scholarly journals Economic impacts of a glacial period: a thought experiment to assess the disconnect between econometrics and climate sciences

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1073-1087
Author(s):  
Marie-Noëlle Woillez ◽  
Gaël Giraud ◽  
Antoine Godin
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Thought Experiment ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change raises growing concerns about its potential catastrophic impacts on both ecosystems and human societies. Yet, several studies on damage induced on the economy by unmitigated global warming have proposed a much less worrying picture of the future, with only a few points of decrease in the world gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by the end of the century, even for a global warming above 4 ∘C. We consider two different empirically estimated functions linking GDP growth or GDP level to temperature at the country level and apply them to a global cooling of 4 ∘C in 2100, corresponding to a return to glacial conditions. We show that the alleged impact on global average GDP per capita runs from −1.8 %, if temperature impacts GDP level, to +36 %, if the impact is rather on GDP growth. These results are then compared to the hypothetical environmental conditions faced by humanity, taking the Last Glacial Maximum as a reference. The modeled impacts on the world GDP appear strongly underestimated given the magnitude of climate and ecological changes recorded for that period. After discussing the weaknesses of the aggregated statistical approach to estimate economic damage, we conclude that, if these functions cannot reasonably be trusted for such a large cooling, they should not be considered to provide relevant information on potential damage in the case of a warming of similar magnitude, as projected in the case of unabated greenhouse gas emissions.

scholarly journals Economic impacts of a glacial period: a thought experiment. Assessing the disconnect between econometrics and climate sciences

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie-Noëlle Woillez ◽  
Gaël Giraud ◽  
Antoine Godin
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Thought Experiment ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Ecological Changes ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Temperature Impacts ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change raises growing concerns about its potential catastrophic impacts on both ecosystems and human societies. Yet, several studies on damages induced on the economy by unmitigated global warming have proposed a much less worrying picture of the future, with only a few points decrease in the world GDP per capita by the end of the century, even for a global warming above +4 °C. We consider here two different empirically estimated functions linking GDP growth or GDP level to temperature at the country level and apply them to a global cooling of −4 °C in 2100, corresponding to a return to glacial conditions. We show that the alleged impact on global average GDP per capita runs from −1.8 %, if temperature impacts GDP level, to +36 %, if the impacts are rather on GDP growth. These results are then compared to the hypothetical environmental conditions faced by humanity, taking the last glacial maximum as a reference. The modeled impacts on the world's GDP appear strongly underestimated given the magnitude of climate and ecological changes recorded for that period. After discussing the weaknesses of the aggregated statistical approach to estimate economic damages, we conclude that, if these functions cannot reasonably be trusted for such a large cooling, they should also not be considered as providing relevant information on potential damages in the case of a warming of similar magnitude, as projected in the case of unabated greenhouse gas emissions.

scholarly journals The influence of demographic factors on the economic development of the Azerbaijan: the interconnection problem

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saleh Nagiyev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
World Population ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Demographic factors have sometimes occupied center-stage in the discussion of the sources of economic growth. In the 18th century, Thomas Malthus made the pessimistic forecast that GDP growth per capita would fall due to a continued rapid increase in world population. There is a straightforward accounting relationship when identifying the sources of economic growth: Growth Rate of GDP = Growth Rate of Population + Growth Rate of GDP per capita, where GDP per capita is simply GDP divided by population. This article examines the interconnection between economic development and the demographic policy of Azerbaijan. The article analyzes various approaches of the impact of demographic factors on the economic development of a country. The following demographic factors have been identified and described as significant for the economic development: fertility dynamics, mortality dynamics, population size and gender and age structure.

Forecasting global road traffic injury mortality for 2030

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 339-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haruhiko Inada ◽  
Qingfeng Li ◽  
Abdulgafoor Bachani ◽  
Adnan A Hyder
Keyword(s):  
Road Traffic ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Road Traffic Injury ◽  
Population Projection ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Years Of Schooling

ObjectiveTo forecast the number and rate of deaths from road traffic injuries (RTI) in the world in 2030.MethodsThis study was a secondary analysis of annual country-level data of RTI mortality rates for 1990–2017 in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study, population projection for 2030, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita for 1990–2030 and average years of schooling among people aged 15 years+ for 1990–2030. We developed up to 6884 combinations of forecasting models for each subgroup stratified by country, sex and mode of transport using linear and squared year, GDP per capita and average years of schooling as potential predictors. We conducted a fixed-size, rolling window out-of-sample forecast to choose the best combination for each subgroup. In the validation, we used the data for 1990–2002, 1991–2003 and 1992–2004 (fit periods) to forecast mortality rates in 2015, 2016 and 2017 (test periods), respectively. We applied the selected combination of models to the data for 1990–2017 to forecast the mortality rate in 2030 for each subgroup. To forecast the number of deaths, we multiplied the forecasted mortality rates by the corresponding population projection.ResultsDuring the test periods, the selected combination of models produced the number of deaths that is higher than that estimated in the GBD Study by 5.1% collectively. Our model resulted in 1.225 million deaths and 14.3 deaths per 100 000 population in 2030, which were 1% and 12% less than those for 2017 in the GBD Study, respectively.ConclusionsThe world needs to accelerate its efforts towards achieving the Decade of Action for Road Safety goal and the Sustainable Development Goals target.

scholarly journals INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS OF ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM THE WORLD VALUE SURVEY

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 146-160
Author(s):  
Andriy Maksymuk ◽  
Nataliya Kuzenko
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
High Income ◽  
Institutional Factors ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Strong Positive Correlation ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

This article highlights the impact of values on the country’s welfare. Values that are quite constant over a long period of time form an institutional framework within the country. They can contribute to economic development or even prevent it. The aim of the article is to explore, what is the influence of social values, democracy and trade on welfare levels in different counties. The hypothesis is that the dominance in society of secular-rational values and the values of self-expression, democracy and trade (openness to the world) have a positive effect on the level of welfare of countries. The empirical part of the paper is based on the comparative analysis of relationship between GDP per capita and four values such as tolerance and respect, obedience, trust and freedom of choice for two waves of WVS – 2005-2009 and 2010-2014. Using correlation and regression analysis, the relationships between these indicators were evaluated. These values have a positive impact on welfare in OECD countries, some countries of Latin America, Asia and Africa with middle income per capita. However, there is a negative relationship between obedience and GDP per capita. This value is more important for some African and Asian countries and India. The relationship between GDP per capita and the aggregate value index showed a strong positive correlation for OECD countries. Then the regression model was estimated to assess the impact of values, trade and level of democracy on welfare growth and development. The results of the regression analysis showed a significant effect of the aggregated value indicator for all six samples, but this effect is weaker for high-income countries. The effect of the level of democracy is significant and positive only for the sub-sample of democratic countries, while it is negative for high-income countries. The effect of the level of trade on GDP per capita is statistically significant for the sample of all countries, the sub-sample of non-democratic countries and the sub-sample of high income and upper-middle income countries. Thus, we conclude that the institutional factors (the values and the level of democracy) are important determinants of GDP per capita for democratic countries while for non-democratic countries trade is more important.

FCTC Ratification, Smoking Prevalence and GDP per Capita : Lesson Learn for Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdillah Ahsan ◽  
Rifai Afin ◽  
Nadira Amalia ◽  
Martha Hindriyani ◽  
Ardhini Risfa Jacinda
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Tobacco Industry ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The stagnated tobacco control progress in Indonesia needs to be accelerated through a more comprehensive implementation of Framework Convention of Tobacco Control (FCTC) measurement. Nevertheless, the tobacco industry argument concerning the negative economic impacts of tobacco control still hinders the government to ratify or even sign the FCTC, which has been ratified by more than 180 countries. This study aims to bring the empirical evidence on the tobacco industry argument concerning FCTC. This study applied two stage least square estimation strategy to unbalanced panel data at country level. On the first stage we estimate the impact FCTC ratification on smoking activity, and on the second step, estimating the influence of smoking activities on macroeconomic performance.Results The result of this study shows that FCTC ratification is negatively related to a country’s smoking prevalence, in which the ratifying party of FCTC has lower smoking prevalence. Moreover, country who ratifies FCTC longer is also associated with lower smoking prevalence. Whereas FCTC ratification is beneficial in reducing smoking prevalence, the declining smoking prevalence is not related to the decline in GDP per capita.Conclusions The result of this study shows the decrease in smoking prevalence has nothing to do with the macroeconomic indicator. Hence, FCTC ratification, which is an important driver for tobacco control actions acceleration, should not be seen as a backfire to the economy. Instead, FCTC ratification could be mutually beneficial for the health and economic aspects as it provides comprehensive guidance and protocols by taking into account the well-being states of both aspects.

scholarly journals The Impacts of Financial Development on Green and Non-Green Energy Consumption: Empirical Evidence From OPEC Countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faris Alshubiri ◽  
Mohamed Elheddad ◽  
Syed Jamil ◽  
Nassima Djellouli
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Green Energy ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Green Growth ◽  
The World ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper aims to examine the impact of financial development on green and non-green energy consumption in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) over the period of 1990–2015.The data was collected from the Green Growth Knowledge Platform Database and the World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank for 14 OPEC countries over the period of 1990–2015.We used two different proxies for financial development: (1) domestic financial development, measured by domestic credit in the private sector as a percentage of gross domestic product(GDP), and (2)foreign financial development, measured by the foreign direct investment (FDI) stock as a share of GDP. The main model developed three hypotheses; the first two were sub-hypotheses that characterized green energy through proxies: access to improved sanitation and access to electricity. The third hypothesis was anon-green (brown) energy proxy using CO2 emissions per capita. All three hypotheses used five control variables: by GDP per capita, urbanisation/total population ratio, oil rent/GDP ratio, investment/GDP per capita ratio and trade openness. In order to evaluate these hypotheses, we used the instrumental-variable (IV) approach with a fixed effect option to control for both endogeneity and heterogeneity, and we used the lags of the independent variables as instruments for financial development, as lagged variables are arguably exogenous. The impacts of financial development on environmental quality varied between foreign direct investments (foreign financial development) and the domestic credit ratio (domestic financial development). Our main results suggest that FDI degrades environmental quality in OPEC economies, and FDI represents a source of pollution by increasing CO2 emissions per capita (non-renewable) by about 0.0224% and decreasing non-renewable energy consumption variables. In other words, FDI’s non-renewable and renewable relationship supports the non-green growth hypothesis.JEL Classification B22. B26. D53. E21. F63. K32

scholarly journals Revising Growth Theory in the Artificial Age: Putty and Clay Labor

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 65-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Puaschunder
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Mobile Internet ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Significant Determinant ◽  
Internet Connectivity ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Global Connectivity

The introduction of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in our contemporary society imposes historically unique challenges for humankind.  The emerging autonomy of AI holds unique potentials of eternal life of robots, AI and algorithms alongside unprecedented economic superiority, data storage and computational advantages.  Yet to this day, it remains unclear what impact AI taking over the workforce will have on economic growth.  This paper therefore first establishes what AI is and provides a theoretical background on standard neoclassical and heterodox economics growth theories with particular attention to the Cambridge Capital Controversy’s argument to divide capital components into fluid, hence more flexible (e.g., petty cash, checking account), and more clay, hence more inflexible (e.g., factories and intransferable means of production), components.  The contemporary trend of slowbalisation is described, as the slowing down of conventional globalization of goods, services and Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) flows; yet at the same time, we still see human migration and air travel as well as data transfer continuing to rise.  These market trends of conventional globalization slowing and rising AI-related industries are proposed as first market disruption in the wake of the large-scale entrance of AI into our contemporary economy.  Growth in the artificial age is then proposed to be measured based on two AI entrance proxies of Global Connectivity Index and The State of the Mobile Internet Connectivity 2018 Index, which is found to be highly significantly positively correlated with the total inflow of migrants and FDI inflow – serving as evidence that the still globalizing rising industries in the age of slowbalisation are connected to AI.  Both indices are positively correlated with GDP output in cross-sectional studies over the world.  In order to clarify if the found effect is a sign of industrialization, time series of worldwide data reveal that internet connectivity around the world is associated with lower economic growth from around 2000 on until 2017.  A regression plotting Internet Connectivity and GDP per capita as independent variables to explain the dependent variable GDP growth outlines that the effect for AI is a significant determinant of negative GDP growth prospects for the years from 2000 until 2017.  A panel regression plotting GDP per capita and internet connectivity from the year 2000 to explain economic growth consolidates the finding that AI-internet connectivity is a significant determinant of negative growth over time for 161 countries of the world.  Internet connectivity is associated with economic growth decline whereas GDP per capita has no significant relation with GDP growth.  To cross-validate both findings hold for two different global connectivity measurements.  The paper then discusses a theoretical argument of dividing labor components into fluid, hence more flexible (e.g., AI), and more clay, hence more inflexible (e.g., human labor), components.  The paper ends on a call for revising growth theories and integrating AI components into growth theory.  AI entrance into economic markets is modeled into the standard neoclassical growth theory by creating a novel index for representing growth in the artificial age comprised of GDP per capita and AI entrance measured by the proxy of Internet Access percent per country.  Maps reveal the parts of the world that feature high GDP per capita and AI-connectivity.  The discussion closes with a future outlook on the law and economics of AI entrance into our contemporary economies and society in order to aid a successful and humane introduction of AI into our world. 

scholarly journals Influence of Logistics Competitiveness and Logistics Cost on Economic Development: An FsQCA Qualitative Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-64
Author(s):  
Mohan Saini ◽  
Denisa Hrušecká
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Qualitative Comparative Analysis ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Logistics Performance Index ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Logistics is an important sector that determines a country’s economic strategy while attaining higher impetus in terms of globalization and competitiveness. Infrastructure along with trade friendly government policies are the key important parameters for a competitive logistics sector. One such method to evaluate competency is the logistics performance index (LPI) by the World Bank. This index evaluates the logistics performance of the economies of the world and rank them on the basis of six parameters (customs, infrastructure, timeliness, tracking & tracing, logistics competence and international shipments). This research study illustrates the impact of logistics costs (LC) and logistics competency parameters (LPI) on the economic development. The fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) methodology is applied to identify the causal configuration relations for higher values of economic development (GDP per capita). Eight major economies across Asia (China, India, Japan, Singapore), Europe (Germany, France), the UK and the USA have been studied for the analysis. The Czech Republic and Slovenia are also included to the list of countries to have a perspective of mid-sized economies. These mid-size economies are landlocked countries (Czech Republic) and a smaller port sector (Slovenia) for logistics. The results indicate two configurations of LPI and LC that lead to higher values of GDP per capita. The major contribution to the existing literature is in identifying the influence of LPI index parameters along with LC on the economic development. The associated results illustrate that logistics competence, infrastructure and tracking & tracing of LPI index are identified as the core parameters, resulting in the higher values of GDP per capita. The results offer various insights into future area of research for evaluating new parameters such a LC to be inducted in LPI for evaluating logistics performance.

scholarly journals The Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Ukraine

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Iryna Kondrat ◽  
Olena Pozniakova ◽  
Oksana Chervinska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
The State ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The Public ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

<p><strong>Theoretical background:</strong> The growth in government borrowing, carried out in connection with the banks’ capitalisation, significantly increased the state budget expenditures aimed at servicing the capitalisation domestic public debt, which reinforces the general tendency regarding the exacerbation of the budget risk in the debt sphere in Ukraine. A weighty debt-creating factor was the budget deficit, which was covered by borrowing. Proceeding ahead of the rate of increase in debt volumes in comparison with gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates under the influence of internal and external destabilising factors contributed to the excess of the debt levels security indicators and increased the insolvency risk of the state. The increase of the obligations share denominated in foreign currency or linked to the exchange rate in the overall debt structure as an important indicator of the financial system’s vulnerability to exchange rate fluctuations creates additional threats to debt sustainability regarding the increasing currency risk and the national currency devaluation.</p><p><strong>Purpose of the article:</strong> The article is focused on studying the dynamics and structure of Ukraine’s public debt, its ratio to GDP, and an empirical analysis of the relationship between public debt (external and domestic) and economic growth in Ukraine.</p><p><strong>Research methods:</strong> To empirically test the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Ukraine over the 1992 to 2018 period, multiple regression models were conducted. A real GDP per capita was used as an indicator for economic growth and the debt-to-GDP ratio was used as an index of public debt. Research hypotheses were the following: H1: The public external debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP per capita have a strong negative and statistically relevant correlation; H2: The public domestic debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP per capita have a strong negative and statistically relevant correlation.</p><p><strong>Main findings:</strong> Examining the dynamics and structure of Ukraine’s public debt by borrowing market (external and domestic), it is concluded that there is no strong negative or positive statistically relevant correlation between the public debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP per capita for Ukraine. The impact of this factor is so insignificant that it encourages further research to verify that low GDP growth rate causes the increase in Ukraine’s public debt.</p>

scholarly journals Brexit spillovers through international trade and foreign investment: Empirical evidence from EU-27 and the UK

2020 ◽  
pp. 8-8
Author(s):  
Graţiela Noja ◽  
Mirela Cristea ◽  
Atila Yüksel
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

This study examines the Brexit spillovers upon the European Union Member States (MS) (EU-27) and the UK through two fundamental freedoms of regional integration: goods and services (international trade), and capital (foreign investment, FDI). We have applied cluster analysis and structural equation modelling on a strongly balanced panel of EU-27 and the UK. Both techniques explore two scenarios that focus on the performances achieved by the EU-MS in terms of GDP per capita and GDP growth, under the impact of trade and FDI, before and after the Brexit (1995-2019 and 2020-2025 periods). Our results show that the UK?s economy will be affected both related to GDP growth and GDP per capita levels, particularly on the short run. The EU-27 impact largely differs across countries and types of international activities, being decisively influenced through the FDI relations. Overall, the spillovers induced by international flows are positive, but significantly diminished after the Brexit.

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