The hydrological cycle in a warmer world: combined effects of changes in snowmelt and evaporation on Rhine discharge evaluated with the new dS2 model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joost Buitink ◽  
Adriaan J. Teuling
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Combined Effects ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Total Discharge ◽  
Snow And Ice

<p>Recent and projected changes in the climate are known to affect the hydrological cycle. Many studies have shown how these climate changes result in differences in for example, evaporation rates, melt of snow and ice, precipitation patterns and seasonality. Since these processes are influencing different parts of the hydrological cycle, the hydrological response as result of changes in climate can be rather complex (Buitink et al., 2019b). In this study, we investigate how the combined effects of changes in melt from frozen water and increased evaporation rates affect the hydrological response in the Rhine basin, using the new dS2 model (Buitink et al., 2019a). It is known that increased temperatures affect both the melt of frozen water and the energy available for evaporation. However, as temperatures will reach melting point earlier in the year, the contribution of meltwater to the total discharge will also peak earlier in the year. Contrary, evaporation will increase without strong changes in the seasonality. Since the Rhine depends for a significant fraction on meltwater from snow and ice during warm and dry summers, this change in timing can have significant impacts on the low flows. This study shows these effects both for the recent changes in climate, but also presents the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to the changes in the climate.</p><p> </p><p>Buitink, J., Melsen, L. A., Kirchner, J. W., and Teuling, A. J.: A distributed simple dynamical systems approach (dS2 v1.0) for computationally efficient hydrological modelling, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-150, in review, 2019a.</p><p>Buitink, J., Uijlenhoet, R., and Teuling, A. J.: Evaluating seasonal hydrological extremes in mesoscale (pre-)Alpine basins at coarse 0.5° and fine hyperresolution, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1609, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1593-2019, 2019b.</p>

STUDY OF POND STATUS IN INDIA : A REVIEW

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
V.K. YADAV ◽  
SONAM SHARMA ◽  
A.K. SRIVASTAVA ◽  
P.K. KHARE
Keyword(s):  
Fresh Water ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Conservation Strategy ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Human Use ◽  
Over Exploitation

Ponds are an important fresh water critical ecosystem for plants and animals providing goods and services including food, fodder, fish, irrigation, hydrological cycle, shelter, medicine, culture, aesthetic and recreation. Ponds cover less than 2 percent of worlds land surface. Ponds are important source of fresh water for human use. These are threatened by urbanization, industrialization, over exploitation, fragmentation, habitat destruction, pollution, illegal capturing of land and climate changes. These above factors have been destroying ponds very rapidly putting them in danger of extinction of a great number of local biodiversity. It is necessary to formulate a correct conservation strategy for pond restoration in order to meet the growing needs of fresh water by increasing the human population. Some measures have been compiled and proposed in the present review.

scholarly journals Characteristics of multi-annual variation of precipitation in areas particularly exposed to extreme phenomena. Part 1. The upper Vistula river basin

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 ◽  
pp. 00121
Author(s):  
Bernard Twaróg
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Annual Variation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Initial Section ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Vistula River

The study contains an analysis of precipitation, covering multiple profiles and based on the GPCC database that provides monthly mean values for the territory upper Vistula catchment. The analysis includes data for the period 1901-2010 with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° of geographic longitude and latitude. The initial section of the analysis contains an assessment of GPCC data accuracy for the territory of Poland and the period 1961-1990. The following sections include a data analysis in monthly profiles and hydrological cycle profiles, taking into account hydrological summer and hydrological winter. A cluster analysis is also included, with drought and flood periods indicated. The periodical nature of precipitation is assessed and the trends in climate changes calculated.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on Hydropower Resources in Gauged and Ungauged Lithuanian River Catchments

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3265
Author(s):  
Darius Jakimavičius ◽  
Gintaras Adžgauskas ◽  
Diana Šarauskienė ◽  
Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė
Keyword(s):  
River Runoff ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Resource ◽  
Hydroelectric Energy ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
The Future ◽  
River Catchments

Hydropower (potential and kinetic energy) is one of the most important renewable energy sources in the world. This energy is directly dependent on water resources and the hydrological cycle. Ongoing climate changes are likely to influence the availability/amount of this energy resource. The present study explores the relationship between climate changes and river runoff, projects future runoff in both gauged and ungauged river catchments, and then assesses how these alterations may affect the future hydropower resources in Lithuania. Runoff projections of the gauged rivers were evaluated applying Swedish Department of Climate hydrological model, and runoff of ungauged river catchments were estimated by created isoline maps of specific runoff. According to an ensemble of three climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, runoff and hydroelectric energy projections were evaluated for two future periods (2021–2040, 2081–2100). The results demonstrated a decrease in future river runoff. Especially significant changes are expected according to the most pessimistic RCP8.5 scenario at the end of the century. The projected changes are likely to bring a negative effect on hydropower production in the country. These findings could help understand what kind of benefits and challenges water resource managers may face in the future.

scholarly journals Statistical Analysis and Stochastic Modelling of Hydrological Extremes

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1861 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Tabari
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Stochastic Modelling ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Scale Models ◽  
Projected Changes

Analysis of hydrological extremes is challenging due to their rarity and small sample size and the interconnections between different types of extremes and gets further complicated by an untrustworthy representation of meso-scale processes involved in extreme events by coarse spatial and temporal scale models as well as biased or missing observations due to technical difficulties during extreme conditions. The special issue “Statistical Analysis and Stochastic Modelling of Hydrological Extremes”—motivated by the need to apply and develop innovative stochastic and statistical approaches to analyze hydrological extremes under current and future climate conditions —encompass 13 research papers. Case studies presented in the papers exploit a wide range of innovative techniques for hydrological extremes analyses. The papers focus on six topics: Historical changes in hydrological extremes, projected changes in hydrological extremes, downscaling of hydrological extremes, early warning and forecasting systems for drought and flood, interconnections of hydrological extremes and applicability of satellite data for hydrological studies. This Editorial provides an overview of the covered topics and reviews the case studies relevant for each topic.

scholarly journals A New Method for the Comparison of Trend Data with an Application to Water Vapor

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (12) ◽  
pp. 3124-3141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Mieruch ◽  
Stefan Noël ◽  
Maximilian Reuter ◽  
Heinrich Bovensmann ◽  
John P. Burrows ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Taylor Series Expansion ◽  
Posterior Probabilities ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Efficient Manner ◽  
Trend Data

Abstract Global total column water vapor trends have been derived from both the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) and the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) satellite data and from globally distributed radiosonde measurements, archived and quality controlled by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). The control of atmospheric water vapor amount by the hydrological cycle plays an important role in determining surface temperature and its response to the increase in man-made greenhouse effect. As a result of its strong infrared absorption, water vapor is the most important naturally occurring greenhouse gas. Without water vapor, the earth surface temperature would be about 20 K lower, making the evolution of life, as we know it, impossible. The monitoring of water vapor and its evolution in time is therefore of utmost importance for our understanding of global climate change. Comparisons of trends derived from independent water vapor measurements from satellite and radiosondes facilitate the assessment of the significance of the observed changes in water vapor. In this manuscript, the authors have compared observed water vapor change and trends, derived from independent instruments, and assessed the statistical significance of their differences. This study deals with an example of the Behrens–Fisher problem, namely, the comparison of samples with different means and different standard deviations, applied to trends from time series. Initially the Behrens–Fisher problem for the derivation of the consolidated change and trends is solved using standard (frequentist) hypothesis testing by performing the Welch test. Second, a Bayesian model selection is applied to solve the Behrens–Fisher problem by integrating the posterior probabilities numerically by using the algorithm Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DEMC). Additionally, an analytical approximative solution of the Bayesian posterior probabilities is derived by means of a quadratic Taylor series expansion applied in a computationally efficient manner to large datasets. The two statistical methods used in the study yield similar results for the comparison of the water vapor changes and trends from the different measurements, yielding a consolidated and consistent behavior.

Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints

2007 ◽  
Vol 365 (1857) ◽  
pp. 2029-2052 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A Stott ◽  
Chris E Forest
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Large Ensembles ◽  
Past Climate Change

Two different approaches are described for constraining climate predictions based on observations of past climate change. The first uses large ensembles of simulations from computationally efficient models and the second uses small ensembles from state-of-the-art coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. Each approach is described and the advantages of each are discussed. When compared, the two approaches are shown to give consistent ranges for future temperature changes. The consistency of these results, when obtained using independent techniques, demonstrates that past observed climate changes provide robust constraints on probable future climate changes. Such probabilistic predictions are useful for communities seeking to adapt to future change as well as providing important information for devising strategies for mitigating climate change.

scholarly journals Hydrological Climate-Impact Projections for the Rhine River: GCM–RCM Uncertainty and Separate Temperature and Precipitation Effects*

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 697-713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Bosshard ◽  
Sven Kotlarski ◽  
Massimiliano Zappa ◽  
Christoph Schär
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Rhine River ◽  
Supply Source ◽  
Rhine Basin ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change is expected to affect the hydrological cycle, with considerable impacts on water resources. Climate-induced changes in the hydrology of the Rhine River (Europe) are of major importance for the riparian countries, as the Rhine River is the most important European waterway, serves as a freshwater supply source, and is prone to floods and droughts. Here regional climate model data from the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project is used to drive the hydrological model Precipitation–Runoff–Evapotranspiration–Hydrotope (PREVAH) and to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology in the Rhine basin. Results suggest increases in monthly mean runoff during winter and decreases in summer. At the gauge Cologne and for the period 2070–99 under the A1B scenario of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, projected decreases in summer vary between −9% and −40% depending on the climate model used, while increases in winter are in the range of +4% to +51%. These projected changes in mean runoff are generally consistent with earlier studies, but the derived spread in the runoff projections appears to be larger. It is demonstrated that temperature effects (e.g., through altered snow processes) dominate in the Alpine tributaries, while precipitation effects dominate in the lower portion of the Rhine basin. Analyses are also presented for selected extreme runoff indices.

scholarly journals Impacto da duplicação de CO2 no clima global simulado por um modelo de circulação geral da atmosfera

2004 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 27-52
Author(s):  
Felipe Das Neves Roque da Silva ◽  
José Ricardo Almeida França
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Control Case ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Atmosphere General Circulation Model

The objective of this work is to evaluate climate changes caused by atmospheric CO2 concentration duplication. The LMD-Z atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM) was used (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique - France). The model was integrated for a fifty years period and only the last forty years were used for analyses. This experiment have made two simulations: the first using the current CO2 concentration (control case) and the second using this concentration doubled (duplication case). Both were made with a variable spatial resolution with maximum of it centered in Rio de Janeiro. This way, there is a significant increase of model resolution in this region. To verify climate changes, anomaly fields generated by the model (duplication case minus control) were studied. It was possible to observe some characteristic effects of this type of experiment, such as great temperature increasing at surface in polar regions and in upper levels at low latitudes, cooling in stratosphere and intensification of hydrological cycle.

scholarly journals Seasonality of the hydrological cycle in major South and Southeast Asian River Basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 627-675 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Hasson ◽  
V. Lucarini ◽  
S. Pascale ◽  
J. Böhner
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Southeast Asian ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Precipitation Regimes ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. In this study, we investigate how PCMDI/CMIP3 general circulation models (GCMs) represent the seasonal properties of the hydrological cycle in four major South and Southeast Asian river basins (Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra and Mekong). First, we examine the skill of GCMs by analysing their simulations for the XX century climate (1961–2000) under present-day forcing, and then we analyse the projected changes for the corresponding XXI and XXII century climates under SRESA1B scenario. CMIP3 GCMs show a varying degree of skill in simulating the basic characteristics of the monsoonal precipitation regimes of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong basins, while the representation of the hydrological cycle over the Indus basin is poor in most cases, with few GCMs not capturing the monsoon signal at all. Although the models' outputs feature a remarkable spread for the monsoonal precipitations, a satisfactory representation of the western mid-latitude precipitation regime is instead observed. Similarly, most of the models exhibit a satisfactory agreement for the basin-integrated runoff in winter and spring, while the spread is large for the runoff during the monsoon season. For future climate scenarios, winter (spring) P − E decreases over all four (Indus and Ganges) basins due to decrease in precipitation associated with the western mid-latitude disturbances. Consequently, the spring (winter) runoff drops (rises) for the Indus and Ganges basins. Such changes indicate a shift from rather glacial and nival to more pluvial runoff regimes, particularly for the Indus basin. Furthermore, the rise in the projected runoff along with the increase in precipitations during summer and autumn indicates an intensification of the summer monsoon regime for all study basins.

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