scholarly journals Estimation of parameters for a humidity-dependent compartmental model of the COVID-19 outbreak

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e10790
Author(s):  
Csaba Farkas ◽  
David Iclanzan ◽  
Boróka Olteán-Péter ◽  
Géza Vekov
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Estimation Of Parameters ◽  
Time Dynamic ◽  
A Value ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Building an effective and highly usable epidemiology model presents two main challenges: finding the appropriate, realistic enough model that takes into account complex biological, social and environmental parameters and efficiently estimating the parameter values with which the model can accurately match the available outbreak data, provide useful projections. The reproduction number of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has been found to vary over time, potentially being influenced by a multitude of factors such as varying control strategies, changes in public awareness and reaction or, as a recent study suggests, sensitivity to temperature or humidity changes. To take into consideration these constantly evolving factors, the paper introduces a time dynamic, humidity-dependent SEIR-type extended epidemiological model with range-defined parameters. Using primarily the historical data of the outbreak from Northern and Southern Italy and with the help of stochastic global optimization algorithms, we are able to determine a model parameter estimation that provides a high-quality fit to the data. The time-dependent contact rate showed a quick drop to a value slightly below 2. Applying the model for the COVID-19 outbreak in the northern region of Italy, we obtained parameters that suggest a slower shrinkage of the contact rate to a value slightly above 4. These findings indicate that model fitting and validation, even on a limited amount of available data, can provide useful insights and projections, uncover aspects that upon improvement might help mitigate the disease spreading.

scholarly journals A model of dual latency compartments for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Oyo state, Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
O. Adedire ◽  
◽  
J. N. Ndam ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Media ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
A Value ◽  
The People ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Effective Use

In this study, a mathematical model of dual latency compartments is developed to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic in Oyo state, Nigeria. The model consists of non-pharmaceutical control strategies which include the use of face masks, social-distancing and impact of mass-media on the spread of novel coronavirus in the state. Results indicate control reproduction number \(R_C = 1.4\) with possibilities of high constructive influence of mass-media. Thus, at the fitted values of \(\sigma _f = 0.1,\; \sigma _d = 0.1,\;\sigma _m = 0.6\), the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic is attained after 59,217 infectious quarantined individuals and 328,440 infectious but not quarantined individuals have contracted COVID-19 in about 439 and 443 days respectively from the date of the first incidence. Therefore, efforts on mass-media with programs that can inform the people on effective use of face masks, social-distancing and other safety measures can aid reduction of reproduction number to a value below 1 necessary for eradication of the disease.

Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) and Pregnancy: A hypothetical view

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed RG
Keyword(s):  
Immune System ◽  
Cellular Therapy ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Healthy Life ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Maternal Immune System ◽  
Perinatal Management ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Background: The complications of the SARS-CoV-2 infection and its COVID-19 disease on mothers and their offspring are less known. Objective: The aim of this review was to determine the transmission, severity, complications of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the pregnancy. This review showed the influence of COVID-19 disease on the neonatal neurogenesis. Owing to no specific vaccines or medicines that were reported for the treatment of COVID-19 disease, this review suggested some control strategies like treatments (medicinal plants, antiviral therapy, cellular therapy, and immunotherapy), nutrition uptake, prevention, and recommendations. Discussion: This overview showed in severely states that SARS-CoV-2 infection during the early stage of pregnancy might increase the risk of stress, panic, and anxiety. This disorder can disturb the maternal immune system, and thus causing a neurodevelopmental disturbance. This hypothesis may be depending on the severity and intensity of the SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy. However, vertical transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from dams to their fetuses is absent until now. Conclusion: During this global pandemic disease, maintaining safety during pregnancy, vaginal delivery, and breastfeeding may play a vital role in a healthy life for the offspring. Thus, international and national corporations should be continuing for perinatal management, particularly during the next pandemic or disaster time.

scholarly journals Predicting the Presence of Leptospires in Rodents from Environmental Indicators Opens Up Opportunities for Environmental Monitoring of Human Leptospirosis

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 325
Author(s):  
Leon Biscornet ◽  
Christophe Révillion ◽  
Sylvaine Jégo ◽  
Erwan Lagadec ◽  
Yann Gomard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Sampling Site ◽  
Rattus Rattus ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Environmental Indicators ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Urban Landscapes ◽  
Infection Prevalence

Leptospirosis, an environmental infectious disease of bacterial origin, is the infectious disease with the highest associated mortality in Seychelles. In small island territories, the occurrence of the disease is spatially heterogeneous and a better understanding of the environmental factors that contribute to the presence of the bacteria would help implement targeted control. The present study aimed at identifying the main environmental parameters correlated with animal reservoirs distribution and Leptospira infection in order to delineate habitats with highest prevalence. We used a previously published dataset produced from a large collection of rodents trapped during the dry and wet seasons in most habitats of Mahé, the main island of Seychelles. A land use/land cover analysis was realized in order to describe the various environments using SPOT-5 images by remote sensing (object-based image analysis). At each sampling site, landscape indices were calculated and combined with other geographical parameters together with rainfall records to be used in a multivariate statistical analysis. Several environmental factors were found to be associated with the carriage of leptospires in Rattus rattus and Rattus norvegicus, namely low elevations, fragmented landscapes, the proximity of urbanized areas, an increased distance from forests and, above all, increased precipitation in the three months preceding trapping. The analysis indicated that Leptospira renal carriage could be predicted using the species identification and a description of landscape fragmentation and rainfall, with infection prevalence being positively correlated with these two environmental variables. This model may help decision makers in implementing policies affecting urban landscapes and/or in balancing conservation efforts when designing pest control strategies that should also aim at reducing human contact with Leptospira-laden rats while limiting their impact on the autochthonous fauna.

scholarly journals Characterization of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus X4-like accessory protein

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olanrewaju Ayodeji Durojaye ◽  
Nkwachukwu Oziamara Okoro ◽  
Arome Solomon Odiba
Keyword(s):  
Rapid Development ◽  
Protein A ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
A Value ◽  
Model Protein ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Global Threat

Abstract Background The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is currently a global threat to health and economies. Therapeutics and vaccines are in rapid development; however, none of these therapeutics are considered as absolute cure, and the potential to mutate makes it necessary to find therapeutics that target a highly conserved regions of the viral structure. Results In this study, we characterized an essential but poorly understood coronavirus accessory X4 protein, a core and stable component of the SARS-CoV family. Sequence analysis shows a conserved ~ 90% identity between the SARS-CoV-2 and previously characterized X4 protein in the database. QMEAN Z score of the model protein shows a value of around 0.5, within the acceptable range 0–1. A MolProbity score of 2.96 was obtained for the model protein and indicates a good quality model. The model has Ramachandran values of φ = − 57o and ψ = − 47o for α-helices and values of φ = − 130o and ψ = + 140o for twisted sheets. Conclusions The protein data obtained from this study provides robust information for further in vitro and in vivo experiment, targeted at devising therapeutics against the virus. Phylogenetic analysis further supports previous evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 is positioned with the SL-CoVZC45, BtRs-BetaCoV/YN2018B and the RS4231 Bat SARS-like corona viruses.

scholarly journals Risk perception regarding the COVID-19 outbreak among the general population: a comparative Middle East survey

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Abdel Hameed Shahin ◽  
Rasha Mohammed Hussien
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
General Population ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Background People’s perceptions of pandemic-associated risk are key factors contributing to increased public participation in disease preventive measures. The aim of the study was to investigate risk perceptions regarding the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, among the general population. A descriptive, cross-sectional design was used with a convenience sample of 723 participants, recruited from the general population of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. Data collection was performed using a standardized risk perception assessment questionnaire, in April 2020. Results The mean score for the perception of COVID-19 seriousness was significantly higher and the mean scores for the perception of disease susceptibility and extent of anxiety were also higher among Saudi Arabian participants than participants from Egypt and Jordan. Participants from Egypt had significantly lower mean scores for the perception of efficacy and self-efficacy to cope with COVID-19, and significantly lower intention to comply with COVID-19 precautionary measures than the other populations. A significant positive correlation was detected between the perception of COVID-19 seriousness and self-efficacy to handle COVID-19, for the entire sample. The primary reasons reported by participants driving their willingness to perform certain preventive measures against COVID-19 was a feeling of responsibility toward their own health, followed by preventing transmission to other people and the feeling that COVID-19 can be serious. Most of the study sample reported a desire to receive information about COVID-19 treatment, ways to prevent disease contraction, and the incubation period for the novel coronavirus. Also, most of the study sample reported that they prefer receiving COVID-19 updates from national authorities. Conclusions During the COVID-19 pandemic, communications designed to promote the adoption of preventive behaviors should focus on increasing the perception of seriousness, the risk perception, self-efficacy to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effectiveness of the adopted behavioral measures for reducing risk. Health education programs that are tailored to various sociodemographic categories, to improve public awareness, perceptions, and attitudes, are vital for increasing the adoption of outbreak preventive measures.

scholarly journals Eco-Environmental Aspects of COVID-19 Pandemic and Potential Control Strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 3488
Author(s):  
Rashid Nazir ◽  
Jawad Ali ◽  
Ijaz Rasul ◽  
Emilie Widemann ◽  
Sarfraz Shafiq
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Noise Pollution ◽  
Environmental Aspects ◽  
Potential Control ◽  
Health Infrastructure ◽  
The People ◽  
Slum Dwellers ◽  
Hospital Wastes ◽  
Future Outbreak

A new coronavirus-strain from a zoonotic reservoir (probably bat)—termed as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)—has recently claimed more than two million deaths worldwide. Consequently, a burst of scientific reports on epidemiology, symptoms, and diagnosis came out. However, a comprehensive understanding of eco-environmental aspects that may contribute to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is still missing, and we therefore aim to focus here on these aspects. In addition to human–human direct SARS-CoV-2 transmission, eco-environmental sources, such as air aerosols, different public use objects, hospital wastes, livestock/pet animals, municipal wastes, ventilation facilities, soil and groundwater potentially contribute to SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Further, high temperature and humidity were found to limit the spread of COVID-19. Although the COVID-19 pandemic led to decrease air and noise pollution during the period of lockdown, increased use of masks and gloves is threatening the environment by water and soil pollutions. COVID-19 badly impacted all the socio-economic groups in different capacities, where women, slum dwellers, and the people lacking social protections are the most vulnerable. Finally, sustainable strategies, waste management, biodiversity reclaim, eco-friendly lifestyle, improved health infrastructure and public awareness, were proposed to minimize the COVID-19 impact on our society and environment. These strategies will seemingly be equally effective against any future outbreak.

scholarly journals Atypical Presentation of Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a Peritoneal Dialysis Patient

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 232470962093123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subhasish Bose ◽  
Sreedhar Adapa ◽  
Venu Madhav Konala ◽  
Hemapriya Gopalreddy ◽  
Salim Sohail ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage Renal Disease ◽  
Health Care Systems ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Peritoneal Dialysis Patient ◽  
Atypical Presentation ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a rapidly spreading disease causing increased morbidity and mortality across the globe. There is limited available knowledge regarding the natural history of the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Other factors that are also making this infection spread like a pandemic include global travelers, lack of proven treatment, asymptomatic carriers, potential reinfection, underprepared global health care systems, and lack of public awareness and efforts to prevent further spread. It is understood that certain preexisting medical conditions increase the risk of mortality with COVID-19; however, the outcome of this disease in traditionally vulnerable chronic illnesses such as end-stage renal disease is not well documented. We present a case of a 56-year-old African American lady with end-stage renal disease on the peritoneal dialysis who presented predominantly with nausea, vomiting, and subsequently found to have COVID-19. We use this case to illustrate an atypical presentation of the COVID-19 in a vulnerable patient and discuss the literature.

scholarly journals EFEKTIFITASPELAYANANPUBLIK DIKECAMATAN SAMARINDA KOTA DI SAMARINDA

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Jubaidi
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Service Delivery ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Research Method ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Field Research ◽  
Civil Registration ◽  
A Value ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Cost

The purpose of this study is to determine the effectiveness of KK, KTP, and AK services in Samarinda Kota sub district and its factors influencing the effectiveness of KK, KTP, AKservices.The research used field research method which gives an overview on the effectiveness of KK, KTP, and AK services in Samarinda Kota sub district. Data collection techniques use observation techniques, interviews, and media questionnaires by selecting informants who play a role and are involved technically and functionally in service delivery to the community. The data obtained are then analyzed qualitatively and supported by quantitative data.The results showed that service implementation in Samarinda Kota sub-district, especially in the field of population administration and civil registration is done in accordance with existing mechanism and regulation which have been determined by seeing some service indicator such as simplicity is in very safe category with 6.67% and certainty of service procedure and tariff cost are in accordance with the value of 88.33% and 70% respectively, the security and convenience of facilities and infrastructure are in safe and comfortable category with 65% and 73.33% respectively, openness about the ease of obtaining information and provisions services in the categories easy and explained if requested with the value of 71.67% and 63.33% respectively, economical about the cost of KK rates, ID cards, AK category Rp 10,000 - Rp 15,000, equitable fairness with a value of 60%, the timeliness is in category 1 - 2 days, and the efficiency is an exact category with a value of 80%.  And the factors that affect the service is the resources apparatus, facilities and infrastructure, and public awareness. Keywords: Effectiveness, Public Service

An experimental evaluation of conventional control measures against the sheep tick, Ixodes ricinus (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae). II. The dynamics of the tick-host interaction

1985 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 501-518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah E. Randolph ◽  
Gordon M. Steele
Keyword(s):  
Ixodes Ricinus ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Stocking Density ◽  
Experimental Manipulation ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Host Interaction ◽  
Questing Ticks

AbstractThe experimental manipulation of separate, but originally identical, populations of Ixodes ricinus (L.) by applying three conventional tick control measures in different enclosures on naturally infested moorland in Wales allowed the elements of the tick-host interaction to be analysed quantitatively and the effectiveness of the control methods to be compared. From the relationship between the sheep stocking density and the numbers of questing ticks picked up by fortnightly blanket-dragging in each enclosure, the death rate of ticks during their activity season and the rate of contact between sheep and ticks were calculated. From this, it was possible to investigate the effect of different stocking densities on the feeding success of ticks. A major factor determining the much lower contact rate for larvae than for nymphs was the different spatial distribution of questing ticks, clumped for larvae and random for nymphs. The non-random use by sheep of the three different vegetation zones in the paddock resulted in the highest contact rate between sheep and ticks in the pasture area, but tick survival was apparently highest in the bog area. Combining these factors resulted in the prediction that the bracken area was the least favourable habitat for ticks. In the two enclosures where the sheep were not treated with acaricide the mean tick loads on the sheep were similar, but the lower overall use of the pasture by the sheep in the low stocking density enclosure (2/ha) resulted in slightly lower tick loads there compared with those in the high stocking density enclosure (4/ha). The numbers of ticks counted in the second year showed that pasture spelling was the most effective control method, acaricide treatment was less effective, and the benefits of halving the stocking density were marginal. The implications of these results for control strategies are discussed.

Integration of Renewable Energy in Refrigerated Warehouses

2015 ◽  
pp. 803-853
Author(s):  
Kostadin Fikiin ◽  
Borislav Stankov
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Food Storage ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
And Control

Refrigerated warehouses are large energy consumers and account for a significant portion of the global energy demand. Nevertheless the opportunity for integration of renewable resources in the energy supply of large cold storage facilities is very often unjustifiably neglected, whereas the employment of renewable energy for many other industrial and comfort applications is actively promoted and explored. In that context, the purpose of this chapter is to bridge the existing gap by raising the public awareness of stakeholders, researchers, practicing engineers and policy makers about the availability of a number of smart engineering solutions and control strategies to exploit renewables of different nature (solar, wind, geothermal, biogas, etc.) in the food storage sector, as well as by calling the readers' attention to the specialised knowledge in the matter, which has been published so far.

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