(Paleo)climate science for the 21st century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim M. Cobb
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Disturbance ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Full Potential ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Concerted Effort ◽  
Paleoclimate Records ◽  
Paleoclimate Data

<p>Records of past climate trends, variability, and extremes hold key insights into Earth’s changing climate, yet their full potential will remain untapped without a concerted effort to surmount several critical challenges, some time-sensitive.  In a century defined by accelerating climate change and human disturbance, the climate archive itself is at grave risk given that i) many paleoclimate records end in the late 20<sup>th</sup> century, with no concerted effort to extend them to the present-day, and ii) many paleoclimate archives are disappearing under pressure from climate change and/or human disturbance. Second, many paleoclimate records are comprised of oxygen isotopes, yet the coordinated, multi-scale observational and modeling infrastructures required to unravel the mechanisms governing water isotope variability are as yet underdeveloped. This dramatic oversight exists despite development of technologies that avoid costly analysis via mass spectrometers, and despite the fact that water isotopes may very well be one of the most powerful diagnostic tracers of a changing global water cycle. Lastly, in part owing to the aforementioned deficiencies, paleoclimate data assimilation efforts remain fraught with large uncertainties, despite their promise in constraining many of the most uncertain aspects of future climate impacts, including the evolution of extreme events and hydrological trends and variability. Climate science for the 21<sup>st</sup> century requires deep investments in the full integration of paleoclimate data and approaches into frameworks for climate risk and hazard assessments. In this sense, it is not surprising that paleoclimate scientists have played a key role in the communication of climate change science to decision-makers and the general public alike. Their understanding of the Earth system also equips them to contribute valuable insights to teams comprised of researchers, practitioners, and  decision-makers charged with leveraging science to inform solutions, in service to society. It’s time to recognize that all climate scientists study climate of the past, and all paleoclimate scientists have insights that are relevant to our climate future.</p>

Paleoclimate science for the 21st century: a wishlist

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim M. Cobb
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Key Stakeholders ◽  
Paleoclimate Records ◽  
Paleoclimate Data

<p>The study of past climate trends, variability, and extremes has yielded unique insights into Earth’s changing climate, yet paleoclimate science must overcome a number of key challenges to maximize its utility in a century defined by accelerating climate change. First, the paleoclimate archive itself is at grave risk, given that i) many records end in the late 20<sup>th</sup> century, and no concerted efforts exist to extend them to the present-day, and ii) many paleoclimate archives are disappearing under continued climate change and other forms of human disturbance. Second, many paleoclimate records are comprised of oxygen isotopes, yet the coordinated, multi-scale observational and modeling infrastructures required to unravel the mechanisms governing water isotope variability are as yet underdeveloped. Lastly, in part owing to the aforementioned deficiencies, paleoclimate data assimilation efforts remain fraught with large uncertainties, despite their promise in constraining many aspects of future climate impacts, including extreme events and hydrological trends and variability. Paleoclimate science for the 21<sup>st</sup> century requires deep investments in the full integration of paleoclimate data and approaches into frameworks for climate risk and hazard assessments. In that sense, paleoclimate scientists will continue to play a key role in the communication of climate change science to key stakeholders, including the general public. Their understanding of the Earth system also equips them to contribute valuable insights to teams comprised of researchers, practitioners, and  decision-makers charged with leveraging science to inform solutions, in service to society.</p>

scholarly journals Climate Change, Uncertainty and Policy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeroen Hopster
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Moral Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Economics ◽  
Climate Change Uncertainty ◽  
Management Perspective ◽  
Climate Uncertainty

While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC’s preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.

scholarly journals Telling the boiling frog what he needs to know: why climate change risks should be plotted as probability over time

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Sharpe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
First Principles ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Science Community ◽  
Over Time

Abstract. Humanity's situation with respect to climate change is sometimes compared to that of a frog in a slowly boiling pot of water, meaning that change will happen too gradually for us to appreciate the likelihood of catastrophe and act before it is too late. I argue that the scientific community is not yet telling the boiling frog what he needs to know. I use a review of the figures included in two reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to show that much of the climate science communicated to policymakers is presented in the form of projections of what is most likely to occur, as a function of time (equivalent to the following statement: in 5 min time, the water you are sitting in will be 2 ∘C warmer). I argue from first principles that a more appropriate means of assessing and communicating the risks of climate change would be to produce assessments of the likelihood of crossing non-arbitrary thresholds of impact, as a function of time (equivalent to the following statement: the probability of you being boiled to death will be 1 % in 5 min time, rising to 100 % in 20 min time if you do not jump out of the pot). This would be consistent with approaches to risk assessment in fields such as insurance, engineering, and health and safety. Importantly, it would ensure that decision makers are informed of the biggest risks and hence of the strongest reasons to act. I suggest ways in which the science community could contribute to promoting this approach, taking into account its inherent need for cross-disciplinary research and for engagement with decision makers before the research is conducted instead of afterwards.

scholarly journals Overcoming gender inequality for climate resilient development

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Andrijevic ◽  
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma ◽  
Tabea Lissner ◽  
Adelle Thomas ◽  
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Gender Inequality ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Gender Inequalities ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Inequality Index ◽  
Differential Vulnerability ◽  
Near Term

AbstractGender inequalities are reflected in differential vulnerability, and exposure to the hazards posed by climate change and addressing them is key to increase the adaptive capacities of societies. We provide trajectories of the Gender Inequality Index (GII) alongside the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a scenario framework widely used in climate science. Here we find that rapid improvements in gender inequality are possible under a sustainable development scenario already in the near-term. The share of girls growing up in countries with the highest gender inequality could be reduced to about 24% in 2030 compared to about 70% today. Largely overcoming gender inequality as assessed in the GII would be within reach by mid-century. Under less optimistic scenarios, gender inequality may persist throughout the 21st century. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating gender in scenarios assessing future climate impacts and underscore the relevance of addressing gender inequalities in policies aiming to foster climate resilient development.

Book Reviews

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 559-562
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
The State ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Climate Economics

Warwick McKibbin of the Australian National University and the Brookings Institution reviews “Climate Economics: The State of the Art”, by Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth A. Stanton. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Reviews the state of the art in climate economics and its background sciences. Discusses climate science for economists; damage functions and climate impacts; climate change impacts on natural systems; climate change impacts on human systems; climate economics before and after the Stern Review; uncertainty; public goods and public policy; economics and the climate policy debate; technologies for mitigation; the economics of mitigation; and adaptation. Ackerman and Stanton are Senior Economists at Synapse Energy Economics, Cambridge, Mass.”

scholarly journals Climate Science Needs to Take Risk Assessment Much More Seriously

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (9) ◽  
pp. 1637-1642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rowan T. Sutton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Research ◽  
Group I ◽  
Widespread View

AbstractFor decision-makers, climate change is a problem in risk assessment and risk management. It is, therefore, surprising that the needs and lessons of risk assessment have not featured more centrally in the consideration of priorities for physical climate science research, or in the Working Group I contributions to the major assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This article considers the reasons, which include a widespread view that the job of physical climate science is to provide predictions and projections—with a focus on likelihood rather than risk—and that risk assessment is a job for others. This view, it is argued, is incorrect. There is an urgent need for physical climate science to take the needs of risk assessment much more seriously. The challenge of meeting this need has important implications for priorities in climate research, climate modeling, and climate assessments.

scholarly journals Making the climate crisis personal through a focus on human health

2021 ◽  
Vol 166 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijay S. Limaye
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Local Health ◽  
Climate Resilience ◽  
Climate Crisis

AbstractClimate change–driven health impacts are serious, widespread, and costly. Importantly, such damages are largely absent from policy debates around the costs of delay and inaction on this crisis. While climate change is a global problem, its impacts are localized and personal, and there is growing demand for specific information on how climate change affects human health in different places. Existing research indicates that climate-fueled health problems are growing, and that investments in reducing carbon pollution and improving community resilience could help to avoid tens to hundreds of billions of dollars in climate-sensitive health impacts across the USA each year, including those stemming from extreme heat, air pollution, hurricanes, and wildfires. Science that explores the underappreciated local health impacts and health-related costs of climate change can enhance advocacy by demonstrating the need to both address the root causes of climate change and enhance climate resilience in vulnerable communities. The climate crisis has historically been predominantly conceived as a global environmental challenge; examination of climate impacts on public health enables researchers to localize this urgent problem for members of the public and policymakers. In turn, approaches to climate science that focus on health can make dangerous climate impacts and the need for cost-effective solutions more salient and tangible.

scholarly journals ATTRICI v1.1 – counterfactual climate for impact attribution

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 5269-5284
Author(s):  
Matthias Mengel ◽  
Simon Treu ◽  
Stefan Lange ◽  
Katja Frieler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
General Definition ◽  
Impact Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Attribution in its general definition aims to quantify drivers of change in a system. According to IPCC Working Group II (WGII) a change in a natural, human or managed system is attributed to climate change by quantifying the difference between the observed state of the system and a counterfactual baseline that characterizes the system's behavior in the absence of climate change, where “climate change refers to any long-term trend in climate, irrespective of its cause” (IPCC, 2014). Impact attribution following this definition remains a challenge because the counterfactual baseline, which characterizes the system behavior in the hypothetical absence of climate change, cannot be observed. Process-based and empirical impact models can fill this gap as they allow us to simulate the counterfactual climate impact baseline. In those simulations, the models are forced by observed direct (human) drivers such as land use changes, changes in water or agricultural management but a counterfactual climate without long-term changes. We here present ATTRICI (ATTRIbuting Climate Impacts), an approach to construct the required counterfactual stationary climate data from observational (factual) climate data. Our method identifies the long-term shifts in the considered daily climate variables that are correlated to global mean temperature change assuming a smooth annual cycle of the associated scaling coefficients for each day of the year. The produced counterfactual climate datasets are used as forcing data within the impact attribution setup of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). Our method preserves the internal variability of the observed data in the sense that factual and counterfactual data for a given day have the same rank in their respective statistical distributions. The associated impact model simulations allow for quantifying the contribution of climate change to observed long-term changes in impact indicators and for quantifying the contribution of the observed trend in climate to the magnitude of individual impact events. Attribution of climate impacts to anthropogenic forcing would need an additional step separating anthropogenic climate forcing from other sources of climate trends, which is not covered by our method.

scholarly journals Maximum Temperatures and Heat Waves in Mexicali, Mexico: Trends and Threshold Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. ASWR.S32778 ◽  
Author(s):  
Polioptro F. Martínez Austria ◽  
Erick R. Bandala
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
The City

Maximum temperature trends and the corresponding heat wave thresholds in the northwestern city of Mexicali, Mexico, were analyzed using historical data from the site. We found that there seems to be an upward trend in temperature in the past decades, along with an increased number of days reaching maximum temperatures considered as heat waves. Despite the difficulty of establishing heat wave parameters, the trends of the analyzed field data clearly show their presence, mainly during July and August. This trend is also supported by the analysis of the number of admissions and casualties registered in hospitals in the city of Mexicali. This work is a warning on the frequency and duration of a very important climate change-related effect capable of jeopardizing the health of the population in the region and requiring more attention by decision makers and stakeholders. It also helps to document observed climate trends, as requested by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Asphalt Binder Grade Selection and its Implications

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110130
Author(s):  
Surya T. Swarna ◽  
Kamal Hossain ◽  
Harshdutta Pandya ◽  
Yusuf A. Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Asphalt Binder ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Pavement Performance ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Change Models

Anthropogenic climate change is having and will continue to have unpredictable effects on Canadian weather. Trends in average annual temperatures have been rapidly increasing over the last 50 years. The severe climatic variations in Canada are in line with global changes in climate occurring as a result of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Under the current CO2 emission scenarios, scientists predict the climate trends to further intensify in the near future. It is well known that asphalt binder is highly sensitive to climate factors. For this reason, reviewing asphalt binder grade is a vital step, and can help decelerate pavement deterioration. The objective of this study was to assess the change in asphalt binder grade for the future climate and to determine the influence of change in binder grade on the performance of pavements in Canada. To achieve this, the analysis was carried out in five phases. In the first phase, statistically downscaled climate change models were gathered from the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium database. In the second phase, the temperature and precipitation data were extracted for the selected locations in southern Canada. In the third phase, the asphalt binder grade was determined for future climate data. In the fourth phase, the pavement materials, traffic, and structural data were collected from the Long-Term Pavement Performance database. Lastly, the pavement performance with the base binder and the upgraded binder were assessed using AASHTOware Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design. The results reemphasize the necessity of upgrading the asphalt binder grade in various provinces of Canada.

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