Diagnostic and age composition of excess mortality associated with the New Year holidays in Russia

Statistics show that in many countries of the world holidays are associated with an increase in morbidity and mortality; this is especially pronounced during the New Year and Christmas period. This article presents an estimate of the excess number of deaths in Russia during the January holidays in 2011–2019 by main classes of causes of death and by age groups. The study relies on the Rosstat dataset of 16.83 million individual non-personalized death records referring to 2011–2019. The authors of the paper estimate excess mortality for each cause and age group as the difference between actually observed mortality and the LOWESS moving average calculated for non-holiday period, extrapolated to the holidays. The calculations showed that the period of excess mortality lasted from January 1 to January 22 with a maximum on January 1. Over 22 days, excess mortality in 2011–2019 amounted to 89.0 thousand cases or 8.4% in relation to mortality on non-holidays; excess mortality on January 1 amounted to 11.4 thousand cases. In contrast to mortality from diseases of the circulatory, respiratory, and digestive systems, the contribution of which to excess mortality was proportional to their prevalence on non-holidays, proportion of excess mortality from external causes almost doubled (23.6% versus 12.7 % on weekdays). January 1 saw the highest excess mortality from external causes, including that of alcohol poisoning, homicide, and suicide, in all age groups; on January 2 the highest increase was observed in mortality from diseases of the circulatory system; on January 9 and 10 — from the pathologies of the respiratory and digestive systems. January holidays in Russia are associated with significant excess mortality, primarily as a result of the abuse of strong alcoholic beverages. Informing the population about the fatal consequences of such a consumption regime and a decrease in the availability of strong alcohol, the maximum sales of which falls on December, can reduce the damage during the January holidays.

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Excess mortality and potential undercounting of COVID-19 deaths by demographic group in Ohio

10.1101/2020.06.28.20141655 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Troy Quast ◽

Ross Andel

Keyword(s):

Health Care Providers ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

Age Groups ◽

Accurate Information ◽

Older Individuals ◽

Care Providers ◽

Excess Number ◽

External Causes ◽

Demographic Subgroups ◽

Excess Deaths

AbstractBackgroundThere are significant gaps in our understanding of the mortality effects of COVID-19 due to evolving diagnosis criteria, shortages of testing supplies, and challenges faced by physicians in treating patients in crisis environments. Accurate information on the number of deaths caused by COVID-19, both population wide and for demographic subgroups, is vital for policy makers and health care providers.MethodsWe performed a retrospective study of weekly data for Ohio, a large American state. To estimate expected mortality in 2020 we employed data from 2010 through 2019, adjusted for secular trends and seasonality. We estimated excess mortality as the number of observed deaths less the number of expected deaths. We conducted the analysis for the entire population and by gender, race, age, and county of residence.FindingsWe estimated 1,485 (95% CI 680-2,345) excess all-cause deaths in Ohio from March 15, 2020 through May 23, 2020. When limited to deaths due to natural causes, the estimated excess number of deaths increased to 2,504 (95% CI 1,633-3,221), reflecting the countervailing effect of a decrease in deaths due to external causes. While the largest number excess of deaths was observed in the 80+ age group, excess deaths comprised 45.3% (95% CI 21.8-60.9) of observed deaths in the groups corresponding to ages between 20 and 49 years old. Our estimate of 729 (95% CI 355-966) excess deaths for this group substantially exceeds the reported number of COVID-19 deaths of 51. We found elevated excess deaths for older individuals, blacks, and males.InterpretationOur methodology addressed some of the challenges of estimating the number of deaths caused by COVID-19. Our finding of high proportional levels of excess deaths among younger age groups suggests that increases in the infection rates for this cohort may have a greater mortality impact than expected.FundingNone.

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Mortality from external causes in Russia over half a century

Демографическое обозрение ◽

10.17323/demreview.v1i5.3174 ◽

2015 ◽

pp. 85-108

Author(s):

Ekaterina Kvasha ◽

Tatiana Kharkova ◽

Valeriy Yumaguzin

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Causes Of Death ◽

Circulatory System ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Large Contribution ◽

Mortality Trends ◽

Undetermined Intent ◽

External Causes Of Death ◽

Excess Number ◽

External Causes

The article discusses long-term mortality trends (since 1956) from external causes of death in Russia. Russia has long lagged behind developed countries in this domain. The level of mortality from external causes of death remains high and its structure is still archaic with large contribution of homicides, alcohol poisoning and injuries of undetermined intent. Excess number of deaths from life tables of Russia and Western European countries is compared. It is shown that in Russia the greatest excess losses are associated with mortality from poisonings among both sexes, suicide among men and homicide among women. Mortality from external causes, along with mortality from diseases of the circulatory system, has had a significant impact on life expectancy. In general, over the period 1956-2012 the increase in mortality from external causes in the 15-64 age group reduced life expectancy by 2.6 years for males and 0.7 years for females. The decline, starting in 2003, of mortality from external causes of death has slightly reduced the gap between Russia and developed countries, bringing the current Russian level closer to those levels reached in Russia in the mid-1960s and 1980s. However, given the fluctuations of mortality from external causes, it is premature to say whether the current decline in mortality is robust.

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THE US MIDLIFE MORTALITY CRISIS CONTINUES: INCREASED DEATH RATES FROM CAUSES OTHER THAN COVID-19 DURING 2020

10.1101/2021.05.17.21257241 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Dana A Glei

Keyword(s):

Indirect Effect ◽

Causes Of Death ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

National Level ◽

Age Groups ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Negative Binomial Regression Model ◽

Age Group ◽

External Causes

COVID-19 has prematurely ended many lives, particularly among the oldest Americans, but the pandemic has also had an indirect effect on health and non-COVID mortality among the working-age population, who have suffered the brunt of the economic consequences. This analysis quantifies the changes in mortality for selected causes of death during the COVID 19 pandemic up to December 31, 2020, and investigates whether the levels of excess mortality varied by age group. The data comprise national-level monthly death counts by age group and selected causes of death from January 1999 to December 2020 combined with annual mid-year population estimates over the same period. A negative binomial regression model was used to estimate monthly cause-specific excess mortality during 2020 controlling for the pre-pandemic mortality patterns by age, calendar year, and season. To determine whether excess mortality varied by age, we tested interactions between broad age groups and dichotomous indicators for the pre-pandemic (January-February) and the pandemic (March-December) portions of 2020. In relative terms, excess all cause mortality (including COVID-19) peaked in December at ages 25-44 (RR=1.58 relative to 2019, 95% CI=1.50-1.68). Excluding COVID-19, all of the excess mortality occurred between ages 15 and 64, peaking in July among those aged 25-44 (RR=1.45, 95% CI 1.37-1.53). We find notable excess mortality during March-December 2020 for many causes (i.e., influenza/pneumonia, other respiratory diseases, diabetes, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, kidney disease, and external causes), but almost exclusively among young and midlife (aged 25-74) Americans. For those aged 75 and older, there was little excess mortality from causes other than COVID-19 except from Alzheimer's disease. Excess non-COVID mortality may have resulted, at least partly, from incorrectly classified COVID-19 deaths, but neither misclassification nor an atypical flu season that disproportionately affected younger people is likely to explain the increase in mortality from external causes, which was evident even during January-February 2020. Exploratory analyses suggest that drug-related mortality may be driving the early rise in external mortality. The growth in drug overdoses well before there was any hint of a pandemic suggests it is probably not solely an indirect effect of COVID-19, although the pandemic may have exacerbated the problem.

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Characteristics of mortality in the Orenburg region population in 2011-2017

Science and Innovations in Medicine ◽

10.35693/2500-1388-2020-5-2-99-104 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

pp. 99-104

Author(s):

Evgenii L. Borschuk ◽

Dmitrii N. Begun ◽

Tatyana V. Begun

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Causes Of Death ◽

Age Groups ◽

Circulatory System ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Female Population ◽

Orenburg Region ◽

The Third ◽

Circulatory System Diseases ◽

External Causes

Objectives - to study the mortality indicators, their dynamics and structure, in the population of the Orenburg region in the period of 2011-2017. Material and methods. The study was conducted using the data from the territorial authority of statistics in the Orenburg region in the period from 2011 to 2017. The analytical, demographic and statistical methods were implemented for the study of the demographic indicators. Results. Cities and municipal settlements of the Orenburg region with high mortality indicators were included in the second and fourth clusters during the cluster analysis. The first and third clusters included cities and municipal settlements with an average mortality. The most favorable position has the Orenburg area with the lowest mortality rate in the region in 2017 - 8.4%. The dynamics of mortality rates among the male and female population tends to decrease, more pronounced dynamics is in men. Though, the male population is characterized by higher mortality rates in all age groups. The leading position among the causes of death is taken by diseases of the circulatory system (46.3% of the total mortality). The second position is occupied by tumors (17.2%), the third - by external causes (8.4%). Mortality from circulatory system diseases and from external causes has reduced. The dynamics of mortality from tumors does not change significantly. The rank of leading causes of death is not identical in the clusters: in the third and fourth clusters, the other causes occupy the second place in the structure of mortality, while tumors occupy the third. Conclusion. In the Orenburg region, the mortality rate is higher than overage in the Russian Federation by 0.9 per 1000 people. The study revealed significant territorial differences in the mortality rates. In general, the mortality among men in all age groups is higher than the mortality of women. The mortality rate from diseases of the circulatory system plays the leading role in the structure of mortality, but has the tendency for decline. Until 2006, the mortality from external causes ranked the second place, now the second place is taken by death from tumors The mortality from external causes is decreasing; mortality from tumors does not change significantly. The obtained results could be used by local authorities in developing the program of public health protection and assessing its effectiveness.

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Menns overdødelighet

Norsk Epidemiologi ◽

10.5324/nje.v9i2.471 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Hans Th. Waaler

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Health Services ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

Age Groups ◽

English Summary ◽

Font Size ◽

Adult Age ◽

Official Report ◽

Long Time ◽

The Difference

SAMMENDRAGForventet levealder for kvinner er ca. 6 år lenger enn for menn, en forskjell som svarer til en livsvarigdobbel dødelighet for menn. Ratioen mellom kvinners og menns forventede levealder var konstant fra1840 til 1950. I de siste 50 år har ratioen økt betydelig og varierende med alderen. De siste ti årene harigjen ratioen vært fallende. I NOU 13:1999 om Kvinners helse i Norge framheves en langvarig diskrimineringmot kvinner i forskning og i helsetjenestens møte med kvinner som et problem. Hvis det erriktig så kan man neppe si at det har gitt mennene en fordel mht. helse.Waaler HT. The excess mortality of men in Norway. Nor J Epidemiol 1999; 9 (2): 97-100. ENGLISH SUMMARYThe excess mortality of men has been observed for a long time and figures are presented from Norwaysince 1850. The ratio between females and males as to life expectancy was rather constant from themiddle of the last century up to about 1950. For the last 50 years the ratio has increased conciderablyand differently for the varying age groups. A recent Official Report on Females' Health in Norwayunderscores the discrimination against women from the medical research and the health services overthe generations. The increasing gap in life expectancy between females and males doesn’t support thisclaim or at least doesn’t seem to have given the males an advantage. One consequence of the differencein mortality is the widow/widower ratio which takes the value of about four in all adult age groups.

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Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Croatia

Stanovnistvo ◽

10.2298/stnv2101001c ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 59 (1) ◽

pp. 1-16

Author(s):

Ivan Cipin ◽

Dario Mustac ◽

Petra Medjimurec

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Poisson Regression ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

Age Groups ◽

Poisson Regression Model ◽

Decomposition Techniques ◽

Expected Number ◽

The Difference ◽

Age And Sex ◽

Related Mortality

The main goal of this paper is to assess the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Croatia. We estimate two effects of the pandemic on mortality: (1) excess mortality during 2020 and (2) the age- and cause-specific components of life expectancy decline in 2020. We calculate excess mortality in 2020 as the difference between the registered number of deaths in 2020 and the expected number of deaths from a Poisson regression model based on weekly death counts and population exposures by age and sex from 2016 to 2019. Using decomposition techniques, we estimate age- and cause-specific components (distinguishing COVID-19-related deaths from deaths from other causes) of life expectancy decline in 2020. Our results show that excess mortality in 2020 almost entirely results from the second, autumn-winter wave of the epidemic in Croatia. Expectedly, we find the highest excess in deaths in older age groups. In Croatia, life expectancy in 2020 fell by almost eight months for men and about seven months for women. This decline is mostly attributable to COVID-19-related mortality in older ages, especially among men.

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Excess mortality in Guadeloupe and Martinique, islands of the French West Indies, during the chikungunya epidemic of 2014

10.1101/228445 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

A. R. R. Freitas ◽

P. M. Alarcon-Elbal ◽

M. R. Donalisio

Keyword(s):

Excess Mortality ◽

Case Reports ◽

Age Groups ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Population Total ◽

Mortality And Morbidity ◽

Pearson Coefficient ◽

The Difference ◽

The Impact

AbstractIn some chikugunya epidemics, deaths are not fully captured by the traditional surveillance system, based on case reports and death reports. This is a time series study to evaluate the excess of mortality associated with epidemic of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in Guadeloupe and Martinique, Antilles, 2014. The population (total 784,097 inhabitants) and mortality data estimated by sex and age were accessed at the Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques - France. Age adjusted mortality rates were calculated also in Reunion, Indian Ocean for comparison. Epidemiological data on CHIKV (cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) were obtained in the official epidemiological reports of the Cellule de Institut de Veille Sanitaire - France. The excess of deaths for each month in 2014 and 2015 was the difference between the expected and observed deaths for all age groups, considering the 99% confidence interval threshold. Pearson coefficient of correlation between monthly excess of deaths and reported cases of chikungunya show a strong correlation (R = 0.81, p <0.005), also with a 1-month lag (R = 0.87, p <0.001), and between monthly rates of hospitalization for CHIKV and the excess of deaths with a delay of 1 month (R = 0.87, p <0.0005).The peak of the epidemic occurred in the month with the highest mortality, returning to normal soon after the end of the CHIKV epidemic. The overall mortality estimated by this method (639 deaths) was about 4 times greater than that obtained through death declarations (160 deaths). Excess mortality increased with age. Although etiological diagnosis of all deaths associated with CHIKV infection is not possible, already well-known statistical tools can contribute to an evaluation of the impact of this virus on the mortality and morbidity in the different age groups.

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Age Differences in Eye Movements During Reading: Degenerative Problems or Compensatory Strategy?

European Psychologist ◽

10.1027/1016-9040/a000344 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 24 (4) ◽

pp. 297-311

Author(s):

José David Moreno ◽

José A. León ◽

Lorena A. M. Arnal ◽

Juan Botella

Keyword(s):

Eye Movements ◽

Eye Movement ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Age Groups ◽

Behavioral Changes ◽

Aging Effects ◽

Movement Data ◽

Sentence Reading ◽

The Difference ◽

Eye Movements During Reading

Abstract. We report the results of a meta-analysis of 22 experiments comparing the eye movement data obtained from young ( Mage = 21 years) and old ( Mage = 73 years) readers. The data included six eye movement measures (mean gaze duration, mean fixation duration, total sentence reading time, mean number of fixations, mean number of regressions, and mean length of progressive saccade eye movements). Estimates were obtained of the typified mean difference, d, between the age groups in all six measures. The results showed positive combined effect size estimates in favor of the young adult group (between 0.54 and 3.66 in all measures), although the difference for the mean number of fixations was not significant. Young adults make in a systematic way, shorter gazes, fewer regressions, and shorter saccadic movements during reading than older adults, and they also read faster. The meta-analysis results confirm statistically the most common patterns observed in previous research; therefore, eye movements seem to be a useful tool to measure behavioral changes due to the aging process. Moreover, these results do not allow us to discard either of the two main hypotheses assessed for explaining the observed aging effects, namely neural degenerative problems and the adoption of compensatory strategies.

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Effects of Musical Activities in Forest on Young Children's Nature-Friendly Attitude, Character, and Musical Creativity - Focused on the Difference Depending on the Age Composition of the Group -

Korean Music Education Society ◽

10.30775/kmes.48.2.05 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 48 (2) ◽

pp. 85-113

Author(s):

Hea-Sook Jang ◽

Hyoung-Shin Park

Keyword(s):

Age Composition ◽

Musical Creativity ◽

The Difference ◽

Musical Activities

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Study of functional state of microcirculatory channel system in periodontal tissues in persons of different age groups

Стоматология детского возраста и профилактика ◽

10.33925/1683-3031-2020-20-2-88-94 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (2) ◽

pp. 88-94

Author(s):

L. Yu. Orekhova ◽

A. A. Petrov ◽

E. S. Loboda ◽

I. V. Berezkina ◽

K. V. Shadrina

Keyword(s):

Functional State ◽

Age Groups ◽

Peripheral Resistance ◽

Circulatory System ◽

Structural Features ◽

Periodontal Tissues ◽

Non Invasive ◽

Age Related ◽

Group 12 ◽

Therapeutic Measures

Relevance. The study of age-related features of microcirculation in periodontal tissues, using non-invasive functional research methods, allows us to develop the optimal range of therapeutic measures, as well as form a “personalized therapeutic case”.Purpose. Study of the functional state of the microvasculature in the tissues of the parodont in individuals of various age groups.Materials and methods. A standard dental examination of 80 patients was carried out, the sample of participants was ranked in 4 groups by age: 1 group – 12 years old, 2 group – 15 years old, 3 group – from 16 to 18 years old, 4 group – from 22 to 24 years old. Hygiene and periodontal indices were determined for all patients, such as papillarymarginal-alveolar (PMA) in the Parma modification, the Mulleman bleeding index in the Cowell modification (SBI), and the simplified Green Vermillion index of oral hygiene (OHI–s), caries intensity indicators for a permanent bite (CPI), as well as ultrasound dopplerography of periodontal tissues using the apparatus "Minimax-Doppler-K".Results. When studying microcirculation in periodontal tissues, distinctive characteristics of linear (Vas) and volumetric (Qas) blood flow rates, as well as indicators of pulsation indices (PI) and peripheral resistance (RI) in people of different age groups were recorded.Conclusions. This study confirms the presence of various hemodynamic indicators of periodontal tissues in the studied groups, which is due to structural features of the circulatory system in age periods.

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