Fingerprint-Based Attribution Study of Climatic Changes in the Hai River Basin of China

2012 ◽  
Vol 518-523 ◽  
pp. 5798-5804
Author(s):  
Xiang Yi Ding ◽  
Yang Wen Jia
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Sudden Change ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
The Past ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Many observational facts and studies have shown that the climatic conditions in the Hai River Basin, which is the political and cultural centre of China, changed significantly over last half of the 20th century. This study attempts to evaluate the variability of climatic elements such as precipitation and temperature in the basin based on observed meteorological data, and the temporal variations and sudden changes of precipitation and temperature during past 40 years (1961-2000) are analyzed combining moving-average and linear regression with Mann-Kendall method. In addition, the observed climatic changes are attributed to different factors including natural variability and anthropogenic forcing using the fingerprint-based attribution method. The results indicate that: 1) during 1961-2000, the precipitation slightly decreased and the estimated sudden change time was 1965, the temperature significantly increased and the estimated sudden change time was 1964; 2) natural climate variability may be the factors responsible for the observed precipitation changes during the past 40 years in the basin, while anthropogenic forcing may be the main factors responsible for the observed temperature changes during the past 40 years in the basin.

Characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the Daqing River Basin

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yufei Jiao ◽  
Jia Liu ◽  
Chuanzhe Li ◽  
Qingtai Qiu ◽  
Wei Wang
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Sudden Change ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Periodic Analysis ◽  
Main Period ◽  
Wavelet Variance ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature ◽  
Periodic Changes

<p>The statistical characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the Daqing River Basin from 1980 to 2015 are analyzed, including the analysis of the homogeneity, trend, mutation and periodicity. Among them, the analysis of homogeneity is based on the method of cumulative value. The trend analysis adopts the methods of moving average, M-K test and R/S. M-K test is also used for the mutation analysis. The wavelet transform is used in the periodic analysis to draw the contour of real part and modulus of precipitation and temperature, as well as the map of the wavelet variance and the main period trend. The results show that the precipitation in the Daqing River Basin from 1980 to 2015 is uniform and has a significant upward trend, and has a sudden change in 2008. As for the periodicity, there are three kinds of periodic changes in 22-32 years, 8-16 years and 3-7 years. In the 22-32 year scale, there are two quasi oscillations of the dry and wet alternation, and four quasi oscillations in the 8-16 year scale. In the graph of the wavelet variance, the peak corresponds to the time scale of 28 years, which indicates that the oscillation of 28 years is the strongest, which is the first main period of precipitation change. From 1980 to 2015, the temperature in the Daqing River Basin is also uniform, and has an obvious upward trend, and has a sudden change in 1992. As for the periodicity, there are three kinds of periodic change, 5-10 years, 14-20 years and 25-32 years, respectively. In the 25-32 year scale, there are two quasi oscillations of dry and wet alternation, and three quasi oscillations in the 14-20 year scale. There are three obvious peaks in the map of wavelet variance, which correspond to the time scales of 28 years, 18 years and 8 years in turn.</p>

scholarly journals Climate Change and Conflict

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 343-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vally Koubi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Research ◽  
General Effect ◽  
Substantial Agreement ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
The Past ◽  
Level Of Economic Development

The link between climate change and conflict has been discussed intensively in academic literature during the past decade. This review aims to provide a clearer picture of what the research community currently has to say with regard to this nexus. It finds that the literature has not detected a robust and general effect linking climate to conflict onset. Substantial agreement exists that climatic changes contribute to conflict under some conditions and through certain pathways. In particular, the literature shows that climatic conditions breed conflict in fertile grounds: in regions dependent on agriculture and in combination and interaction with other socioeconomic and political factors such as a low level of economic development and political marginalization. Future research should continue to investigate how climatic changes interact with and/or are conditioned by socioeconomic, political, and demographic settings to cause conflict and uncover the causal mechanisms that link these two phenomena.

scholarly journals Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel

2015 ◽  
Vol 371 ◽  
pp. 195-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Leauthaud ◽  
J. Demarty ◽  
B. Cappelaere ◽  
M. Grippa ◽  
L. Kergoat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Model ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
The Past ◽  
Precipitation Regimes ◽  
Sahel Region ◽  
Precipitation Changes

Abstract. Rainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and cultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of Central Sahel. In a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and predicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. Yet, it remains challenging to project future climatic conditions in West Africa since there is no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations coming from climate models. The Sahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years that can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water cycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. The objective of this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to highly variable climatic regimes in Central Sahel using historical climate records and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a vegetation model that, when combined, simulated the Sahelian water, energy and vegetation cycles. To do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term climate series in Niamey, Republic of Niger, in which three precipitation regimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for the driest period compared to the wettest period. Two temperature scenarios (+2 and +4 °C) consistent with future warming scenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual future 20-year climate time series. Simulations by the two coupled models forced by these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and its components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases in transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with highest precipitation. Such climatic changes also strongly impacted soil temperature and moisture. This study illustrates the potential of using the strong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand potential future climate variations.

scholarly journals The Transformation of Agro-Climatic Resources of the Altai Region under Changing Climate Conditions

Agriculture ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Maximova ◽  
Komali Kantamaneni ◽  
Gennady Morkovkin ◽  
Darya Arnaut ◽  
Louis Rice
Keyword(s):  
Growing Season ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Growing Season Length ◽  
Altai Region ◽  
The Past

This research examines the transformation of the agro-climatic conditions of the Altai region as a result of climate change. The climate of the Altai region in Russia is sharply continental and characterized by dry air and significant weather variability, both in individual seasons and years. The current study is determined by the lack of detailed area-related analytical generalizations for the territory of the Altai region over the past 30 years. Most of the published data dealing with an integrated analysis of the agro-climatic conditions in the Altai region date back to the late 1960s and early 1970s; in most cases, this data is from climate reference-books based on the generalized data from the first half of the 20th century. To make accurate forecasts and to efficiently manage agricultural production in the Altai region, area-related data on the state and dynamics of agro-climatic changes have been analysed. The results reveal that in the period between 1964 and 2017, significant climatic changes occurred in the territory of the Altai region. These climatic changes affected the growing season length, which increased due to a shift in the dates of the air temperature transition above 10 °C, to earlier dates in spring and to later dates in autumn. Furthermore, the current study also revealed that the foothills of the Altai Mountains are the most moistened parts of the region and the Kulunda lowland is the most arid part. In the Altai region, the accumulated temperatures and amounts of precipitation during the growing season increased significantly, and the values of integrated coefficients and indices that reflect the moisture supply conditions for the territory also changed significantly. Based upon the results, a schematic map of the current precipitation distribution on the Altai region’s territory has been generated. These results and this map may be used to conduct more detailed studies in the field of agro-climatology and to update the current borders of agro-climatic areas and revision of the agro-climatic zonation scheme.

scholarly journals Glacier area changes in the Pumqu river basin, Tibetan Plateau, between the 1970s and 2001

2005 ◽  
Vol 51 (175) ◽  
pp. 607-610 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Jin ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Tao Che ◽  
Lizong Wu ◽  
Pradeep Mool
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Remote Sensing Images ◽  
Glacier Inventory ◽  
The Past ◽  
Digital Elevation ◽  
Elevation Model

AbstractGlacier area changes in the Pumqu river basin, Tibetan Plateau, between the 1970s and 2001 are analyzed, based on the Chinese Glacier Inventory and ASTER images. A new glacier inventory is obtained by visually interpreting the remote-sensing images and the digital elevation model. By comparing the two inventories, glacier area changes over the past 30 years are revealed. The results show that the area loss is about 9.0% and the shrinkage trend continues according to the meteorological data.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Its Possible Impact in Groundwater Resource of the Kankai River Basin, East Nepal Himalaya

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Champak Babu Silwal ◽  
Dinesh Pathak ◽  
Drona Adhikari ◽  
Tirtha Raj Adhikari
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
River System ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
The Future ◽  
Groundwater Systems ◽  
The Impact

Increasing evidence of changing climate patterns is being observed, and the impact of this change on groundwater has a direct impact on the livelihood and economy of the region. The research focuses on the impacts of global temperature increase and changing precipitation on the groundwater resources of part of the Himalayan river system. The spatial and temporal variations of the hydro-meteorological data of the Kankai River Basin in East Nepal were analyzed using non-parametric Mann–Kendall tests and Sen’s Slope methods, whereas CanESM2 was used to predict the future precipitation scenarios, and an attempt has been made to evaluate the possible impacts on groundwater systems in the region. The temperature shows a significant warming trend (0.14–0.64 °C/decade); however, the precipitation trends suggest remarkable variation mostly at higher elevation. The average annual precipitation suggests a decrease of 1.82 mm/year and a similar decrement has been projected for the future. The groundwater in the region has been influenced by the changing climate and the condition may further be exaggerated by reduced recharge and increased evapotranspiration. This understanding of the impacts and climate scenarios will help the planners with better adaptation strategies, plans, and programs for a better society.

scholarly journals Instability of production of agricultural products: Assessment and analysis features

2018 ◽  
pp. 803-819
Author(s):  
Dmitri Parmacli ◽  
Alina Ianioglo
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Risk Zone ◽  
The Past ◽  
Land Use Efficiency ◽  
Use Efficiency ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Stability

The article highlights the presence of unfavourable climatic conditions in the agricultural production of the Republic of Moldova, which adversely affect the results of crop cultivation and the economic sustainability of enterprises. As a rule, the variation indicators are not taken into account and evaluated when calculating the efficiency of crops production and sales, and accordingly, the potential values of land use efficiency in the industry are not correctly predicted. In this regard, the aim of the study is to develop methodo?logical approaches to assess the stability of production and to justify some fea?tures of calculating potential indicators of production and sales of crops. The article shows the dynamics of yield of leading crops over the past 16 years and estimates the instability of production. For this purpose formulas are proposed, with the help of which the level of sustainability of enterprises can be predicted. The suggested interrelationships are vividly presented on graphs. The proposed approaches will allow specialists of enterprises to calculate the financial safety margin and the risk zone for each crop, to predict economic development using, above all, the moving average indicators.

Spatio-temporal analysis of precipitation-based drought indices in Kucuk Menderes River Basin, Turkey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yonca Cavus ◽  
Ebru Eris ◽  
Hafzullah Aksoy ◽  
Halil Ibrahim Burgan ◽  
Hakan Aksu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

<div><span>Drought is one of the extreme hydrological events which may seriously affect the majority of the population in many ways such as economically, socially and environmentally. Researches on the drought analysis may prevent these adverse consequences to a significant extent. Droughts are characterized by using various meteorological and hydrological indicators (i.e. precipitation, temperature, streamflow etc.). These indicators are used to derive drought indices. Spatio-temporal drought is analysed both in time and space by using drought indices based on site-specific precipitation and temperature data. In this study, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using only precipitation data and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) using precipitation and temperature data are considered at various time scales changing from 1 to 24 months for a more detailed drought characterization. On the other hand, so-called Dimensionless Precipitation Anomaly Index (DPAI) is introduced at annual scale in this study. The DPAI is used to determine dry periods from the recorded precipitation data. Cases are studied in Kucuk Menderes River Basin located in the Aegean region of Turkey. Precipitation and temperature data obtained from five meteorological stations over the river basin are used to determine drought index time series. Drought risk graphs and drought severity maps are obtained from time series of the drought indices. Drought risk is the likelihood of the drought occurrence that is quantified with the frequency calculated from the SPI and SPEI time series. As for the drought severity maps, they are created to understand its basin-scale variation by using the severities calculated from the dry periods of SPI and SPEI time series. Results show that the prolonged severe historical dry periods of the river basin are correctly identified by the drought indices. These indices used in this study based on easily available meteorological data are simple tools to explain temporal variability at a site or spatial variability over the basin. Also, the spatial distribution of drought severity over the river basin does not show a significant variability though more severe droughts are observed in the inner part of the river basin. Mild drought dominates at each time scale, this stems from the tendency of precipitation fluctuating around the average. Results in the study have considerable importance both in science and practice of drought. Although the methodology established from basic tools using meteorological data, the outcomes of the study are expected to become beneficial for drought management plans.</span></div>

DROUGHT OCCURRENCE UNDER LITHUANIAN CLIMATIC CONDITIONS

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laima TAPARAUSKIENĖ ◽  
Veronika LUKŠEVIČIŪTĖ
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Precipitation Record ◽  
Calculation Step ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
June July

This study provides the analysis of drought conditions of vegetation period in 1982-2014 year in two Lithuanian regions: Kaunas and Telšiai. To identify drought conditions the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied. SPI was calculated using the long-term precipitation record of 1982–2014 with in-situ meteorological data. Calculation step of SPI was taken 1 month considering only vegetation period (May, June, July, August, September). The purpose of investigation was to evaluate the humidity/aridity of vegetation period and find out the probability of droughts occurrence under Lithuanian climatic conditions. It was found out that according SPI results droughts occurred in 14.5 % of all months in Kaunas region and in 15.8 % in Telšiai region. Wet periods in Kaunas region occurred in 15.8 %, and in Telšiai region occurrence of wet periods was – 18.8 % from all evaluated months. According SPI evaluation near normal were 69.7 % of total months during period of investigation in Kaunas and respectively – 65.5 % in Telšiai. The probability for extremely dry period under Lithuania climatic conditions are pretty low – 3.0 % in middle Lithuania and 2.4 % in western part of Lithuania.

FEATURES OF MONITORING OF DEGRADED LANDS TO ASSESS POSSIBILITIES FOR THEIR REHABILITATION

2020 ◽  
pp. 37-43
Author(s):  
B.I. KORZHENEVSKIY ◽  
◽  
N.V. KOLOMIYTSEV ◽  
G.YU. TOLKACHEV
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Morphological Characteristics ◽  
Energy Reserves ◽  
Land Restoration ◽  
Degraded Land ◽  
Degraded Lands ◽  
The Past ◽  
Unused Land ◽  
Restoration Work

Putting out of using large areas of agricultural lands in the central region over the past years has led to worsening the prospects of their purposed use, although the problem of the relevance of their restoration still remains. For many years the unused land was exposed to both natural exogenous processes such as erosion, suffusion, etc. and biological and chemical changes, usually for the worse for agriculture. There are considered elements of monitoring aimed at assessing the prospects or lack of perspectives of rehabilitation of degraded lands. An energy approach to assessing the state of slopes and soils located within these slopes is presented. The main factors of natural and anthropogenic character in assessing the prospects for land restoration are their steepness, excess relative to local bases of erosion other morphological characteristics of slopes which in general is reduced to an assessment of the energy provision of slopes and soils. So the higher the energy capacity of slopes – they are less promising for development, for soils – there is a reverse picture – the higher their energy reserves, the more promising is their use. Approaches to zoning the territory for monitoring from larger taxons of natural and anthropogenic genesis to the sites of special surveillance within which the prospects for rehabilitation of the agricultural land are evaluated. The most important factor is the material expediency of such actions, i.e. before starting the restoration work it is necessary to assess the profitability or loss of the proposed event. In cases of the material expediency it is feasible as further actions to include energy assessments of slopes and soils; zoning of the object according to the steepness and oriented characteristics of soil washout; and the possibility of obtaining agronomic and meteorological data on a timely basis. The result of the work is a forecast assessment of the prospects for restoring degraded land for the intended purpose using modern databases and WEB-systems.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document