scholarly journals Simulations of the last interglacial and the subsequent glacial inception with the Planet Simulator

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 1347-1369 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Donat ◽  
F. Kaspar
Keyword(s):  
Negative Temperature ◽  
Transient Simulation ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Orbital Parameters ◽  
Summer Insolation ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Mixed Layer Ocean ◽  
Insolation Change ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. The Planet Simulator was used to perform equilibrium simulations of the Eemian interglacial at 125 kyBP and the glacial inception at 115 kyBP. Additionally, an accelerated transient simulation of that interval was performed. During this period the changes of Earth's orbital parameters led to a reduction of summer insolation in the northern latitudes. The model has been run in different configurations in order to evaluate the influence of the individual sub-models. The strongest reaction on the insolation change was observed when the atmosphere was coupled with all available sub-systems: a mixed-layer ocean and a sea-ice model as well as a vegetation model. In the simulations representing the interglacial, the near-surface temperature in northern latitudes is higher compared to the preindustrial reference run and almost no perennial snow cover occurs. In the run for the glacial inception, wide areas in mid and high northern latitudes show negative temperature anomalies and wide areas are covered by snow or ice. The transient simulation shows that snow volume starts to increase after summer insolation has fallen below a critical value. The main reason for the beginning glaciation is the locally reduced (summer) temperature as a consequence of reduced summer insolation. Therefore, a larger fraction of precipitation falls as snow and less snow can melt. That mechanism is amplified by the snow-albedo-feedback.

scholarly journals The White Dwarf Mass and Orbital Period Distribution in Zero-Age Cataclysmic Binaries

1989 ◽  
Vol 114 ◽  
pp. 440-442
Author(s):  
M. Politano ◽  
R. F. Webbink
Keyword(s):  
Star Formation ◽  
White Dwarf ◽  
Galactic Disk ◽  
Orbital Energy ◽  
Orbital Parameter ◽  
Orbital Parameters ◽  
Cataclysmic Binaries ◽  
Magnetic Braking ◽  
Orbital Periods ◽  
The Individual

A zero-age cataclysmic binary (ZACB) we define as a binary system at the onset of interaction as a cataclysmic variable. We present here the results of calculations of the distributions of white dwarf masses and of orbital periods in ZACBs, due to binaries present in a stellar population which has undergone continuous, constant star formation for 1010 years.Distributions of ZACBs were calculated for binaries formed t years ago, for log t = 7.4 (the youngest age at which viable ZACBs can form) to log t = 10.0 (the assumed age of the Galactic disk), in intervals of log t = 0.1. These distributions were then integrated over time to obtain the ZACB distribution for a constant rate of star formation. To compute the individual distributions for a given t, we require the density of systems forming (number of pre-cataclysmics forming per unit volume of orbital parameter space), n£(t), and the rates at which the radii of the secondary and of its Roche lobe are changing in time, s (t) and L, s (t), respectively. In calculating nf(t), we assume that the distribution of the orbital parameters in primordial (ZAMS) binaries may be written as the product of the distribution of masses of ZAMS stars (Miller and Scalo 1979), the distribution of mass ratios in ZAMS binaries (cf. Popova, et al., 1982), and the distribution of orbital periods in ZAMS binaries (Abt 1983). In transforming the the orbital parameters from progenitor (ZAMS) to offspring (ZACB) binaries, we assume that all of the orbital energy deposited into the envelope during the common envelope phase leading to ZACB formation goes into unbinding that envelope. R.L, s (t) is determined from orbital angular momentum loss rates due to gravitational radiation (Landau and Lifshitz 1951) and magnetic braking (γ = 2 in Rappaport, Verbunt, and Joss 1983). We turn off magnetic braking if the secondary is completely convective.

The stability of the stratospheric ozone layer during the end-Permian eruption of the Siberian Traps

2007 ◽  
Vol 365 (1856) ◽  
pp. 1843-1866 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J Beerling ◽  
Michael Harfoot ◽  
Barry Lomax ◽  
John A Pyle
Keyword(s):  
Organic Matter ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Ultraviolet B ◽  
Large Reservoir ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Siberian Traps ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Mutagenic Effects

The discovery of mutated palynomorphs in end-Permian rocks led to the hypothesis that the eruption of the Siberian Traps through older organic-rich sediments synthesized and released massive quantities of organohalogens, which caused widespread O 3 depletion and allowed increased terrestrial incidence of harmful ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B, 280–315 nm; Visscher et al . 2004 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 101 , 12 952–12 956). Here, we use an extended version of the Cambridge two-dimensional chemistry–transport model to evaluate quantitatively this possibility along with two other potential causes of O 3 loss at this time: (i) direct effects of HCl release by the Siberian Traps and (ii) the indirect release of organohalogens from dispersed organic matter. According to our simulations, CH 3 Cl released from the heating of coals alone caused comparatively minor O 3 depletion (5–20% maximum) because this mechanism fails to deliver sufficiently large amounts of Cl into the stratosphere. The unusual explosive nature of the Siberian Traps, combined with the direct release of large quantities of HCl, depleted the model O 3 layer in the high northern latitudes by 33–55%, given a main eruptive phase of less than or equal to 200 kyr. Nevertheless, O 3 depletion was most extensive when HCl release from the Siberian Traps was combined with massive CH 3 Cl release synthesized from a large reservoir of dispersed organic matter in Siberian rocks. This suite of model experiments produced column O 3 depletion of 70–85% and 55–80% in the high northern and southern latitudes, respectively, given eruption durations of 100–200 kyr. On longer eruption time scales of 400–600 kyr, corresponding O 3 depletion was 30–40% and 20–30%, respectively. Calculated year-round increases in total near-surface biologically effective (BE) UV-B radiation following these reductions in O 3 layer range from 30–60 (kJ m −2  d −1 ) BE up to 50–100 (kJ m −2  d −1 ) BE . These ranges of daily UV-B doses appear sufficient to exert mutagenic effects on plants, especially if sustained over tens of thousands of years, unlike either rising temperatures or SO 2 concentrations.

scholarly journals Determination of the united quality latent index of adaptability (UQLIA) and contribution of some environmental parameters to it for Deschampsia antarctica populations, Galindez island (Maritime Antarctic) season 2017/2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 190-202
Author(s):  
I. Y. Parnikoza ◽  
N. Y. Miryuta ◽  
V. Y. Ivanets ◽  
E. O. Dykyi
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Deschampsia Antarctica ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Soil Surface Temperature ◽  
Experimental Populations ◽  
The Individual

The purpose of our work has been to determine the indicator of complex adaptability — the United Quality Latent Index of Adaptability (UQLIA) for the experimental populations of Deschampsia antarctica É. Desv. and study the contribution to it of some environmental factors such as the near soil surface temperature and organogens content. Materials and methods. The determination of UQLIA was based on a pairwise comparison of the differences between investigated parameters of populations by mathematical regression techniques. The soil surface temperature was measured by loggers installed near plants in each locus during April 2017 – April 2018. Results and conclusions. Temperature fluctuations were described during December 2017 – February 2018 for twelve experimental populations of D. antarctica and one control fragment of moss turf subformation from Galindez Island. Significant variations in average daily near surface temperature were observed during the study period between populations, especially in December and January. The UQLIA of D. antarctica for this season was calculated on the basis of the projective cover, biometric indices of generative plants and the content of protective and reserve proteins in seeds for the eleven populations. The values of the United Soil Surface Temperature Influence Index (UTII) for the season summer months and the United Organogens Content in Soil Influence Index (UOCSII) have been calculated for the individual parameters of D. antarctica plants adaptability. The reliable contribution of UTII to ULIA has been shown for December and January, at the moment of the greatest variation of soil surface temperature. UOCSII provided a reliable contribution to the ULIA only in the amount of UTII. Keywords: Deschampsia antarctica, United Quality Latent Index of Adaptability (UQLIA), contribution of soil surface temperature and organogens content to complex adaptability.

scholarly journals Spatial characteristics of aerosol physical properties over the northeastern parts of peninsular India

2005 ◽  
Vol 23 (10) ◽  
pp. 3219-3227 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Niranjan ◽  
B. Melleswara Rao ◽  
P. S. Brahmanandam ◽  
B. L. Madhavan ◽  
V. Sreekanth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Properties ◽  
Particle Growth ◽  
Back Trajectory ◽  
Peninsular India ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Accumulation Mode ◽  
Back Trajectory Analysis ◽  
Aerosol Mass ◽  
Northern Latitudes

Abstract. Measurements on aerosol spectral optical depths and near surface mass-size distributions made at several locations in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Chattisgarh, constituting the northeastern part of the peninsular India during the ISRO-GBP land campaign-I show significant regional variations in aerosol physical properties. Higher spectral optical depths were observed in the coastal regions and over southern latitudes compared to interior continental regions and northern latitudes. The optical depths, size index "α" and the near surface aerosol mass concentrations indicate a relative abundance of nucleation mode aerosols in the northern latitudes, in contrast to the dominance of the accumulation mode aerosols at the eastern coastal and southern latitudes. The airmass pathways derived from the back trajectory analysis indicate that the higher aerosol population in the accumulation mode, and consequently the higher optical depths in the southern locations, could be due to the transport of aerosol from the polluted north Indian regions via the oceanic region over the Bay of Bengal, where significant particle growth is expected, increasing the population of accumulation mode aerosols over these regions.

scholarly journals On the survival of resonant and non-resonant planetary systems in star clusters

2020 ◽  
Vol 497 (2) ◽  
pp. 1807-1825
Author(s):  
Katja Stock ◽  
Maxwell X Cai ◽  
Rainer Spurzem ◽  
M B N Kouwenhoven ◽  
Simon Portegies Zwart
Keyword(s):  
Solar System ◽  
Star Clusters ◽  
Planetary Systems ◽  
Dynamical Evolution ◽  
Giant Planets ◽  
Mean Motion Resonances ◽  
Orbital Parameters ◽  
Eccentric Orbits ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Exoplanet Systems

ABSTRACT Despite the discovery of thousands of exoplanets in recent years, the number of known exoplanets in star clusters remains tiny. This may be a consequence of close stellar encounters perturbing the dynamical evolution of planetary systems in these clusters. Here, we present the results from direct N-body simulations of multiplanetary systems embedded in star clusters containing N = 8k, 16k, 32k, and 64k stars. The planetary systems, which consist of the four Solar system giant planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, are initialized in different orbital configurations, to study the effect of the system architecture on the dynamical evolution of the entire planetary system, and on the escape rate of the individual planets. We find that the current orbital parameters of the Solar system giants (with initially circular orbits, as well as with present-day eccentricities) and a slightly more compact configuration, have a high resilience against stellar perturbations. A configuration with initial mean-motion resonances of 3:2, 3:2, and 5:4 between the planets, which is inspired by the Nice model, and for which the two outermost planets are usually ejected within the first 105 yr, is in many cases stabilized due to the removal of the resonances by external stellar perturbation and by the rapid ejection of at least one planet. Assigning all planets the same mass of 1 MJup almost equalizes the survival fractions. Our simulations reproduce the broad diversity amongst observed exoplanet systems. We find not only many very wide and/or eccentric orbits, but also a significant number of (stable) retrograde orbits.

Complexity-based approach for El Niño magnitude forecasting before the spring predictability barrier

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Meng ◽  
Jingfang Fan ◽  
Josef Ludescher ◽  
Ankit Agarwala ◽  
Xiaosong Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Statistical Prediction ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Strong Positive Correlation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Spring Predictability Barrier ◽  
Prediction Horizon ◽  
The Individual

<p>The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most prominent interannual climate phenomena. An early and reliable ENSO forecasting remains a crucial goal, due to its serious implications for economy, society, and ecosystem. Despite the development of various dynamical and statistical prediction models in the recent decades, the “spring predictability barrier” (SPB) remains a great challenge for long (over 6-month) lead-time forecasting. To overcome this barrier, here we develop an analysis tool, the System Sample Entropy (SysSampEn), to measure the complexity (disorder) of the system composed of temperature anomaly time series in the Niño 3.4 region. When applying this tool to several near surface air temperature and sea surface temperature datasets, we find that in all datasets a strong positive correlation exists between the magnitude of El Niño and the previous calendar year’s SysSampEn (complexity). We show that this correlation allows to forecast the magnitude of an El Niño with a prediction horizon of 1 year and high accuracy (i.e., Root Mean Square Error = 0.23°C for the average of the individual datasets forecasts). For the 2018 El Niño event, our method forecasts a weak El Niño with a magnitude of 1.11±0.23°C.  Our framework presented here not only facilitates a long–term forecasting of the El Niño magnitude but can potentially also be used as a measure for the complexity of other natural or engineering complex systems.</p>

scholarly journals Complexity of Snow Schemes in a Climate Model and Its Impact on Surface Energy and Hydrology

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 521-538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuel Dutra ◽  
Pedro Viterbo ◽  
Pedro M. A. Miranda ◽  
Gianpaolo Balsamo
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Single Layer ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Soil Freezing ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Tightly Coupled

Abstract Three different complexity snow schemes implemented in the ECMWF land surface scheme Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme of Surface Exchanges over Land (HTESSEL) are evaluated within the EC-EARTH climate model. The snow schemes are (i) the original HTESSEL single-bulk-layer snow scheme, (ii) a new snow scheme in operations at ECMWF since September 2009, and (iii) a multilayer version of the previous. In offline site simulations, the multilayer scheme outperforms the single-layer schemes in deep snowpack conditions through its ability to simulate sporadic melting events thanks to the lower thermal inertial of the uppermost layer. Coupled atmosphere–land/snow simulations performed by the EC-EARTH climate model are validated against remote sensed snow cover and surface albedo. The original snow scheme has a systematic early melting linked to an underestimation of surface albedo during spring that was partially reduced with the new snow schemes. A key process to improve the realism of the near-surface atmospheric temperature and at the same time the soil freezing is the thermal insulation of the snowpack (tightly coupled with the accuracy of snow mass and density simulations). The multilayer snow scheme outperforms the single-layer schemes in open deep snowpack (such as prairies or tundra in northern latitudes) and is instead comparable in shallow snowpack conditions. However, the representation of orography in current climate models implies limitations for accurately simulating the snowpack, particularly over complex terrain regions such as the Rockies and the Himalayas.

Intensification of Convective Rain Cells at Warmer Temperatures Observed from High-Resolution Weather Radar Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 715-726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadav Peleg ◽  
Francesco Marra ◽  
Simone Fatichi ◽  
Peter Molnar ◽  
Efrat Morin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Weather Radar ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Semiarid Regions ◽  
Convective Rain ◽  
The Individual

Abstract This study contributes to the understanding of the relationship between air temperature and convection by analyzing the characteristics of rainfall at the storm and convective rain cell scales. High spatial–temporal resolution (1 km, 5 min) estimates from a uniquely long weather radar record (24 years) were coupled with near-surface air temperature over Mediterranean and semiarid regions in the eastern Mediterranean. In the examined temperature range (5°–25°C), the peak intensity of individual convective rain cells was found to increase with temperature, but at a lower rate than the 7%°C−1 scaling expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, while the area of the individual convective rain cells slightly decreases or, at most, remains unchanged. At the storm scale, the areal convective rainfall was found to increase with warmer temperatures, whereas the areal nonconvective rainfall and the stormwide area decrease. This suggests an enhanced moisture convergence from the stormwide extent toward the convective rain cells. Results indicate a reduction in the total rainfall amounts and an increased heterogeneity of the spatial structure of the storm rainfall for temperatures increasing up to 25°C. Thermodynamic conditions, analyzed using convective available potential energy, were determined to be similar between Mediterranean and semiarid regions. Limitations in the atmospheric moisture availability when shifting from Mediterranean to semiarid climates were detected and explain the suppression of the intensity of the convective rain cells when moving toward drier regions. The relationships obtained in this study are relevant for nearby regions characterized by Mediterranean and semiarid climates.

scholarly journals Urban Turbulence in Space and in Time

2012 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce B. Hicks ◽  
William J. Callahan ◽  
William R. Pendergrass ◽  
Ronald J. Dobosy ◽  
Elena Novakovskaia
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Velocity Component ◽  
Additional Data ◽  
Wind Component ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Urban Turbulence ◽  
Wind Velocities ◽  
Standard Deviations ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual

AbstractThe utility of aggregating data from near-surface meteorological networks for initiating dispersion models is examined by using data from the “WeatherBug” network that is operated by Earth Networks, Inc. WeatherBug instruments are typically mounted 2–3 m above the eaves of buildings and thus are more representative of the immediate surroundings than of conditions over the broader area. This study focuses on subnetworks of WeatherBug sites that are within circles of varying radius about selected stations of the DCNet program. DCNet is a Washington, D.C., research program of the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory. The aggregation of data within varying-sized circles of 3–10-km radius yields average velocities and velocity-component standard deviations that are largely independent of the number of stations reporting—provided that number exceeds about 10. Given this finding, variances of wind components are aggregated from arrays of WeatherBug stations within a 5-km radius of selected central DCNet locations, with on average 11 WeatherBug stations per array. The total variance of wind components from the surface (WeatherBug) subnetworks is taken to be the sum of two parts: the temporal variance is the average of the conventional wind-component variances at each site and the spatial variance is based on the velocity-component averages of the individual sites. These two variances (and the standard deviations derived from them) are found to be similar. Moreover, the total wind-component variance is comparable to that observed at the DCNet reference stations. The near-surface rooftop wind velocities are about 35% of the magnitudes of the DCNet measurements. Limited additional data indicate that these results can be extended to New York City.

scholarly journals Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

2016 ◽  
Vol 114 (2) ◽  
pp. E122-E131 ◽  
Author(s):  
April M. Melvin ◽  
Peter Larsen ◽  
Brent Boehlert ◽  
James E. Neumann ◽  
Paul Chinowsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coastal Erosion ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Permafrost Thaw ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Southcentral Alaska

Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80–100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5.

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