The Impact of Tariff Regulation on Potential Investor’s Decision in District Heating
The paper analyses the ways how long-term tariff regulation impacts on investment decision in district heating in Russia. Concessions in district heating gave us good chance to analyze impact of tariff regulation on the potential concessionaire decision who is choosing between agreements. The empirical analysis shows that potential concessionaire makes such decisions taking into account specific tariff parameters. The probability of attracting potential investor increases because of indicated volume of rate of return or including energy efficiency indicators; the ratio of operating expenses has negative effect on the probability. The growth rates of total revenue indicated for all years of the planned agreement has no effect on the probability. Potential concessionaire prefers to choose agreements, where the volume of investment commitments is lower, because he is not ready to assume ambitious commitments in the district heating in the current system of regulation.