scholarly journals Management of the Biofuel Production Development on the Basis of Scenario Planning

2020 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 35-46
Author(s):  
Inna Kuznetsova ◽  
Olha Balabash ◽  
Nataliia Semenyshena ◽  
Yuliya Karpenko ◽  
Oksana Dudziak

The aim of the article is to substantiate the methodological approaches of scenario planning in the management of biofuel production development. The following methods were used in order to achieve the goal: cross-factor analysis, scenario planning method, expert methods, and scenario tree. The study analyzed primary energy consumption by economic sector and the total supply of primary energy by source, resulting in a declining supply of non-renewable energy sources such as oil, gas, coal and growing supply of biomass and waste, which was a source of biofuel production. The grouping of biofuel properties from the point of view of its attractiveness as an alternative energy resource was carried out. Factors that can negatively affect the pace of development of biofuel production are systematized. Dominant factors that had a critical impact on the development of biofuels have been identified: fluctuations in prices for electricity production in the traditional way, change in the popularity of greenhouse gas emission reduction programs, fluctuations in the use of electric vehicles, fluctuations in prices for fossil fuels, change in funding for programs to reduce environmental pollution and climate change. Stages of scenario planning with the use of cross-factor analysis were offered. A scenario tree model was formed. A matrix of cross-influence was constructed using expert evaluation and a scale of relations. The procedure of cross-influence and determination of dominant factors influencing the development of the activity “biofuel production” was proposed, which was characterized by the use of cross-factor analysis, which allowed assessing the probability of scenarios, establishing the interaction between them, and further calculating the expected effect from the implementation of measures. Applied research results and scenario assessments of the development potential of this area of activity can be used by entrepreneurs in the context of development and further implementation of investment projects for biofuel production.

Author(s):  
S.V. Goncharov ◽  
◽  
V.V. Karpachyov ◽  

The 21st century is entering the era of a leading to the development of environmentally clean and renewable energy sources, decarbonization and a decrease in global consumption of primary energy in the form of hydrocarbons in the European Union, the United States and other countries. A number of countries have a mandatory level of biofuel use, supported by tax incentives and subsidies. The EU Red Standard and the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard are policy initiatives that keep the demand for biofuels growing. In the next decade, the consumption of vegetable oils for biofuel production is projected to grow by 15%. The sowing area of oil crops in the Russian Federation in 2020 amounted to 14.3 million hectares, while 23% of the processing capacities of 25 million tons were not loaded. Turkey, Egypt and Iran will be among the top 5 major importers of Russian oil, along with China and India. Soybean and rapeseed are the main crops for processing into biodiesel. According to forecasts, the export of rapeseed oil may reach 1.1– 1.4 million tons by 2024. Renewable sources of primary energy consumption in Russia should reach 6% in its structure by 2040, which implies the development of alternative energy including the production of raw materials for biodiesel in.


Author(s):  
Almas Heshmati ◽  
Shahrouz Abolhosseini

This chapter reviews relevant literature on the current state and effectiveness of developing renewable energy on energy security in general, and on energy security in the European Union (EU) in particular. The chapter elaborates on primary energy import sources, possible alternatives, and how energy security is affected by the sources of supply. It also gives an analysis of the effects of the Ukrainian crisis, the isolation of Iran on diversification sources, and on European energy security. It examines EU’s energy policy, analyses the best motivation for a new energy policy direction within Europe, and suggests alternative solutions for enhanced energy supply security. The aim is to suggest suitable solutions for energy security in Europe through energy supply diversification. Supply diversification includes alternative energy corridors for reducing dependency on Russia as a supplier and enhancing the power generated by renewable energy sources under the European Union 2020 strategy.


DYNA ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 82 (193) ◽  
pp. 49-55
Author(s):  
Alejandro Gonzalez-Carrillo ◽  
Raziel Ruiz-Cabrera ◽  
Quetzalcoatl Cruz Hernandez-Escobedo ◽  
Aranzazú Fernández-García ◽  
Francisco Manzano-Agugliaro

Find alternative energy sources is one of the challenges that came with XXI century and this paper makes an analysis about wave energy, which presents several advantages over fossil based energy and even other renewable energy sources. Among them are its low environmental impact and its high energy density. Wave energy is beginning to be considered as an important and promising renewable resource in many countries. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the wave energy potential at the southern coast of the Gulf of Mexico; the sea states were observed and was obtained that the available mean wave power is 55.91 W/m. In addition, this paper shows that, in the study site, the most energetic season is fall and the less energetic season is spring. This differs from the global trend, were the most energetic season is winter, and the less energetic season is spring.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-27
Author(s):  
Natalia Pryshliak ◽  
Dina Tokarchuk

AbstractEnergy needs are determined by three main factors: population growth, the economic development of society, and the scientific and technical level of production processes. These needs are increasing year by year in the world and in 2018 they exceeded 13.5 billion tons of oil equivalent. More and more countries are developing and implementing plans and strategies for significant coverage, within 50-100%, of their energy needs through renewable energy sources. The findings of this study revealed that Ukraine’s energy demand per year is 200 million tons of oil equivalent of energy resources. Currently, the share of renewable energy in the structure of energy consumption in Ukraine is 4.4%. The authors also acknowledged that at the same time, 115 million tons of agricultural plant waste and about 97 million tons of animal waste are generated annually in Ukraine, which makes it possible to produce 7.21 million tons of oil equivalent and 2.2 million tons of oil equivalent, respectively from these. The study found that the production of biofuels from agricultural waste will have social, economic and environmental effects. An efficiency matrix was constructed by the authors to determine these effects. Using the SWOT method of analysis, factors that will affect the development of biofuel production from agricultural waste were determined.


2020 ◽  
Vol 167 ◽  
pp. 03001
Author(s):  
Shiplu Sarker ◽  
Goneta Pecani ◽  
Dejon Vula ◽  
Alemayehu Gebremedhin

Prizren is a city located in the south part of Kosovo with approximately 90,000 inhabitants and land area of 640 km2. The region is covered with distinct geographical features, that favor penetration and deployment of various forms of renewable energy. Particularly, solar, wind and hydro energy potential are considered to be the most available options here. In this study, the potential of these renewable energy sources and their viability for energy production are evaluated using a computational modeling tool. The potential investment opportunities are analyzed based on a 50-year life time project. The results suggest that integrating renewable energy to the existing energy system will enable Prizren region and partly the entire Kosovo for coping with load fluctuations in energy demand. Also, it is expected that the added renewable energy in the existing energy mix will, in a broad perspective, lead to meet the European Union’s target of accelerated renewable energy penetration by the year 2030, and in turn to reduce the greenhouse gas emission to the environment.


2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.G. Geletukha ◽  
T.A. Zheliezna ◽  
A.I. Bashtovyi ◽  
G.I. Geletukha

The current state of the development of bioenergy in Ukraine is presented. Prospects for the production of heat from biomass by sectors of consumption until 2050 are estimated. The most important barriers to the development of the sector are analyzed, ways for their complete or partial overcoming are suggested. The current state of the development of bioenergy in Ukraine is presented. It is shown that according to Ukraine’s energy balance for 2010-2016, the average annual growth of bioenergy is 45 % by the «production of biofuel and wastes» and 35 % by the «total primary energy supply from biofuels and wastes». Despite quite good dynamics of the development, to reach key figures of the National Renewable Energy Action Plan until 2020 it is necessary to speed up bioenergy growth. Prospects for the production of heat from biomass by sectors of consumption until 2050 are estimated. The obtained results show that the share of renewables in the total heat production may be over 57 % in 2050. At that the consumption of renewable energy sources will be about 13.8 Mtoe/yr (of which biomass accounts for over 90 %), and the respective replacement of natural gas will come to about 17 billion m3/yr. The most important barriers to the development of bioenergy sector are analyzed, and ways for their complete or partial overcoming are suggested. Ukraine has quite good legal basis for the development of renewable energy. In particular, it includes the feed-in tariff for power produced from alternative energy sources and stimulating tariff for heat produced from alternative energy sources for households and public buildings. For the wider involvement of biomass in the fuel and energy balance of Ukraine it is necessary to provide legal basis and implementation of a number of important measures.Among others, they include creating preconditions for increasing harvesting of wood in Ukraine’s forests, introduction of the electronic biofuel trade system, ensuring fair access of independentproducersofbiomassheattoheatnetworksandother.


Author(s):  
Niharika Wakchaure ◽  
Shashank Waghmare ◽  
Ruchira Rakshe ◽  
Minaxi Rai Sharma ◽  
Ashish Joshi

A life of human beings is dependent on the energy which they consume for their everyday purpose, it can be for illumination, running a gadget and many other purposes which contribute towards the development of mankind and also for economic growth. If global energy consumption is taken into consideration, every resource has its own quantity. As the years pass by, one can observe the depletion of naturally available conventional resources of energy. Hence, the world has been shifting to renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, tidal power. Even though, there isn’t any greater transformation in the energy consumption from the conventional sources due to their higher efficiency deliveries. If an alternative energy resource has to be discovered, one has to look for the sources available in the surrounding. When the road traffic is considered for an instance, the number of vehicles travelling are enormous and due to the movement, every vehicle induces a certain number of vibrations into the pavement below which collectively turns out to be plenty if the vibrations from all the vehicles are to be taken in account. The researchers have come up with a technology to harness this energy and make it usable to the consumers. To convert one form of energy to another, a transducer can be used which is capable of transforming the entire input energy into an output voltage. This form of output is said to be called ‘piezoelectricity’ where the incident pressure is potentially converted into electricity that can be utilized for numerous purposes.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Lauren K. D’Souza ◽  
William L. Ascher ◽  
Tanja Srebotnjak

Native American reservations are among the most economically disadvantaged regions in the United States; lacking access to economic and educational opportunities that are exacerbated by “energy insecurity” due to insufficient connectivity to the electric grid and power outages. Local renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and biomass offer energy alternatives but their implementation encounters barriers such as lack of financing, infrastructure, and expertise, as well as divergent attitudes among tribal leaders. Biomass, in particular, could be a source of stable base-load power that is abundant and scalable in many rural communities. This case study examines the feasibility of a biomass energy plant on the Cocopah reservation in southwestern Arizona. It considers feedstock availability, cost and energy content, technology options, nameplate capacity, discount and interest rates, construction, operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, and alternative investment options. This study finds that at current electricity prices and based on typical costs for fuel, O&M over 30 years, none of the tested scenarios is presently cost-effective on a net present value (NPV) basis when compared with an alternative investment yielding annual returns of 3% or higher. The technology most likely to be economically viable and suitable for remote, rural contexts—a combustion stoker—resulted in a levelized costs of energy (LCOE) ranging from US$0.056 to 0.147/kWh. The most favorable scenario is a combustion stoker with an estimated NPV of US$4,791,243. The NPV of the corresponding alternative investment is US$7,123,380. However, if the tribes were able to secure a zero-interest loan to finance the plant’s installation cost, the project would be on par with the alternative investment. Even if this were the case, the scenario still relies on some of the most optimistic assumptions for the biomass-to-power plant and excludes abatement costs for air emissions. The study thus concludes that at present small-scale, biomass-to-energy projects require a mix of favorable market and local conditions as well as appropriate policy support to make biomass energy projects a cost-competitive source of stable, alternative energy for remote rural tribal communities that can provide greater tribal sovereignty and economic opportunities.


2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 885-904
Author(s):  
M.E. Frai

Subject. The article discusses limited sources of energy nowadays and an ongoing survey of new ones. I focus on fuel and energy complexes worldwide and in Russia. Objectives. The study is to analyze the future use of alternative energy sources in the fuel and energy complex nationwide and worldwide. I review the existing energy sources of the fuel and energy complex in the global and regional markets, specifically the alternative ones. Methods. The study relies upon methods of statistics, analysis and systems approach. Results. The article demonstrates that the fuel and energy complex strongly depends on the current situation in the energy resource market, which is difficult to forecast. If we continue relying on traditional energy resources, we get exposed to some risks affecting the sustainable development of the economy. Russia should diversify the power engineering sector by developing alternative energy sources. The article sets forth the economic rationale for alternative sources and key steps Russia shall make. Conclusions and Relevance. Considering the current situation in the energy balance, alternative energy is what any advanced society seeks for, being supported by manufacturers, governmental institutions, and researchers, though low profitability and high infrastructure costs impede its development. In Russia, these challenges are even more palpable. However, even now Russia is able to find alternative energy solutions. In addition to advantages of alternative energy, which is globally proclaimed, they will also help Russia diversify and update the economic system.


Author(s):  
Александр Григорьевич Комков ◽  
Александр Константинович Сокольский

В статье рассмотрено современное состояние энергоснабжения и перспективы развития альтернативных источников энергии на территории Крайнего Севера. Отмечено, что несмотря на острую потребность во внедрении возобновляемых источников энергии, установленные мощности всех ветряных и солнечных электростанций в регионе не превышают 7-8 МВт. Также в работе рассчитаны технический и экономический потенциал ветровой энергии региона, на основании которых подобрана наиболее эффективная установка. The article discusses the current state of energy supply and the prospects for the development of alternative energy sources in the Far North. It is noted that despite the urgent need for the introduction of renewable energy sources, the installed capacities of all wind and solar power plants in the region do not exceed 7-8 MW. Also, the technical and economic potential of the region’s wind energy was calculated based on which the most efficient installation was selected.


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