scholarly journals Regional model simulation of the hydrometeorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region

2003 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 2219-2232 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Tomassetti ◽  
F. Giorgi ◽  
M. Verdecchia ◽  
G. Visconti
Keyword(s):  
Model Simulation ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mesoscale Meteorology ◽  
Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics ◽  
Fucino Basin ◽  
Further Development

Abstract. The drainage of the Fucino Lake of central Italy was completed in 1873, and this possibly caused significant climatic changes over the Fucino basin. In this paper we discuss a set of short-term triple-nested regional model simulations of the meteorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region. We find that the model simulates realistic lake-breeze circulations and their response to background winds. The simulations indicate that the lake affects the temperature of the surrounding basin in all seasons and precipitation in the cold season, when cyclonic perturbations move across the region. Some effects of the lake also extend over areas quite far from the Fucino basin. Our results support the hypothesis that the drainage of the lake might have significantly affected the climate of the lake basin. However, longer simulations and further development in some aspects of the model are needed, in order to provide a more statistically robust evaluation of the simulated lake-effects.Key words. Hydrology (anthropogenic effects) – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology; mesoscale meteorology)

scholarly journals Multipronged dental analyses reveal dietary differences in last foragers and first farmers at Grotta Continenza, central Italy (15,500–7000 BP)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessia Nava ◽  
Elena Fiorin ◽  
Andrea Zupancich ◽  
Marialetizia Carra ◽  
Claudio Ottoni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dental Plaque ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Abruzzo Region ◽  
Nuanced Understanding ◽  
Fucino Basin ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Diachronic Changes ◽  
Dental Conditions ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Late Palaeolithic

AbstractThis paper provides results from a suite of analyses made on human dental material from the Late Palaeolithic to Neolithic strata of the cave site of Grotta Continenza situated in the Fucino Basin of the Abruzzo region of central Italy. The available human remains from this site provide a unique possibility to study ways in which forager versus farmer lifeways affected human odonto-skeletal remains. The main aim of our study is to understand palaeodietary patterns and their changes over time as reflected in teeth. These analyses involve a review of metrics and oral pathologies, micro-fossils preserved in the mineralized dental plaque, macrowear, and buccal microwear. Our results suggest that these complementary approaches support the assumption about a critical change in dental conditions and status with the introduction of Neolithic foodstuff and habits. However, we warn that different methodologies applied here provide data at different scales of resolution for detecting such changes and a multipronged approach to the study of dental collections is needed for a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of diachronic changes.

scholarly journals Evaluating Smartphone Pressure Observations for Mesoscale Analyses and Forecasts

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 511-531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke E. Madaus ◽  
Clifford F. Mass
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Active Period ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Dynamic Structures ◽  
Further Development

Abstract Smartphone pressure observations have the potential to greatly increase surface observation density on convection-resolving scales. Currently available smartphone pressure observations are tested through assimilation in a mesoscale ensemble for a 3-day, convectively active period in the eastern United States. Both raw pressure (altimeter) observations and 1-h pressure (altimeter) tendency observations are considered. The available observation density closely follows population density, but observations are also available in rural areas. The smartphone observations are found to contain significant noise, which can limit their effectiveness. The assimilated smartphone observations contribute to small improvements in 1-h forecasts of surface pressure and 10-m wind, but produce larger errors in 2-m temperature forecasts. Short-term (0–4 h) precipitation forecasts are improved when smartphone pressure and pressure tendency observations are assimilated as compared with an ensemble that assimilates no observations. However, these improvements are limited to broad, mesoscale features with minimal skill provided at convective scales using the current smartphone observation density. A specific mesoscale convective system (MCS) is examined in detail, and smartphone pressure observations captured the expected dynamic structures associated with this feature. Possibilities for further development of smartphone observations are discussed.

scholarly journals Effect of Short-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and Temperature on Acute Myocardial Infarction in Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4822
Author(s):  
Jiyoung Shin ◽  
Jongmin Oh ◽  
In Sook Kang ◽  
Eunhee Ha ◽  
Wook Bum Pyun
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Acute Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Fine Particulate Matter ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fine Particulate ◽  
Short Term Exposure ◽  
The Impact

Background/Aim: Previous studies have suggested that the short-term ambient air pollution and temperature are associated with myocardial infarction. In this study, we aimed to conduct a time-series analysis to assess the impact of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and temperature on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) among adults over 20 years of age in Korea by using the data from the Korean National Health Information Database (KNHID). Methods: The daily data of 192,567 AMI cases in Seoul were collected from the nationwide, population-based KNHID from 2005 to 2014. The monitoring data of ambient PM2.5 from the Seoul Research Institute of Public Health and Environment were also collected. A generalized additive model (GAM) that allowed for a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to analyze the effects of PM2.5 and temperature on the incidence of AMI. Results: The models with PM2.5 lag structures of lag 0 and 2-day averages of lag 0 and 1 (lag 01) showed significant associations with AMI (Relative risk [RR]: 1.011, CI: 1.003–1.020 for lag 0, RR: 1.010, CI: 1.000–1.020 for lag 01) after adjusting the covariates. Stratification analysis conducted in the cold season (October–April) and the warm season (May–September) showed a significant lag 0 effect for AMI cases in the cold season only. Conclusions: In conclusion, acute exposure to PM2.5 was significantly associated with AMI morbidity at lag 0 in Seoul, Korea. This increased risk was also observed at low temperatures.

scholarly journals Patients who leave Emergency Department without being seen or during treatment in the Lazio Region (Central Italy): Determinants and short term outcomes

PLoS ONE ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. e0208914 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Mataloni ◽  
Paola Colais ◽  
Claudia Galassi ◽  
Marina Davoli ◽  
Danilo Fusco
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Lazio Region

scholarly journals Managing brand presence through social media: the case of UK football clubs

2014 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff McCarthy ◽  
Jennifer Rowley ◽  
Catherine Jane Ashworth ◽  
Elke Pioch
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Web Sites ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Football Clubs ◽  
Multiple Case ◽  
Community Growth ◽  
Further Development

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to contribute knowledge on the issues and benefits associated with managing brand presence and relationships through social media. UK football clubs are big businesses, with committed communities of fans, so are an ideal context from which to develop an understanding of the issues and challenges facing organisations as they seek to protect and promote their brand online. Design/methodology/approach – Due to the emergent nature of social media, and the criticality of the relationships between clubs and their fans, an exploratory study using a multiple case study approach was used to gather rich insights into the phenomenon. Findings – Clubs agreed that further development of social media strategies had potential to deliver interaction and engagement, community growth and belonging, traffic flow to official web sites and commercial gain. However, in developing their social media strategies they had two key concerns. The first concern was the control of the brand presence and image in social media, and how to respond to the opportunities that social media present to fans to impact on the brand. The second concern was how to strike an appropriate balance between strategies that deliver short-term revenue, and those that build longer term brand loyalty. Originality/value – This research is the first to offer insights into the issues facing organisations when developing their social media strategy.

scholarly journals Basement Mapping of the Fucino Basin in Central Italy by ITRESC Modeling of Gravity Data

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 398
Author(s):  
Federico Cella ◽  
Rosa Nappi ◽  
Valeria Paoletti ◽  
Giovanni Florio
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Site Response ◽  
Gravity Data ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Gravity Anomalies ◽  
Gravity Modeling ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Sedimentary Evolution ◽  
Fucino Basin

Sediments infilling in intermontane basins in areas with high seismic activity can strongly affect ground-shaking phenomena at the surface. Estimates of thickness and density distribution within these basin infills are crucial for ground motion amplification analysis, especially where demographic growth in human settlements has implied increasing seismic risk. We employed a 3D gravity modeling technique (ITerative RESCaling—ITRESC) to investigate the Fucino Basin (Apennines, central Italy), a half-graben basin in which intense seismic activity has recently occurred. For the first time in this region, a 3D model of the Meso-Cenozoic carbonate basement morphology was retrieved through the inversion of gravity data. Taking advantage of the ITRESC technique, (1) we were able to (1) perform an integration of geophysical and geological data constraints and (2) determine a density contrast function through a data-driven process. Thus, we avoided assuming a priori information. Finally, we provided a model that honored the gravity anomalies field by integrating many different kinds of depth constraints. Our results confirmed evidence from previous studies concerning the overall shape of the basin; however, we also highlighted several local discrepancies, such as: (a) the position of several fault lines, (b) the position of the main depocenter, and (c) the isopach map. We also pointed out the existence of a new, unknown fault, and of new features concerning known faults. All of these elements provided useful contributions to the study of the tectono-sedimentary evolution of the basin, as well as key information for assessing the local site-response effects, in terms of seismic hazards.

scholarly journals Short-term earthquake forecasting experiment before and during the L’Aquila (central Italy) seismic sequence of April 2009

2015 ◽  
Vol 57 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maura Murru ◽  
Jiancang Zhuang ◽  
Rodolfo Console ◽  
Giuseppe Falcone
Keyword(s):  
Central Italy ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Productivity Function ◽  
Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
The One ◽  
Lower Magnitude

<div class="page" title="Page 1"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p>In this paper, we compare the forecasting performance of several statistical models, which are used to describe the occurrence process of earthquakes in forecasting the short-term earthquake probabilities during the L’Aquila earthquake sequence in central Italy in 2009. These models include the Proximity to Past Earthquakes (PPE) model and two versions of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. We used the information gains corresponding to the Poisson and binomial scores to evaluate the performance of these models. It is shown that both ETAS models work better than the PPE model. However, in comparing the two types of ETAS models, the one with the same fixed exponent coefficient (<span>alpha)</span> = 2.3 for both the productivity function and the scaling factor in the spatial response function (ETAS I), performs better in forecasting the active aftershock sequence than the model with different exponent coefficients (ETAS II), when the Poisson score is adopted. ETAS II performs better when a lower magnitude threshold of 2.0 and the binomial score are used. The reason is found to be that the catalog does not have an event of similar magnitude to the L’Aquila mainshock (M<sub>w</sub> 6.3) in the training period (April 16, 2005 to March 15, 2009), and the (<span>alpha)</span>-value is underestimated, thus the forecast seismicity is underestimated when the productivity function is extrapolated to high magnitudes. We also investigate the effect of the inclusion of small events in forecasting larger events. These results suggest that the training catalog used for estimating the model parameters should include earthquakes of magnitudes similar to the mainshock when forecasting seismicity during an aftershock sequence.</p></div></div></div>

Impact of air pollution on mortality due to cerebrovascular diseases

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Kuzma ◽  
EJ Dabrowski ◽  
A Kurasz ◽  
M Swieczkowski ◽  
H Bachorzewska-Gajewska ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Cerebrovascular Diseases ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Effect ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Funding Acknowledgements

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality is well-documented but a scarce number of studies focus on cause-specific mortality in low-polluted areas. Purpose We decided to distinguish deaths due to cerebrovascular disease (CbVD) from a region widely known as the Green Lungs of Poland to assess the short-term effect of air pollution on CbVD mortality. Methods The analysis with almost 4,500,000 person-years of follow-up with a time-stratified case-crossover design was performed. Results are reported as odds ratio (OR) associated with an increase in interquartile range (IQR) of air pollution. Results In the overall analysis of the studied region PM2.5 had an impact on increased CbVD mortality at LAG 0 (OR 1.046, 95% CI 1.013 – 1.080, P = 0.006), LAG 0-1 (1.048, 1.002-1.082, P = 0.040), and LAG 0-3 (1.052, 1.015-1.090, P = 0.006). The influence of PM10 was noted at LAG 0 (1.041, 1.002-1.082, P = 0.040). CbVD mortality in Bialystok was increased by exposure to PM10 at LAG 0 (1.05, 1.00-1.09, P = 0.048) and CO at LAG 1 (1.07, 1.00-1.14, P = 0.04). Additionally, an effect of CO was observed in cold season at LAG 1 (1.09, 1.02-1.17, P = 0.02), LAG 0-1 (1.08, 1.00-1.016, P = 0.04), and LAG 0-3 (1.09, 1.01-1.18, P = 0.04). In Suwalki, an impact of PM2.5 was also observed. Conclusions A short-term increase in air pollutants concentrations, especially in PM2.5 and CO, had an influence on CbVD mortality. Mortality rates were significantly increased in cold season. We also found heterogeneity in the influence of major contributors on mortality between analyzed cities.

Was a sudden stop at the origin of German hyperinflation?

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-186
Author(s):  
Elena Seghezza ◽  
Pierluigi Morelli
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flows ◽  
Social Conflict ◽  
German Economy ◽  
Sudden Stop ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Seminal Contribution ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
Further Development

Since the publication of Cagan's seminal contribution in 1956 and its further development by Sargent (1982) there has been a growing literature that seeks to explain German hyperinflation in terms of the monetary hypothesis. However, this article shows that the origins of this hyperinflation can be traced back to a sudden stop that occurred in the summer of 1922 at a time when expectations that the German economy would stabilise began to subside. The reversal of capital flows that took place in those months led in the short term to a dramatic depreciation of the mark, a significant increase in prices and a decline in output. This decline sparked bitter social conflict that fuelled a wage and price spiral. This spiral was accommodated by monetary authorities, leading in turn to explosive inflation.

67 The growth and development of invivo-derived dromedary embryos during short-term incubation: Use of embryo holding medium and the effect of embryonic morphology

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 140
Author(s):  
B. Asadi ◽  
F. Seyedasgari
Keyword(s):  
Growth And Development ◽  
Culture Medium ◽  
Calf Serum ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Developmental Competence ◽  
Dromedary Camel ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Experimental Media ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Short Term Culture

Production of invivo embryos for transfer in dromedary camel is a well-established practice, whereas freezing of these embryos is still an ongoing challenge. A common approach in evaluation of freeze–thawing method is achieved by studying invitro development of frozen–thawed embryos. However, not much is known about the development pattern of fresh dromedary embryos during incubation. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the usefulness of commercial holding media for easy short-term culture of these embryos and to provide preliminary insights on the growth and development of hatched blastocysts with different shapes. Recovered hatched blastocysts from superovulated donors were graded as transferable and non-transferable. Embryos with significant folding or crinkliness were further categorized as collapsed, whereas those with a round or oval appearance were categorized as spherical. Culture was performed in 500-μL drops at 38.5°C, 5% O2, 0–6% CO2, and maximum humidity in groups of 2 to 4. The 4 experimental media included culture medium (CM; TCM-199, 10% fetal calf serum (FCS), 0.3mM sodium pyruvate, 2.2mg mL−1 sodium bicarbonate), serum-supplemented holding medium (SSH; Syngro+10% FCS), serum-free holding medium (Syngro) and V-Onestep (Vitromed). In experiment 1, a total of 36 embryos were assigned to 4 groups and further development of the embryos was monitored up to 96h by morphological evaluations, identifying static and degenerating embryos on daily basis. In experiment 2, a total of 16 spherical and 16 collapsed embryos were cultured in SSH and CM and two-thirds of the culture drop was replaced with fresh medium at 72h. The proportion of developing embryos and their size expansion was compared between treatments by Fisher’s test and Mann–Whitney U test, respectively. Statistically similar proportions of embryos continued to develop in all media within the first 48h despite a numeric advantage in CM group; at 72h, the proportion of growing embryos was significantly higher in CM (77.8%) and SSH (66.6%) compared with SFH (11.1%) and OneStep (22.2%) (P&lt;0.05). None of the embryos in SFH and only 1 embryo in the V-Onestep group survived beyond 72h, whereas 3/9 embryos in SSH and 7/9 embryos in CM continued to expand. In experiment 2, the proportion of spherical embryos that developed was higher compared with their collapsed counterparts (8/8 in both groups vs. 5/8 and 4/8 in CM and SSH, respectively) at 24h. However, remaining collapsed embryos grew and expanded at similar rates to spherical ones in each group (P&gt;0.05). Replacing the medium did not favour continuation of embryonic growth in SSH beyond 72 h; only 5/16 embryos survived to 96h compared with 12/16 in CM. In conclusion, serum-supplemented commercial holding preparations provide comparable results to culture medium for short-term incubation of invivo dromedary embryos. Natural collapsing of hatched blastocysts might be associated with lower developmental competence.

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