scholarly journals Recent climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological changes over the interior of western Canada: a synthesis and review

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 8615-8674 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. M. DeBeer ◽  
H. S. Wheater ◽  
S. K. Carey ◽  
K. P. Chun

Abstract. It is well-established that the Earth's climate system has warmed significantly over the past several decades, and in association there have been widespread changes in various other Earth system components. This has been especially prevalent in the cold regions of the northern mid to high-latitudes. Examples of these changes can be found within the western and northern interior of Canada, a region that exemplifies the scientific and societal issues faced in many other similar parts of the world, and where impacts have global-scale consequences. This region has been the geographic focus of a large amount of previous research on changing climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological Earth system components in recent decades, while current initiatives such as the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) seek to further develop the understanding and diagnosis of this change and hence improve predictive capacity. This paper provides an integrated review of the observed changes in these Earth system components and a concise and up-to-date regional picture of some of the temporal trends over the interior of western Canada since the mid or late-20th century. The focus is on air temperature, precipitation, seasonal snow cover, mountain glaciers, permafrost, freshwater ice cover, and river discharge. Important long-term observational networks and datasets are described, and qualitative linkages among the changing components are highlighted. Systematic warming and significant changes to precipitation, snow and ice regimes are unambiguous. However, integrated effects on streamflow are complex. It is argued that further diagnosis is required before predictions of future change can be made with confidence.

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 1573-1598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris M. DeBeer ◽  
Howard S. Wheater ◽  
Sean K. Carey ◽  
Kwok P. Chun

Abstract. It is well established that the Earth's climate system has warmed significantly over the past several decades, and in association there have been widespread changes in various other Earth system components. This has been especially prevalent in the cold regions of the northern mid- to high latitudes. Examples of these changes can be found within the western and northern interior of Canada, a region that exemplifies the scientific and societal issues faced in many other similar parts of the world, and where impacts have global-scale consequences. This region has been the geographic focus of a large amount of previous research on changing climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological regimes in recent decades, while current initiatives such as the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) introduced in this review seek to further develop the understanding and diagnosis of this change and hence improve the capacity to predict future change. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the observed changes in various Earth system components and a concise and up-to-date regional picture of some of the temporal trends over the interior of western Canada since the mid- or late 20th century. The focus is on air temperature, precipitation, seasonal snow cover, mountain glaciers, permafrost, freshwater ice cover, and river discharge. Important long-term observational networks and data sets are described, and qualitative linkages among the changing components are highlighted. Increases in air temperature are the most notable changes within the domain, rising on average 2 °C throughout the western interior since 1950. This increase in air temperature is associated with hydrologically important changes to precipitation regimes and unambiguous declines in snow cover depth, persistence, and spatial extent. Consequences of warming air temperatures have caused mountain glaciers to recede at all latitudes, permafrost to thaw at its southern limit, and active layers over permafrost to thicken. Despite these changes, integrated effects on stream flow are complex and often offsetting. Following a review of the current literature, we provide insight from a network of northern research catchments and other sites detailing how climate change confounds hydrological responses at smaller scales, and we recommend several priority research areas that will be a focus of continued work in CCRN. Given the complex interactions and process responses to climate change, it is argued that further conceptual understanding and quantitative diagnosis of the mechanisms of change over a range of scales is required before projections of future change can be made with confidence.


Author(s):  
Mark Vellend

This chapter highlights the scale dependence of biodiversity change over time and its consequences for arguments about the instrumental value of biodiversity. While biodiversity is in decline on a global scale, the temporal trends on regional and local scales include cases of biodiversity increase, no change, and decline. Environmental change, anthropogenic or otherwise, causes both local extirpation and colonization of species, and thus turnover in species composition, but not necessarily declines in biodiversity. In some situations, such as plants at the regional scale, human-mediated colonizations have greatly outnumbered extinctions, thus causing a marked increase in species richness. Since the potential influence of biodiversity on ecosystem function and services is mediated to a large degree by local or neighborhood species interactions, these results challenge the generality of the argument that biodiversity loss is putting at risk the ecosystem service benefits people receive from nature.


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. e002885
Author(s):  
Danielle N Poole ◽  
Bethany Hedt-Gauthier ◽  
Till Bärnighausen ◽  
Stéphane Verguet ◽  
Marcia C Castro

IntroductionThe identification of spatial–temporal clusters of forced migrant mortality is urgently needed to inform preventative policies and humanitarian response. As a first step towards understanding the geography of forced migrant mortality, this study investigates spatial–temporal patterns in death at a global scale.MethodsWe used information on the location and dates of forced migrant deaths reported in the International Organization for Migration’s Missing Migrant Project from 2014 to 2018. Kulldorff’s spatial–temporal and seasonal scans were used to detect spatial–temporal and temporal heterogeneity in mortality.ResultsA total of 16 314 deaths were reported during the study period. A preponderance of deaths occurred at sea each year (range 26%–54% across 5 years). Twelve spatial–temporal clusters of forced migrant mortality were detected by maximum likelihood testing. Annually, the period of August–October was associated with a 40-percentage-point increase in the risk of mortality, relative to other time periods.ConclusionsDeath during forced migration occurs close to national borders and during periods of intense conflict. This evidence may inform the design of policies and targeting of interventions to prevent forced migration-related deaths.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Luffarelli ◽  
Yves Govaerts

<p>The CISAR (Combined Inversion of Surface and AeRosols) algorithm is exploited in the framework of the ESA Aerosol Climate Change Initiatiave (CCI) project, aiming at providing a set of atmospheric (cloud and aerosol) and surface reflectance products derived from S3A/SLSTR observations using the same radiative transfer physics and assumptions. CISAR is an advance algorithm developed by Rayference originally designed for the retrieval of aerosol single scattering properties and surface reflectance from both geostationary and polar orbiting satellite observations.  It is based on the inversion of a fast radiative transfer model (FASTRE). The retrieval mechanism allows a continuous variation of the aerosol and cloud single scattering properties in the solution space.</p><p> </p><p>Traditionally, different approaches are exploited to retrieve the different Earth system components, which could lead to inconsistent data sets. The simultaneous retrieval of different atmospheric and surface variables over any type of surface (including bright surfaces and water bodies) with the same forward model and inversion scheme ensures the consistency among the retrieved Earth system components. Additionally, pixels located in the transition zone between pure clouds and pure aerosols are often discarded from both cloud and aerosol algorithms. This “twilight zone” can cover up to 30% of the globe. A consistent retrieval of both cloud and aerosol single scattering properties with the same algorithm could help filling this gap.</p><p> </p><p>The CISAR algorithm aims at overcoming the need of an external cloud mask, discriminating internally between aerosol and cloud properties. This approach helps reducing the overestimation of aerosol optical thickness in cloud contaminated pixels. The surface reflectance product is delivered both for cloud-free and cloudy observations.  </p><p> </p><p>Global maps obtained from the processing of S3A/SLSTR observations will be shown. The SLSTR/CISAR products over events such as, for instance, the Australian fire in the last months of 2019, will be discussed in terms of aerosol optical thickness, aerosol-cloud discrimination and fine/coarse mode fraction.</p>


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Sprovieri ◽  
Nicola Pirrone ◽  
Mariantonia Bencardino ◽  
Francesco D’Amore ◽  
Francesco Carbone ◽  
...  

Abstract. Long-term monitoring data of ambient mercury (Hg) on a global scale to assess its emission, transport, atmospheric chemistry, and deposition processes is vital to understanding the impact of Hg pollution on the environment. The Global Mercury Observation System (GMOS) project was funded by the European Commission (www.gmos.eu), and started in November 2010 with the overall goal to develop a coordinated global observing system to monitor Hg on a global scale, including a large network of ground-based monitoring stations, ad-hoc periodic oceanographic cruises and measurement flights in the lower and upper troposphere, as well as in the lower stratosphere. To date more than 40 ground-based monitoring sites constitute the global network covering many regions where little to no observational data were available before GMOS. This work presents atmospheric Hg concentrations recorded worldwide in the framework of the GMOS project (2010–2015), analyzing Hg measurement results in terms of temporal trends, seasonality and comparability within the network. Major findings highlighted in this paper include a clear gradient of Hg concentrations between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, confirming that the gradient observed is mostly driven by local and regional sources, which can be anthropogenic, natural or a combination of both.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Gutjahr ◽  
Nils Brüggemann ◽  
Helmuth Haak ◽  
Johann H. Jungclaus ◽  
Dian A. Putrasahan ◽  
...  

Abstract. We compare the effects of four different ocean vertical mixing schemes on the ocean mean state simulated by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) in the framework of the Community Vertical Mixing (CVMix) library. Besides the PP and KPP scheme, we implemented the TKE scheme and a recently developed prognostic scheme for internal wave energy and its dissipation (IDEMIX) to replace the often assumed constant background diffusivity in the ocean interior. We analyse in particular the effects of IDEMIX on the ocean mean state, when combined with TKE (TKE+IDEMIX). In general, we find little sensitivity of the ocean surface, but considerable effects for the interior ocean. Overall, we cannot classify any scheme as superior, because they modify biases that vary by region or variable, but produce a similar pattern on the global scale. However, using a more realistic and energetically consistent scheme (TKE+IDEMIX) produces a more heterogeneous pattern of vertical diffusion, with lower diffusivity in deep and flat-bottom basins and elevated turbulence over rough topography. In addition, TKE+IDEMIX improves the circulation in the Nordic Seas and Fram Strait, thus reducing the warm bias of the Atlantic water (AW) layer in the Arctic Ocean to a similar extent as has been demonstrated with eddy-resolving ocean models. We conclude that although shortcomings due to model resolution determine the global-scale bias pattern, the choice of the vertical mixing scheme may play an important role for regional biases.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bertrand Guenet ◽  
Jérémie Orliac ◽  
Lauric Cécillon ◽  
Olivier Torres ◽  
Laurent Bopp

<p>Earth system models (ESMs) are numerical representations of the Earth system aiming at representing the climate dynamic including feedbacks between climate and carbon cycle. CO<sub>2</sub> flux due to soil respiration including heterotrophic respiration coming from the soil organic matter (SOM) microbial decomposition and autotrophic respiration coming from the roots respiration is one of the most important flux between the surface and the atmosphere. Thus, even small changes in this flux may impact drastically the climate dynamic. It is therefore essential that ESMs reliably reproduce soil respiration. Until recently, such an evaluation at global scale of the ESMs was not straightforward because of the absence of observation-derived product to evaluate heterotrophic respiration fluxes from ESMs at global scale. Recently, several gridded products were published opening a new research avenue on climate-carbon feedbacks. In this study, we used simulations from 13 ESMs performed within the sixth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) and we evaluate their capacities to reproduce the heterotrophic respiration flux using three gridded observation-based products. We first evaluate the total heterotrophic respiration flux for each model as well as the spatial patterns. We observed that most of the models are able to reproduce the total heterotrophic respiration flux but the spatial analysis underlined that this was partially due to some bias compensation between regions overestimating the flux and regions underestimating the flux. To better identify the causes of the identified bias in predicting the total heterotrophic respiration flux, we analysed the residues of ESMs using linear mixed effect models and we observed that lithology and climate were the most important drivers of the ESMs residues. Our results suggest that the response of SOM microbial decomposition to soil moisture and temperature must be improved in the next ESMs generation and that the effect of lithology should be better taken into account.</p>


2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 573-586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukas Jonkers ◽  
Michal Kučera

Abstract. The composition of planktonic foraminiferal (PF) calcite is routinely used to reconstruct climate variability. However, PF ecology leaves a large imprint on the proxy signal: seasonal and vertical habitats of PF species vary spatially, causing variable offsets from annual mean surface conditions recorded by sedimentary assemblages. PF seasonality changes with temperature in a way that minimises the environmental change that individual species experience and it is not unlikely that changes in depth habitat also result from such habitat tracking. While this behaviour could lead to an underestimation of spatial or temporal trends as well as of variability in proxy records, most palaeoceanographic studies are (implicitly) based on the assumption of a constant habitat. Up to now, the effect of habitat tracking on foraminifera proxy records has not yet been formally quantified on a global scale. Here we attempt to characterise this effect on the amplitude of environmental change recorded in sedimentary PF using core top δ18O data from six species. We find that the offset from mean annual near-surface δ18O values varies with temperature, with PF δ18O indicating warmer than mean conditions in colder waters (on average by −0.1 ‰ (equivalent to 0.4 °C) per °C), thus providing a first-order quantification of the degree of underestimation due to habitat tracking. We use an empirical model to estimate the contribution of seasonality to the observed difference between PF and annual mean δ18O and use the residual Δδ18O to assess trends in calcification depth. Our analysis indicates that given an observation-based model parametrisation calcification depth increases with temperature in all species and sensitivity analysis suggests that a temperature-related seasonal habitat adjustment is essential to explain the observed isotope signal. Habitat tracking can thus lead to a significant reduction in the amplitude of recorded environmental change. However, we show that this behaviour is predictable. This allows accounting for habitat tracking, enabling more meaningful reconstructions and improved data–model comparison.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilio Guirado ◽  
Domingo Alcaraz-Segura ◽  
Javier Cabello ◽  
Sergio Puertas-Ruíz ◽  
Francisco Herrera ◽  
...  

Accurate tree cover mapping is of paramount importance in many fields, from biodiversity conservation to carbon stock estimation, ecohydrology, erosion control, or Earth system modelling. Despite this importance, there is still uncertainty about global forest cover, particularly in drylands. Recently, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) conducted a costly global assessment of dryland forest cover through the visual interpretation of orthoimages using the Collect Earth software, involving hundreds of operators from around the world. Our study proposes a new automatic method for estimating tree cover using artificial intelligence and free orthoimages. Our results show that our tree cover classification model, based on convolutional neural networks (CNN), is 23% more accurate than the manual visual interpretation used by FAO, reaching up to 79% overall accuracy. The smallest differences between the two methods occurred in the driest regions, but disagreement increased with the percentage of tree cover. The application of CNNs could be used to improve and reduce the cost of tree cover maps from the local to the global scale, with broad implications for research and management.


2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ross N. Cuthbert ◽  
Amanda Callaghan ◽  
Jaimie T. A. Dick

Abstract Invasive species continue to proliferate and detrimentally impact ecosystems on a global scale. Whilst impacts are well-documented for many invaders, we lack tools to predict biotic resistance and invasion success. Biotic resistance from communities may be a particularly important determinant of the success of invaders. The present study develops traditional ecological concepts to better understand and quantify biotic resistance. We quantified predation towards the highly invasive Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus and a representative native mosquito Culex pipiens by three native and widespread cyclopoid copepods, using functional response and prey switching experiments. All copepods demonstrated higher magnitude type II functional responses towards the invasive prey over the analogous native prey, aligned with higher attack and maximum feeding rates. All predators exhibited significant, frequency-independent prey preferences for the invader. With these results, we developed a novel metric for biotic resistance which integrates predator numerical response proxies, revealing differential biotic resistance potential among predators. Our results are consistent with field patterns of biotic resistance and invasion success, illustrating the predictive capacity of our methods. We thus propose the further development of traditional ecological concepts, such as functional responses, numerical responses and prey switching, in the evaluation of biotic resistance and invasion success.


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