scholarly journals Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

2014 ◽  
Vol XL-8 ◽  
pp. 1291-1294
Author(s):  
V. S. Chitale ◽  
H. L. Shrestha ◽  
N. K. Agarwal ◽  
D. Choudhurya ◽  
H. Gilani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Vulnerability Assessment ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Social Dependence

Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

scholarly journals Mediterranean Olive Orchards under Climate Change: A Review of Future Impacts and Adaptation Strategies

Agronomy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Helder Fraga ◽  
Marco Moriondo ◽  
Luisa Leolini ◽  
João A. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Olive Tree ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The olive tree (Olea europaea L.) is an ancient traditional crop in the Mediterranean Basin. In the Mediterranean region, traditional olive orchards are distinguishable by their prevailing climatic conditions. Olive trees are indeed considered one of the most suitable and best-adapted species to the Mediterranean-type climate. However, new challenges are predicted to arise from climate change, threatening this traditional crop. The Mediterranean Basin is considered a climate change “hotspot,” as future projections hint at considerable warming and drying trends. Changes in olive tree suitability have already been reported over the last few decades. In this context, climate change may become particularly challenging for olive growers. The growing evidence for significant climate change in the upcoming decades urges adaptation measures to be taken. To effectively cope with the projected changes, both short and long-term adaptation strategies must be timely planned by the sector stakeholders and decision-makers to adapt for a warmer and dryer future. The current manuscript is devoted to illustrating the main impacts of climate change on olive tree cultivation in the Mediterranean Basin, by reviewing the most recent studies on this subject. Additionally, an analysis of possible adaptation strategies against the potentially negative impacts of climate change was also performed.

scholarly journals Evolution of Burned Area in Forest Fires under Climate Change Conditions in Southern Spain Using ANN

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (19) ◽  
pp. 4155
Author(s):  
Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Díaz-Palmero ◽  
de Dios Cabezas-Cerezo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Southern Spain ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Mediterranean Regions ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Absolute Percent Error

Wildfires in Mediterranean regions have become a serious problem, and it is currently the main cause of forest loss. Numerous prediction methods have been applied worldwide to estimate future fire activity and area burned in order to provide a stable basis for future allocation of fire-fighting resources. The present study investigated the performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) in burned area size prediction and to assess the evolution of future wildfires and the area concerned under climate change in southern Spain. The study area comprised 39.41 km2 of land burned from 2000 to 2014. ANNs were used in two subsequential phases: classifying the size of the wildfires and predicting the burned surface for fires larger than 30,000 m2. Matrix of confusion and 10-fold cross-validations were used to evaluate ANN classification and mean absolute deviation, root mean square error, mean absolute percent error and bias, which were the metrics used for burned area prediction. The success rate achieved was above 60–70% depending on the zone. An average temperature increase of 3 °C and a 20% increase in wind speed during 2071–2100 results in a significant increase of the number of fires, up to triple the current figure, resulting in seven times the average yearly burned surface depending on the zone and the climate change scenario.

Indigenous knowledge and climate change adaptation in Africa: a systematic review.

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (029) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Nyadzi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Indigenous Knowledge ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Urban Migration ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

Abstract Indigenous people are often considered victims of climate change impact rather than agents of adaptation. Emerging studies in Africa have shifted the attention to indigenous knowledge (IK) to support the development of effective climate change adaptation strategies. This study adopted a systematic literature review methodology to analyse the following: (i) characterization of IK, (ii) potential of IK for knowledge co-production, (iii) IK for climate change causes and impact identification, (iv) IK for formulating and implementing climate change interventions, and (v) documentation and conservation of IK as a resource for climate change adaptation. Results show that there is no consensus on the definition of IK. However, certain identical elements in the available definitions are relevant for contextualization. IK has been useful in the formulation of different climate change adaptation strategies: management practices, early warning, and risk and disaster management. IK has the potential for knowledge co-production relevant for developing robust adaptation measures. Weather and climate services remain a critical area where IK and scientific knowledge (SK) are integrated to enhance forecast reliability and acceptability for local communities. IK is disappearing because of modernization and rural-urban migration, changing landscape and shifting religious beliefs. We suggest the need for more research into the complexity of the IK, proper documentation and storage of IK, and developing effective approaches to integrate IK with SK such that it is well received among researchers and policymakers. While doing this, it is important to maintain the unique features that distinguish IK from other forms of knowledge.

scholarly journals Modeling Adaptation Strategies against Climate Change Impacts in Integrated Rice-Wheat Agricultural Production System of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Khalid Anser ◽  
Tayyaba Hina ◽  
Shahzad Hameed ◽  
Muhammad Hamid Nasir ◽  
Ishfaq Ahmad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Production System ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Crop Modeling ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Agricultural Production System

There are numerous anticipated effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in the developing and the developed world. Pakistan is among the top ten most prone nations to CC in the world. The objective of this analysis was to quantify the economic impacts of CC on the agricultural production system and to quantify the impacts of suggested adaptation strategies at the farm level. The study was conducted in the Punjab province’s rice-wheat cropping system. For this purpose, climate modeling was carried out by using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, and five global circulation models (GCMs). The crop modeling was carried out by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop simulation models (CSMs), which were tested on the cross-sectional data of 217 farm households collected from the seven strata in the study area. The socio-economic impacts were calculated using the Multidimensional Impact Assessment Tradeoff Analysis Model (TOA-MD). The results revealed that CC’s net economic impact using both RCPs and CSMs was negative. In both CSMs, the poverty status was higher in RCP 8.5 than in RCP 4.5. The adaptation package showed positive results in poverty reduction and improvement in the livelihood conditions of the agricultural households. The adoption rate for DSSAT was about 78%, and for APSIM, it was about 68%. The adaptation benefits observed in DSSAT were higher than in APSIM. The results showed that the suggested adaptations could have a significant impact on the resilience of the atmospheric changes. Therefore, without these adaptation measures, i.e., increase in sowing density, improved cultivars, increase in nitrogen use, and fertigation, there would be negative impacts of CC that would capitalize on livelihood and food security in the study area.

Potential changes in monthly fire risk in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under future climate change

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 2369-2380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Héloïse Le Goff ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Yves Bergeron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Activity

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management.

scholarly journals Insights on Urban and Periurban Adaptation Strategies Based on Stakeholders’ Perceptions on Hard and Soft Responses to Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Martinez-Juarez ◽  
Aline Chiabai ◽  
Cristina Suárez ◽  
Sonia Quiroga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Common Ground ◽  
Basque Country ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Adapting to expected impacts of climate change is a task shared by multiple institutions and individuals, but much of this work falls over local and regional authorities, which has made them experts over the issue. At the same time, adaptation to climate change has been a research interest in different academic fields; while private companies provide research and development efforts on the issue. Views from perspectives may contain common ground and discrepancies, but benefits from the discussion may differ among these three sectors. This study shows the application of collaborative approaches to analyze impacts and adaptation measures at a local level. A stakeholder workshop was held in the city of Bilbao to discuss impacts of climate change and adaptation in the local context of the Basque Country. The contributions were proposed on three axes: impacts from climate change, good practices proposed or already in action, and costs and benefits derived from those strategies. Participants were asked to rank a series of measures and practices extracted from their previous inputs. These measures were analyzed after applying bootstrapping techniques, according to the perceived costs and benefits assigned to each of the grouped measures and practices. Participants estimated that groups containing green adaptation measures and those that had potentially positive impacts over climate change mitigation were the most efficient measures, as reduced costs combined with high benefits could lead to win–win adaptation strategies, while grey infrastructures were seen as providing high benefits at high costs.

Hot spots - cold spots - what dots? A critical reflection on integrated climate risk assessments – example flood risk in Austria

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Kienberger ◽  
Jutta-Lucia Leis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Physical Vulnerability ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Adaptation Measures

<p>Climate risk, and related impacts, are determined by a variety of natural, climatological and socio-economic factors. In its fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has adapted the concept and terminology in this respect. The challenge is: How can relevant influencing factors be identified and integrated? And, how can these factors be represented spatially and integratively in order to provide decision makers with a sound basis for adaptation measures? The central starting question is: Where do I do what (and when)? Within the Austrian ACRP project 'RESPECT', a novel climate change risk analysis for the natural hazard 'flooding' was developed. Special attention is paid to the modelling of socio-economic and physical vulnerability and its integration into a spatially explicit climate risk analysis. As a result, spatial and thematic hotspots of social and physical vulnerability and climate risk for Austria are identified, which serve as a basis for the identification of adaptation measures.</p><p>As a result, climate risk maps are available for Austria, which show risk and vulnerability hotspots as homogeneous spatial regions, independent from administrative boundaries and traditional raster-based approaches. These hotspots are quantitatively evaluated by an index value as a measure of climate risk. In addition to the purely quantitative evaluation, it is also possible to characterise and present the spatial units qualitatively, in terms of 'problem areas' and contributing factors. This is a significant development compared to 'traditional' spatial units (grid cell based; based on administrative units). Thus the question mentioned at the beginning can be answered - where are which intervention measures necessary. The results are available for socio-economic and physical climate risk, which are flanked by corresponding hazard and vulnerability maps. Results for the present and the future have been produced using proxy indicators from the high-resolution Austrian climate change scenario data (ÖKS15). This makes it possible to identify future hot spots under the assumption of different climate scenarios. The presentations presents the adapted risk concept and methodological approach, respectively, and reflects critically on the opportunities and challenges of climate risk analysis in Austria and in general for the planning of climate change adaptation measures.  </p>

scholarly journals The Impacts of Climate Change on Nigerian Ecosystems: A Review

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-291
Author(s):  
B. E. Ikumbur ◽  
S. Iornumbe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Climatic Variations ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
The World ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Climate change is the single biggest environmental issue facing the world today. It has become a great challenge to our generation and its impact is felt in almost every society in the world. Nigeria is one of the most vulnerable countries in Africa. Nigeria as a developing nation with a population of about 200 million people is likely to be adversely impacted by climate change due to its vulnerability and low coping capabilities. Climate change is evidently linked to human actions, and in particular from the burning of fossil fuels and changes in global patterns of land use. The impacts of human activities, as well as those of natural phenomena on global warming, climate change, and the environment, were presented and discussed. Various manifestations of its impact are evident in Nigeria, which includes temperature rise, increase in draught, and scarcity of food instigated by irregularities in rainfall, over flooding, and so on. This paper examines the concepts of global warming and climate change; its impact on the Nigeria ecosystems. It highlights the climate change-related risks and hazards the nation could face if best practices are not employed to prevent and mitigate its impact. Two sets of measures have been advocated for confronting climate change, these are mitigation and adaptation measures. The review explores possible adaptation strategies that are required to respond to the climatic variations and suggests ways that these adaptation strategies can be implemented.

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