scholarly journals The Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Ukraine

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Iryna Kondrat ◽  
Olena Pozniakova ◽  
Oksana Chervinska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
The State ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The Public ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

<p><strong>Theoretical background:</strong> The growth in government borrowing, carried out in connection with the banks’ capitalisation, significantly increased the state budget expenditures aimed at servicing the capitalisation domestic public debt, which reinforces the general tendency regarding the exacerbation of the budget risk in the debt sphere in Ukraine. A weighty debt-creating factor was the budget deficit, which was covered by borrowing. Proceeding ahead of the rate of increase in debt volumes in comparison with gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates under the influence of internal and external destabilising factors contributed to the excess of the debt levels security indicators and increased the insolvency risk of the state. The increase of the obligations share denominated in foreign currency or linked to the exchange rate in the overall debt structure as an important indicator of the financial system’s vulnerability to exchange rate fluctuations creates additional threats to debt sustainability regarding the increasing currency risk and the national currency devaluation.</p><p><strong>Purpose of the article:</strong> The article is focused on studying the dynamics and structure of Ukraine’s public debt, its ratio to GDP, and an empirical analysis of the relationship between public debt (external and domestic) and economic growth in Ukraine.</p><p><strong>Research methods:</strong> To empirically test the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Ukraine over the 1992 to 2018 period, multiple regression models were conducted. A real GDP per capita was used as an indicator for economic growth and the debt-to-GDP ratio was used as an index of public debt. Research hypotheses were the following: H1: The public external debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP per capita have a strong negative and statistically relevant correlation; H2: The public domestic debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP per capita have a strong negative and statistically relevant correlation.</p><p><strong>Main findings:</strong> Examining the dynamics and structure of Ukraine’s public debt by borrowing market (external and domestic), it is concluded that there is no strong negative or positive statistically relevant correlation between the public debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP per capita for Ukraine. The impact of this factor is so insignificant that it encourages further research to verify that low GDP growth rate causes the increase in Ukraine’s public debt.</p>

scholarly journals The influence of demographic factors on the economic development of the Azerbaijan: the interconnection problem

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saleh Nagiyev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
World Population ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Demographic factors have sometimes occupied center-stage in the discussion of the sources of economic growth. In the 18th century, Thomas Malthus made the pessimistic forecast that GDP growth per capita would fall due to a continued rapid increase in world population. There is a straightforward accounting relationship when identifying the sources of economic growth: Growth Rate of GDP = Growth Rate of Population + Growth Rate of GDP per capita, where GDP per capita is simply GDP divided by population. This article examines the interconnection between economic development and the demographic policy of Azerbaijan. The article analyzes various approaches of the impact of demographic factors on the economic development of a country. The following demographic factors have been identified and described as significant for the economic development: fertility dynamics, mortality dynamics, population size and gender and age structure.

scholarly journals PUBLIC DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH – THE CASE OF THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (21) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristijan Kozheski ◽  
Predrag Trpeski ◽  
Marijana Cvetanoska ◽  
Gunter Merdžan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
The Other ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

Establishing and maintaining macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline on the one hand, and stimulating economic activity, by enhancing the quality of public finances, increasing capital expenditures, and enhancing competitiveness in the Macedonian economy, on the other hand, are two opposing objectives that should be pursued by policymakers. Government borrowing, especially foreign borrowing, is an important source of fixed assets to cover public expenditure. However, the sustainability of public debt depends not only on the level of public debt, but also on the structure and successful implementation of policies to boost economic growth. Borrowing for a country with low economic potential and a constant shortage of capital is inevitable, especially external borrowing. However, the structure, purpose of the assets and their multiplier effect on the overall economy are the main criteria for assessing the impact of public debt on the economy. This paper attempts to apply the econometric VAR analysis to examine the correlation and causal relationship between public debt and economic growth rate of the case of the Republic of North Macedonia for the period 2002 - 2017. The variables to be analyzed are: GDP growth per capita, Public debt as a proportion of GDP, Gross Domestic Investment, Interest Rate and Government Spending. For the purpose of this analysis, a Granger causality test has been conducted. The test results indicate that the impact of public debt growth in North Macedonia does not have a significant impact on GDP growth per capita. The other test that is being conducted is a Vector Error Correction Model which shows that public debt is negatively correlated with short run and long run economic growth.

IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT DEBT ON FINANCIAL SECURITY OF UKRAINE

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Pikaliuk ◽  
◽  
Dmitry Kovalenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
The State ◽  
Financial Security ◽  
State Budget ◽  
The Public ◽  
Debt Security ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

One of the main criteria for economic development is the size of the public debt and its dynamics. The article considers the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine. The views of scientists on the essence of public debt and financial security of the state are substantiated. An analysis of the dynamics and structure of public debt of Ukraine for 2014-2019. It is proved that one of the main criteria for economic development is the size of public debt and its dynamics. State budget deficit, attracting and using loans to cover it have led to the formation and significant growth of public debt in Ukraine. The volume of public debt indicates an increase in the debt security of the state, which is a component of financial security. Therefore, the issue of the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine is becoming increasingly relevant. The constant growth and large amounts of debt make it necessary to study it, which will have a positive impact on economic processes that will ensure the stability of the financial system and enhance its security.

scholarly journals Examining GDP Growth and Its Volatility: An Episodic Approach

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Jakub Bartak ◽  
Łukasz Jabłoński ◽  
Agnieszka Jastrzębska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita

In this paper, we study economic growth and its volatility from an episodic perspective. We first demonstrate the ability of the genetic algorithm to detect shifts in the volatility and levels of a given time series. Having shown that it works well, we then use it to detect structural breaks that segment the GDP per capita time series into episodes characterized by different means and volatility of growth rates. We further investigate whether a volatile economy is likely to grow more slowly and analyze the determinants of high/low growth with high/low volatility patterns. The main results indicate a negative relationship between volatility and growth. Moreover, the results suggest that international trade simultaneously promotes growth and increases volatility, human capital promotes growth and stability, and financial development reduces volatility and negatively correlates with growth.

scholarly journals The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on National Income: Evidence from Azerbaijan

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1695
Author(s):  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Sugra Humbatova ◽  
Mubariz Mammadli ◽  
Natig Gadim‒Oglu Hajiyev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Trade Turnover ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the influence of oil price shocks on GDP per capita, exchange rate, and total trade turnover in Azerbaijan using the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) method to data collected from 1992 to 2019. The estimation results of the SVAR method conclude that oil price shocks (rise in oil prices) affect GDP per capita and total trade turnover positively, whereas its influence on the exchange rate is negative in the case of Azerbaijan. According to results of this study, Azerbaijan and similar oil-exporting countries should reduce the dependence of GDP per capita, the exchange rate, and total trade turnover from oil resources and its prices in the global market. Therefore, these countries should attempt to the diversification of GDP per capita, the exchange rate, and other sources of total trade turnover.

ISSUES OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE STATE BUDGET AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (7) ◽  
pp. 4-19
Author(s):  
Akmal Baltayevich Allakuliev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
The State ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Dynamic Correlations ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The article examines the interaction of the country's GDP with the state budget in the short and long term, the impact of the macro-fiscal mechanism on the country's economic growth on the example of Uzbekistan.The aim of the study is to identify dynamic correlations between the country's state budget expenditures and the economic growth of the macro-fiscal mechanism in the short and long term, as well as to analyze the approximation or rate of return of GDP and the state budget to equilibrium during various macroeconomic shocks. and hesitation.The scientific novelties of the research are:

The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth: New evidence from Greece

2021 ◽  
pp. 131-153
Author(s):  
Antonia Gkergki
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Econometric Tests ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Research ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between the energy consumption and economic growth from 1968 to 2019 in Greece, by employing the vector error-correction model estimation. A series of econometric tests are employed concerning the stationary of the data, and the co-integration and the relationship among the variables during the long- and short-term. The em-pirical results suggest that there is no bidirectional relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. More specifically, GDP per capita does not affect the energy consump-tion of the three primary sources either in the long-term or the short-term. In other words, the economic crisis and its implications for GDP do not affect energy consumption, and they are not responsible for the considerable decrease in energy sources' consumption. On the other hand, the energy consumption of oil and coal negatively affect the GDP per capita. These re-sults are different from previous studies' conclusions for Greece; this is because the never been experienced before. These findings raise new research questions and also show the limi-tations of the Greek market, as it is regulated and controlled by the government.

Measuring the Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth

2007 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanislav Ivanov ◽  
Craig Webster
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Equilibrium Models ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Models ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents a methodology for measuring the contribution of tourism to an economy's growth, which is tested with data for Cyprus, Greece and Spain. The authors use the growth of real GDP per capita as a measure of economic growth and disaggregate it into economic growth generated by tourism and economic growth generated by other industries. The methodology is compared with other existing methodologies; namely, Tourism Satellite Account, Computable General Equilibrium models and econometric modelling of economic growth.

scholarly journals THE CONTRIBUTION OF MIGRATION TO ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE EXAMPLE OF THE CITY OF ZAGREB

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vinko Miličević ◽  
Danijel Knežević ◽  
Zoran Bubaš
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

The problems in this paper belong to the field of migration and economy. The connection between migration and the economy has been proven on a global level, and as far as the Republic of Croatia is concerned, it is especially important to observe it through the City of Zagreb, which is the most important migration and economic center in the Republic of Croatia. Also, the accession of the Republic of Croatia to the European Union emphasized the observation and research of this connection because it created the preconditions for freer movement and employment of the population of the Republic of Croatia and the City of Zagreb within the European Union. The aim of this paper is to determine the contribution of migration to the economic growth of the City of Zagreb. The hypothesis presented in the paper is that there is a significant contribution of migration to the economic growth of the City of Zagreb. The disposition of the paper consists of six parts. The introduction explains the relevance of the topic, states the aim of the paper and hypotheses, explains the empirical part, the contribution of the paper and the disposition. The second part of the paper refers to the theoretical framework of the impact of migration on economic growth. The third part of the paper presents the migration processes of the City of Zagreb in the period from 2011 to 2018. The fourth part deals with economic activity in the City of Zagreb in the period from 2011 to 2017. The observed indicators of economic activity in the City of Zagreb are GDP and GDP per capita, and the graph in this part of the paper shows that GDP and GDP per capita in the observed period are higher at the end of the period than at the beginning. The fifth part of the paper refers to the empirical research of the contribution of migration to the economic growth of the City of Zagreb. The empirical part of the paper is based on correlations and regression analyses. This paper proves the hypothesis because the results indicate a significant impact of the variables of total and external migration on the GDP of the City of Zagreb and GDP per capita of the City of Zagreb. Decision-makers in the City of Zagreb can use the results of the research as a basis for maximizing the economic benefits they can get from migration. The conclusion provides an overview of the aim of the work, the results of the research, the limitations, the implications and the recommendations for future research.

scholarly journals The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors In Economic Growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alush Kryeziu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
The Public ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

In this paper will be discussed the main concepts and trends of the macro-fiscal indicators in economic growth, as well as their importance in the economic development of different countries, with special emphasis in Kosovo. One of the aims of this paper is to define and explain the connection between macroeconomic indicators with specific emphasis: the public debt, budget deficit and inflation on economic growth. In order to analyze this impact of variables in economic growth, the targeted time period of research is the period from 2004 to 2014. While the data taken regarding Kosovo were obtained from the year 2005, due to the fact that earlier the data have been limited because of the developments in which Kosovo went through. The model that best represents the link between macro-fiscal indicators on economic growth is the linear regression as an econometric model. We will have the opportunity to see and interpret these data. The overall results have emerged in accordance with theoretical discussions presented, but this relationship has not turned out to be very strong because the coefficients acquired did not have great explanatory skills for economic phenomena.

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