Supply and Demand Forecasting of Water Resource Coupling System in Upstream Yangtze River under Changing Environmental Conditions

The upstream Yangtze River is located in the southwest of central China, where it flows through several ecosystems and densely populated regions that constitute a unique complex coupled system. To determine how the characteristics of supply and demand in a water-coupled system will vary under the influence of climate change and human activity in this area in the next 85 years, the upper Yangtze basin was considered as the study area and was divided into seven sub-basins according to seven main control sections: Shigu, Panzhihua, Xiluodu, Xiangjiaba, Zhutuo, Cuntan, and Yichang; a method for water supply and demand research considering climate change was proposed. Based on simulated runoff in the study area under changing environmental conditions, this study analyzed the available water supply and constructed a long-term water demand forecasting model using the classified water use index method under macro regulation in the study area from 2016 to 2100. The results show that the total water demand in the upstream Yangtze River appears to first increase and then decrease in 2016–2100 and will reach its peak around 2028. The ecological pressure in the upstream Yangtze River increases gradually from upstream to downstream but will not reach the surface water utilization stress threshold (hereinafter referred to as stress threshold) for the next 85 years. The contradiction between monthly supply and demand is more prominent under ecological restrictions. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, water demand exceeds the stress threshold in each sub-basin across several months (mainly March, April, and May), and the water demand nearly reaches the damage threshold in May as the basin extends below the Zhutuo section.

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Predicting water demand: a review of the methods employed and future possibilities

Water Science & Technology Water Supply ◽

10.2166/ws.2019.122 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (8) ◽

pp. 2179-2198 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Gustavo de Souza Groppo ◽

Marcelo Azevedo Costa ◽

Marcelo Libânio

Keyword(s):

Artificial Intelligence ◽

Water Supply ◽

Water Demand ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Demand Forecasting ◽

System Management ◽

Water Demand Forecasting ◽

Combination Of Methods ◽

Applications Of Machine Learning

Abstract The balance between water supply and demand requires efficient water supply system management techniques. This balance is achieved through operational actions, many of which require the application of forecasting concepts and tools. In this article, recent research on urban water demand forecasting employing artificial intelligence is reviewed, aiming to present the ‘state of the art’ on the subject and provide some guidance regarding methods and models to research and professional sanitation companies. The review covers the models developed using standard statistical techniques, such as linear regression or time-series analysis, or techniques based on Soft Computing. This review shows that the studies are, mostly, focused on the management of the operating systems. There is, therefore, room for long-term forecasts. It is worth noting that there is no global model that surpasses all the methods for all cases, it being necessary to study each region separately, evaluating the strengths of each model or the combination of methods. The use of statistical applications of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence methodologies has grown considerably in recent years. However, there is still room for improvement with regard to water demand forecasting.

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Future water supply and demand in the Peruvian Andes: assessment and implications

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4869 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Andrew J. Wade ◽

Harvey J.E. Rodda ◽

Nicholas P. Branch ◽

Marcos Bruzzone ◽

Alex Herrera ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Supply ◽

Water Demand ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Local Communities ◽

Dry Season ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Crop Water ◽

Peruvian Andes ◽

Crop Water Demand

The aim of the ACCESS project is to help assess the impact of climate change on socio-economic development in the Peruvian Andes, focused on the Ancash region, and to help identify adaptation strategies. As part of this larger effort, we are aiming to understand how climate change will impact: water availability and quality; farming, lives and livelihoods; and to work with local communities to plan adaptation strategies. The current water supply and demand in two catchments in the Cordillera Blanca and two in the Cordillera Negra is being assessed to understand the background water context in contrasting glaciated and non-glaciated landscapes. Based on detailed surveys of the ancient and modern waterscapes led by South American archaeologists, supplemented by more recent data from hydrological measurement and ethnographic surveys and discussions with local communities, a nuanced picture is emerging of how communities have adapted to past and current climate conditions, and potential solutions are being co-developed with the local communities to maintain and improve livelihoods in situations with low rainfall in the Negra and glacial retreat in the Blanca. Crop water demand during the dry season in the Rio Ancash (114 km2) catchment has been assessed using the CROPWAT model and local climate and crop survey data, and the present-day water supply assessed through the gauging of rivers and irrigation canal flows, and measurement of water quality and isotopes. Preliminary results, for the Rio Ancash, suggest the amount of water available for dry season irrigation on the mid-slopes is approximately 70 mm over the cropped area (57 km2) which appears to be less than the crop water demand, though this estimate may change as more data is processed. Initial climate projections suggestion an increase in water as the glaciers melt until around 2050. The dry season crop water demand and supply beyond 2050 is currently being estimated.

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Mathematical Models for Predicting and Managing Water Resources — The Case of China in 2025

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.448-453.995 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 448-453 ◽

pp. 995-1001

Author(s):

Ning Na Wang ◽

Qin Lin Zhou

Keyword(s):

Water Supply ◽

Water Demand ◽

Optimal Allocation ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Grey System ◽

Allocation Model ◽

Water Supply Management ◽

Generate Solution ◽

Major Factors

An effective management of water supply is critically significant to a countrys water utilities, and accurate prediction of water supply and demand is of key importance for water supply management. The objectives of this paper are to use Grey System Model (GSM) and Linear Regression Model to forecast the water demand and water supply respectively in China 2025, and then propose a new Optimal Allocation Model (OAM) to generate solution so that analysts and decision makers can gain insight and understanding. The two predictive models take into account four major factors including domestic development, agriculture, industries and eco-environment, calculating a deficit between water demand and water supply in China 2025. Then the OAM, which considers desalinization, irrigation saving and urban recycling, provides a feasible solution to fill the gap and an effectual management of water supply.

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Analysis on Water Resources Supply and Demand Balance of Rural Land Remediation Project in Baishan City, Jilin Province

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.295-298.2132 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 295-298 ◽

pp. 2132-2137

Author(s):

Xiao Ling Xu ◽

Xu Feng Liang ◽

Xiu Juan Liang ◽

Chang Lai Xiao

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Water Supply ◽

Water Availability ◽

Water Demand ◽

Influence Factor ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Rural Land ◽

Project Area ◽

Groundwater Availability ◽

Relevant Calculation

Water resources are an important influence factor of land remediation. As support of food production, analysis of water resources supply and demand balance is an important part and technical support of the construction. According to some relevant calculation formulas on water resources assessment, after forecast of water demand and the calculation of water supply, in the project area of the demonstration construction of whole rural land remediation in Baishan City, the average water availability for many years is 8990.1 thousand m3 each year, in which surface water availability is 7210.6 thousand m3, groundwater availability is 1579.4 thousand m3. Water demand is 5552.4 thousand m3 in 2015, in which water demand for life 4165.2 thousand m3; water demand for agricultural irrigation is 1387.2 thousand m3. Water supply is more than water demand; the results show that there is a slight surplus of water resources in the region. The basic supply-demand balance can be achieved in conditions of the design of water supply project in the project area.

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Water-Centric Nexus Approach for the Agriculture and Forest Sectors in Response to Climate Change in the Korean Peninsula

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy11081657 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (8) ◽

pp. 1657

Author(s):

Chul-Hee Lim

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Water Supply ◽

Water Demand ◽

Korean Peninsula ◽

Spatial Models ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Agricultural Water ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

The Future

Climate change has inherent multidisciplinary characteristics, and predicting the future of a single field of work has a limit. Therefore, this study proposes a water-centric nexus approach for the agriculture and forest sectors for improving the response to climate change in the Korean Peninsula. Two spatial models, i.e., Environmental Policy Integrated Climate and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs, were used to assess the extent of changes in agricultural water demand, forest water supply, and their balance at the watershed level in the current and future climatic conditions. Climate changed has increased the agricultural water demand and forest water supply significantly in all future scenarios and periods. Comparing the results with RCP8.5 2070s and the baseline, the agricultural water demand and forest water supply increased by 35% and 28%, respectively. Water balance assessment at the main watershed level in the Korean Peninsula revealed that although most scenarios of the future water supply increases offset the demand growth, a risk to water balance exists in case of a low forest ratio or smaller watershed. For instance, the western plains, which are the granary regions of South and North Korea, indicate a higher risk than other areas. These results show that the land-use balance can be an essential factor in a water-centric adaptation to climate change. Ultimately, the water-centric nexus approach can make synergies by overcoming increasing water demands attributable to climate change.

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The optimal allocation of water resources oriented to prioritizing ecological needs using multiple schemes in the Shaying River Basin (Henan Section), China

Water Science & Technology Water Supply ◽

10.2166/ws.2021.331 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hang Li ◽

Xiao-Ning Qu ◽

Jie Tao ◽

Chang-Hong Hu ◽

Qi-Ting Zuo

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Water Supply ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Conservation ◽

Water Demand ◽

Optimal Allocation ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Allocation Model ◽

Water Supply And Demand ◽

Ecological Objectives

Abstract China is actively exploring water resources management considering ecological priorities. The Shaying River Basin (Henan Section) serves as an important grain production base in China. However, conflicts for water between humans and the environment are becoming increasingly prominent. The present study analyzed the optimal allocation of water while considering ecological priorities in the Shaying River Basin (Henan Section). The ecological water demand was calculated by the Tennant and the representative station methods; then, based on the predicted water supply and demand in 2030, an optimal allocation model was established, giving priority to meeting ecological objectives while including social and comprehensive economic benefit objectives. After solving the model, the optimal results of three established schemes were obtained. This revealed that scheme 1 and scheme 2 failed to satisfy the water demand of the study area in 2030 by only the current conditions and strengthening water conservation, respectively. Scheme 3 was the best scheme, which could balance the water supply and demand by adding new water supply based on strengthening water conservation and maximizing the benefits. Therefore, the actual water allocation in 2030 is forecast to be 7.514 billion (7.514 × 109) m3. This study could help basin water management departments deal with water use and supply.

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Scenario Analysis of Water Supply and Demand using WEAP Model: A Case of Yala Catchment, Kenya

10.31219/osf.io/vawqm ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Jared Ouma okungu

Keyword(s):

Water Supply ◽

Water Demand ◽

Environmental Changes ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

High Growth ◽

Reference Scenario ◽

Activity Levels ◽

Time Step ◽

Weap Model ◽

Water Supply And Demand

The counties traversed by Yala River Catchment in Kenya have been constrained by acute shortages of water resources because of the declining stream flows, which is occasioned by environmental changes, increasing population and changing land uses. This study applied Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model to evaluate past trends and simulate current demand scenarios for the purposes of planning by authorities in regard to future use. The study used historical data (1970-2015) to assess water supply and demand in the catchment for the period 2016 to 2045 by simulation. Calibration and validation were each performed on 10-year streamflow datasets (1991-2000 and 2001-2010 respectively), drawn from 4 gauging stations. Simulations were then conducted for the scenarios namely: Reference (at 2.8% growth rate), High Growth (3.2%), High Growth (3.5%), and Moderated Growth (2.2%). The categories of water demand evaluated in WEAP included: Domestic-Institutional-Municipal, Agriculture, and Industry uses. In a 5-year time-step, WEAP demonstrated resultant increase in water demand for year 2020 by 7.46% from 2016 at Reference Scenario. WEAP further simulated a gradual increase in water demand during subsequent years. This trend would continue for the rest of the scenarios but with variations occasioned by adjustment of variables in WEAP such as population growth rates, monthly variations, annual activity levels, water use rates, water losses and reuse rates, industrial production units, agricultural acreages, and varied demand sites. In conclusion, there were demonstrated substantial increases in water demands within individual scenarios between 2016 to 2045, but these increases were significantly different scenario-by-scenario. The study recommends that supply and demand measures be employed with the aim of regulating activity levels, losses and consumptions so as to meet demands in case any of the studied scenarios would be applicable.

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Integrated Modeling of Water Supply and Demand Under Climate Change Impacts and Management Options in Tributary Basin of Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia

Water ◽

10.3390/w12092462 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (9) ◽

pp. 2462

Author(s):

Tharo Touch ◽

Chantha Oeurng ◽

Yanan Jiang ◽

Ali Mokhtar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Supply ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Environmental Flow ◽

Integrated Modeling ◽

Supply Management ◽

Management Options ◽

The Future

An integrated modeling approach analyzing water demand and supply balances under management options in a river basin is essential for the management and adaptive measures of water resources in the future. This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime by predicting the change in both monthly and seasonal streamflow, and identified water supply and demand relations under supply management options and environmental flow maintenance. To reach a better understanding of the consequences of possible climate change scenarios and adaptive management options on water supply, an integrated modeling approach was conducted by using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and water evaluation and planning model (WEAP). Future scenarios were developed for the future period: 2060s (2051–2070), using an ensemble of three general circulation model (GCM) simulations: GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R-CC, and IPSL-CM5A-MR, driven by the climate projection for representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 6.0 (medium emission scenario). The results indicated that, firstly, the future streamflow will decrease, resulting in a decline of future water availability. Secondly, water supply under natural flow conditions would support 46,167 ha of irrigation schemes and the water shortages will be more noticeable when environmental flow maintenance was considered. The study concludes that reservoir construction would be necessary for agriculture mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Furthermore, the water resources management options considering both supply and demand management are more effective and useful than supply management only, particularly in dealing with climate change impacts.

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Glacier sliding set by self-regulating feedback between friction and drainage efficiency

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1762 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Adrien Gilbert ◽

Florent Gimbert ◽

Kjetil Thøgersen ◽

Thomas Schuler ◽

Andreas Kääb

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Supply ◽

Numerical Models ◽

Water Pressure ◽

Water Discharge ◽

Coupled System ◽

Dynamical Response ◽

Main Process ◽

Friction Laws ◽

Basal Sliding

Glacier basal sliding accommodates most of glacier motion and is the main process behind glacier dynamic variability, able to substantially modulate glacier response to climate change. In particular, it controls glacier instabilities, surges, ice stream development and flow speeds of most glaciers on Earth. Paradoxically, glacier sliding remains one of the least understood processes in glacier physics due to the difficulty of accessing and observing the sub-glacial environment. In numerical models, sliding of glaciers is traditionally determined by friction laws interlinking basal shear stress, sliding velocity and water pressure. However, assessing the effects of water pressure on sliding remains a challenge due to the sparsity of appropriate data to validate coupled ice-flow/subglacial-hydrology models. We unify here the description of subglacial cavities transient dynamic for basal friction and sub-glacial hydrology and show how it interacts as a self-regulating coupled system. Our results are in striking agreement with observation from a unique multi-decadal record of basal sliding and water discharge in Argenti&#232;re Glacier (French Alps). We show that sliding speed of hard-bedded glaciers is set by the drainage efficiency necessary to accommodate the melt water supply rather than being driven by water pressure. We suggest that liquid water supply at the glacier base rather water pressure should be used to develop friction laws that include the effect subglacial hydrology. This will make glacier dynamical response to climate change more predictable.

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Present and future water security under socioeconomic and climate changes in the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5306 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Andres Goyburo ◽

Pedro Rau ◽

Waldo Lavado ◽

Fabian Drenkhan ◽

Wouter Buytaert

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Supply ◽

Water Demand ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Water Security ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Glacier Melt ◽

Current Water ◽

The Impact

This research assesses present (2009-2016) and future (until 2100) levels of water security taking into consideration socioeconomic and climate change scenarios using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) tool for semidistributed hydrological modeling. The study area covers the&#160; Vilcanota-Urubamba basin in the southern Peruvian Andes and presents a complex water demand context as a glacier-fed system.Current total water demand is estimated in 5.12E+9 m3/year and includes agriculture (6674.17 m3/year), domestic (7.79E+07m3/year), industrial (1.01E+06 m3/year) and energy (5.03e+9 m3/year) consumption. For assessing the current water supply, observed flow data is used to simulate and validate the model (also accounting for glacier melt contribution). The analysis of unmet water demand for the period 2016&#8211;2100 was computed using the soil moisture scheme of the WEAP model, which simulates the hydrological cycle and generates future scenarios for water demand. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth and increasing agriculture area) and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system.&#160;These results will allow for the first time to evaluate the impact of changes in glacier melt contributions on water security taking into account also changes in water demand.This study also further explores the importance of incorporating science and policy within a broader study of water security. As a result, it is expected to deliver high spatial resolution water demand maps and adaptation strategies for stakeholders. This research is part of the RAHU project as a new multidisciplinary collaboration between UK and Peruvian scientists.

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