Modelling the impacts of projected future climate change on water resources in north-west England

Abstract. Over the last two decades, the frequency of water resource drought in the UK, coupled with the more recent pan-European drought of 2003, has increased concern over changes in climate. Using the UKCIP02 Medium-High (SRES A2) scenario for 2070–2100, this study investigates the impact of climate change on the operation of the Integrated Resource Zone (IRZ), a complex conjunctive-use water supply system in north-western England. The results indicate that the contribution of individual sources to yield may change substantially but that overall yield is reduced by only 18%. Notwithstanding this significant effect on water supply, the flexibility of the system enables it to meet modelled demand for much of the time under the future climate scenario, even without a change in system management, but at significant expense for pumping additional abstraction from lake and borehole sources. This research provides a basis for the future planning and management of the complex water resource system in the north-west of England.

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An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-368-257-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 368 ◽

pp. 257-262

Author(s):

K. Lin ◽

W. Zhai ◽

S. Huang ◽

Z. Liu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

South China ◽

Annual Runoff ◽

Future Climate ◽

Weather Data ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Dongjiang River ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

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Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran

Water Science & Technology Water Supply ◽

10.2166/ws.2020.367 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Pedram Mahdavi ◽

Hossein Ghorbanizadeh Kharazi ◽

Hossein Eslami ◽

Narges Zohrabi ◽

Majid Razaz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Period ◽

Drought Assessment ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Abstract Global warming affected by human activities causes changes in the regime of rivers. Rivers are one of the most vital sources that supply fresh water. Therefore, management, planning, and proper use of rivers will be crucial for future climate change conditions. This study investigated the monitoring of hydrological drought in a future period to examine the impact of climate change on the discharging flow of the Zard River basin in Iran. Zard River is an important supplier of fresh and agricultural water in a vast area of Khuzestan province in Iran. A continuous rainfall-runoff model based on Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) algorithm was applied to simulate the discharge flow under 10 scenarios (obtained from LARS-WG.6 software) of future climate change. Then, the Stream-flow Drought Index (SDI) and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) were calculated for each climate change scenario for the future period (2041–2060). The results of the meteorological drought assessment showed that near normal and moderate droughts had higher proportions among other drought conditions. Moreover, the hydrological drought assessment showed the occurrence of two new droughts (severe and extreme) conditions for the future period (2041–2060) that has never happened in the past (1997–2016).

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Parameterization of the rainfall-runoff model in changing climate

Pollack Periodica ◽

10.1556/606.2021.00340 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Milica Aleksić ◽

Patrik Sleziak ◽

Kamila Hlavčová

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Climate Scenario ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Rainfall Runoff Model ◽

The Impact ◽

Runoff Model

AbstractA conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used for estimating the impact of climate change on the runoff regime in the Myjava River basin. Changes in climatic characteristics for future decades were expressed by a regional climate model using the A1B emission scenario. The model was calibrated for 1981–1990, 1991–2000, 2001–2010, 2011–2019. The best set of model parameters selected from the recent calibration period was used to simulate runoff for three periods, which should reflect the level of future climate change. The results show that the runoff should increase in the winter months (December and January) and decrease in the summer months (June to August). An evaluation of the long-term mean monthly runoff for the future climate scenario indicates that the highest runoff will occur in March.

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Assessment of Future Climate Change Impact on an Agricultural Reservoir in South Korea

Water ◽

10.3390/w13152125 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (15) ◽

pp. 2125

Author(s):

Jaenam Lee ◽

Hyungjin Shin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South Korea ◽

Water Supply ◽

Water Resource ◽

Irrigation Water ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Supply Capacity ◽

Agricultural Reservoir

Drought has been frequently occurring in South Korea due to climate change. Analyzing the water supply capacity of the water resource system provides essential information for water resource management. This study evaluates the future water supply capacity of the Gwanghye (GH) agricultural reservoir based on the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. We performed a reservoir simulation by reflecting the full water level of the reservoir before and after reservoir heightening. Climate change is expected to decrease the GH reservoir’s future available water resources due to the overall reduction in the reservoir’s runoff. After the reservoir-heightening project, an overall improvement was observed in the stability of the future irrigation water supply. Moreover, the remaining water after the supply of the irrigation water could supply 0.6–7.2 × 103 m3 of daily instream water. Thus, flexible reservoir operations are necessary according to climate change scenarios and the reservoir operation period. The use of climate change information should be expanded to establish reasonable water management policies for future climate change scenarios.

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Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-021-01799-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Susanne Rolinski ◽

Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽

Georg Guggenberger ◽

Norbert Bischoff ◽

Irina Kurganova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Arable Land ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

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Predicted Future Benefits for an Endemic Rodent in the Irano-Turanian Region

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli9010016 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 16

Author(s):

Suzanna Meeussen ◽

Anouschka Hof

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Geographic Range ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Distribution Ranges ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Suitable Area ◽

The Impact

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.

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How will future climate depending agronomic management impact the yield risk of wheat cropping systems? A regional case study of Eastern Denmark

The Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.1017/s0021859620001045 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-16

Author(s):

J. Macholdt ◽

J. Glerup Gyldengren ◽

E. Diamantopoulos ◽

M. E. Styczen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Production ◽

Cropping Systems ◽

Future Climate ◽

Catch Crops ◽

Agronomic Management ◽

The Future ◽

Yield Risk ◽

Management Factors ◽

The Impact

Abstract One of the major challenges in agriculture is how climate change influences crop production, for different environmental (soil type, topography, groundwater depth, etc.) and agronomic management conditions. Through systems modelling, this study aims to quantify the impact of future climate on yield risk of winter wheat for two common soil types of Eastern Denmark. The agro-ecosystem model DAISY was used to simulate arable, conventional cropping systems (CSs) and the study focused on the three main management factors: cropping sequence, usage of catch crops and cereal straw management. For the case region of Eastern Denmark, the future yield risk of wheat does not necessarily increase under climate change mainly due to lower water stress in the projections; rather, it depends on appropriate management and each CS design. Major management factors affecting the yield risk of wheat were N supply and the amount of organic material added during rotations. If a CS is characterized by straw removal and no catch crop within the rotation, an increased wheat yield risk must be expected in the future. In contrast, more favourable CSs, including catch crops and straw incorporation, maintain their capacity and result in a decreasing yield risk over time. Higher soil organic matter content, higher net nitrogen mineralization rate and higher soil organic nitrogen content were the main underlying causes for these positive effects. Furthermore, the simulation results showed better N recycling and reduced nitrate leaching for the more favourable CSs, which provide benefits for environment-friendly and sustainable crop production.

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Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions

Bulletin of Entomological Research ◽

10.1017/s0007485321000195 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-9

Author(s):

Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos ◽

Cesar Augusto Marchioro

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Linear Model ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Temperature Dependent ◽

Dependent Development ◽

Degree Day ◽

Non Linear ◽

The Impact

Abstract The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

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A simulation study on the effect of climate change on crop water use and chill unit accumulation

South African Journal of Science ◽

10.17159/sajs.2017/20160119 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 113 (7/8) ◽

Author(s):

Abiodun A. Ogundeji ◽

Henry Jordaan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Use ◽

Irrigation System ◽

Future Climate ◽

Crop Water ◽

Crop Water Use ◽

Chill Unit ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Climate change and its impact on already scarce water resources are of global importance, but even more so for water scarce countries. Apart from the effect of climate change on water supply, the chill unit requirement of deciduous fruit crops is also expected to be affected. Although research on crop water use has been undertaken, researchers have not taken the future climate into consideration. They also have focused on increasing temperatures but failed to relate temperature to chill unit accumulation, especially in South Africa. With a view of helping farmers to adapt to climate change, in this study we provide information that will assist farmers in their decision-making process for adaptation and in the selection of appropriate cultivars of deciduous fruits. Crop water use and chill unit requirements are modelled for the present and future climate. Results show that, irrespective of the irrigation system employed, climate change has led to increases in crop water use. Water use with the drip irrigation system was lower than with sprinkler irrigation as a result of efficiency differences in the irrigation technologies. It was also confirmed that the accumulated chill units will decrease in the future as a consequence of climate change. In order to remain in production, farmers need to adapt to climate change stress by putting in place water resources and crop management plans. Thus, producers must be furnished with a variety of adaptation or management strategies to overcome the impact of climate change.

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