scholarly journals Copula based multisite model for daily precipitation simulation

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2299-2314 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bárdossy ◽  
G. G. S. Pegram
Keyword(s):  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Separation Distance ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Simulated Rainfall ◽  
Precipitation Simulation ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Equilateral Triangles ◽  
Mutual Separation ◽  
Rainfall Occurrences

Abstract. From the point of view of multisite stochastic daily rainfall modelling, there are two new ideas introduced in this paper. The first is the use of asymmetrical copulas to model the spatial interdependence structure of the rainfall amounts together with the rainfall occurrences in one relationship. The second is in the evaluation of the (necessary but often ignored) congregating behaviour of the higher values of simulated rainfall; this evaluation is performed by calculating the entropy of the observations at all the near equilateral triangles that can be formed from the sequences at the gauge sites, as a function of their mutual separation distance. It turns out that the model captures the qualities desired and offers a fresh approach to a relatively mature problem in hydrometeorology.

scholarly journals Copula based multisite model for daily precipitation simulation

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 4485-4534 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bárdossy ◽  
G. Pegram
Keyword(s):  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Separation Distance ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Simulated Rainfall ◽  
Precipitation Simulation ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Mutual Separation ◽  
Spatial Interdependence ◽  
Rainfall Occurrences

Abstract. From the point of view of multisite stochastic daily rainfall modelling, there are two new ideas introduced in this paper. The first is the use of asymmetrical copulas to model the spatial interdependence structure of the rainfall amounts together with the rainfall occurrences in one relationship. The second is in the evaluation of the (necessary but often ignored) clustering behaviour of the simulated rainfall; this evaluation is performed by calculating the entropy of the observations at all the acute angled triangles that can be formed from the sequences at the gauge sites, as a function of their mutual separation distance. It turns out that the model captures the qualities desired and offers a fresh approach to a relatively mature problem in hydrometeorology.

scholarly journals Stochastic daily precipitation model with a heavy-tailed component

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 2321-2335 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. M. Neykov ◽  
P. N. Neytchev ◽  
W. Zucchini
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Skewed Distribution ◽  
Generalized Pareto ◽  
Precipitation Model ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
Heavy Tailed ◽  
Standard Software

Abstract. Stochastic daily precipitation models are commonly used to generate scenarios of climate variability or change on a daily timescale. The standard models consist of two components describing the occurrence and intensity series, respectively. Binary logistic regression is used to fit the occurrence data, and the intensity series is modeled using a continuous-valued right-skewed distribution, such as gamma, Weibull or lognormal. The precipitation series is then modeled using the joint density, and standard software for generalized linear models can be used to perform the computations. A drawback of these precipitation models is that they do not produce a sufficiently heavy upper tail for the distribution of daily precipitation amounts; they tend to underestimate the frequency of large storms. In this study, we adapted the approach of Furrer and Katz (2008) based on hybrid distributions in order to correct for this shortcoming. In particular, we applied hybrid gamma–generalized Pareto (GP) and hybrid Weibull–GP distributions to develop a stochastic precipitation model for daily rainfall at Ihtiman in western Bulgaria. We report the results of simulations designed to compare the models based on the hybrid distributions and those based on the standard distributions. Some potential difficulties are outlined.

scholarly journals Formation of clusters in cultural heritage – strategies for optimizing resources in museums

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Héctor Moreno - Mendoza ◽  
Agustín Santana - Talavera ◽  
José Molina - González
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Cultural Development ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Homogeneous Groups ◽  
Heritage Sites ◽  
Tourism Product ◽  
New Ideas

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to affirm that it is possible to segment visitors of cultural heritage into homogeneous groups according to a series of characteristics to detect the variables that have statistical significance to identify visitor clusters.Design/methodology/approachFour case studies were selected, where a total of 500 questionnaires were made to visitors. The authors proceeded with cluster analysis using SPSS software to differentiate visitor segments. Four groups of visitors were first identified and which have subsequently been reduced to three, according to several factors.FindingsThe main contributions of this paper are: (1) the segment to which each one of the determinants of the cultural tourism product is dedicated; (2) the variable object of the analysis, i.e. the formation of visitor segments; and (3) the inclusion of less studied variables such as type of accommodation contracted, treatment offered in the museums or entrance price.Research limitations/implicationsThe analysis has been developed in different museums, with different management models, in a specific place. However, the results are generalizable to other places and to other institutions that manage cultural heritage. The implications are management strategies for a sustainable cultural development in institutions of tourism and heritage.Practical implicationsFrom a practical point of view, the results are useful for cultural managers, travel agencies, tour operators, tourism companies or political offices, among others, because they generate new ideas and strategies focused on maximizing the use of the resources of cultural institutions.Social implicationsFor both local and non-local agents, the knowledge of the factors that make up the groups of visitors in the heritage sites represents a strategy in aspects of marketing, promotion and distribution, thus generating capacities for the different intermediaries, and the possibility of negotiating lower prices with better benefits. It is also possible to create new products destined for other publics.Originality/valueThe study is original because this has not been published.

scholarly journals Precipitation Regime and Temporal Changes in the Central Danubian Lowland Region

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dana Halmova ◽  
Pavla Pekarova ◽  
Juraj Olbrimek ◽  
Pavol Miklanek ◽  
Jan Pekar
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Initial Hypothesis ◽  
Frequency Curves

The aim of this paper is to investigate the statistical aspects of multiannual variability of precipitation at the Hurbanovo station, Slovakia, over 140 years (1872–2011). We compare the long-term variability of annual precipitation for Hurbanovo (Slovakia), Brno (Czech Republic), Vienna (Austria), and Mosonmagyarovar (Hungary) stations using autocorrelation and spectral analysis methods. From the long-term point of view, there is no consistent trend in the annual precipitation; only a multiannual variability has been detected. Consequently we identify changes in the distribution of annual maximum daily precipitation for Hurbanovo during different periods for winter-spring and summer-autumn seasons using histograms, empirical exceedance curves, and frequency curves of daily precipitation. Next, we calculate the periods of days without precipitation exceeding 29 days between 1872 and 2011. The longest period of days without precipitation was 83 days in 1947. The statistical analysis does not confirm our initial hypothesis that neither high daily precipitation (over 51.2 mm per day) nor long dry periods (more than 50 days without precipitation) would occur more frequently nowadays. We assume that the decrease in annual precipitation over the period 1942–2011 (compared to 1872–1941) is caused by the less frequent occurrence of daily precipitation between 0.4 and 25.6 mm.

Service Design

2012 ◽  
pp. 211-222
Author(s):  
Satu Miettinen
Keyword(s):  
Design Process ◽  
Design Thinking ◽  
Service Design ◽  
Design Methods ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Human Interaction ◽  
Service Development ◽  
Service Needs ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Tourism Service

Service design is establishing itself as a method for developing services and service business. Service needs, new ideas and ways to utilise technology are encountered when the customer and the end user participate in the design process. This chapter focuses on service design methods and the process of how service design can help in innovating customer-orientated service concepts for e-tourism. Service design connects the areas of cultural, social and human interaction. Use of design methods acts as a link between the different views in the service design process. Service design is an emerging field where the terminology and methods are still developing. Mager (2009) has pointed out that the need for service design is evident, as economic development has changed dramatically during the last four decades from manufacturing to provision of information and services. Service design looks at service development from the designer’s point of view. Design thinking has the ability to create concepts, solutions and future service experiences for users.

scholarly journals Social Skills Amongst MMORPG-Gamers: Empirical Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
pp. 01008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Sergeyeva ◽  
Anna Tsareva ◽  
Nadezhda Zinoveva ◽  
Olga Kononova
Keyword(s):  
Computer Games ◽  
Interpersonal Relations ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Ordinary People ◽  
Social Culture ◽  
The Real ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Social Interaction Skills

The research paper addresses the issue of the impact of MMORPGs on social culture and communication skills of individuals. The mainstream discourse about computer games which take individuals away from reality and substitute the real life by the fictional one is complemented by brand new ideas, which affirm that computer games do not substitute but supplement the real life and expand its possibilities. To confirm the presented point of view we use diagnostic questionnaire of interpersonal relations by A.A. Rukavishnikov. This questionnaire is aimed to evaluate typical ways of respondent’s attitude towards other people. At this point we have 43 gamers and 29 non-gamers involved in our research, aged 18 to 57. The comparison of a user and non-user answers gives a bigger view on an overall gaming experience. In the obtained indices we note that there are no fundamental differences between MMORPGs gamers and ordinary people. During research, MMORPGs users have showed many important social interaction skills such as striving to control own actions, collaborate with others, though with a low interest in emotionally charged relationships. Authors discuss the idea about the differences between addiction and fascination among gamers.

Proposal of a guide for talent evaluation and management based on a qualitative and three-staged approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1045-1078
Author(s):  
Atheer Abdullah Mohammed ◽  
Abdul Hafeez Baig ◽  
Raj Gururajan
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Talent Management ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Individual Interviews ◽  
Strategic Plans ◽  
Talent Retention ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Value Add

PurposeThe key objective of the study is to understand the best processes that are currently used in managing talent in Australian higher education (AHE) and design a quantitative measurement of talent management processes (TMPs) for the higher education (HE) sector.Design/methodology/approachThe three qualitative multi-method studies that are commonly used in empirical studies, namely, brainstorming, focus group discussions and semi-structured individual interviews were considered. Twenty-three individuals from six Australian universities participated in this study.FindingsThe qualitative study explored three key themes and ten subthemes of TMPs that are used in AHE. These were: (1) talent attraction, (2) talent development and (3) talent retention.Research limitations/implicationsThis study only targeted one country (Australia) and one sector (HE).Practical implicationsThis study offers three major contributions as follows: theoretical, practical and policy aspects. Theoretically, the study provides a value-add to Talent Management (TM) theory through designing a guide (conceptual model) of TMPs for the HE sector. Practically, it collects original qualitative data regarding TM in the HE domain. From a policy point of view, this study adds more debate around adding new ideas to Australian education strategic plans for HE.Originality/valueThis study has a unique methodology because of strengthening the effect of an in-depth case study. For instance, two different techniques were used for data analysis for the same research objective as follows: (1) both manual methods and content analysis software (NVivo 11) and (2) the three-stage approach. Using these techniques for the same purpose in one study can provide greater flexibility to examine the relationship between theory and data.

Concept and Fundamentals of Temporal-Spatial Pulse Representation for Dislocation Source Modeling

2004 ◽  
Vol 71 (6) ◽  
pp. 887-893
Author(s):  
Ray Ruichong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Wave Motion ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Separation Distance ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Mathematical Representation ◽  
Far Field ◽  
Source Modeling ◽  
Dislocation Source ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Field Wave

For far-field wave-motion response to a point dynamic dislocation source, the temporal and spatial features of the source mechanism are characterized, respectively, by two factors, i.e., a source time function for dislocation growth and a combination of nine couples of impulse forces that is equivalent to the final dislocation. The mathematical representation for each of the couples, referred to as spatial couples, is a couple of impulses acting in opposing directions with an infinitesimal separation distance or, in the limit, by the derivative of the impulse with respect to the separation-distance parameter. This study proposes a temporal-spatial pulse representation for the nine couples, referred to as temporal-spatial couples, and subsequently for the dislocation source modeling. Each temporal-spatial couple consists of two impulses acting in opposite directions with both an infinitesimal separation distance and an infinitesimal time delay. By examining dynamite source modeling, this study shows that the proposed representation can intrinsically integrate the spatial and temporal features of the dislocation sources from the response point of view. This study also shows an example of a point, shear-slip seismic source modeling using traditional and proposed pulse representations for far-field wave motion. Discussion is finally provided for the implications of the proposed representation in broad applications.

scholarly journals Are Precipitation Levels Getting Higher? Statistical Evidence for the Netherlands

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (22) ◽  
pp. 4701-4714 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex J. Koning ◽  
Philip Hans Franses
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
Detailed Statistical Analysis ◽  
Nonparametric Techniques ◽  
Rainy Days ◽  
Yearly Data

Abstract One of the possible consequences of global warming is that there will be more days with precipitation throughout the year, and also that the level of precipitation will be higher. In this paper a detailed statistical analysis of a century of daily precipitation levels is provided for the central meteorological station in the Netherlands. This paper shows that the often-considered gamma distribution does not fit well to samples of yearly data. It is argued that its incorrect use can lead to spuriously high probabilities of extreme precipitation levels. Relying on advanced nonparametric techniques, it is first found that there are fewer rainy days in the central part of the Netherlands. Next, more rainy days involve higher precipitation levels. Most importantly, no statistically significant shift is found in the annual largest values of daily rainfall over the course of the century, which suggest that the probability of extremely high levels has not changed over time.

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