Future water supply and demand in the Peruvian Andes: assessment and implications

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Wade ◽  
Harvey J.E. Rodda ◽  
Nicholas P. Branch ◽  
Marcos Bruzzone ◽  
Alex Herrera ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Peruvian Andes ◽  
Crop Water Demand

<p>The aim of the ACCESS project is to help assess the impact of climate change on socio-economic development in the Peruvian Andes, focused on the Ancash region, and to help identify adaptation strategies. As part of this larger effort, we are aiming to understand how climate change will impact: water availability and quality; farming, lives and livelihoods; and to work with local communities to plan adaptation strategies. The current water supply and demand in two catchments in the Cordillera Blanca and two in the Cordillera Negra is being assessed to understand the background water context in contrasting glaciated and non-glaciated landscapes. Based on detailed surveys of the ancient and modern waterscapes led by South American archaeologists, supplemented by more recent data from hydrological measurement and ethnographic surveys and discussions with local communities, a nuanced picture is emerging of how communities have adapted to past and current climate conditions, and potential solutions are being co-developed with the local communities to maintain and improve livelihoods in situations with low rainfall in the Negra and glacial retreat in the Blanca. Crop water demand during the dry season in the Rio Ancash (114 km<sup>2</sup>) catchment has been assessed using the CROPWAT model and local climate and crop survey data, and the present-day water supply assessed through the gauging of rivers and irrigation canal flows, and measurement of water quality and isotopes. Preliminary results, for the Rio Ancash, suggest the amount of water available for dry season irrigation on the mid-slopes is approximately 70 mm over the cropped area (57 km<sup>2</sup>) which appears to be less than the crop water demand, though this estimate may change as more data is processed. Initial climate projections suggestion an increase in water as the glaciers melt until around 2050. The dry season crop water demand and supply beyond 2050 is currently being estimated.</p>

Impact of climate change on surface water availability and crop water demand for the sub-watershed of Abbay Basin, Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1859-1875 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alemu Ademe Bekele ◽  
Santosh Murlidhar Pingale ◽  
Samuel Dagalo Hatiye ◽  
Alemayehu Kasaye Tilahun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Crop Water Demand

scholarly journals Changes in Climatic Water Availability and Crop Water Demand for Iraq Region

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saleem A. Salman ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid ◽  
Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan ◽  
Mohammed Sanusi Shiru ◽  
Nadhir Al-Ansari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Early Period ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
The North ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Crop Water Demand

Decreases in climatic water availability (CWA) and increases in crop water demand (CWD) in the background of climate change are a major concern in arid regions because of less water availability and higher irrigation requirements for crop production. Assessment of the spatiotemporal changes in CWA and CWD is important for the adaptation of irrigated agriculture to climate change for such regions. The recent changes in CWA and CWD during growing seasons of major crops have been assessed for Iraq where rapid changes in climate have been noticed in recent decades. Gridded precipitation of the global precipitation climatology center (GPCC) and gridded temperature of the climate research unit (CRU) having a spatial resolution of 0.5°, were used for the estimation of CWA and CWD using simple water balance equations. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test and one of its modified versions which can consider long-term persistence in time series, were used to estimate trends in CWA for the period 1961–2013. In addition, the changes in CWD between early (1961–1990) and late (1984–2013) periods were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank test. The results revealed a deficit in water in all the seasons in most of the country while a surplus in the northern highlands in all the seasons except summer was observed. A significant reduction in the annual amount of CWA at a rate of −1 to −13 mm/year was observed at 0.5 level of significance in most of Iraq except in the north. Decreasing trends in CWA in spring (−0.4 to −1.8 mm/year), summer (−5.0 to −11 mm/year) and autumn (0.3 to −0.6 mm/year), and almost no change in winter was observed. The CWA during the growing season of summer crop (millet and sorghum) was found to decrease significantly in most of Iraq except in the north. The comparison of CWD revealed an increase in agricultural water needs in the late period (1984–2013) compared to the early period (1961–1990) by 1.0–8.0, 1.0–14, 15–30, 14–27 and 0.0–10 mm for wheat, barley, millet, sorghum and potato, respectively. The highest increase in CWD was found in April, October, June, June and April for wheat, barley, millet, sorghum and potato, respectively.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROP WATER DEMAND IN THE OKANAGAN VALLEY, B.C., CANADA

2004 ◽  
pp. 273-278
Author(s):  
D. Neilsen ◽  
C.A.S Smith ◽  
G. Frank ◽  
W.O. Koch ◽  
P. Parchomchuk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Crop Water Demand ◽  
Okanagan Valley

scholarly journals Historical trends in Crop Water demand over Semi-Arid region of Syria

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajab Homsi ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid ◽  
Zafar Iqbal ◽  
Atif Muhammad Ali ◽  
Ghaith Falah Ziarh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The North ◽  
Crop Water Demand ◽  
Semi Arid Region

Abstract Climate change has caused a shift in aridity, particularly in the dry regions of the world which may subsequently affect several sectors predominantly the agricultural and water resources. This research examined the climate change effects on crop water demand (CWD) in Syria over the period 1951–2010. Given the lack of observed data, this analysis relied on (GPCC) precipitation and (CRU) temperature data from 1951 to 2010. Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) at each grid was calculated using Penman-Monteith method and FAO-56 model was used to calculate the crop water demand (CWD). The analysis revealed that CWD in Syria increased from 1981 to 2010 when compared to 1951–1980.The increase in CWD has been found for all the crops except wheat, whereas the maximum changes are found during April, and May. The differences in CWD for Barley between the two periods were found to be in the range of -20 to 40 mm. A decrease in CWD observed in the south of the country. However, a rise in 0 to 20 mm range was also discovered in the north. The CWD for wheat was found to decline in most parts of the country. However, it was found to increase in the north. The increase in CWD for barley and wheat has increased agricultural water stress in the region. Several agriculture planning needs to be developed in accordance with the expected future climate changes in order to maintain the agricultural production in the region.

scholarly journals Assessment of Future Water Demand and Supply under IPCC Climate Change and Socio-Economic Scenarios, Using a Combination of Models in Ourika Watershed, High Atlas, Morocco

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1751 ◽  
Author(s):  
Houssam Ayt Ougougdal ◽  
Mohamed Yacoubi Khebiza ◽  
Mohammed Messouli ◽  
Asia Lachir
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
High Atlas ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Ourika Watershed ◽  
The Impact

Climate change will affect the water resources system, on global and regional levels. Over the past thirty years, the High Atlas Mountains in Morocco have experienced severe droughts, which causes a decrease in water supply that affects both agriculture and the urban water system. In this paper, we assess the impact of climate change and socio-economic activities on water supply and demand in the Ourika watershed (High Atlas of Morocco), then we evaluate the efficiency and sustainability of regional adaptation strategies for water supply management. For this, we simulate and analyze the future water situation using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and the water assessment and planning tool (WEAP). After the model’s calibration and validation, the precipitation, minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures, water demand and unmet water demand were projected for 2100 horizon, using different climate change scenarios. The results revealed that the model’s performance, calibration and validation were found to be satisfactory. The analysis shows that the mean precipitation will decrease by 49.25% and 34.61% by 2100, under A2 and B2 emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The projected mean Tmax and Tmin will be warmer than the baseline period, with Tmax increasing by 4.2 °C (A2) and 3.6 °C (B2), and Tmin by 3.5 °C (A2) and 2.9 °C (B2) by 2100. The results also show that water demand and the unmet water demand will increase in all scenarios, the pressure on water resources will increase, leading to water scarcity. The results reveal that, under the influence of climate change, future unmet water demand is expected to reach 64 million cubic meters (MCM) by 2100. The results demonstrate that the assessments of the proposed adaptation strategies are effective, but not sufficient to ensure water sustainability for the Ourika watershed.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Demand in Rheraya Watershed (Morocco), with Potential Adaptation Strategies

Water ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saloua Rochdane ◽  
Barbara Reichert ◽  
Mohammed Messouli ◽  
Abdelaziz Babqiqi ◽  
Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Potential Adaptation ◽  
Water Supply And Demand

scholarly journals GIS միջավայրում ոռոգման ջրի պահանջի հիմնավորումը կլիմայի փոփոխության պայմաններում

2021 ◽  
pp. 9-15
Author(s):  
A. G. Yeghiazaryan ◽  
P. S. Efendyan ◽  
G. M. Yeghiazaryan ◽  
L. G. Tovmasyan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Water Source ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Cereal Crops ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Spatial Changes ◽  
Crop Water Demand ◽  
Maximum Water ◽  
Gis Environment

The studies in GIS environment have been conducted on the example of Lori region. The investigations are based on the spatial changes of irrigation zones and agro-climatic conditions of Armenia. During the research, irrigation water and crop water demand has been estimated in the following climate change conditions: T +2° C and 0.9 P (T - estimated air temperature, P - atmosphertic precipitations). In case of 5 %, 25 %, 50 %, 75 % and 95 % atmospheric precipitations the water intake from water source has been changed. Maximum water requirement for vegetable and cereal crops, as well as for perennial plantations per irrigation zones has been forecasted.

scholarly journals Supply and Demand Forecasting of Water Resource Coupling System in Upstream Yangtze River under Changing Environmental Conditions

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 640
Author(s):  
Sijing Lou ◽  
Li Mo ◽  
Jianzhong Zhou ◽  
Yongqiang Wang ◽  
Wenhao He
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Coupled System ◽  
Central China ◽  
Stress Threshold

The upstream Yangtze River is located in the southwest of central China, where it flows through several ecosystems and densely populated regions that constitute a unique complex coupled system. To determine how the characteristics of supply and demand in a water-coupled system will vary under the influence of climate change and human activity in this area in the next 85 years, the upper Yangtze basin was considered as the study area and was divided into seven sub-basins according to seven main control sections: Shigu, Panzhihua, Xiluodu, Xiangjiaba, Zhutuo, Cuntan, and Yichang; a method for water supply and demand research considering climate change was proposed. Based on simulated runoff in the study area under changing environmental conditions, this study analyzed the available water supply and constructed a long-term water demand forecasting model using the classified water use index method under macro regulation in the study area from 2016 to 2100. The results show that the total water demand in the upstream Yangtze River appears to first increase and then decrease in 2016–2100 and will reach its peak around 2028. The ecological pressure in the upstream Yangtze River increases gradually from upstream to downstream but will not reach the surface water utilization stress threshold (hereinafter referred to as stress threshold) for the next 85 years. The contradiction between monthly supply and demand is more prominent under ecological restrictions. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, water demand exceeds the stress threshold in each sub-basin across several months (mainly March, April, and May), and the water demand nearly reaches the damage threshold in May as the basin extends below the Zhutuo section.

Future Climatic Patterns and Sustainability of Current Cropping Patterns in a Water-Scarce River Basin of Eastern India 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Smaranika Mahapatra ◽  
Madan Kumar Jha
Keyword(s):  
Water Demand ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Eastern India ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Cropping Patterns ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
Crop Water Demand ◽  
Water Scarce

<p>Agricultural sector, being the largest consumer of water is greatly affected by climatic variability and disasters. Most parts of the world already face an enormous challenge in meeting competitive and conflicting multi-sector water demands. Climate change has further exacerbated this challenge by putting the sustainability of current cropping patterns and irrigation practices in question. For ensuring climate-resilient food production, it is crucial to examine the patterns of the projected climate and potential impacts on the agricultural sector at a basin scale. Hence, this study was carried out for an already water-scarce basin, Rushikulya River basin (RRB), located in the coastal region of eastern India. The bias-corrected NorESM2-MM general circulation model of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) was used in this study under four shared socioeconomic pathway (SSPs) scenarios, namely SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585. The projected climatic parameters and crop water demands of the basin were analyzed assuming existing cropping pattern in the future. Analysis of the results reveals a significant and rapid increase in the temperature at a rate of 0.02-0.5ºC/year during 2026-2100 under all SSPs except SSP126, whereas the rainfall is expected to increase slightly during 2026-2100 as compared to the baseline period (1990-2016), especially in the far future (2076-2100) under all the SSPs. In contrast, monsoon rainfall is predicted to decrease under SSP245 and SSP370, while a slight increase in the monsoon rainfall is evident under SSP126 and SSP585. Although the rainy days will decrease slightly in the future 25-year time window, the number of heavy rainfall events is predicted to increase by two to three times. Also, retrospective analysis of rainfall and evapotranspiration suggested an existence of rainfall deficit (rainfall-evapotranspiration) in the basin throughout the year, except during July to September. The rainfall deficit in the basin during 2026-2100 is found to remain more or less same in the non-monsoon season, except for the month of October under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios where deficit increases by two folds. Rainfall is expected to be in surplus by 4 to 5 times higher under all SSPs except for SSP245. As to the evapotranspiration, an insignificant increasing trend is observed under future climatic condition with only 2 to 4% rise in the crop water demand compared to the baseline period. As the basin is already water stressed during most months in a year under baseline and future climatic conditions, continuing the current practice of monsoon paddy dominant cultivation in the basin will further aggravate this situation. The results of this study will be helpful in formulating sustainable irrigation plans and adaptation measures to address climate-induced water stress in the basin.</p><p><strong>Keywords:</strong> Climate change; CMIP6; SSP; Monsoon rainfall; Temperature; Crop water demand.</p>

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