scholarly journals On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1889-1905
Author(s):  
Gerard H. Roe ◽  
John Erich Christian ◽  
Ben Marzeion
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Slow Cooling ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
Total Mass Loss ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. Around the world, small ice caps and glaciers have been losing mass and retreating since the start of the industrial era. Estimates are that this has contributed approximately 30 % of the observed sea-level rise over the same period. It is important to understand the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic components of this mass loss. One recent study concluded that the best estimate of the magnitude of the anthropogenic mass loss over the industrial era was only 25 % of the total, implying a predominantly natural cause. Here we show that the anthropogenic fraction of the total mass loss of a given glacier depends only on the magnitudes and rates of the natural and anthropogenic components of climate change and on the glacier's response time. We consider climate change over the past millennium using synthetic scenarios, palaeoclimate reconstructions, numerical climate simulations, and instrumental observations. We use these climate histories to drive a glacier model that can represent a wide range of glacier response times, and we evaluate the magnitude of the anthropogenic mass loss relative to the observed mass loss. The slow cooling over the preceding millennium followed by the rapid anthropogenic warming of the industrial era means that, over the full range of response times for small ice caps and glaciers, the central estimate of the magnitude of the anthropogenic mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed mass loss. The anthropogenic magnitude may exceed 100 % in the event that, without anthropogenic climate forcing, glaciers would otherwise have been gaining mass. Our results bring assessments of the attribution of glacier mass loss into alignment with assessments of others aspects of climate change, such as global-mean temperature. Furthermore, these results reinforce the scientific and public understanding of centennial-scale glacier retreat as an unambiguous consequence of human activity.

scholarly journals On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerard H. Roe ◽  
John Erich Christian ◽  
Ben Marzeion
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Slow Cooling ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
Total Mass Loss ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Anthropogenic Contribution

Abstract. Around the world, small ice caps and glaciers have been losing mass and retreating during the industrial era. Estimates are that this has contributed approximately 30 % of the observed sea-level rise over the same period. It is important to understand the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic components of this mass loss. One recent study concluded that the best estimate of the anthropogenic contribution over the industrial era was only 25 %, implying a predominantly natural cause. Here we show that the fraction of the anthropogenic contribution to the total mass loss of a given glacier depends only on the magnitudes and rates of the natural and anthropogenic components of climate change, and on the glacier's response time. We consider climate change over the past millennium using synthetic scenarios, paleoclimate reconstructions, numerical climate simulations, and instrumental observations. We use these climate histories to drive a glacier model that can represent a wide range of glacier response times to evaluate the anthropogenic contribution to glacier mass loss. The slow cooling over the preceding millennium, followed by the rapid anthropogenic warming of the industrial era means that, over the full range of response times for small ice caps and glaciers, the central estimate of the anthropogenic component of the mass loss is essentially 100 %. Our results bring assessments of attribution of glacier mass loss into alignment with assessments of others aspects of climate change, such as global-mean temperature. Furthermore, these results reinforce the scientific and public understanding of centennial-scale glacier retreat as an unambiguous consequence of human activity.

scholarly journals A Conceptual Tool for Climate Change Risk Assessment

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. T. Higgins ◽  
Jonah V. Steinbuck
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Institutions ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Conceptual Tool ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Economic Analyses

Abstract This study develops a new conceptual tool to explore the potential societal consequences of climate change. The conceptual tool delineates three quasi-independent factors that contribute to the societal consequences of climate change: how climate changes; the sensitivity of physical systems, biological resources, and social institutions to climate change; and the degree of human dependence on those systems, resources, and institutions. This conceptual tool, as currently developed, is not predictive, but it enables the exploration of the dependence of climate change risks on key contributing factors. In exploring a range of plausible behaviors for these factors and methods for their synthesis, the authors show that plausible assumptions lead to a wide range in potential societal consequences of climate change. This illustrates that the societal consequences of climate change are currently difficult to constrain and that high-consequence climate change outcomes are not necessarily low probability, as suggested by leading economic analyses. With careful implementation, this new conceptual tool has potential to increase public understanding of climate change risks, to support risk management decision making, or to facilitate communication of climate risks across disciplinary boundaries.

15. Climate change, ozone depletion, and air quality

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart Bell ◽  
Donald McGillivray ◽  
Ole W. Pedersen ◽  
Emma Lees ◽  
Elen Stokes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Industrial Process ◽  
International Response ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Legal Controls ◽  
Toxic Fumes

This chapter deals with legal controls to address global climate change, ozone depletion, and air quality, the complexity of which problems means that many different types of approaches are necessary across a wide range of activities. This can be a little daunting at first because many issues overlap. In each of these areas, there are laws at international, European, and national levels that need to be considered. It makes sense, however, to first consider some general issues and also the international response to various forms of air and atmospheric pollution. The range of problems affecting the atmosphere stretches across the full range of human activities, from highly toxic fumes emitted from a complicated industrial process, to such seemingly mundane activities as lighting a fire, driving a car, or using spray-on deodorant. Air pollutants come in many forms, and the main ones will be discussed in the chapter.

scholarly journals Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 2761-2800 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Marzeion ◽  
A. H. Jarosch ◽  
J. M. Gregory
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Large Degree ◽  
Complete Disappearance ◽  
Global Mean Temperature

Abstract. Mass loss by glaciers has been an important contributor to sea level rise in the past and is projected to contribute a substantial fraction of total sea level rise during the 21st century. Here, we use a model of the world's glaciers in order to quantify equilibrium sensitivities of global glacier mass to climate change, and to investigate the role of changes in glacier hypsometry for long term mass changes. We find that 21st century glacier mass loss to a~large degree is governed by the glaciers responding to 20th century climate change. This limits the influence of 21st century climate change on glacier mass loss, and explains why there are relatively small differences in glacier mass loss under greatly different scenarios of climate change. Because of the geographic distribution of glaciers, both temperature and precipitation anomalies experienced by glaciers are vastly stronger than on global average. The projected increase in precipitation partly compensates for the mass loss caused by warming, but this compensation is negligible at higher temperature anomalies since an increasing fraction of precipitation at the glacier sites it liquid. Loss of low-lying glacier area, and more importantly, eventual complete disappearance of glaciers, strongly limit the projected sea level contribution from glaciers in coming centuries. The adjustment of glacier hypsometry to changes in the forcing reduces the sensitivity of global glacier mass to changes in global mean temperature by a factor of two to three. This result is a second reason for the relatively weak dependence of glacier mass loss on future climate scenario, and helps explain why glacier mass loss in the first half of the 20th century was of the same order of magnitude as in the second half of the 20th century, even though the rate of warming was considerably smaller.

scholarly journals Glacier Variations at Xinqingfeng and Malan Ice Caps in the Inner Tibetan Plateau Since 1970

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 421
Author(s):  
Zhen Zhang ◽  
Shiyin Liu ◽  
Zongli Jiang ◽  
Donghui Shangguan ◽  
Junfeng Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Loss Rate ◽  
Mass Loss Rate ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Srtm Dem ◽  
The West ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
Total Mass Loss ◽  
Observation Period

The inner Tibetan Plateau is a glacierized region where glaciers show heterogeneous change. The Xinqingfeng and Malan ice caps are located in this region, and a transition zone exists with shifting influences between the westerlies and Indian summer monsoon. However, there is a lack of detailed information regarding glacier area and mass changes in this region before 2000. In the present study, we describe an integrated view of the glacier area and its mass changes for Mt. Xinqingfeng and Mt. Malan as derived from topographic maps, Landsat, ASTER, SRTM DEM, and TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X from 1970 to 2012 and from 1970 to 2018, respectively. Our results show that the glaciers experienced a slight shrinkage in area by 0.09 ± 0.03% a−1 from 1970 to 2018 with a median mass loss rate of 0.22 ± 0.17 m w.e. a−1 and 0.29 ± 0.17 m w.e. a−1 between 1999 and 2012 at Mt. Xinqingfeng and Mt. Malan, respectively. The glaciers of Mt. Malan had a total mass loss of 0.19 ± 0.14 m w.e. a−1 during the period 1970–1999. A minimum of seven glaciers at Mt. Xinqingfeng and Mt. Malan showed heterogeneous variations with either surging or advancing during the observation period. Among them, the West Monuomaha Glacier, Monuomaha Glacier, and Zu Glacier were identified as surging glaciers, and the others may also be surging glaciers, although more evidence is required. These glaciers showed a long active period and low velocities. Therefore, we suggested that thermal controls are important for surge initiation and recession.

scholarly journals Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Marzeion ◽  
A. H. Jarosch ◽  
J. M. Gregory
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Complete Disappearance ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. Mass loss by glaciers has been an important contributor to sea level rise in the past, and is projected to contribute a substantial fraction of total sea level rise during the 21st century. Here, we use a model of the world's glaciers to quantify equilibrium sensitivities of global glacier mass to climate change, and to investigate the role of changes in glacier hypsometry for long-term mass changes. We find that 21st century glacier-mass loss is largely governed by the glacier's response to 20th century climate change. This limits the influence of 21st century climate change on glacier-mass loss, and explains why there are relatively small differences in glacier-mass loss under greatly different scenarios of climate change. The projected future changes in both temperature and precipitation experienced by glaciers are amplified relative to the global average. The projected increase in precipitation partly compensates for the mass loss caused by warming, but this compensation is negligible at higher temperature anomalies since an increasing fraction of precipitation at the glacier sites is liquid. Loss of low-lying glacier area, and more importantly, eventual complete disappearance of glaciers, strongly limit the projected sea level contribution from glaciers in coming centuries. The adjustment of glacier hypsometry to changes in the forcing strongly reduces the rates of global glacier-mass loss caused by changes in global mean temperature compared to rates of mass loss when hypsometric changes are neglected. This result is a second reason for the relatively weak dependence of glacier-mass loss on future climate scenario, and helps explain why glacier-mass loss in the first half of the 20th century was of the same order of magnitude as in the second half of the 20th century, even though the rate of warming was considerably smaller.

scholarly journals Glacier changes and surges over Xinqingfeng and Malan Ice Caps in the inner Tibetan Plateau since 1970 derived from Remote Sensing Data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Zhang ◽  
Shiyin Liu ◽  
Zongli Jiang ◽  
Donghui Shangguan ◽  
Junfeng Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Accumulation Rate ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Mean Velocity ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
Total Mass Loss ◽  
Year 2000

Abstract. The inner Tibetan Plateau region is a glacierised area with heterogeneous variations. However, the detailed glacier area and mass changes in this region prior to the year 2000 are scarce, and there are limited processes available to understand this heterogeneity. In this paper, we present an integrated view of the glacier area and its mass changes for Mt. Xinqingfeng and Mt. Malan of the inner Tibetan Plateau as derived from topographic maps, Landsat, ASTER, SRTM DEM, and TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X for the period of 1970–2012 and 1970–2018, respectively. Our results show that the glaciers experienced weak shrinkage in area by 0.09 ± 0.03 % from 1970 to 2018, but there was a median mass loss at a rate of 0.22 ± 0.17 m w.e. a−1 and 0.29 ± 0.17 m w.e. a−1 during 1999–2012 in Mt. Xinqingfeng and Mt. Malan respectively. The glaciers of Mt. Malan have had a lower total mass loss of 0.19 ± 0.14 m w.e. a−1 during 1970–1999. The mean velocity of the glaciers during 2013–2018 was 0.16 m d−1, as demonstrated from the Global Land Ice Velocity Extraction from Landsat 8 (GoLIVE). The Monuomaha Glacier and Zu Glacier together with another 5 glaciers displayed the surging or advancing characteristics during the observation period. These glaciers showed have a long active period of time and comparatively low velocities, which suggests that thermal controls are important for the surge initiation and recession. The ablation area or accumulation area exhibited small slopes with velocities that were too slow to remain in balance with the accumulation rate; thus, they required surging to transport mass from the reservoir area down the glacier tongue.

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

Urban Population Knowledge of Climate Change in Costa Rica and Nicaragua

2013 ◽  
pp. 55-76
Author(s):  
Sergio A. Molina Murillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
International Policies ◽  
General Concern

Most scenarios indicate that people in developing countries are more vulnerable and less capable of adapting to climate change. Since our public understanding of risk toward climate change in developing countries is limited, this article presents results from Costa Rica and Nicaragua, two countries which are socio-economically distinct, but which are expected to suffer similar extreme weather events. From October of 2008 until May 2010, a total of 1,047 respondents were surveyed in cities of both countries. The main results indicate that climate change is a widely known concept but other notions such as “carbon footprint” are foreign to most respondents. Despite the general concern with its negative consequences, respondents’ foremost concern is linked to their socioeconomic situation, and how it will be impacted by climate change in such aspects as poverty and social security. The results presented here contribute to advance national and international policies aiming to support mitigation or adaptation strategies in developing countries.

Fullerene-like Nanoparticles of WS2 as a Promising Protection from Erosive Wear of Gun Bore Nozzles

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narimane Rezgui ◽  
Danica Simić ◽  
Choayb Boulahbal ◽  
Dejan Micković
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Solid Lubricant ◽  
Erosive Wear ◽  
Mechanical Resistance ◽  
Protective Function ◽  
Protective Layers ◽  
Total Mass Loss ◽  
Mass Losses ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Tube Life

Background: Erosive wear causes increase in the bore diameter of firearms barrels and nozzles. Most responsible factors for this erosion are friction and heat generated during the shot. Protection from erosive wear is very important for gun tube life cycle, and various protection methods are used: adding phlegmatizers in gunpowder composition or applying protective layers on the gun bore inner surface. Objective: In this research, a possibility is examined to protect the surface of a nozzle exposed to gunpowder erosion applying a layer of tungsten disulfide fullerene-like nanoparticles, IF-WS2, known as outstanding solid lubricant of a great mechanical resistance. Methods: Nanoparticles on the nozzle surface before and after the gunfire tests were observed using scanning electron microscopy/energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Gunfire tests were performed on designed erosion device. Temperatures in the defined position near the affected surface were measured with thermocouples and compared for the nozzles with and without nanoprotection, as well as the nozzle mass loss after each round. Results: For the sample with IF-WS2 lower temperatures after firing and lower mass losses were observed. Mass loss after first round was 25.6% lower for the sample with protective nanoparticles layer, and the total mass loss was about 5% lower after five rounds. After the first round the nozzle without IF-WS2 was heated up to a temperature which was for 150.8°C higher than the nozzle with IF-WS2. Conclusion: Protective function of IF-WS2 is the most pronounced for the first round. The observed results encourage its further application in firearms gun bores protection.

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