset of lactation were implemented on the first and second days. Reflexology was applied to the women in the intervention group after an average of 3 h following the mother’s condition had become stable and she had recovered from the effects of anesthesia. Reflexology was applied a total of 20 min – 10 min for the right foot, 10 min for the left foot – twice a day with 8-h intervals on the first and second days after CS. After the last reflexology application, the LATCH and VAS for the signs of the onset of lactation were applied. <b><i>Results:</i></b> Of the women, 70% breastfed their babies within 60 min after delivery; 46.7% of the mothers received breastfeeding training and 81.7% needed support for breastfeeding after the CS. The LATCH breastfeeding scores of the women in the intervention group on both days were significantly higher compared to those of the women in the control group (<i>p</i> &#x3c; 0.001). On the first day after the CS, apart from breast pain, there was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of breast heat and breast tension (<i>p</i> &#x3e; 0.05). On the second day after the CS, apart from breast tension, there was no significant difference between the groups in terms of breast heat and breast pain (<i>p</i> &#x3c; 0.05). In the study, women in the intervention group were found to have higher scores in terms of all three symptoms compared to the control group (<i>p</i> &#x3c; 0.05). <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> In the study, it was determined that LATCH scores and signs of the onset of breastfeeding increased in the mothers who received reflexology after CS.

scholarly journals Comparative study of the areas of osteochondral defects produced in the femoral condyles of rabbits treated with gel of sugarcane biopolymer

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 383-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulo Cezar Vidal Carneiro de Albuquerque ◽  
José Lamartine de Andrade Aguiar ◽  
Saulo Monteiro dos Santos ◽  
Nicodemus Pontes Filho ◽  
Roberto José Vieira de Mello ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sugar Cane ◽  
Digital Camera ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Study Group ◽  
Osteochondral Defects ◽  
Control Groups ◽  
The Right ◽  
And Control ◽  
Natural Healing ◽  
Femoral Condyles

PURPOSE: To measure the healed areas of osteochondral defects produced in femoral condyles of rabbits filled with biopolymer sugar cane gel and to compare these with those of the control group at 90, 120 and 180 days. METHODS: A study was made of 16 New Zealand rabbits, 6 and 7 months old, weighing between 2 and 2.5 kg. Defects of 3.2 x 4 mm were made, with trephine, in the femoral condyles of the right and left knees. As to the study group defects of the medial and lateral condyles of the right knee were used which were filled with Biopolymer Sugar Cane Gel; as to the Control Group defects of the medial and lateral condyles of the left t knees were used which were left open for natural healing. The defects were analyzed at 90, 120 and 180 days after surgery. After euthanasia, the knees were removed and fixed in Bouin's solution for later digital photographic documentation with a digital camera. The areas healed were measured in both the study and control groups using the images obtained from an Image-J® program. Statistical analysis was conducted using the non-parametric Mann-Whitney test. RESULTS: There were no significant differences between the means of the healed areas in the study and control groups at 90, 120 and 180 days after surgery. CONCLUSION: The dimension of the healed areas of the defects treated with the biopolymer sugar-cane gel in the study group was similar to those of the control group, which healed naturally.

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