ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBALIZATION LEVEL OF THE COUNTRY ON THE MAIN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Ershova
Keyword(s):  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The Random Forest Method in Research of Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators of Regional Development on Informal Employment Rate

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 37-55
Author(s):  
E. V. Zarova ◽  
E. I. Dubravskaya
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Informal Employment ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Random Forest Method ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

The topic of quantitative research on informal employment has a consistently high relevance both in the Russian Federation and in other countries due to its high dependence on cyclicality and crisis stages in economic dynamics of countries with any level of economic development. Developing effective government policy measures to overcome the negative impact of informal employment requires special attention in theoretical and applied research to assessing the factors and conditions of informal employment in the Russian Federation including at the regional level. Such effects of informal employment as a shortfall in taxes, potential losses in production efficiency, and negative social consequences are a concern for the authorities of the federal and regional levels. Development of quantitative indicators to determine the level of informal employment in the regions, taking into account their specifics in the general spatial and economic system of Russia are necessary to overcome these negative effects. The article proposes and tests methods for solving the problem of assessing the impact of hierarchical relationships on macroeconomic factors at the regional level of informal employment in constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Majority of the works on the study of informal employment are based on basic statistical methods of spatial-dynamic analysis, as well as on the now «traditional» methods of cluster and correlation-regression analysis. Without diminishing the merits of these methods, it should be noted that they are somewhat limited in identifying hidden structural connections and interdependencies in such a complex multidimensional phenomenon as informal employment. In order to substantiate the possibility of overcoming these limitations, the article proposes indicators of regional statistics that directly and indirectly characterize informal employment and also presents the possibilities of using the «random forest» method to identify groups of constituent entities of the Russian Federation that have similar macroeconomic factors of informal employment. The novelty of this method in terms of research objectives is that it allows one to assess the impact of macroeconomic indicators of regional development on the level of informal employment, taking into account the implicit, not predetermined by the initial hypotheses, hierarchical relationships of factor indicators. Based on the generalization of the studies presented in the literature, as well as the authors’ statistical calculations using Rosstat data, the authors came to the conclusion about the high importance of macroeconomic parameters of regional development and systemic relationships of macroeconomic indicators in substantiating the differentiation of the informal level across the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

scholarly journals Container Throughput Forecasting Using Dynamic Factor Analysis and ARIMAX Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 529-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Intihar ◽  
Tomaž Kramberger ◽  
Dejan Dragan
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Dynamic Factor Analysis ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of integration of macroeconomic indicators on the accuracy of container throughput time series forecasting model. For this purpose, a Dynamic factor analysis and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average model with eXogenous inputs (ARIMAX) are used. Both methodologies are integrated into a novel four-stage heuristic procedure. Firstly, dynamic factors are extracted from external macroeconomic indicators influencing the observed throughput. Secondly, the family of ARIMAX models of different orders is generated based on the derived factors. In the third stage, the diagnostic and goodness-of-fit testing is applied, which includes statistical criteria such as fit performance, information criteria, and parsimony. Finally, the best model is heuristically selected and tested on the real data of the Port of Koper. The results show that by applying macroeconomic indicators into the forecasting model, more accurate future throughput forecasts can be achieved. The model is also used to produce future forecasts for the next four years indicating a more oscillatory behaviour in (2018-2020). Hence, care must be taken concerning any bigger investment decisions initiated from the management side. It is believed that the proposed model might be a useful reinforcement of the existing forecasting module in the observed port.

scholarly journals JUMLAH DANA ZAKAT DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR MAKROEKONOMI YANG MEMPENGARUHINYA

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. 743
Author(s):  
Kiki Novitasari ◽  
Suherman Rosyidi
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Data ◽  
Qualitative Approach ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Saturated Sample ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Sample Method ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study was to know the impact of macroeconomic indicators changes toward the total amount of collected zakah in BAZNAS during the period 2012-2016. This study uses qualitative approach by using liniear regression analysis technique. Futhermore dependent variable used in this study is the amount of zakah, while the independent variable are inflation, gold price, money supply and industrial production index. The determination of sampling uses non probability sampling with saturated sample method, on the other hand, the whole population was used as the sample of this study. Moreover, the data used in this study is secondary data.

scholarly journals Innovative Approach to Measuring the Impact of FDI on Some Macroeconomic Indicators in B&H

ECONOMICS ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-15
Author(s):  
Slobodan Subotić ◽  
Živko Erceg ◽  
Vladimir Marković ◽  
Goran Mitrović
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Economic Life ◽  
Capital Export ◽  
Economic Surplus ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARY The necessity of economic life and economic development of every economy is the free movement of capital. The international movement of capital has its balance of payment when capital export represents economic surplus in relation to consumption of the national economy and the import of capital represents an increase of consumption in regard to the output of a national economy. Analysis of the influence of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth of the host country, among other things, is emphasized in the function of the achieved phase of its economic development. Taking all this into consideration, the aim of this paper refers to an attempt to indicate the significance and the role of FDI as well as the importance of attracting foreign direct investment in B&H and the determination of the effects of FDI on the economy of B&H. In this regard, we will try to determine the level of FDI’s impact on some macroeconomic indicators in B&H (GDP, import, export, unemployment) by using contemporary SPSS statistical analysis program (model) and applying the methods (calculating coefficients) of correlation and regression analysis. In other words, we will determine the analytical expression used to describe a statistical relationship of these macroeconomic categories.

scholarly journals The Impact of Accounting Fundamentals and Macroeconomic Indicators on Manufacturing Companies' Stock Prices

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 22-29
Author(s):  
Van hyung Shih ◽  
Chien Hoang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Price Earnings Ratio ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Beneficial Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stock Values

The aim of this research is to ascertain if accounting fundamentals and macroeconomic indicators have an effect on stock prices. In this research, a quantitative method was used. The population of this research includes manufacturing firms listed on the Stock Exchange, with a sample size of ten companies collected through secondary data during the 2019-2020 quarter. Scale of data measurement using a ratio scale. The findings indicated that inflation and interest rate macroeconomic variables had little impact on stock values. Fundamentals of Accounting The return on equity and the price-earnings ratio both have a substantial beneficial impact on company prices

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Characteristics of Tourism Economy in the Republic of Tunisia

REGIONOLOGY ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 224-245
Author(s):  
Marina A. Zhulina ◽  
Vyacheslav M. Kitsis ◽  
Svetlana V. Saraykina
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Comparative Method ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
The Political ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The World ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Tourism Economy ◽  
The Impact

Introduction. Tourism is a dynamic, constantly developing sector of the economy. Tourism economy develops along with the society, recreation and tourism. The purpose of the article is to show the features of the impact of tourism on the national economy using the case of Tunisia. The experience of Tunisia is especially useful for the countries where beach recreation has developed and where the political situation has remained difficult for a long time (Egypt, Turkey, Thailand, etc.). Materials and Methods. The article is based on the statistical data provided by the World Tourism Organization, the World Data Atlas and open Internet sources. The study employed general scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, synthesis, comparison, etc.) and special ones (the methods of mathematical statistics, the graphical method, the comparative method, etc.). Results. For the first time, the article has provided a fairly complete description of the macroeconomic indicators characterizing the level of development of international tourism in Tunisia. The article has analyzed the dynamics of inbound and outbound tourism, discussed the factors affecting the volume of international tourism, considered international tourism expenditures and revenues, which to a large extent have a positive or negative impact on the country’s balance of payments. The trends in the development of international tourism in Tunisia have been revealed and the problems facing the industry have been identified. Discussion and Conclusion. The research has revealed that tourism economy largely depends on the political and economic processes taking place in the country. The current level of macroeconomic indicators of tourism economy in Tunisia lags behind the 2008–2009 figures. The results of the study made it possible to assess the current state of international tourism and make a number of suggestions aimed at increasing the level of development of international tourism in the country. The results of the study can contribute to the development of a program aimed to boost tourism economy in Tunisia, one of the key tasks of which should be that of increasing performance at the macro-level.

scholarly journals The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors In Economic Growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alush Kryeziu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
The Public ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

In this paper will be discussed the main concepts and trends of the macro-fiscal indicators in economic growth, as well as their importance in the economic development of different countries, with special emphasis in Kosovo. One of the aims of this paper is to define and explain the connection between macroeconomic indicators with specific emphasis: the public debt, budget deficit and inflation on economic growth. In order to analyze this impact of variables in economic growth, the targeted time period of research is the period from 2004 to 2014. While the data taken regarding Kosovo were obtained from the year 2005, due to the fact that earlier the data have been limited because of the developments in which Kosovo went through. The model that best represents the link between macro-fiscal indicators on economic growth is the linear regression as an econometric model. We will have the opportunity to see and interpret these data. The overall results have emerged in accordance with theoretical discussions presented, but this relationship has not turned out to be very strong because the coefficients acquired did not have great explanatory skills for economic phenomena.

scholarly journals How the global economy reflected the year of the pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 01014
Author(s):  
Vladislav Kaputa ◽  
Frederik Kvočák ◽  
Miroslava Triznová ◽  
Andrej Tomić ◽  
Hana Maťová
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Environmental Aspects ◽  
Data Comparison ◽  
The Social ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Reduced Mobility ◽  
The Impact

Research background: The coronavirus pandemic in 2020 had a significant impact on all aspects of life, from the point of view of the individual by forcing social isolation, moving work and study to the home, enormous pressure on the social and health system, but also by forcing closures of services and direct contact with customers. These, as well as other factors, have also had an impact on the performance of economies around the world. Purpose of the article: The paper aims to evaluate the development of the world's major economies in terms of macroeconomic indicators and foreign trade in the pandemic period and previous periods. The social and environmental aspects of the impact of the pandemic on selected economies are also reflected. Methods: Analysis of the main macroeconomic data, comparison and synthesis of findings. Findings & Value added: The interdependence of economies and interconnectedness of markets on transport routes associated with reduced mobility, forced isolation of people and death of economic activity had a significant impact on all the observed indicators, where a significant decline in GDP could be observed in all countries except China. This country was the only one that managed to keep GDP growth in positive numbers. Unemployment development was not equal in the observed economies due to different labour market environment. On the contrary, the environment has benefited in some way.

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