scholarly journals Risk Analysis in Engineering Projects

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Gorbunov
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Random Processes ◽  
Optimal Management ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
Modern Business ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Engineering Projects

Modern business processes are characterized by a large number of random factors that can affect the characteristics of internal and external processes. The created models use the method of calculating output parameters as an operation with random characteristics of factors that affect the final results. The processes and factors of the project are divided into permanent and random. Random processes are characterized by individual distributions and characteristics. The mathematical model of a business project is formed by a program that performs operations with the characteristics of random factors and risk factors that form the business project. The generated model allows you to calculate financial flows and balances at all stages of the project implementation, and determines various indicators of its effectiveness. To optimize these indicators, it is planned to introduce anti-risk measures. The model allows you to optimize the number of such activities, taking into account their cost and the degree of impact on the project performance indicators. Using the proposed method of analyzing business projects allows you to take into account possible random factors and risk factors and make the most optimal management decisions.

scholarly journals Cyclic Linear Random Process As A Mathematical Model Of Cyclic Signals

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 219-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergiy Lupenko ◽  
Nadiia Lutsyk ◽  
Yuri Lapusta
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Random Process ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Random Processes ◽  
Stochastic Signals ◽  
Cyclic Random Process ◽  
The Mathematical Model

Abstract In this study the cyclic linear random process is defined, that combines the properties of linear random process and cyclic random process. This expands the possibility describing cyclic signals and processes within the framework of linear random processes theory and generalizes their known mathematical model as a linear periodic random process. The conditions for the kernel are given and the probabilistic characteristics of generated process of linear random process in order to be a cyclic random process. The advantages of the cyclic linear random process are presented. It can be used as the mathematical model of the cyclic stochastic signals and processes in various fields of science and technology.

scholarly journals Voice on quantitative methods in risk management by an air operator

2020 ◽  
Vol 109 ◽  
pp. 103-116
Author(s):  
Piotr MAKOWSKI
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Assessment Indicator ◽  
Excursion Probability ◽  
The Mathematical Model

This article is devoted to the diagnosis of problems arising from risk management obligations under the safety management system implemented in civil organisations of certified air operators (carriers). Focus was on the use of quantitative methods in safety risk analysis. The idea of an approach to determine the probability of accidents and serious incidents based on the intensity of symptoms with lower consequences and risk factors as a function of time or number of performed air operations was proposed, based on Markov discrete processes [6,10-12,16]. The essence of this approach is explained by the mathematical model of Runway Excursion probability during landing operations. The concept of improvement of operators' cooperation in the exchange of information about safety indicators by profiling the organisation was presented. The last proposal concerns the construction of a comprehensive risk assessment indicator using a safety risk matrix.

Digitalization Analysis of Engineering Projects Using the Oil and Gas Sector as an Example

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 688-696
Author(s):  
M. R. Usmanov ◽  
◽  
D. A. Fomenkov ◽  
M. A. Shushkin ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Business Processes ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Maximum Efficiency ◽  
Engineering Project ◽  
Optimal Decisions ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Modern Business ◽  
Analytical Tools ◽  
Engineering Projects ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

he article outlines critical analysis of methods used in assessment of digitalization in companies and projects. Based on the results the authors infer the necessity of development of methods that might be used in analysis of engineering centers digitalization. The article presents new method that allows to estimate the level of intensity and effectiveness of different practices in digitalization. The method was tested in analysis of digitalization of engineering projects in oil industry. Digitalization is one of the main processes of changing modern business. Most companies actively declare the introduction of new digitalization tools in management. At the same time, these processes do not always lead to an increase in management efficiency. To make optimal decisions on the use of business digitalization tools, the development of appropriate analytical tools is required. The presented methodology includes: a set of metrics for the efficiency and activity of digitalization of an engineering project: grouping of metrics into three blocks; a method for evaluating the analyzed metrics, an algorithm for analyzing the digitalization of projects and making managerial decisions for their optimization. The technique presented in the article allows us to identify problem areas of digitalization in the business processes of the engineering center, as well as to determine in which directions the maximum efficiency was achieved. This methodology is aimed at making managerial decisions regarding the use of various tools for digitalizing business processes in the implementation of engineering projects.

Mathematical Model of Oceanographic Buoy Solar Energy Power Source Design Based on Double Batteries

2013 ◽  
Vol 740 ◽  
pp. 782-786
Author(s):  
Guo Liang Zou ◽  
Xin Nan Lou
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Power Supply System ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Power Source ◽  
Supply System ◽  
Rainy Weather ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Engineering Projects ◽  
Rainy Days

To implement the objective of steady operation of the marine observation buoy system on the sea throughout the year,based on energy balance between supply and demand, this paper presents the mathematical model of solar energy power supply system derived from double batteries switching technology. The batteries are divided into main batteries and auxiliary batteries. The main batteries are used regularly and the auxiliary batteries are used in periodic rainy weather. The main advantage of this model is that the capacity of auxiliary batteries can be dynamic calculated based on the numbers of maximum continuous rainy days and minimum intervals between rainy days. The batteries capacity is sufficient but not redundant. This design project has been tested on marine buoy and the accuracy of the model is splendid for most engineering projects.

scholarly journals Information space of the economic management system in the business management system

2021 ◽  
Vol 273 ◽  
pp. 08088
Author(s):  
Еvgenia Muratova ◽  
Elena Kravchenko ◽  
Anna Sukhoveeva ◽  
Olga Andreeva
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Management System ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
Business Management ◽  
Information Space ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Space Model ◽  
Control Actions ◽  
Formalized Description ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The process of possible automation of developing control actions is considered and presented in the article as the mathematical model that shows the economic mechanism of one or more business processes along with the formalized description of management accounting and controlling procedures. As a result, the information space model of the economic management system is obtained which is filled with a set of possible states created.

RISK OF DISEASE-SELECTIVE PREDATION IN AN INFECTED PREY-PREDATOR SYSTEM

2009 ◽  
Vol 17 (01) ◽  
pp. 111-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHARIFUL ALAM
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Selective Predation ◽  
Discrete Time Delay ◽  
Risk Of Disease ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Predator System ◽  
Infected Prey

In this paper the mathematical model of disease-selective predation as proposed by Roy and Chattopadhyay10 is considered to identify the true risk of selective predation where the predator can recognize the infected prey and avoids those during predation. Furthermore, the model is modified by adding a discrete time delay in the term involving the gestation of prey by the predator and analyzed both numerically and analytically to review the risk factors.

scholarly journals EVALUATION PROBABILITY OF INGOING FACTOR IN THE EMERGENCY SITUATIONS OF AIRCRAFT

2014 ◽  
pp. 40-49
Author(s):  
Олександр Курдеча
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Estimation Risk ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Structural Relationships ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Mathematical Model

 This paper describes the evaluation probability of ingoing factor (factor which leads to emergency situations)in the specific situations (abnormal situations and contingencies which evolution dependence from human action in it)as the system of contacts between failures of aircraft and aviation personnel erroneous actions.In this paper investigation is concerned with types of factors to analyse the causation of accidents from a probability factors' point of view.The paper makes it possible to assess the impact of factors on the possibility of an accident. This is achieved by taking into account the structural relationships between risk factors.As a result, we have suggested the mathematical model of estimation risk factors with using information of aviation events in the world statistics provided in the ADREP and formulates the concept of danger, numerical value of which is determined by the probability of occurrence of a factor in the disastrous situation.

DETERMINATION OF PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF THE TRUCK KrAZ-6510TE

2020 ◽  
pp. 19-26
Author(s):  
Olexandr Pavlenko ◽  
Serhii Dun ◽  
Maksym Skliar
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Surface Friction ◽  
Building Structures ◽  
Maximum Torque ◽  
Military Equipment ◽  
Military Vehicles ◽  
Force Magnitude ◽  
Vehicle Mobility ◽  
The Mathematical Model

In any economy there is a need for the bulky goods transportation which cannot be divided into smaller parts. Such cargoes include building structures, elements of industrial equipment, tracked or wheeled construction and agricultural machinery, heavy armored military vehicles. In any case, tractor-semitrailer should provide fast delivery of goods with minimal fuel consumption. In order to guarantee the goods delivery, tractor-semitrailers must be able to overcome the existing roads broken grade and be capable to tow a semi-trailer in off-road conditions. These properties are especially important for military equipment transportation. The important factor that determines a tractor-semitrailer mobility is its gradeability. The purpose of this work is to improve a tractor-semitrailer mobility with tractor units manufactured at PJSC “AutoKrAZ” by increasing the tractor-semitrailer gradeability. The customer requirements for a new tractor are determined by the maximizing the grade to 18°. The analysis of the characteristics of modern tractor-semitrailers for heavy haulage has shown that the highest rate of this grade is 16.7°. The factors determining the limiting gradeability value were analyzed, based on the tractor-semitrailer with a KrAZ-6510TE tractor and a semi-trailer with a full weight of 80 t. It has been developed a mathematical model to investigate the tractor and semi-trailer axles vertical reactions distribution on the tractor-semitrailer friction performances. The mathematical model has allowed to calculate the gradeability value that the tractor-semitrailer can overcome in case of wheels and road surface friction value and the tractive force magnitude from the engine. The mathematical model adequacy was confirmed by comparing the calculations results with the data of factory tests. The analysis showed that on a dry road the KrAZ-6510TE tractor with a 80 t gross weight semitrailer is capable to climb a gradient of 14,35 ° with its coupling mass full use condition. The engine's maximum torque allows the tractor-semitrailer to overcome a gradient of 10.45° It has been determined the ways to improve the design of the KrAZ-6510TE tractor to increase its gradeability. Keywords: tractor, tractor-semitrailer vehicle mobility, tractor-semitrailer vehicle gradeability.

EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES OF CAR PROPERTIES ON A PHYSICAL MODEL

2019 ◽  
pp. 10-16
Author(s):  
Oleksii Timkov ◽  
Dmytro Yashchenko ◽  
Volodymyr Bosenko
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Remote Control ◽  
Physical Model ◽  
Model Experiment ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Motor Current ◽  
Memory Card ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The article deals with the development of a physical model of a car equipped with measuring, recording and remote control equipment for experimental study of car properties. A detailed description of the design of the physical model and of the electronic modules used is given, links to application libraries and the code of the first part of the program for remote control of the model are given. Atmega microcontroller on the Arduino Uno platform was used to manage the model and register the parameters. When moving the car on the memory card saved such parameters as speed, voltage on the motor, current on the motor, the angle of the steered wheel, acceleration along three coordinate axes are recorded. Use of more powerful microcontrollers will allow to expand the list of the registered parameters of movement of the car. It is possible to measure the forces acting on the elements of the car and other parameters. In the future, it is planned to develop a mathematical model of motion of the car and check its adequacy in conducting experimental studies on maneuverability on the physical model. In addition, it is possible to conduct studies of stability and consumption of electrical energy. The physical model allows to quickly change geometric dimensions and mass parameters. In the study of highway trains, this approach will allow to investigate the various layout schemes of highway trains in the short term. It is possible to make two-axle road trains and saddle towed trains, three-way hitched trains of different layout. The results obtained will allow us to improve not only the mathematical model, but also the experimental physical model, and move on to further study the properties of hybrid road trains with an active trailer link. This approach allows to reduce material and time costs when researching the properties of cars and road trains. Keywords: car, physical model, experiment, road trains, sensor, remote control, maneuverability, stability.

RESEARCH OF INDICATORS OF A VEHICLE WITH A DIESEL WORKING ON DIESEL AND DIESEL GAS CYCLES USING THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL

2020 ◽  
pp. 14-19
Author(s):  
Serhii Kovbasenko ◽  
Andriy Holyk ◽  
Serhii Hutarevych
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Diesel Engine ◽  
Environmental Performance ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Dual Fuel ◽  
Fuel System ◽  
Compressed Natural Gas ◽  
Diesel Vehicles ◽  
Diesel Cycle ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The features of an advanced mathematical model of motion of a truck with a diesel engine operating on the diesel and diesel gas cycles are presented in the article. As a result of calculations using the mathematical model, a decrease in total mass emissions as a result of carbon monoxide emissions is observed due to a decrease in emissions of nitrogen oxides and emissions of soot in the diesel gas cycle compared to the diesel cycle. The mathematical model of a motion of a truck on a city driving cycle according to GOST 20306-90 allows to study the fuel-economic, environmental and energy indicators of a diesel and diesel gas vehicle. The results of the calculations on the mathematical model will make it possible to conclude on the feasibility of converting diesel vehicles to using compressed natural gas. Object of the study – the fuel-economic, environmental and energy performance diesel engine that runs on dual fuel system using CNG. Purpose of the study – study of changes in fuel, economic, environmental and energy performance of vehicles with diesel engines operating on diesel and diesel gas cycles, according to urban driving cycle modes. Method of the study – calculations on a mathematical model and comparison of results with road tests. Bench and road tests, results of calculations on the mathematical model of motion of a truck with diesel, working on diesel and diesel gas cycles, show the improvement of environmental performance of diesel vehicles during the converting to compressed natural gas in operation. Improvement of environmental performance is obtained mainly through the reduction of soot emissions and nitrogen oxides emissions from diesel gas cycle operations compared to diesel cycle operations. The results of the article can be used to further develop dual fuel system using CNG. Keywords: diesel engine, diesel gas engine, CNG

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