scholarly journals Evaluation of Two Global Rainfall Models for Water Resources Planning and Management in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajayi J Oloruntade ◽  
Philip G Oguntunde ◽  
Kehinde O Mogaji
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
Research Unit ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
University Of Delaware ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Time Series Plot ◽  
Alternative Sources ◽  
Resources Planning

Given the sparseness of weather stations in Nigeria, there is an increasing need for alternative sources of rainfall data such as satellite measurements, numerical models and reanalysis. Nevertheless, the complexity of such data requires proper evaluation and validation. Therefore, this study evaluated two globally available rainfall products from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UNIDEL) using rain gauge data obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), over a period of twenty years (1980-1999) covering 24 stations. Time series plot and statistical tools were used to evaluate the products on annual, seasonal and zonal basis. The results show that the two products demonstrated comparable ability and sufficiently captured the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall over the country. However, the products overestimated and underestimated during the dry and rainy seasons, respectively. Although, correlation was comparatively high between 0.3 and 0.8, but negative in few instances, mean bias error (MBE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were generally high depicting high random error. The performance of the products was best in the Sahel, followed by the Savannah and Forest zones, with UNIDEL showing better performance in most cases. Consequently, we recommend further studies to validate the present results on the use of gridded data in the country.Keywords— evaluation, CRU, UNIDEL, rain gauge, rainfall products

scholarly journals Evaluation of Three-Hourly TMPA Rainfall Products Using Telemetric Rain Gauge Observations at Lai Nullah Basin in Islamabad, Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 2040 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asid Rehman ◽  
Farrukh Chishtie ◽  
Waqas Qazi ◽  
Sajid Ghuffar ◽  
Imran Fatima
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Rainfall Analysis ◽  
Light Rain ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Rain Rates ◽  
Daily Time

Flash floods which occur due to heavy rainfall in hilly and semi-hilly areas may prove deleterious when they hit urban centers. The prediction of such localized and heterogeneous phenomena is a challenge due to a scarcity of in-situ rainfall. A possible solution is the utilization of satellite-based precipitation products. The current study evaluates the efficacy of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) three-hourly products, i.e., 3B42 near-real-time (3B42RT) and 3B42 research version (3B42V7) at a sub-daily time scale. Various categorical indices have been used to assess the capability of products in the detection of rain/no-rain. Hourly rain rates are assessed by employing the most commonly used statistical measures, such as correlation coefficients (CC), mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), and root-mean-square error (RMSE). Further, a diurnal analysis is performed to authenticate TMPA’s performance in specific hours of the day. In general, the results show the good capability of both TMPA products in the detection of rain/no-rain events in all seasons except winter. Specifically, 3B42V7 performed better than 3B42RT. Moreover, both products detect a high number of rainy days falsely in light rain ranges. Regarding rainfall measurements, TMPA products exhibit an overall underestimation. Seasonally, 3B42V7 underestimates rainfall in monsoon and post-monsoon, and overestimates in winter and pre-monsoon. 3B42RT, on the other hand, underestimates rainfall in all seasons. A greater MBE and RMSE are found with both TMPA rain measurements in monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Overall, a weak correlation and high MBE between the TMPA (3B42RT, 3B42V7) and reference gauge hourly rain rates are found at a three-hourly time scale (CC = 0.41, 0.38, MBE = −0.92, −0.70). The correlation is significant at decadal (CC = 0.79, 0.77) and monthly (CC = 0.91, 0,90) timescales. Furthermore, diurnal rainfall analysis indicates low credibility of 3B42RT to detect flash flooding. Within the parameters of this study, we conclude that the TMPA products are not the best choice at a three-hourly time scale in hilly/semi-hilly areas of Pakistan. However, both products can be used at daily, yet more reliably above daily, time scales, with 3B42V7 preferable due to its consistency.

scholarly journals An assessment of IMERG rainfall products over Bali at multiple time scale

2020 ◽  
Vol 153 ◽  
pp. 02001
Author(s):  
I Wayan Andi Yuda ◽  
Rakhmat Prasetia ◽  
Abd. Rahman As-syakur ◽  
Takahiro Osawa ◽  
Masahiko Nagai
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Correction Coefficient ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Rainfall Variation

Evaluation of first five years of the Global Precipitation Measurement - Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) final preciptitation product was performed over Bali – Indonesia using surface observation data which derived from The Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia (BMKG) as a reference. This study evaluated IMERG’s performance in describing the temporal characteristics of rainfall variation over various time periods (including daily, monthly, and seasonal). The analysis concentrated on the period of April 2014 to April 2019. The results of statistical measurements consisted Probability of Detection (POD), linear correction coefficient (r), Mean Bias Error (MBE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). In general, the results showed that IMERG rainfall estimation value was lower than rain gauges data. The statistical assesment indicated IMERG data was highly accurate on monthly to seasonal timescales. However, a moderate correlation was shown between the daily data comparison from IMERG to ground references. IMERG Performed better in wet season period (November -April) than in dry season period (May – Oktober). The probability of detection rain events on daily time scale was good. Overall, data from IMERG has the potential to be useful as a complement to rain gauge data in areas where rainfall observations are not available in the field.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Datasets over Arid Regions of Pakistan

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamal Ahmed ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid ◽  
Xiaojun Wang ◽  
Nadeem Nawaz ◽  
Khan Najeebullah
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Research University ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Research Unit ◽  
Climatic Research Unit ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Precipitation Data

The rough topography, harsh climate, and sparse monitoring stations have limited hydro-climatological studies in arid regions of Pakistan. Gauge-based gridded precipitation datasets provide an opportunity to assess the climate where stations are sparsely located. Though, the reliability of these datasets heavily depends on their ability to replicate the observed temporal variability and distribution patterns. Conventional correlation or error analyses are often not enough to justify the variability and distribution of precipitation. In the present study, mean bias error, mean absolute error, modified index of agreement, and Anderson–Darling test have been used to evaluate the performance of four widely used gauge-based gridded precipitation data products, namely, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), Climatic Research Unit (CRU); Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration towards Evaluation (APHRODITE), Center for Climatic Research—University of Delaware (UDel) at stations located in semi-arid, arid, and hyper-arid regions in the Balochistan province of Pakistan. The result revealed that the performance of different products varies with climate. However, GPCC precipitation data was found to perform much better in all climatic regions in terms of most of the statistical assessments conducted. As the temporal variability and distribution of precipitation are very important in many hydrological and climatic applications, it can be expected that the methods used in this study can be useful for the better assessment of gauge-based data for various applications.

scholarly journals Hourly 5-km surface total and diffuse solar radiation in China, 2007–2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hou Jiang ◽  
Ning Lu ◽  
Jun Qin ◽  
Ling Yao
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Total Solar Radiation ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Diffuse Solar Radiation

Abstract Surface solar radiation is an indispensable parameter for numerical models, and the diffuse component contributes to the carbon uptake in ecosystems. We generated a 12-year (2007–2018) hourly dataset from Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) satellite observations, including surface total solar radiation (Rs) and diffuse radiation (Rdif), with 5-km spatial resolution through deep learning techniques. The used deep network tacks the integration of spatial pattern and the simulation of complex radiation transfer by combining convolutional neural network and multi-layer perceptron. Validation against ground measurements shows the correlation coefficient, mean bias error and root mean square error are 0.94, 2.48 W/m2 and 89.75 W/m2 for hourly Rs and 0.85, 8.63 W/m2 and 66.14 W/m2 for hourly Rdif, respectively. The correlation coefficient of Rs and Rdif increases to 0.94 (0.96) and 0.89 (0.92) at daily (monthly) scales, respectively. The spatially continuous hourly maps accurately reflect regional differences and restore the diurnal cycles of solar radiation at fine resolution. This dataset can be valuable for studies on regional climate changes, terrestrial ecosystem simulations and photovoltaic applications.

scholarly journals Comparsion of TRMM Precipitation Satellite Data over Central Java Region – Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 97-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andung Bayu Sekaranom ◽  
Emilya Nurjani ◽  
M. Pramono Hadi ◽  
Muh Aris Marfai
Keyword(s):  
Rainy Season ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Satellite Observation ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Trmm Precipitation

Abstract This research aims to compare precipitation data derived from satellite observation and ground measurements through a dense station network over Central Java, Indonesia. A precipitation estimate from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 Version 7 are compared with precipitation data from interpolated rain gauge stations. Correlation analysis, mean bias error (MBE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were utilized in the analysis for each thee-monthly seasonal statistics. The result shows that the 3B42 products often estimate lower rainfall than observed from weather stations in the peak of the rainy season (DJF). Further, it is revealed that the 3B42 product are less robust in estimating rainfall at high elevation, especially when humid environment, which is typical during the rainy season peak, are involved.

scholarly journals Correction of Eddy Covariance Based Crop ET Considering the Heat Flux Source Area

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 281
Author(s):  
Stuart L. Joy ◽  
José L. Chávez
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Eddy Covariance ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Flux Measurement ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
The Past ◽  
Measurement Results

Eddy covariance (EC) systems are being used to measure sensible heat (H) and latent heat (LE) fluxes in order to determine crop water use or evapotranspiration (ET). The reliability of EC measurements depends on meeting certain meteorological assumptions; the most important of such are horizontal homogeneity, stationarity, and non-advective conditions. Over heterogeneous surfaces, the spatial context of the measurement must be known in order to properly interpret the magnitude of the heat flux measurement results. Over the past decades, there has been a proliferation of ‘heat flux source area’ (i.e., footprint) modeling studies, but only a few have explored the accuracy of the models over heterogeneous agricultural land. A composite ET estimate was created by using the estimated footprint weights for an EC system in the upwind corner of four fields and separate ET estimates from each of these fields. Three analytical footprint models were evaluated by comparing the composite ET to the measured ET. All three models performed consistently well, with an average mean bias error (MBE) of about −0.03 mm h−1 (−4.4%) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.09 mm h−1 (10.9%). The same three footprint models were then used to adjust the EC-measured ET to account for the fraction of the footprint that extended beyond the field of interest. The effectiveness of the footprint adjustment was determined by comparing the adjusted ET estimates with the lysimetric ET measurements from within the same field. This correction decreased the absolute hourly ET MBE by 8%, and the RMSE by 1%.

scholarly journals CO2 Flux over the Contiguous United States in 2016 Inverted by WRF-Chem/DART from OCO-2 XCO2 Retrievals

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2996
Author(s):  
Qinwei Zhang ◽  
Mingqi Li ◽  
Maohua Wang ◽  
Arthur Paul Mizzi ◽  
Yongjian Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
High Spatial Resolution ◽  
Co2 Flux ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Parallel Experiment ◽  
Concentration Measurements ◽  
Global Stocktake

High spatial resolution carbon dioxide (CO2) flux inversion systems are needed to support the global stocktake required by the Paris Agreement and to complement the bottom-up emission inventories. Based on the work of Zhang, a regional CO2 flux inversion system capable of assimilating the column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) retrieved from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) observations had been developed. To evaluate the system, under the constraints of the initial state and boundary conditions extracted from the CarbonTracker 2017 product (CT2017), the annual CO2 flux over the contiguous United States in 2016 was inverted (1.08 Pg C yr−1) and compared with the corresponding posterior CO2 fluxes extracted from OCO-2 model intercomparison project (OCO-2 MIP) (mean: 0.76 Pg C yr−1, standard deviation: 0.29 Pg C yr−1, 9 models in total) and CT2017 (1.19 Pg C yr−1). The uncertainty of the inverted CO2 flux was reduced by 14.71% compared to the prior flux. The annual mean XCO2 estimated by the inversion system was 403.67 ppm, which was 0.11 ppm smaller than the result (403.78 ppm) simulated by a parallel experiment without assimilating the OCO-2 retrievals and closer to the result of CT2017 (403.29 ppm). Independent CO2 flux and concentration measurements from towers, aircraft, and Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) were used to evaluate the results. Mean bias error (MBE) between the inverted CO2 flux and flux measurements was 0.73 g C m−2 d−1, was reduced by 22.34% and 28.43% compared to those of the prior flux and CT2017, respectively. MBEs between the CO2 concentrations estimated by the inversion system and concentration measurements from TCCON, towers, and aircraft were reduced by 52.78%, 96.45%, and 75%, respectively, compared to those of the parallel experiment. The experiment proved that CO2 emission hotspots indicated by the inverted annual CO2 flux with a relatively high spatial resolution of 50 km consisted well with the locations of most major metropolitan/urban areas in the contiguous United States, which demonstrated the potential of combing satellite observations with high spatial resolution CO2 flux inversion system in supporting the global stocktake.

scholarly journals Hourly Ground-Level PM2.5 Estimation Using Geostationary Satellite and Reanalysis Data via Deep Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2121
Author(s):  
Changsuk Lee ◽  
Kyunghwa Lee ◽  
Sangmin Kim ◽  
Jinhyeok Yu ◽  
Seungtaek Jeong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cross Validation ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Training Dataset ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Near Surface

This study proposes an improved approach for monitoring the spatial concentrations of hourly particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) via a deep neural network (DNN) using geostationary ocean color imager (GOCI) images and unified model (UM) reanalysis data over the Korean Peninsula. The DNN performance was optimized to determine the appropriate training model structures, incorporating hyperparameter tuning, regularization, early stopping, and input and output variable normalization to prevent training dataset overfitting. Near-surface atmospheric information from the UM was also used as an input variable to spatially generalize the DNN model. The retrieved PM2.5 from the DNN was compared with estimates from random forest, multiple linear regression, and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model. The DNN demonstrated the highest accuracy compared to that of the conventional methods for the hold-out validation (root mean square error (RMSE) = 7.042 μg/m3, mean bias error (MBE) = −0.340 μg/m3, and coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.698) and the cross-validation (RMSE = 9.166 μg/m3, MBE = 0.293 μg/m3, and R2 = 0.49). Although the R2 was low due to underestimated high PM2.5 concentration patterns, the RMSE and MBE demonstrated reliable accuracy values (<10 μg/m3 and 1 μg/m3, respectively) for the hold-out validation and cross-validation.

scholarly journals Evaluation of NASA POWER Reanalysis Products to Estimate Daily Weather Variables in a Hot Summer Mediterranean Climate

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1207
Author(s):  
Gonçalo C. Rodrigues ◽  
Ricardo P. Braga
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Mediterranean Climate ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Weather Stations

This study aims to evaluate NASA POWER reanalysis products for daily surface maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures, solar radiation (Rs), relative humidity (RH) and wind speed (Ws) when compared with observed data from 14 distributed weather stations across Alentejo Region, Southern Portugal, with a hot summer Mediterranean climate. Results showed that there is good agreement between NASA POWER reanalysis and observed data for all parameters, except for wind speed, with coefficient of determination (R2) higher than 0.82, with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) varying, from 8 to 20%, and a normalized mean bias error (NMBE) ranging from –9 to 26%, for those variables. Based on these results, and in order to improve the accuracy of the NASA POWER dataset, two bias corrections were performed to all weather variables: one for the Alentejo Region as a whole; another, for each location individually. Results improved significantly, especially when a local bias correction is performed, with Tmax and Tmin presenting an improvement of the mean NRMSE of 6.6 °C (from 8.0 °C) and 16.1 °C (from 20.5 °C), respectively, while a mean NMBE decreased from 10.65 to 0.2%. Rs results also show a very high goodness of fit with a mean NRMSE of 11.2% and mean NMBE equal to 0.1%. Additionally, bias corrected RH data performed acceptably with an NRMSE lower than 12.1% and an NMBE below 2.1%. However, even when a bias correction is performed, Ws lacks the performance showed by the remaining weather variables, with an NRMSE never lower than 19.6%. Results show that NASA POWER can be useful for the generation of weather data sets where ground weather stations data is of missing or unavailable.

Energy models for cost-optimal analysis: Development and calibration of residential reference building models for Northern Cyprus

2021 ◽  
pp. 1420326X2110130
Author(s):  
Manta Marcelinus Dakyen ◽  
Mustafa Dagbasi ◽  
Murat Özdenefe
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Sampled Data ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Northern Cyprus

Ambitious energy efficiency goals constitute an important roadmap towards attaining a low-carbon society. Thus, various building-related stakeholders have introduced regulations targeting the energy efficiency of buildings. However, some countries still lack such policies. This paper is an effort to help bridge this gap for Northern Cyprus, a country devoid of building energy regulations that still experiences electrical energy production and distribution challenges, principally by establishing reference residential buildings which can be the cornerstone for prospective building regulations. Statistical analysis of available building stock data was performed to determine existing residential reference buildings. Five residential reference buildings with distinct configurations that constituted over 75% floor area share of the sampled data emerged, with floor areas varying from 191 to 1006 m2. EnergyPlus models were developed and calibrated for five residential reference buildings against yearly measured electricity consumption. Values of Mean Bias Error (MBE) and Cumulative Variation of Root Mean Squared Error CV(RMSE) between the models’ energy consumption and real energy consumption on monthly based analysis varied within the following ranges: (MBE)monthly from –0.12% to 2.01% and CV(RMSE)monthly from 1.35% to 2.96%. Thermal energy required to maintain the models' setpoint temperatures for cooling and heating varied from 6,134 to 11,451 kWh/year.

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