A hydrometeorological model intercomparison as a tool to quantify the forecast uncertainty in a medium size basin

Abstract. In the framework of AMPHORE, an INTERREG III B EU project devoted to the hydrometeorological modeling study of heavy precipitation episodes resulting in flood events and the improvement of the operational hydrometeorological forecasts for the prediction and prevention of flood risks in the Western Mediterranean area, a hydrometeorological model intercomparison has been carried out, in order to estimate the uncertainties associated with the discharge predictions. The analysis is performed for an intense precipitation event selected as a case study within the project, which affected northern Italy and caused a flood event in the upper Reno river basin, a medium size catchment in the Emilia-Romagna Region. Two different hydrological models have been implemented over the basin: HEC-HMS and TOPKAPI which are driven in two ways. Firstly, stream-flow simulations obtained by using precipitation observations as input data are evaluated, in order to be aware of the performance of the two hydrological models. Secondly, the rainfall-runoff models have been forced with rainfall forecast fields provided by mesoscale atmospheric model simulations in order to evaluate the reliability of the discharge forecasts resulting by the one-way coupling. The quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are provided by the numerical mesoscale models COSMO and MM5. Furthermore, different configurations of COSMO and MM5 have been adopted, trying to improve the description of the phenomena determining the precipitation amounts. In particular, the impacts of using different initial and boundary conditions, different mesoscale models and of increasing the horizontal model resolutions are investigated. The accuracy of QPFs is assessed in a threefold procedure. First, these are checked against the observed spatial rainfall accumulations over northern Italy. Second, the spatial and temporal simulated distributions are also examined over the catchment of interest. And finally, the discharge simulations resulting from the one-way coupling with HEC-HMS and TOPKAPI are evaluated against the rain-gauge driven simulated flows, thus employing the hydrological models as a validation tool. The different scenarios of the simulated river flows – provided by an independent implementation of the two hydrological models each one forced with both COSMO and MM5 – enable a quantification of the uncertainties of the precipitation outputs, and therefore, of the discharge simulations. Results permit to highlight some hydrological and meteorological modeling factors which could help to enhance the hydrometeorological modeling of such hazardous events. Main conclusions are: (1) deficiencies in precipitation forecasts have a major impact on flood forecasts; (2) large-scale shift errors in precipitation patterns are not improved by only enhancing the mesoscale model resolution; and (3) weak differences in flood forecasting performance are found by using either a distributed continuous or a semi-distributed event-based hydrological model for this catchment.

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Parametrizing wind farms in mesoscale models: review of existing approaches, applications and future advancements

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11009 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jana Fischereit ◽

Roy Brown ◽

Xiaoli Guo Larsén ◽

Jake Badger ◽

Graham Hawkes

Keyword(s):

Environmental Impact ◽

Wind Energy ◽

Large Scale ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Mesoscale Model ◽

Scale Effects ◽

Wind Farms ◽

Development Stage ◽

Mesoscale Models ◽

Flow Effects

With the expansion of wind energy on- and offshore, large-scale wind farm flow effects in a temporal and spatially heterogeneous atmosphere become increasingly relevant. Mesoscale models equipped with a Wind Farm Parametrization (WFP) can be used to study these effects. In the past, different WFPs have been developed and were applied with different aims. The aim of this study is to provide a better overview on existing WFPs, their development stage and application areas.&#160;Through a systematic literature review based approach, 617 potentially relevant publications were identified, out of which 59 were reviewed in detail. From these studies, 10 different explicit WFPs have been identified along with three main application areas: (1) the characterizations of wind farm flow effects, (2) the environmental impact of wind farms and (3) the implication for wind energy planning.In this presentation, we will review differences between the identified WFPs including their description of the turbine-induced forces and turbulent kinetic energy production as well as their treatment of sub-grid scale effects. In addition, we will summarize the literature findings on existing validation of the WFPs and on the sensitivity of the WFPs to the mesoscale model set-up. Reviewing the results for the different application areas indicated that wind farm wakes can last for several 10s of kilometers downstream depending on stability, surface roughness and terrain. Therefore, neighbouring wind farms need to be taken into account for regional planning of wind energy. Yet, their environmental impact, in terms of other reviewed parameters than wind, is mostly confined to areas close to the farm.Based on these findings, we suggest that future work should include, among other things, benchmark-type validation studies with long-term measurements for different WFPs, further developments of WFPs and mesoscale model physics and more interactions between the mesoscale and microscale community.

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Review of Mesoscale Wind-Farm Parametrizations and Their Applications

Boundary-Layer Meteorology ◽

10.1007/s10546-021-00652-y ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jana Fischereit ◽

Roy Brown ◽

Xiaoli Guo Larsén ◽

Jake Badger ◽

Graham Hawkes

Keyword(s):

Environmental Impact ◽

Wind Energy ◽

Large Scale ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Mesoscale Model ◽

Wind Farms ◽

Mesoscale Models ◽

Flow Effects ◽

Set Up ◽

Future Work

AbstractWith the ongoing expansion of wind energy onshore and offshore, large-scale wind-farm-flow effects in a temporally- and spatially-heterogeneous atmosphere become increasingly relevant. Mesoscale models equipped with a wind-farm parametrization (WFP) can be used to study these effects. Here, we conduct a systematic literature review on the existing WFPs for mesoscale models, their applications and findings. In total, 10 different explicit WFPs have been identified. They differ in their description of the turbine-induced forces, and turbulence-kinetic-energy production. The WFPs have been validated for different target parameters through measurements and large-eddy simulations. The performance of the WFP depends considerably on the ability of the mesoscale model to simulate the background meteorological conditions correctly as well as on the model set-up. The different WFPs have been applied to both onshore and offshore environments around the world. Here, we summarize their findings regarding (1) the characterizations of wind-farm-flow effects, (2) the environmental impact of wind farms, and (3) the implication for wind-energy planning. Since wind-farm wakes can last for several tens of kilometres downstream depending on stability, surface roughness and terrain, neighbouring wind farms need to be taken into account for regional planning of wind energy. Their environmental impact is mostly confined to areas close to the farm. The review suggests future work should include benchmark-type validation studies with long-term measurements, further developments of mesoscale model physics and WFPs, and more interactions between the mesoscale and microscale community.

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The 13–14 December 2001 IMPROVE-2 Event. Part I: Synoptic and Mesoscale Evolution and Comparison with a Mesoscale Model Simulation

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1175/jas3549.1 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 62 (10) ◽

pp. 3474-3492 ◽

Cited By ~ 49

Author(s):

Matthew F. Garvert ◽

Brian A. Colle ◽

Clifford F. Mass

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Mesoscale Model ◽

Model Simulation ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Middle Level ◽

Model Verification ◽

Precipitation Event ◽

Low Level ◽

Baroclinic Zone

Abstract This paper describes the large-scale synoptic and mesoscale features of a major precipitation event that affected the second Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE-2) study area on 13–14 December 2001. The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to simulate both the synoptic and mesoscale features of the storm. Extensive model verification was performed utilizing the wealth of observational assets available during the experiment, including in situ aircraft measurements, radiosondes, radar data, and surface observations. The 13–14 December 2001 storm system was characterized by strong low-level cross-barrier flow, heavy precipitation, and the passage of an intense baroclinic zone. The model realistically simulated the three-dimensional thermodynamic and kinematic fields, the forward-tilted vertical structure of the baroclinic zone, and the associated major precipitation band. Deficiencies in the model simulations included an attenuated low-level jet accompanying the middle-level baroclinic zone and the lack of precipitation associated with the surface front; NOAA P-3 aircraft in situ data indicated that the model required 1.33-km grid spacing to capture realistically the complex mesoscale forcing related to terrain features. Despite the relatively skillful portrayal of mesoscale and synoptic structures, the model overpredicted precipitation in localized areas on the windward slopes and over a broad area to the lee of the Oregon Cascades.

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First grammar books in the Habsburg Monarchy: individual initiative and regulatory interference by the state (1760s–1770s)

A day in the calendar. Celebrations and memorial days as an instrument of national consolidation in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe from the nineteenth to the twenty-first century - Central-European Studies ◽

10.31168/2619-0877.2019.2.6 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2019 (2 (11)) ◽

pp. 137-157

Author(s):

Olga V. Khavanova ◽

Keyword(s):

Eighteenth Century ◽

State Policy ◽

Large Scale ◽

Language Use ◽

Linguistic Diversity ◽

Mother Tongue ◽

German Language ◽

Habsburg Monarchy ◽

Private Initiative ◽

The One

The second half of the eighteenth century in the lands under the sceptre of the House of Austria was a period of development of a language policy addressing the ethno-linguistic diversity of the monarchy’s subjects. On the one hand, the sphere of use of the German language was becoming wider, embracing more and more segments of administration, education, and culture. On the other hand, the authorities were perfectly aware of the fact that communication in the languages and vernaculars of the nationalities living in the Austrian Monarchy was one of the principal instruments of spreading decrees and announcements from the central and local authorities to the less-educated strata of the population. Consequently, a large-scale reform of primary education was launched, aimed at making the whole population literate, regardless of social status, nationality (mother tongue), or confession. In parallel with the centrally coordinated state policy of education and language-use, subjects-both language experts and amateur polyglots-joined the process of writing grammar books, which were intended to ease communication between the different nationalities of the Habsburg lands. This article considers some examples of such editions with primary attention given to the correlation between private initiative and governmental policies, mechanisms of verifying the textbooks to be published, their content, and their potential readers. This paper demonstrates that for grammar-book authors, it was very important to be integrated into the patronage networks at the court and in administrative bodies and stresses that the Vienna court controlled the process of selection and financing of grammar books to be published depending on their quality and ability to satisfy the aims and goals of state policy.

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The Green New Deal

10.31228/osf.io/zakfb ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Robert C. Hockett

Keyword(s):

New Deal ◽

Large Scale ◽

Public Investment ◽

Climate Science ◽

Time Frame ◽

White Paper ◽

Good News ◽

Carbon Neutrality ◽

The One ◽

In Virtue Of

This white paper lays out the guiding vision behind the Green New Deal Resolution proposed to the U.S. Congress by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bill Markey in February of 2019. It explains the senses in which the Green New Deal is 'green' on the one hand, and a new 'New Deal' on the other hand. It also 'makes the case' for a shamelessly ambitious, not a low-ball or slow-walked, Green New Deal agenda. At the core of the paper's argument lies the observation that only a true national mobilization on the scale of those associated with the original New Deal and the Second World War will be up to the task of comprehensively revitalizing the nation's economy, justly growing our middle class, and expeditiously achieving carbon-neutrality within the twelve-year time-frame that climate science tells us we have before reaching an environmental 'tipping point.' But this is actually good news, the paper argues. For, paradoxically, an ambitious Green New Deal also will be the most 'affordable' Green New Deal, in virtue of the enormous productivity, widespread prosperity, and attendant public revenue benefits that large-scale public investment will bring. In effect, the Green New Deal will amount to that very transformative stimulus which the nation has awaited since the crash of 2008 and its debt-deflationary sequel.

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“Community Interests” and the Role of International Law in the Creation of a Global Market for Agricultural Land

10.1093/oso/9780198825210.003.0015 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Jochen von Bernstorff

Keyword(s):

International Law ◽

Large Scale ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Food Sovereignty ◽

Global Market ◽

Negative Consequences ◽

Cultural Rights ◽

Land Grab ◽

Large Scale Land ◽

The One

The chapter explores the notion of “community interests” with regard to the global “land-grab” phenomenon. Over the last decade, a dramatic increase of foreign investment in agricultural land could be observed. Bilateral investment treaties protect around 75 per cent of these large-scale land acquisitions, many of which came with associated social problems, such as displaced local populations and negative consequences for food security in Third World countries receiving these large-scale foreign investments. Hence, two potentially conflicting areas of international law are relevant in this context: Economic, social, and cultural rights and the principles of permanent sovereignty over natural resources and “food sovereignty” challenging large-scale investments on the one hand, and specific norms of international economic law stabilizing them on the other. The contribution discusses the usefulness of the concept of “community interests” in cases where the two colliding sets of norms are both considered to protect such interests.

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State Management for Cloud-Native Applications

Electronics ◽

10.3390/electronics10040423 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 423

Author(s):

Márk Szalay ◽

Péter Mátray ◽

László Toka

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Distributed Databases ◽

Access Time ◽

Replica Placement ◽

State Management ◽

Placement Decisions ◽

Dynamic Replication ◽

Cloud Databases ◽

Placement Algorithm ◽

The One

The stateless cloud-native design improves the elasticity and reliability of applications running in the cloud. The design decouples the life-cycle of application states from that of application instances; states are written to and read from cloud databases, and deployed close to the application code to ensure low latency bounds on state access. However, the scalability of applications brings the well-known limitations of distributed databases, in which the states are stored. In this paper, we propose a full-fledged state layer that supports the stateless cloud application design. In order to minimize the inter-host communication due to state externalization, we propose, on the one hand, a system design jointly with a data placement algorithm that places functions’ states across the hosts of a data center. On the other hand, we design a dynamic replication module that decides the proper number of copies for each state to ensure a sweet spot in short state-access time and low network traffic. We evaluate the proposed methods across realistic scenarios. We show that our solution yields state-access delays close to the optimal, and ensures fast replica placement decisions in large-scale settings.

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Are Climate Factors Driving the Contemporary Wildfire Occurrence in China?

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12040392 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 392

Author(s):

Zige Lan ◽

Zhangwen Su ◽

Meng Guo ◽

Ernesto C. Alvarado ◽

Futao Guo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Human Factors ◽

Large Scale ◽

Fire Occurrence ◽

Climate Factors ◽

Wildfire Occurrence ◽

Prediction And Prevention ◽

Data Resolution ◽

Main Driver ◽

Landscape Factors ◽

Modelling Approach

Understanding the drivers of wildfire occurrence is of great value for fire prevention and management, but due to the variation in research methods, data sources, and data resolution of those studies, it is challenging to conduct a large-scale comprehensive comparative qualitative analysis on the topic. China has diverse vegetation types and topography, and has undergone rapid economic and social development, but experiences a high frequency of wildfires, making it one of the ideal locations for wildfire research. We applied the Random Forests modelling approach to explore the main types of wildfire drivers (climate factors, landscape factors and human factors) in three high wildfire density regions (Northeast (NE), Southwest (SW), and Southeast (SE)) of China. The results indicate that climate factors were the main driver of wildfire occurrence in the three regions. Precipitation and temperature significantly impacted the fire occurrence in the three regions due to the direct influence on the moisture content of forest fuel. However, wind speed had important influence on fire occurrence in the SE and SW. The explanation power of the landscape and human factors varied significantly between regions. Human factors explained 40% of the fire occurrence in the SE but only explained less than 10% of the fire occurrence in the NE and SW. The density of roads was identified as the most important human factor driving fires in all three regions, but railway density had more explanation power on fire occurrence in the SE than in the other regions. The landscape factors showed nearly no influence on fire occurrence in the NE but explained 46.4% and 20.6% in the SE and SW regions, respectively. Amongst landscape factors, elevation had the highest average explanation power on fire occurrence in the three regions, particularly in the SW. In conclusion, this study provides useful insights into targeted fire prediction and prevention, which should be more precise and effective under climate change and socio-economic development.

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Constructing Large-Scale Genetic Maps Using an Evolutionary Strategy Algorithm

Genetics ◽

10.1093/genetics/165.4.2269 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 165 (4) ◽

pp. 2269-2282

Author(s):

D Mester ◽

Y Ronin ◽

D Minkov ◽

E Nevo ◽

A Korol

Keyword(s):

Discrete Optimization ◽

High Performance ◽

Large Scale ◽

Simulated Data ◽

Real Data ◽

Genetic Maps ◽

Chromosome 1 ◽

Evolutionary Strategy ◽

Group A ◽

The One

Abstract This article is devoted to the problem of ordering in linkage groups with many dozens or even hundreds of markers. The ordering problem belongs to the field of discrete optimization on a set of all possible orders, amounting to n!/2 for n loci; hence it is considered an NP-hard problem. Several authors attempted to employ the methods developed in the well-known traveling salesman problem (TSP) for multilocus ordering, using the assumption that for a set of linked loci the true order will be the one that minimizes the total length of the linkage group. A novel, fast, and reliable algorithm developed for the TSP and based on evolution-strategy discrete optimization was applied in this study for multilocus ordering on the basis of pairwise recombination frequencies. The quality of derived maps under various complications (dominant vs. codominant markers, marker misclassification, negative and positive interference, and missing data) was analyzed using simulated data with ∼50-400 markers. High performance of the employed algorithm allows systematic treatment of the problem of verification of the obtained multilocus orders on the basis of computing-intensive bootstrap and/or jackknife approaches for detecting and removing questionable marker scores, thereby stabilizing the resulting maps. Parallel calculation technology can easily be adopted for further acceleration of the proposed algorithm. Real data analysis (on maize chromosome 1 with 230 markers) is provided to illustrate the proposed methodology.

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Global Reaction Model to Describe the Kinetics of Catalytic Pyrolysis of Coffee Grounds Waste

Materials Science Forum ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/msf.899.173 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 899 ◽

pp. 173-178 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ronydes Batista Jr. ◽

Bruna Sene Alves Araújo ◽

Pedro Ivo Brandão e Melo Franco ◽

Beatriz Cristina Silvério ◽

Sandra Cristina Danta ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Thermal Decomposition ◽

Large Scale ◽

Catalytic Pyrolysis ◽

Petroleum Products ◽

Reaction Model ◽

Heating Rates ◽

Coffee Grounds ◽

One Step ◽

Global Reaction ◽

The One

In view of the constant search for new sources of renewable energy, the particulate agro-industrial waste reuse emerges as an advantageous alternative. However, despite the advantages of using the biomass as an energy source, there is still strong resistance as the large-scale replacement of petroleum products due to the lack of scientifically proven efficient conversion technologies. In this context, the pyrolysis is presented as one of the most widely used thermal decomposition processes. The knowledge of aspects of chemical kinetics, thermodynamics these will, heat and mass transfer, are so important, since influence the quality of the product. This paper presents a kinetic study of slow pyrolysis of coffee grounds waste from dynamic thermogravimetric experiments (TG), using different powder catalysts. The primary thermal decomposition was described by the one-step reaction model, which considers a single global reaction. The kinetic parameters were estimated using nonlinear regression and the differential evolution method. The coffee ground waste was dried at 105°C for 24 hours. The sample in nature was analyzed at different heating rates, being 10, 15, 20, 30 and 50 K/min. In the catalytic pyrolysis, about 5% (w/w) of catalyst were added to the sample, at a heating rate of 30 K/min. The results show that the one-step model does not accurately represent the data of weight loss (TG) and its derivative (DTG), but can do an estimative of the activation energy reaction, and can show the differences caused by the catalysts. Although no one can say anything about the products formed with the addition of the catalyst, it would be necessary to micro-pyrolysis analysis, we can say the influence of the catalyst in the samples, based on the data obtained in thermogravimetric tests.

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