scholarly journals Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 22019-22046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Hu ◽  
Y. Xia ◽  
Q. Fu
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone Layer

Abstract. Observations show a stabilization or a weak increase of the stratospheric ozone layer since the late 1990s. Recent coupled chemistry-climate model simulations predicted that the stratospheric ozone layer will likely return to pre-1980 levels in the middle of the 21st century, as a results of the decline of ozone depleting substances under the 1987 Montreal Protocol. Since the ozone layer is an important component in determining stratospheric and tropospheric-surface energy balance, the recovery of the ozone layer may have significant impact on tropospheric-surface climate. Here, using multi-model ensemble results from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4) models and coupled chemistry-climate models, we show that as ozone recovery is considered, the troposphere is warmed more than that without considering ozone recovery, suggesting an enhancement of tropospheric warming due to ozone recovery. It is found that the enhanced tropospheric warming is mostly significant in the upper troposphere, with a global mean magnitude of ~0.41 K for 2001–2050. We also find that relatively large enhanced warming occurs in the extratropics and polar regions in summer and autumn in both hemispheres while the enhanced warming is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Enhanced warming is also found at the surface. The strongest enhancement of surface warming is located in the Arctic in boreal winter. The global annual mean enhancement of surface warming is about 0.16 K for 2001–2050.

scholarly journals Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (15) ◽  
pp. 7687-7699 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Hu ◽  
Y. Xia ◽  
Q. Fu
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Maximum Enhancement

Abstract. Recent simulations predicted that the stratospheric ozone layer will likely return to pre-1980 levels in the middle of the 21st century, as a result of the decline of ozone depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol. Since the ozone layer is an important component in determining stratospheric and tropospheric-surface energy balance, the recovery of stratospheric ozone may have significant impact on tropospheric-surface climate. Here, using multi-model results from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4) models and coupled chemistry-climate models, we show that as ozone recovery is considered, the troposphere is warmed more than that without considering ozone recovery, suggesting an enhancement of tropospheric warming due to ozone recovery. It is found that the enhanced tropospheric warming is mostly significant in the upper troposphere, with a global and annual mean magnitude of ~0.41 K for 2001–2050. We also find that relatively large enhanced warming occurs in the extratropics and polar regions in summer and autumn in both hemispheres, while the enhanced warming is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Enhanced warming is also found at the surface. The global and annual mean enhancement of surface warming is about 0.16 K for 2001–2050, with maximum enhancement in the winter Arctic.

scholarly journals Healing the Ozone Layer

2019 ◽  
pp. 304-322
Author(s):  
Frederike Albrecht ◽  
Charles F. Parker
Keyword(s):  
Gold Standard ◽  
Environmental Governance ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone Layer ◽  
Environmental Regimes ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances

The Montreal Protocol—the regime designed to protect the stratospheric ozone layer—has widely been hailed as the gold standard of global environmental governance and is one of few examples of international institutional cooperative arrangements successfully solving complex transnational problems. Although the stratospheric ozone layer still bears the impacts of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), the problem of ozone depletion is well on its way to being solved due to the protocol. This chapter examines how the protocol was designed and implemented in a way that has allowed it to successfully overcome a number of thorny challenges that most international environmental regimes must face: how to attract sufficient participation, how to promote compliance and manage non-compliance, how to strengthen commitments over time, how to neutralize or co-opt potential ‘veto players’, how to make the costs of implementation affordable, how to leverage public opinion in support of the regime’s goals, and, ultimately, how to promote the behavioural and policy changes needed to solve the problems and achieve the goals the regime was designed to solve. The chapter concludes that while some of the reasons for the Montreal Protocol’s success, such as fairly affordable, available substitutes for ODSs, are not easy to replicate, there are many other elements of this story that can be utilized when thinking about how to design solutions to other transnational environmental problems.

scholarly journals Impact of the Montreal Protocol on Antarctic Surface Mass Balance and Implications for Global Sea Level Rise

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (18) ◽  
pp. 7247-7253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Previdi ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Global Sea Level

Abstract The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, adopted in 1987, is an international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out emissions of chlorofluorocarbons and other ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). A growing body of scientific evidence now suggests that the implementation of the Montreal Protocol will have significant effects on climate over the next several decades, both by enabling stratospheric ozone recovery and by decreasing atmospheric concentrations of ODSs, which are greenhouse gases. Here, using a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model, the Community Earth System Model (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) [CESM(WACCM)], it is shown that the Montreal Protocol, through its impact on atmospheric ODS concentrations, leads to a substantial decrease in Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) over the period 2006–65 relative to a hypothetical “World Avoided” scenario in which the Montreal Protocol has not been implemented. This SMB decrease produces an additional 25 mm of global sea level rise (GSLR) by the year 2065 relative to the present day. It is found, however, that the additional GSLR resulting from the relative decrease in Antarctic SMB is more than offset by a reduction in ocean thermal expansion, leading to a net mitigation of future GSLR due to the Montreal Protocol.

scholarly journals The Response of the Ozone Layer to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations: Implications for Climate

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (22) ◽  
pp. 7629-7642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Chiodo ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
Radiative Perturbation ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Co2 Forcing

Abstract The quantification of the climate impacts exerted by stratospheric ozone changes in abrupt 4 × CO2 forcing experiments is an important step in assessing the role of the ozone layer in the climate system. Here, we build on our previous work on the change of the ozone layer under 4 × CO2 and examine the effects of ozone changes on the climate response to 4 × CO2, using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. We show that the global-mean radiative perturbation induced by the ozone changes under 4 × CO2 is small, due to nearly total cancellation between high and low latitudes, and between longwave and shortwave fluxes. Consistent with the small global-mean radiative perturbation, the effect of ozone changes on the global-mean surface temperature response to 4 × CO2 is negligible. However, changes in the ozone layer due to 4 × CO2 have a considerable impact on the tropospheric circulation. During boreal winter, we find significant ozone-induced tropospheric circulation responses in both hemispheres. In particular, ozone changes cause an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic jet, cooling over Eurasia, and drying over northern Europe. The ozone signals generally oppose the direct effects of increased CO2 levels and are robust across the range of ozone changes imposed in this study. Our results demonstrate that stratospheric ozone changes play a considerable role in shaping the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 forcing in both hemispheres and should be accounted for in climate sensitivity studies.

scholarly journals Inconsistencies between chemistry climate model and observed lower stratospheric trends since 1998

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
William T. Ball ◽  
Gabriel Chiodo ◽  
Marta Abalos ◽  
Justin Alsing
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. The stratospheric ozone layer shields surface life from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Following the Montreal Protocol ban of long-lived ozone depleting substances (ODSs), rapid depletion of total column ozone (TCO) ceased in the late 1990s and ozone above 32 km now enjoys a clear recovery. However, there is still no confirmation of TCO recovery, and evidence has emerged that ongoing quasi-global (60° S–60° N) lower stratospheric ozone decreases may be responsible, dominated by low latitudes (30° S–30° N). Chemistry climate models (CCMs) used to project future changes predict that lower stratospheric ozone will decrease in the tropics by 2100, but not at mid-latitudes (30°–60°). Here, we show that CCMs display an ozone decline similar to that observed in the tropics over 1998–2016, likely driven by a increase of tropical upwelling. On the other hand, mid-latitude lower stratospheric ozone is observed to decrease, while CCMs show an increase. Despite opposing lower stratospheric ozone changes, which should induce opposite temperature trends, CCM and observed temperature trends agree; we demonstrate that opposing model-observation stratospheric water vapour (SWV) trends, and their associated radiative effects, explain why temperature changes agree in spite of opposing ozone trends. We provide new evidence that the observed mid-latitude trends can be explained by enhanced mixing between the tropics and extratropics. We further show that the temperature trends are consistent with the observed mid-latitude ozone decrease. Together, our results suggest that large scale circulation changes expected in the future from increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) may now already be underway, but that most CCMs are not simulating well mid-latitude ozone layer changes. The reason CCMs do not exhibit the observed changes urgently needs to be understood to improve confidence in future projections of the ozone layer.

scholarly journals Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO<sub>x</sub> on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (14) ◽  
pp. 11041-11052
Author(s):  
Ville Maliniemi ◽  
Hilde Nesse Tyssøy ◽  
Christine Smith-Johnsen ◽  
Pavle Arsenovic ◽  
Daniel R. Marsh
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Energetic Electron ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Solar Uv ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, the equatorial upper stratosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 ppm more ozone in the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to the conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre-CFC era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending faster from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx in the polar thermosphere and upper mesosphere is mainly produced by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and partly by solar UV via transport from low latitudes. Our results indicate that the thermospheric/upper mesospheric NOx will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere.

scholarly journals Comment on "Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century" by Hu et al. (2011)

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 32993-33012 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. McLandress ◽  
J. Perlwitz ◽  
T. G. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Incomplete Removal

Abstract. In a recent paper Hu et al. (2011) suggest that the recovery of stratospheric ozone during the first half of this century will significantly enhance free tropospheric and surface warming caused by the anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gases, with the effects being most pronounced in Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. These surprising results are based on a multi-model analysis of IPCC AR4 model simulations with and without prescribed stratospheric ozone recovery. Hu et al. suggest that in order to properly quantify the tropospheric and surface temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery, it is necessary to run coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models with stratospheric ozone chemistry. The results of such an experiment are presented here, using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model coupled to a three-dimensional ocean model. In contrast to Hu et al., we find a much smaller Northern Hemisphere tropospheric temperature response to ozone recovery, which is of opposite sign. We argue that their result is an artifact of the incomplete removal of the large effect of greenhouse gas warming between the two different sets of models.

scholarly journals Impact of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric chemistry and dynamics

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1183-1194 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Suter ◽  
R. Zech ◽  
J. G. Anet ◽  
T. Peter
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Galactic Cosmic Rays ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Austral Winter

Abstract. Geomagnetic excursions, i.e. short periods in time with much weaker geomagnetic fields and substantial changes in the position of the geomagnetic pole, occurred repeatedly in the Earth's history, e.g. the Laschamp event about 41 kyr ago. Although the next such excursion is certain to come, little is known about the timing and possible consequences for the state of the atmosphere and the ecosystems. Here we use the global chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM to simulate the effects of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric ionization, chemistry and dynamics. Our simulations show significantly increased concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the entire stratosphere, especially over Antarctica (+15%), due to enhanced ionization by galactic cosmic rays. Hydrogen oxides (HOx) are also produced in greater amounts (up to +40%) in the tropical and subtropical lower stratosphere, while their destruction by reactions with enhanced NOx prevails over the poles and in high altitudes (by −5%). Stratospheric ozone concentrations decrease globally above 20 km by 1–2% and at the northern hemispheric tropopause by up to 5% owing to the accelerated NOx-induced destruction. A 5% increase is found in the southern lower stratosphere and troposphere. In response to these changes in ozone and the concomitant changes in atmospheric heating rates, the Arctic vortex intensifies in boreal winter, while the Antarctic vortex weakens in austral winter and spring. Surface wind anomalies show significant intensification of the southern westerlies at their poleward edge during austral winter and a pronounced northward shift in spring. Major impacts on the global climate seem unlikely.

scholarly journals Impact of geomagnetic events on atmospheric chemistry and dynamics

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 6605-6633
Author(s):  
I. Suter ◽  
R. Zech ◽  
J. G. Anet ◽  
T. Peter
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Austral Winter ◽  
Heating Rates

Abstract. Geomagnetic events, i.e. short periods in time with much weaker geomagnetic fields and substantial changes in the position of the geomagnetic pole, occurred repeatedly in the Earth's history, e.g. the Laschamp Event about 41 kyr ago. Although the next such event is certain to come, little is known about the timing and possible consequences for the state of the atmosphere and the ecosystems. Here we use the global chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM to simulate the effects of geomagnetic events on atmospheric ionization, chemistry and dynamics. Our simulations show significantly increased concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the entire stratosphere, especially over Antarctica (+15%), due to enhanced ionization. Hydrogen oxides (HOx) are also produced in greater amounts (up to +40%) in the tropical and subtropical lower stratosphere, while their destruction by reactions with enhanced NOx prevails over the poles and in high altitudes (by −5%). Stratospheric ozone concentrations decrease globally above 20 km by 1–2% and at the northern hemispheric tropopause by up to 5% owing to the accelerated NOx-induced destruction. A 5% increase is found in the southern lower stratosphere and troposphere. In response to these changes in ozone and the concomitant changes in atmospheric heating rates, the Arctic vortex intensifies in boreal winter, while the Antarctic vortex weakens in austral winter and spring. Surface wind anomalies show significant intensification of the southern westerlies at their poleward edge during austral winter and a pronounced northward shift in spring. This is analogous to today's poleward shift of the westerlies due to the ozone hole. It is challenging to robustly infer precipitation changes from the wind anomalies, and it remains unclear, whether the Laschamp Event could have caused the observed glacial maxima in the southern Central Andes. Moreover, a large impact on the global climate seems unlikely.

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