How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on
future snow cover in the Alps
Abstract. This study focuses on an assessment of the future snow depth for two larger Alpine catchments. Automatic weather station data from two diverse regions in the Swiss Alps have been used as input for the Alpine3D surface process model to compute the snow cover at 200 m horizontal resolution for the reference period (1999–2012). Future temperature and precipitation change have been computed from 20 downscaled GCM-RCM chains for three different emission scenarios, including one intervention scenario (2° C target) and for three future time periods (2020–2049, 2045–2074, 2070–2099). By applying simple daily change values to measured time series of temperature and precipitation series small-scale climate scenarios have been calculated for the ensemble mean and extreme changes. The projections reveal a decrease in snow depth for all elevations, time periods and emission scenarios. The non-interventions scenarios demonstrate a decrease of about 50 % even for the elevations above 3000 m. The most affected elevation zone for climate change is located below 1200 m, where the simulations show almost no snow towards the end of the century. Depending on the emission scenario and elevation zone the winter season starts half a month to one month later and ends one to three month earlier in this last scenario period. The resultant snow cover changes may roughly be equivalent to an elevation shift of 500–800 m or 700–1000 m for the two non-intervention emissions scenario. At the end of the century the number of snow days may be more than halved at an elevation of around 1500 m and is predicted to only 0–2 snow days in the lowlands. The results for the intervention scenario reveal no differences for the first scenario period, but clearly demonstrate much lower snow cover reductions towards the end of the century (ca. 30 % instead of 70 %).