Possibilities and limitations of the use of bankruptcy prediction models for insolvency prevention

2021 ◽  
pp. 73-94
Author(s):  
Olga Lvova
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Organizational Factors ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Qualitative Variables ◽  
The Impact

The paper provides the solution to the problem of an integrated classification of existing bankruptcy prediction based on the content analysis of 270 relevant foreign and Russian publications issued within a period of 1910-2020. The author identifies two main groups of models– normative and positive, with the latter categorized into expert, mixed and objective including traditional statistical models and artificial intelligent techniques; and considers the specific features of certain predicting models, their advantages and disadvantages. He then reveals the economic content of such models and the set of ratios applied for identifying company’s financial distress with the following conclusions: approaches to the variables selection are rarely justified, indicators are usually borrowed from previous models or generated automatically by the database configuration; the accounting approach to bankruptcy forecasting based on financial ratios prevails and has serious limitations for Russian companies; the most significant market, value and qualitative variables indicating a decline in the business financial stability are highlighted. Significant limitations of the general use of bankruptcy prediction models for making decisions aimed at insolvency prevention are identified: the inability to anticipate the impact of informal factors that are irregular, unable to extrapolate, and affect companies in different ways; the need to take into account the economic conditions of the national economy, financial reporting standards, and the level of availability of diverse data; the impossibility of creating a universal indicative basis to identify decline of sustainability of any business due to the high volatility of operating conditions in Russia. Bayesian methods and nowcasting, as well as the development of forecasting models for certain industries, are promising areas for the development of modern approaches to bankruptcy prediction, but the fundamental activity for preventing insolvency is not forecasting by models, but the implementation of continuous monitoring of the overall business performance in relation to influencing market, operational, investment, financial, managerial and organizational factors, taking into account significant qualitative variables.

Possibilities and limitations of the use of bankruptcy prediction models for insolvency prevention

2021 ◽  
pp. 73-94
Author(s):  
Olga Lvova
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Organizational Factors ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Qualitative Variables ◽  
The Impact

The paper provides the solution to the problem of an integrated classification of existing bankruptcy prediction based on the content analysis of 270 relevant foreign and Russian publications issued within a period of 1910-2020. The author identifies two main groups of models– normative and positive, with the latter categorized into expert, mixed and objective including traditional statistical models and artificial intelligent techniques; and considers the specific features of certain predicting models, their advantages and disadvantages. He then reveals the economic content of such models and the set of ratios applied for identifying company’s financial distress with the following conclusions: approaches to the variables selection are rarely justified, indicators are usually borrowed from previous models or generated automatically by the database configuration; the accounting approach to bankruptcy forecasting based on financial ratios prevails and has serious limitations for Russian companies; the most significant market, value and qualitative variables indicating a decline in the business financial stability are highlighted. Significant limitations of the general use of bankruptcy prediction models for making decisions aimed at insolvency prevention are identified: the inability to anticipate the impact of informal factors that are irregular, unable to extrapolate, and affect companies in different ways; the need to take into account the economic conditions of the national economy, financial reporting standards, and the level of availability of diverse data; the impossibility of creating a universal indicative basis to identify decline of sustainability of any business due to the high volatility of operating conditions in Russia. Bayesian methods and nowcasting, as well as the development of forecasting models for certain industries, are promising areas for the development of modern approaches to bankruptcy prediction, but the fundamental activity for preventing insolvency is not forecasting by models, but the implementation of continuous monitoring of the overall business performance in relation to influencing market, operational, investment, financial, managerial and organizational factors, taking into account significant qualitative variables.

Unfunded Public Employee Health Care Benefits and GASB No. 45

2007 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 245-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth K. Keating ◽  
Eric S. Berman
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
Employment Benefits ◽  
Care Plans ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Government Accounting ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) recently released Statement No. 45, Accounting and Financial Reporting by Employers for Post-Employment Benefits Other Than Pensions and its companion Statement No. 43 for pooled stand-alone health care plans, which will profoundly affect American governmental finance. The goal of this article is to encourage governments to consider carefully a full range of options in funding and restructuring other post-employment benefits (OPEB). This article will review Statement No. 45's potential impact on governments and review existing disclosures in financial reports as well as bond offering statements. The article will discuss the statement's impact on budgets and governmental operations, including collective bargaining. Funding options under Statement No. 45 will be detailed, including the advantages and disadvantages of irrevocable trusts and OPEB bonds. The article will also discuss the impact of Medicare Part D subsidies received by governments, as well as the bond rating implications of policy decisions surrounding OPEB. As the largest government entities are just now implementing GASB Statement No. 45, estimates of the magnitude of unfunded OPEB liabilities are limited as are the strategies likely to be adopted to cover these obligations. This article offers a summary of the unfunded OPEB liabilities reported by states and major cities and suggests some measures for assessing the ability of these entities to address these costs.

scholarly journals Family Businesses in Global Economy and Evaluating their Financial Health Using Bankruptcy Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 03031
Author(s):  
Maria Truchlikova
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Family Businesses ◽  
Financial Health

Research background: Predicting and assessing financial health should be one of the most important activities for each business especially in context of turbulent business environment and global economy. The financial sustainability of family businesses has a direct and significant influence on the development and growth of the economy because they still represent the backbone of the economy and play an important role in national economies worldwide accounting. Purpose of the article: We used in this article the financial distress and bankruptcy prediction models for assessing financial status of family businesses in agricultural sector. The aim of the paper is to compare models developed by using three different methods to identify a model with the highest predictive accuracy of financial distress and assess financial health. Methods: The data was obtained from Finstat database. For assessing the financial health of selected family businesses bankruptcy models were used: Chrastinova’s CH-Index, Gurcik’s G-Index (defined for Slovak agricultural enterprises) and Altman Z-score. Findings & Value added: This article summarizes existing models and compares results of assessing financial health of family businesses using three different models.

Corporate Governance Factors and Auditor Going Concern Assessments

2005 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Parker ◽  
Gary F. Peters ◽  
Howard F. Turetsky
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Audit Committee ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Going Concern ◽  
Sarbanes Oxley ◽  
Auditing Standards ◽  
Distressed Firms ◽  
The Impact

When making going concern assessments, Statement on Auditing Standards No. 59 (Auditing Standards Board 1988) directs auditors to consider the nature of management's plans and ability to mitigate periods of financial distress successfully. Corporate governance factors reflect attributes of control, oversight, and/or support of management's plans and actions intended to overcome financial distress. Correspondingly, this study investigates the impact of certain corporate governance factors on the likelihood of a going concern modification. Using survival analysis techniques, we examine a sample of 161 financially distressed firms for the time period 1988–1996. We find that auditors are twice as likely to issue a going concern modification when the CEO is replaced. We also find that going concern modifications are inversely associated with blockholder ownership. We also confirm Carcello and Neal's (2000) findings with respect to the association between an independent audit committee and an increased likelihood of modification. In a repeated events setting, we find that insider ownership and board independence are inversely associated with repeated going concern modifications. Our study concludes by proposing implications for the current financial reporting environment (including the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act of 2002) and future research avenues.

scholarly journals Determinants of financial distress in the European air transport industry: The moderating effect of being a flag-carrier

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0259149
Author(s):  
Yin Shi ◽  
Xiaoni Li
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Air Transport ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Aviation Industry ◽  
Air Transport Industry ◽  
Low Efficiency ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact

Due to the COVID-induced global collapse in demand for air travel, the year 2020 was a catastrophic one for the aviation industry. A dramatic drop in operating revenues along with continuing fixed expenses drained the cash reserves of airlines, with consequent risks of financial distress and, potentially, even of bankruptcy. Flag-carriers are a special group in the airline business—they are considered to have privileges in terms of the support given by governments while, on the other hand, are often viewed as having low efficiency and performance. This study aims to estimate for European airlines the interaction effect of being a flag-carrier (flagship) with the relationship between leverage, liquidity, profitability, and the degree of financial distress. Findings obtained from analysing 99 European airlines over a period of ten years, indicate that the negative influence of leverage on financial stability is higher in the case of flag carriers (flagship). The impact of liquidity and profitability on financial health is more positive for flagship than for non-flagship carriers. These findings are not limited to contributing to the existing literature, but also have significant practical implications for executives, managers, and policy makers in the European air transport sector.

scholarly journals Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction in Conditions of Slovak Republic

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 08017
Author(s):  
Filip Rebetak ◽  
Viera Bartosova
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Important Place ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis

Research background: Prediction of bankruptcy has an important place in financial analysis of an organization in the globalized economy. Ever since the first publication of a paper on bankruptcy prediction in 1932, the field of bankruptcy prediction was attracting researchers and scholars internationally. Over the years, there have been a great many models conceived in many different countries, such as Altman’s Z score or Ohlson’s model for use for managers and investors to assess the financial position of a company. Globalization in last few decades has made it even more important for all stakeholders involved to know the financial shape of the company and predict the possibility of bankruptcy. Purpose of the article: We aim in this article to examine the financial distress and bankruptcy prediction models used or developed for Slovakia to provide an overview of possibilities adjusted to specific conditions of the Slovak Republic in context of globalization. We will also look at the possibility of use of these prediction models for assessing financial status of non-profit organizations in the Slovak Republic. Methods: We will use analysis and synthesis of current research and theoretical background to compare existing models and their use. Findings & Value added: We hope to contribute with this paper to the theoretical knowledge in this field by summarizing and comparing existing models used.

Does intellectual capital help predict bankruptcy?

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 321-337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Velia Gabriella Cenciarelli ◽  
Giulio Greco ◽  
Marco Allegrini
Keyword(s):  
Performance Measures ◽  
Intellectual Capital ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore whether intellectual capital affects the probability that a particular firm will default. The authors also test whether including intellectual capital performance in bankruptcy prediction models improves their predictive ability. Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of US public companies from the period stretching from 1985 to 2015, the authors test whether intellectual capital performance reduces the probability of bankruptcy. The authors use the VAIC as an aggregate measure of corporate intellectual capital performance. Findings The findings show that the intellectual capital performance is negatively associated with the probability of default. The findings also indicate that the bankruptcy prediction models that include intellectual capital have a superior predictive ability over the standard models. Research limitations/implications This paper contributes to prior research on intellectual capital and firm performance. To the best of the knowledge, this is the first study to show that the benefits of intellectual capital extend from superior performance to long-term financial stability. The research can also contribute to bankruptcy studies. By using a time frame covering decades, the findings suggest that intellectual capital performance measures can be included in bankruptcy prediction models and can effectively complement traditional performance measures. Originality/value This paper highlights that intellectual capital is associated with long-term financial stability and a lower bankruptcy risk. Firms realising the potential of their intellectual capital can produce a virtuous circle between higher performance and greater financial stability.

scholarly journals Holistic view on corporate bankruptcy causes: systematization of causes and requirements to building bankruptcy prediction models

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (4) ◽  
pp. 120-129
Author(s):  
Tomas Kliestik
Keyword(s):  
Market Economy ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Financial Health ◽  
Holistic View ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
A Chain ◽  
The Impact

The article presents the research of bbusinesses’ life cycle as complex organisms that do not exist in isolation, but in mutual interaction with other subjects operating in the national economy, other businesses, non-financial or financial corporations, government agencies or customers and households. The essence of the crisis as the motive force of any market economy is revealed. The causes of bankruptcy of enterprises are considered. It has been stated that bankruptcy of the enterprise can result in a chain reaction with negative consequences for all economic entities. Every economy in the world (not only market economy) is confronted with failures or bankruptcy of business entities. There exist a variety of forms, manifestations and consequences of business failures. There has been substantiated the importance of the research, the essentiality of a detailed analysis of methods of bankruptcy prediction models, i.e. determining probable development of the corporate principles in the coming years. In the centrally planned economies, the state is responsible for all the consequences; in the market economy they directly affect all entities interrelated with the enterprise. Each group involved applies a wide range of tools, algorithms and methods, but their aim is identical: to predict the future development of the corporate financial health. There appear questions about termination of activity of a particular enterprise due to its future bankruptcy, shutting down because of bad decisions, or the impact of endogenous and exogenous factors. Development of the algorithms and methods is not possible without a detailed, almost holistic knowledge of the causes of corporate bankruptcies. A methodological toolkit based on numerous studies of specialists has been developed for building bankruptcy models.

scholarly journals A Review of Financial Distress Prediction Models: Logistic Regression and Multivariate Discriminant Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 13-23
Author(s):  
Ehsan ul Hassan ◽  
Zaemah Zainuddin ◽  
Sabariah Nordin
Keyword(s):  
Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Early Prediction ◽  
Multivariate Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Financial Distress Prediction ◽  
Distress Prediction ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Multivariate Discriminant

In corporate finance, the early prediction of financial distress is considered more important as another occurrence of business risks. The study presents a review of literature for early prediction of financial bankruptcy. It contributes to the formation of a systematic review of the literature regarding previous studies done in the field of bankruptcy. It addresses two most commonly used financial distress prediction models, i.e. multivariate discriminant analysis and logit. Models are discussed with their advantages and disadvantages. After methodological review, it seems that logit regression model (LRM) is more advantageous than multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA) for better prediction of financial bankruptcy. However, accurate prediction of bankruptcy is beneficial to improve the regulation of companies, to form policies for companies and to take any precautionary measures if any crisis is about to come in future.

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