Increased vulnerability of European ecosystems to two consecutive extreme summers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Bastos ◽  
René Orth ◽  
Markus Reichstein ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Nicolas Viovy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Legacy Effects ◽  
The Past ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Summer Temperatures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Observational Record

<p>Extreme summer temperatures in western and central Europe have become more frequent and heatwaves more prolonged over the past decades. The summer of 2018 was one of the driest and hottest in the observational record and led to losses in vegetation productivity in central Europe by up to 50%. Legacy effects from such extreme summers can affect ecosystem functioning over several years, as vegetation slowly recovers. In 2019 an extremely dry and hot summer was registered again in the region, imposing stress conditions at a time when ecosystems were still recovering from summer 2018.</p><p>Using Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) fields from MODIS, we evaluate how ecosystems in central Europe responded to the occurrence of two consecutive extreme summers. We find that only ca. 21% of the area negatively impacted by drought in summer 2018 fully recovered in 2019.</p><p>We find that the strongest EVI anomalies in 2018/19 diverge from the long-term relationships between EVI and climate, indicating an increase in ecosystem vulnerability to heat and drought events. Furthermore, 18% of the area showed a worsening of plant status during summer 2019 in spite of drought alleviation, which could be explained by interannual legacy effects from 2018, such as impaired growth and increased biotic disturbances.</p><p>Land-surface models do not simulate interannual legacy effects from summer 2018 and thereby underestimate the impact of drought in 2019 on ecosystems. The poor representation of drought-induced damage and mortality and lack of biotic disturbances in these models may result in an overestimation of the resilience and stability of temperate ecosystems in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Improving arable land heterogeneity information in available land cover products for land surface modelling using MERIS NDVI data

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 2073-2084 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Zabel ◽  
T. B. Hank ◽  
W. Mauser
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Temporal Behaviour ◽  
Danube Catchment ◽  
Crop Types ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Regionalization of physical land surface models requires the supply of detailed land cover information. Numerous global and regional land cover maps already exist but generally, they do not resolve arable land into different crop types. However, arable land comprises a huge variety of different crops with characteristic phenological behaviour, demonstrated in this paper with Leaf Area Index (LAI) measurements exemplarily for maize and winter wheat. This affects the mass and energy fluxes on the land surface and thus its hydrology. The objective of this study is the generation of a land cover map for central Europe based on CORINE Land Cover (CLC) 2000, merged with CORINE Switzerland, but distinguishing different crop types. Accordingly, an approach was developed, subdividing the land cover class arable land into the regionally most relevant subclasses for central Europe using multiseasonal MERIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. The satellite data were used for the separation of spring and summer crops due to their different phenological behaviour. Subsequently, the generated phenological classes were subdivided following statistical data from EUROSTAT. This database was analysed concerning the acreage of different crop types. The impact of the improved land use/cover map on evapotranspiration was modelled exemplarily for the Upper Danube catchment with the hydrological model PROMET. Simulations based on the newly developed land cover approach showed a more detailed evapotranspiration pattern compared to model results using the traditional CLC map, which is ignorant of most arable subdivisions. Due to the improved temporal behaviour and spatial allocation of evapotranspiration processes in the new land cover approach, the simulated water balance more closely matches the measured gauge.

scholarly journals A Bayesian Three-Cornered Hat (BTCH) Method: Improving the Terrestrial Evapotranspiration Estimation

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 878
Author(s):  
Xinlei He ◽  
Tongren Xu ◽  
Youlong Xia ◽  
Sayed M. Bateni ◽  
Zhixia Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mississippi River ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Evapotranspiration Estimation ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Gravity Recovery

In this study, a Bayesian-based three-cornered hat (BTCH) method is developed to improve the estimation of terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) by integrating multisource ET products without using any a priori knowledge. Ten long-term (30 years) gridded ET datasets from statistical or empirical, remotely-sensed, and land surface models over contiguous United States (CONUS) are integrated by the BTCH and ensemble mean (EM) methods. ET observations from eddy covariance towers (ETEC) at AmeriFlux sites and ET values from the water balance method (ETWB) are used to evaluate the BTCH- and EM-integrated ET estimates. Results indicate that BTCH performs better than EM and all the individual parent products. Moreover, the trend of BTCH-integrated ET estimates, and their influential factors (e.g., air temperature, normalized differential vegetation index, and precipitation) from 1982 to 2011 are analyzed by the Mann–Kendall method. Finally, the 30-year (1982 to 2011) total water storage anomaly (TWSA) in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) is retrieved based on the BTCH-integrated ET estimates. The TWSA retrievals in this study agree well with those from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE).

scholarly journals Seasonal Variations of Daytime Land Surface Temperature and Their Underlying Drivers over Wuhan, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 323
Author(s):  
Liang Chen ◽  
Xuelei Wang ◽  
Xiaobin Cai ◽  
Chao Yang ◽  
Xiaorong Lu
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature Difference ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Rapid urbanization greatly alters land surface vegetation cover and heat distribution, leading to the development of the urban heat island (UHI) effect and seriously affecting the healthy development of cities and the comfort of living. As an indicator of urban health and livability, monitoring the distribution of land surface temperature (LST) and discovering its main impacting factors are receiving increasing attention in the effort to develop cities more sustainably. In this study, we analyzed the spatial distribution patterns of LST of the city of Wuhan, China, from 2013 to 2019. We detected hot and cold poles in four seasons through clustering and outlier analysis (based on Anselin local Moran’s I) of LST. Furthermore, we introduced the geographical detector model to quantify the impact of six physical and socio-economic factors, including the digital elevation model (DEM), index-based built-up index (IBI), modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), population, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the LST distribution of Wuhan. Finally, to identify the influence of land cover on temperature, the LST of croplands, woodlands, grasslands, and built-up areas was analyzed. The results showed that low temperatures are mainly distributed over water and woodland areas, followed by grasslands; high temperatures are mainly concentrated over built-up areas. The maximum temperature difference between land covers occurs in spring and summer, while this difference can be ignored in winter. MNDWI, IBI, and NDVI are the key driving factors of the thermal values change in Wuhan, especially of their interaction. We found that the temperature of water area and urban green space (woodlands and grasslands) tends to be 5.4 °C and 2.6 °C lower than that of built-up areas. Our research results can contribute to the urban planning and urban greening of Wuhan and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the city.

The Role of UBI in Mitigating the Effects of Psychosocial Stressors: A Review and Proposal

2021 ◽  
pp. 003329412110051
Author(s):  
Rashmi Gupta ◽  
Jemima Jacob ◽  
Gaurav Bansal
Keyword(s):  
Role Stress ◽  
Psychosocial Stressors ◽  
Basic Income ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
The Past ◽  
Individual Outcomes ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

Psychosocial stressors and social disadvantages contribute to inequalities in opportunities and outcomes. In the current paper, we use an epidemiological perspective and highlight the role stress plays on individuals by reviewing the outcomes of major stressors such as poverty and unemployment. We further analyzed the psychological and physical cost of these stressors and their long-term impact. We examined the role of universal basic income and closely looked at income experiments that were implemented in the past, in terms of their effectiveness in enhancing the community as well as individual outcomes and propose the UBI as a tool for alleviating the impact of these stressors. At a time when a major pandemic (e.g., COVID-19) threatens economic stability and health globally, we believe the UBI is relevant now, more than ever.

Toward a Robust Canopy Hydrology Scheme with Precipitation Subgrid Variability

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 439-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dagang Wang ◽  
Guiling Wang
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Characteristics ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Canopy Interception ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Covered Area ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Interception Loss ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Representation of the canopy hydrological processes has been challenging in land surface modeling due to the subgrid heterogeneity in both precipitation and surface characteristics. The Shuttleworth dynamic–statistical method is widely used to represent the impact of the precipitation subgrid variability on canopy hydrological processes but shows unwanted sensitivity to temporal resolution when implemented into land surface models. This paper presents a canopy hydrology scheme that is robust at different temporal resolutions. This scheme is devised by applying two physically based treatments to the Shuttleworth scheme: 1) the canopy hydrological processes within the rain-covered area are treated separately from those within the nonrain area, and the scheme tracks the relative rain location between adjacent time steps; and 2) within the rain-covered area, the canopy interception is so determined as to sustain the potential evaporation from the wetted canopy or is equal to precipitation, whichever is less, to maintain somewhat wet canopy during any rainy time step. When applied to the Amazon region, the new scheme establishes interception loss ratios of 0.3 at a 10-min time step and 0.23 at a 2-h time step. Compared to interception loss ratios of 0.45 and 0.09 at the corresponding time steps established by the original Shuttleworth scheme, the new scheme is much more stable under different temporal resolutions.

scholarly journals The Long-Term and Geographically Constrained Effects of Campaign Advertising on Political Polarization and Sorting

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Travis N. Ridout ◽  
Erika Franklin Fowler ◽  
Michael M. Franz ◽  
Kenneth Goldstein
Keyword(s):  
Political Advertising ◽  
Political Polarization ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
The Past ◽  
Mass Public ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Media Markets ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Campaign Advertising

Scholars agree that there has been an increase in polarization among political elites, though there continues to be debate on the extent to which polarization exists among the mass public. Still, there is general agreement that the American public has become more sorted over the past two decades, a time during which political ad volumes have increased and ads have become more negative. In this research, we explore whether there is a link between the two. We take advantage of variation in the volume and tone of political advertising across media markets to examine the link between advertising and three dependent variables: issue polarization, affective polarization, and sorting. We focus on the impact of both recent ad exposure and cumulative ad exposure across several election cycles. Ultimately, we find little impact of advertising on polarization or sorting, both overall and among subgroups of the population.

Transitional Justice and Changing Memories of the Past in Central Europe

2013 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-44
Author(s):  
Roman David
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Transitional Justice ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Divided Societies ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Impact

Memories of wrongdoings are often viewed as an obstacle to reconciliation in divided societies. Is it due to the past or the present politics of the past? To examine the dilemma of essentialism versus presentism, this article investigates the impact of transitional justice on memories of wrongdoing. It theorizes that using different transitional justice strategies to deal with the same wrongdoing shapes memories in different ways. The theory is tested via vignette-based surveys in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, which adopted distinct lustration laws. The results show that wrongdoing is viewed through lustration laws, reflecting present power constellations, not history.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SIGNIFICANT FOR SMALL AVIATION AND TRAINING FLIGHTS AT THE AIRFIELD “BALKHASH” FOR PLANNING AND FLIGHT SAFETY PURPOSES

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (446) ◽  
pp. 62-67
Author(s):  
N. Dolzhenko ◽  
E. Mailyanova ◽  
I. Assilbekova ◽  
Z. Konakbay
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Flight Safety ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
And Training ◽  
Term Data ◽  
Small Aircraft

Cloudiness and range of visibility are the most significant flight conditions for aircraft. The impact of clouds and visibility on the safety of aircraft flights, especially small aircraft, cannot be overestimated. According to the Interstate Air Committee, Kazakhstan ranks second in the number of aviation disasters. The average age of a third of Kazakhstan's small aircraft is more than 30 years. Over the past few years, 14 air accidents have occurred in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 11 of them with small aircraft. In this work, we investigate long-term data on cloudiness and visibility at the most weather-favorable airfield in Balkhash, for the possibility of safe and economical flights of small aircraft and planning training flights.

scholarly journals Imaginary Worlds: The Status of Simulation Modeling in Claims for Cost-Effectiveness In Diabetes Mellitus

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C Langley ◽  
Taeho Greg Rhee
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Impact

Over the past 20 years a number of simulations or models have been developed as a basis for tracking and evaluating the impact of pharmacological and other interventions in type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus. These models have typically tracked the natural course of these diseases generating long-term composite claims for cost-effectiveness. These claims can extend over the lifetime of the modeled patient cohort. Set against the standards of normal science, however, these claims lack credibility. The claims presented are all too often either immune to failure or are presented in a form that is non-testable. As such they fail to meet the key experimental requirements of falsification and replication. Unfortunately, there is a continuing belief that long-term or lifetime models are essential to decision-making. This is misplaced. The purpose of this review is to argue that there is a pressing need to reconsider the needs of health system decision makers and focus on modeled or simulated claims that are meaningful, testable, reportable and replicable in evaluating interventions in diabetes mellitus.   Type: Commentary

Quality of life following surgery for congenital cardiac malformations in neonates and infants

2005 ◽  
Vol 15 (S1) ◽  
pp. 174-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen Mussatto ◽  
James Tweddell
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Cardiac Malformations ◽  
The Past ◽  
Congenital Cardiac Disease ◽  
Major Shift ◽  
Neonates And Infants ◽  
The Impact

The past two decades have witnessed a major shift towards repair of most congenital cardiac malformations during the neonatal or infant periods of life.1 Early anatomic correction or palliation, dramatic improvements in survival, and reduced morbidity due to improvements in perioperative and long-term medical management, have resulted in new populations of children that have reaped the benefits of the best care currently available for treatment of congenital cardiac disease. The impact of the congenital cardiac malformations, however, extends far beyond the walls of the hospital or clinic where we diagnose, treat, and follow our patients. The breakthrough of achieving predictable results with repair or palliation of most lesions during the neonatal and infant periods mandates us to look beyond survival, and to examine the lives our patients lead when they are outside of our care. Our purpose in this review is to discuss the measures of psychosocial outcome that are appropriate for exploration in those neonates and infants who survive cardiac surgery, to explore what is known about the psychosocial outcomes and quality of life for these patients, and what needs exist for future research.

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