scholarly journals Flattening the climate curve

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
tomas molina
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Behaviour ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Scientific Communication ◽  
The Past ◽  
Greenhouse Gases Emissions ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Change Curve ◽  
General Society

<p>With the arrival of COVID we have learned how to flatten the "pandemic curve" during the past year. Now it is time to finally flatten the global warming, climate change curve.</p><p>The scientific knowledge is clear and unequivocal, but we must now strengthen our scientific communication to the general population, to governments, to industry, and to the private sector, to drive changes to our social behaviour as individuals, workers, communities and general society.</p><p>We talk a lot about private and public partnership; we need also to include also the scientific community in this cooperation. All of society needs to know and understand the challenges, in order to drive changes in social behaviour that reduce greenhouse gases emissions.</p>

What the past can say about the present and future of fire

2020 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
pp. 66-87
Author(s):  
Jennifer R. Marlon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Combustion Products ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Past ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Very High

AbstractWildfires are an integral part of most terrestrial ecosystems. Paleofire records composed of charcoal, soot, and other combustion products deposited in lake and marine sediments, soils, and ice provide a record of the varying importance of fire over time on every continent. This study reviews paleofire research to identify lessons about the nature of fire on Earth and how its past variability is relevant to modern environmental challenges. Four lessons are identified. First, fire is highly sensitive to climate change, and specifically to temperature changes. As long as there is abundant, dry fuel, we can expect that in a warming climate, fires will continue to grow unusually large, severe, and uncontrollable in fire-prone environments. Second, a better understanding of “slow” (interannual to multidecadal) socioecological processes is essential for predicting future wildfire and carbon emissions. Third, current patterns of burning, which are very low in some areas and very high in others—are often unprecedented in the context of the Holocene. Taken together, these insights point to a fourth lesson—that current changes in wildfire dynamics provide an opportunity for paleoecologists to engage the public and help them understand the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change.

scholarly journals Análise Espaço-Temporal das Temperaturas no Ceará no Contexto das Mudanças Climáticas

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 743
Author(s):  
Arnóbio De Mendonça Barreto Cavalcante ◽  
Eliane Barbosa Santos ◽  
Vicente de Paula Silva Filho Silva Filho ◽  
Vanessa de Almeida Dantas ◽  
Luciana Cristina De Sousa Vieira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
The State ◽  
Time Analysis ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
The Past ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Maximum Minimum ◽  
Meteorological Institute

O aumento de temperatura do ar é uma realidade inquestionável. Vários trabalhos em macroescala confirmam esse fato, mas é preciso melhorar nossa compreensão, também, em escalas menores. O objetivo desse estudo foi analisar e comparar as normais climatológicas das temperaturas máxima, mínima e média compensada do período de 1961-1990 (normal de referência) com as normais climatológicas provisórias de 1994-2015, com o propósito de identificar mudanças nos padrões de temperatura e obter uma avaliação mais refinada das mudanças climáticas ocorridas nas últimas décadas no estado do Ceará, Brasil. Para tal, utilizou-se do banco de dados meteorológicos do INMET. O comportamento das temperaturas máxima, mínima e média compensada revelou para todas as estações selecionadas, um padrão de aumento do período 1994-2015 em relação ao período 1961-1990, da ordem de 0,7 oC, 0,4 oC e 0,6 oC em média, respectivamente. Destaca-se que esse aumento alcançou todo o estado mas, como cada localidade apresenta particularidades, a alta da temperatura não foi uniforme variando em função do setor do estado. As temperaturas médias foram “puxadas” para cima mais por conta dos aumentos das temperaturas máximas do que devido às medidas das temperaturas mínimas.Palavras-chave: Aquecimento do Ar; Normais Climatológicas; Mesoescala.  Space-Time Analysis of Temperatures in Ceará in the Context of Climate Change  A B S T R A C TSpatiotemporal analysis of temperatures in Ceará-Brazil in the context of climate change. The rise in air temperature is an unquestionable reality. Several studies in macroscale confirm this fact, but we must improve our understanding also at smaller scales. The aim of this study was to analyze and compare the climate normals of maximum, minimum and average temperature of the 1961-1990 period (normal reference) with the provisional climate normals from 1994 to 2015, with the purpose of identifying changes in temperature patterns and a more refined assessment of climate change over the past decades in the state of Ceará. For this, the database is used, taken from the National Meteorological Institute of Brazil (INMET). The behavior of the maximum, minimum and average temperature revealed for all selected stations, a pattern of increased period 1994-2015 for the period 1961-1990, in the order of 0.7 °C, 0.4 °C and 0.6 oC in average, respectively. It is noteworthy that this increase reached throughout the state but as each location has special features, the temperature rise has not been uniform. It changed due to the state section. Average temperatures were "pulled" up more because of the rise in maximum temperatures that due to the measures of minimum temperatures.Keywords: Air Warming, Climate Normals, Mesoscale.

scholarly journals Thermal Requirements Underpinning Germination Allude to Risk of Species Decline from Climate Warming

Plants ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Anne Cochrane
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Thermal Requirements ◽  
The Past ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Species Vulnerability ◽  
The Face ◽  
Germination Timing ◽  
Regeneration Phase ◽  
Gradient Plate

The storage of seeds is a commonly used means of preserving plant genetic diversity in the face of rising threats such as climate change. Here, the findings of research from the past decade into thermal requirements for germination are synthesised for more than 100 plant species from southern Western Australia. This global biodiversity hotspot is predicted to suffer major plant collapse under forecast climate change. A temperature gradient plate was used to assess the thermal requirements underpinning seed germination in both commonly occurring and geographically restricted species. The results suggest that the local climate of the seed source sites does not drive seed responses, neither is it indicative of temperatures for optimal germination. The low diurnal phase of the temperature regime provided the most significant impact on germination timing. Several species germinated optimally at mean temperatures below or close to current wet quarter temperatures, and more than 40% of species were likely to be impacted in the future, with germination occurring under supra-optimal temperature conditions. This research highlights both species vulnerability and resilience to a warming climate during the regeneration phase of the life cycle and provides vital information for those aiming to manage, conserve and restore this regional flora.

Vermont Climate Change Indicators

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan K. Betts
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
The State ◽  
Consistent Pattern ◽  
Adaptation Planning ◽  
Small Lakes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Warming Climate

AbstractClimate change indicators are developed for Vermont in recent decades based on the trends in freeze dates, the length of the growing season, the frozen period of small lakes, and the onset of spring. These trends, which show a consistent pattern of a warming climate in Vermont during the past 50 yr, provide useful information for climate change adaptation planning for the state. The freeze period has become shorter and the growing season for frost-sensitive plants has become longer by about 3.7 (±1.1) days decade−1, the date of the last spring freeze has come earlier by 2.3 (±0.7) days decade−1, and the first autumn freeze has come later by 1.5 (±0.8) days decade−1. The frozen period for small lakes, which depends on mean temperatures over longer periods, has decreased faster by 6.9 (±1.5) days decade−1. Lake freeze-up has occurred later by 3.9 (±1.1) days decade−1, while ice-out has come earlier by 2.9 (±1.0) days decade−1. Lilac first leaf has also been coming earlier by 2.9 (±0.8) days decade−1, while lilac first bloom has advanced more slowly, by 1.6 (±0.6) days decade−1. The first leaf of Vermont lilacs, an indicator of early spring, is closely correlated with the ice-out of the small reference lake, Stile’s Pond, because both are related to temperatures in February–April. In the past 40 yr, the growing season for frost-sensitive plants has increased by 2 weeks, and the growing season for frost-hardy plants may have increased more.

scholarly journals Review of recent advances in climate change detection and attribution studies: a large-scale hydroclimatological perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
P. Sonali ◽  
D. Nagesh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Extensive Discussion ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Assess Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

Abstract The rapid changes in global average surface temperature have unfathomed influences on human society, environment, ecosystem, availability of food and fresh water. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and human-induced effects are playing an enhanced role in climate change. It is of utmost importance to ascertain the hydroclimatological changes in order to ascertain the characteristics of detection and attribution (D&A) of human-induced anthropogenic influences on recent warming. Climate change D&A are interrelated. Their study enhances our understanding about the rudimentary causes leading to climate changes and hence, considered as a decisive element in all Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports. An extensive discussion of the concerned scientific literature on climate change D&A is indispensably needed for the scientific community to assess climate change threats in clear terms. This study has reviewed various processes and advances in climate change D&A analyses at global/regional scales during the past few decades. Regression-based optimal fingerprint approach is majorly employed in climate change D&A studies. The accumulation of inferences presented in this study from numerous studies could be extremely helpful for the scientific community and policymakers as they deal with climate change adaptation and mitigation challenges.

Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Millington ◽  
Peter M. Cox ◽  
Jonathan R. Moore ◽  
Gabriel Yvon-Durocher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Diffusion Rate ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Genetic Evolution ◽  
Rates Of Change ◽  
Rapid Climate Change ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Intraspecies Competition ◽  
High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

Denouement: World Politics, Systemic Leadership, and Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
William R. Thompson ◽  
Leila Zakhirova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
World Politics ◽  
First Century ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
The Past ◽  
Agrarian Economy ◽  
Historical Processes

In this final chapter, we conclude by recapitulating our argument and evidence. One goal of this work has been to improve our understanding of the patterns underlying the evolution of world politics over the past one thousand years. How did we get to where we are now? Where and when did the “modern” world begin? How did we shift from a primarily agrarian economy to a primarily industrial one? How did these changes shape world politics? A related goal was to examine more closely the factors that led to the most serious attempts by states to break free of agrarian constraints. We developed an interactive model of the factors that we thought were most likely to be significant. Finally, a third goal was to examine the linkages between the systemic leadership that emerged from these historical processes and the global warming crisis of the twenty-first century. Climate change means that the traditional energy platforms for system leadership—coal, petroleum, and natural gas—have become counterproductive. The ultimate irony is that we thought that the harnessing of carbon fuels made us invulnerable to climate fluctuations, while the exact opposite turns out to be true. The more carbon fuels are consumed, the greater the damage done to the atmosphere. In many respects, the competition for systemic leadership generated this problem. Yet it is unclear whether systemic leadership will be up to the task of resolving it.

The Fight Against Doubt

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inmaculada de Melo-Martín ◽  
Kristen Intemann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Vaccine Safety ◽  
False Beliefs ◽  
Scientific Process ◽  
The Public ◽  
Scientific Consensus ◽  
Scientific Claims

Current debates about climate change or vaccine safety provide an alarming illustration of the potential impacts of dissent about scientific claims. False beliefs about evidence and the conclusions that can be drawn from it are commonplace, as is corrosive doubt about the existence of widespread scientific consensus. Deployed aggressively and to political ends, ill-founded dissent can intimidate scientists, stymie research, and lead both the public and policymakers to oppose important policies firmly rooted in science. To criticize dissent is, however, a fraught exercise. Skepticism and fearless debate are key to the scientific process, making it both vital and incredibly difficult to characterize and identify dissent that is problematic in its approach and consequences. Indeed, as de Melo-Martín and Intemann show, the criteria commonly proposed as means of identifying inappropriate dissent are flawed, and the strategies generally recommended to tackle such dissent are not only ineffective but could even make the situation worse. The Fight against Doubt proposes that progress on this front can best be achieved by enhancing the trustworthiness of the scientific community and being more realistic about the limits of science when it comes to policymaking. It shows that a richer understanding is needed of the context in which science operates so as to disarm problematic dissent and those who deploy it in the pursuit of their goals.

scholarly journals Scientific literacy, public engagement and responsibility in science

2021 ◽  
pp. 209660832110096
Author(s):  
Daya Reddy
Keyword(s):  
Public Good ◽  
Genome Editing ◽  
Public Engagement ◽  
Scientific Literacy ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Global Public Good ◽  
Public Communication ◽  
Digital Revolution ◽  
The Past ◽  
Responsibility Of Scientists

This work addresses the issue of scientific literacy and its connection to the responsibility of scientists in relation to public engagement. The points of departure are, first, the notion of science as a global public good, and, second, developments in the past few decades driven largely by the digital revolution. The latter lend a particular urgency to initiatives aimed at promoting scientific literacy. Arguments are presented for reassessing approaches to public communication. The particular example of genome editing is provided as a vehicle for highlighting the challenges in engagement involving the scientific community, policymakers and broader society.

scholarly journals Ensemble models on palaeoclimate to predict India's groundwater challenge

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Partha Sarathi Datta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Ensemble Models ◽  
North West ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
14C Age

In many parts of the world, freshwater crisis is largely due to increasing water consumption and pollution by rapidly growing population and aspirations for economic development, but, ascribed usually to the climate. However, limited understanding and knowledge gaps in the factors controlling climate and uncertainties in the climate models are unable to assess the probable impacts on water availability in tropical regions. In this context, review of ensemble models on δ18O and δD in rainfall and groundwater, 3H- and 14C- ages of groundwater and 14C- age of lakes sediments helped to reconstruct palaeoclimate and long-term recharge in the North-west India; and predict future groundwater challenge. The annual mean temperature trend indicates both warming/cooling in different parts of India in the past and during 1901–2010. Neither the GCMs (Global Climate Models) nor the observational record indicates any significant change/increase in temperature and rainfall over the last century, and climate change during the last 1200 yrs BP. In much of the North-West region, deep groundwater renewal occurred from past humid climate, and shallow groundwater renewal from limited modern recharge over the past decades. To make water management to be more responsive to climate change, the gaps in the science of climate change need to be bridged.

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