Climate Change effects on the River Discharge in Bulgaria

The impact of future climate change under IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 on hydrological regimes in plain catchments up to 650 m high and in mountainous areas of Bulgaria is discussed. A hydrological simulation models (TUWmodel) were calibrated on recorded data and &#8216;forced&#8217; in the selected scenarios with precipitation and air temperature data from ALADIN 5.2, a local version of the French global atmospheric model ARPEGE, downscaled to a grid of 12 km. Simulations for the future periods 2013-2042, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 are compared to the flows in the reference period 1976-2005.Results indicate increased seasonality of flows, with noticeably drier summers and increase of river discharge in winter. In most of the cases the analysis of extreme events suggests significant increases in the frequency of both high&#8208; and low&#8208;flow events. The change in the extreme runoff with a large repetition period required for the design of flood protection structures and systems has been investigated in regions with different mechanisms for flood generation. With the push of RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 scenarios the significant increase in flood peaks is observed in most of the river basins. There is a general trend of decreasing runoff with a 95% probability of exceedance.

Climate change simulation and impacts on extreme events of rainfall and storm water in the Zayandeh Rud Catchment

Resources Environment and Information Engineering ◽

10.25082/reie.2021.01.001 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

pp. 100-110

Author(s):

Safieh Javadinejad ◽

◽

Rebwar Dara ◽

Forough Jafary ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Storm Water ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Future Time ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

Current Period ◽

Future Time Period ◽

The Impact ◽

Runoff Model

Nowadays, one of the most significant problems is that to recognize how the severity of heavy precipitation and floods may alter in future time in comparison with the current period. The purpose of this research is to understand the impact of future climate change on storm water and probability of maximum flood for future time period. Zayandeh rud river basin in Iran is selected as a case study. Forecast of future climatic parameters based on temperature and precipitation of the upcoming period (2006-2040) is completed with using the HadCM3 model and based on RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 emission patterns. Also, climate change model is downscaled statistically with applying LARS-WG. In the next step, the probable of maximum precipitation is measured through synoptic method and then, in order to model maximum storm water under the climate change effects, the HEC-HMS for simulating rainfall-runoff model is used. Also, the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is applied to model snow melting. The results of this research indicate the maximum of probable precipitation in the basin for the period of 2006-2040 under the scenario RCP 2.6, can rise by 5% and by the scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 can decrease by 5% and 10%, respectively in comparison with the current period 1970-2005.

Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-021-01799-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Susanne Rolinski ◽

Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽

Georg Guggenberger ◽

Norbert Bischoff ◽

Irina Kurganova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Arable Land ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change Scenarios on Ground Subsidence

Water ◽

10.3390/w12010219 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 219 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara ◽

David Pulido-Velazquez ◽

Rosa María Mateos ◽

Pablo Ezquerro

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Subsidence ◽

Ground Subsidence ◽

Lower Percentage ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Fine Grained ◽

Fine Grained Material ◽

In this work, we developed a new method to assess the impact of climate change (CC) scenarios on land subsidence related to groundwater level depletion in detrital aquifers. The main goal of this work was to propose a parsimonious approach that could be applied for any case study. We also evaluated the methodology in a case study, the Vega de Granada aquifer (southern Spain). Historical subsidence rates were estimated using remote sensing techniques (differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar, DInSAR). Local CC scenarios were generated by applying a bias correction approach. An equifeasible ensemble of the generated projections from different climatic models was also proposed. A simple water balance approach was applied to assess CC impacts on lumped global drawdowns due to future potential rainfall recharge and pumping. CC impacts were propagated to drawdowns within piezometers by applying the global delta change observed with the lumped assessment. Regression models were employed to estimate the impacts of these drawdowns in terms of land subsidence, as well as to analyze the influence of the fine-grained material in the aquifer. The results showed that a more linear behavior was observed for the cases with lower percentage of fine-grained material. The mean increase of the maximum subsidence rates in the considered wells for the future horizon (2016–2045) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5 was 54%. The main advantage of the proposed method is its applicability in cases with limited information. It is also appropriate for the study of wide areas to identify potential hot spots where more exhaustive analyses should be performed. The method will allow sustainable adaptation strategies in vulnerable areas during drought-critical periods to be assessed.

Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Alizée Chemison ◽

Gilles Ramstein ◽

Adrian M. Tompkins ◽

Dimitri Defrance ◽

Guigone Camus ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Malaria Transmission ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Transmission Risk ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Risk ◽

System A ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

AbstractStudies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments.

Predicted Future Benefits for an Endemic Rodent in the Irano-Turanian Region

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli9010016 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 16

Author(s):

Suzanna Meeussen ◽

Anouschka Hof

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Geographic Range ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Distribution Ranges ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Suitable Area ◽

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.

Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions

Bulletin of Entomological Research ◽

10.1017/s0007485321000195 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-9

Author(s):

Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos ◽

Cesar Augusto Marchioro

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Linear Model ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Temperature Dependent ◽

Dependent Development ◽

Degree Day ◽

Non Linear ◽

Abstract The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

Irrigation water requirements for seed corn and coffee under potential climate change scenarios

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2015.025 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 39-51 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Ali Fares ◽

Ripendra Awal ◽

Samira Fares ◽

Alton B. Johnson ◽

Hector Valenzuela

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Irrigation Water ◽

Co2 Emission ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Deep Percolation ◽

Canopy Interception ◽

Water Requirements ◽

Seed Corn ◽

The impact of potential future climate change scenarios on the irrigation water requirements (IRRs) of two major agricultural crops (coffee and seed corn) in Hawai'i was studied using the Irrigation Management System (IManSys) model. In addition to IRRs calculations, IManSys calculates runoff, deep percolation, canopy interception, and effective rainfall based on plant growth parameters, site specific soil hydrological properties, irrigation system efficiency, and long-term daily weather data. Irrigation water requirements of two crops were simulated using historical climate data and different levels of atmospheric CO2 (330, 550, 710 and 970 ppm), temperature (+1.1 and +6.4 °C) and precipitation (±5, ±10 and ±20%) chosen based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 projections under reference, B1, A1B1 and A1F1 emission scenarios. IRRs decreased as CO2 emission increased. The average percentage decrease in IRRs for seed corn is higher than that of coffee. However, runoff, rain canopy interception, and deep percolation below the root zone increased as precipitation increased. Canopy interception and drainage increased with increased CO2 emission. Evapotranspiration responded positively to air temperature rise, and as a result, IRRs increased as well. Further studies using crop models will predict crop yield responses to these different irrigation scenarios.

Early Holocene ocean conditions off the Zachariæ Isstrøm, Northeast Greenland

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15076 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Joanna Davies ◽

Anders Møller Mathiasen ◽

Kristiane Kristensen ◽

Christof Pearce ◽

Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Atlantic Water ◽

The Arctic ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Polar Regions ◽

Ice Shelf ◽

Outlet Glacier ◽

The polar regions exhibit some of the most visible signs of climate change globally; annual mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has quadrupled in recent decades, from 51 &#177; 65 Gt yr&#8722;1 (1992-2001) to 211 &#177; 37 Gt yr&#8722;1 (2002-2011). This can partly be attributed to the widespread retreat and speed-up of marine-terminating glaciers. The Zachariae Isstr&#248;m (ZI) is an outlet glacier of the Northeast Greenland Ice Steam (NEGIS), one of the largest ice streams of the GrIS (700km), draining approximately 12% of the ice sheet interior. Observations show that the ZI began accelerating in 2000, resulting in the collapse of the floating ice shelf between 2002 and 2003. By 2014, the ice shelf extended over an area of 52km2, a 95% decrease in area since 2002, where it extended over 1040km2. Paleo-reconstructions provide an opportunity to extend observational records in order to understand the oceanic and climatic processes governing the position of the grounding zone of marine terminating glaciers and the extent of floating ice shelves. Such datasets are thus necessary if we are to constrain the impact of future climate change projections on the Arctic cryosphere.A multi-proxy approach, involving grain size, geochemical, foraminiferal and sedimentary analysis was applied to marine sediment core DA17-NG-ST8-92G, collected offshore of the ZI, on &#160;the Northeast Greenland Shelf. The aim was to reconstruct changes in the extent of the ZI and the palaeoceanographic conditions throughout the Early to Mid Holocene (c.a. 12,500-5,000 cal. yrs. BP). Evidence from the analysis of these datasets indicates that whilst there has been no grounded ice at the site over the last 12,500 years, the ice shelf of the ZI extended as a floating ice shelf over the site between 12,500 and 9,200 cal. yrs. BP, with the grounding line further inland from our study site. This was followed by a retreat in the ice shelf extent during the Holocene Thermal Maximum; this was likely to have been governed, in part, by basal melting driven by Atlantic Water (AW) recirculated from Svalbard or from the Arctic Ocean. Evidence from benthic foraminifera suggest that there was a shift from the dominance of AW to Polar Water at around 7,500 cal. yrs. BP, although the ice shelf did not expand again despite of this cooling of subsurface waters.

Impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

La Houille Blanche ◽

10.1051/lhb/2018010 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 70-79 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Le Viet Thang ◽

Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽

Ho Long Phi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Quality ◽

River Basin ◽

Sediment Load ◽

Swat Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Nutrient Load ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.

Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Impact of climate change on groundwater point discharge: backflooding of karstic springs (Loiret, France)

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-8-2235-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 2235-2262

Author(s):

E. Joigneaux ◽

P. Albéric ◽

H. Pauwels ◽

C. Pagé ◽

L. Terray ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Surface Water ◽

Groundwater Quality ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

Large Scale ◽

Weather Type ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact ◽

Abstract. Under certain hydrological conditions it is possible for spring flow in karst systems to be reversed. When this occurs, the resulting invasion by surface water, i.e. the backflooding, represents a serious threat to groundwater quality because the surface water could well be contaminated. Here we examine the possible impact of future climate change on the occurrences of backflooding in a specific karst system, having first established the occurrence of such events in the selected study area over the past 40 yr. It would appear that backflooding has been more frequent since the 1980s, and that it is apparently linked to river flow variability on the pluri-annual scale. The avenue that we adopt here for studying recent and future variations of these events is based on a downscaling algorithm relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to local precipitation spatial patterns. The large-scale atmospheric circulation is viewed as a set of quasi-stationary and recurrent states, called weather types, and its variability as the transition between them. Based on a set of climate model projections, simulated changes in weather-type occurrence for the end of the century suggests that backflooding events can be expected to decrease in 2075–2099. If such is the case, then the potential risk for groundwater quality in the area will be greatly reduced compared to the current situation. Finally, our results also show the potential interest of the weather-type based downscaling approach for examining the impact of climate change on hydrological systems.