scholarly journals LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF LONGSHORE SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

2020 ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Amin Reza Zarifsanayei ◽  
Amir Etemad-Shahidi ◽  
Nick Cartwright ◽  
Darrell Strauss
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
Longshore Sediment Transport ◽  
Coastal Sediment Transport ◽  
Wave Energy Flux

Due to climate change impacts on atmospheric circulation, global and regional wave climate in many coastal regions around the world might change. Any changes in wave parameters could result in significant changes in wave energy flux, the patterns of coastal sediment transport, and coastal evolution. Although some studies have tried to address the potential impacts of climate change on longshore sediment transport (LST) patterns, they did not sufficiently consider the uncertainties arising from different sources in the projections. In this study, the uncertainty associated with the choice of model used for the estimation of LST is examined. The models were applied to a short stretch of coastline located in Northern Gold Coast, Australia, where a huge volume of sediment is transported along the coast annually. The ensemble of results shows that the future mean annual and monthly LST rate might decrease by about 11 percent, compared to the baseline period. The results also show that uncertainty associated with LST estimation is significant. Hence, it is proposed that this uncertainty, in addition to that from other sources, should be considered to quantify the contribution of each source in total uncertainty. In this way, a probabilistic-based framework can be developed to provide more meaningful output applicable to long-term coastal planningRecorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/3CGU9RcGYjE

scholarly journals SIMULATION OF LONG-TERM SHORELINE CHANGE DRIVEN BY LONGSHORE AND CROSS-SHORE SEDIMENT TRANSPORT

2020 ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Yan Ding ◽  
Sung-Chan Kim ◽  
Richard B. Styles ◽  
Rusty L. Permenter
Keyword(s):  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Shoreline Change ◽  
Breaking Wave ◽  
Beach Profile ◽  
Shoreline Evolution ◽  
Longshore Sediment Transport ◽  
Wave Energy Flux ◽  
Semi Empirical ◽  
Evolution Modeling

Driven by wave and current, sediment transport alongshore and cross-shore induces shoreline changes in coasts. Estimated by breaking wave energy flux, longshore sediment transport in littoral zone has been studied for decades. Cross-shore sediment transport can be significant in a gentle-slope beach and a barred coast due to bar migration. Short-term beach profile evolution (typically for a few days or weeks) has been successfully simulated by reconstructing nonlinear wave shape in nearshore zone (e.g. Hsu et al 2006, Fernandez-Mora et al. 2015). However, it is still lack of knowledge on the relationship between cross-shore sediment transport and long-term shoreline evolution. Based on the methodology of beach profile evolution modeling, a semi-empirical closure model is developed for estimating phase-average net cross-shore sediment transport rate induced by waves, currents, and gravity. This model has been implemented into GenCade, the USACE shoreline evolution model.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Wave Dynamics at Vougot Beach, France

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1009
Author(s):  
Pushpa Dissanayake ◽  
Marissa L. Yates ◽  
Serge Suanez ◽  
France Floc’h ◽  
Knut Krämer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Shear Stress ◽  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Bed Shear Stress ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Wave Dynamics ◽  
Waves And Currents

Wave dynamics contribute significantly to coastal hazards and were thus investigated at Vougot Beach by simulating both historical and projected future waves considering climate change impacts. The historical period included a major storm event. This period was projected to the future using three globally averaged sea level rise (SLR) scenarios for 2100, and combined SLR and wave climate scenarios for A1B, A2, and B1 emissions paths of the IPCC. The B1 wave climate predicts an increase in the occurrence of storm events. The simulated waves in all scenarios showed larger relative changes at the beach than in the nearshore area. The maximum increase of wave energy for the combined SLR and wave scenarios was 95%, while only 50% for the SLR-only scenarios. The effective bed shear stress from waves and currents showed different spatial variability than that of the wave height, emphasizing the importance of interactions between nearshore waves and currents. Increases in the effective bed shear stress (combined scenarios: up to 190%, and SLR-only scenarios: 35%) indicate that the changes in waves and currents will likely have significant impacts on the nearshore sediment transport. This work emphasizes that combined SLR and future wave climate scenarios need to be used to evaluate future changes in local hydrodynamics and their impacts. These results provide preliminary insights into potential future wave dynamics at Vougot Beach under different climate change scenarios. Further studies are necessary to generalize the results by investigating the wave dynamics during storm events with different hydrodynamical conditions and to evaluate potential changes in sediment transport and morphological evolution due to climate change.

scholarly journals LONGHORE SEDIMENT TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT BASED ON WAVE SYSTEMS

2020 ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Alonso ◽  
Sebastian Solari
Keyword(s):  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Coastal Management ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Comprehensive Assessment ◽  
Coastal Morphology ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Longshore Sediment Transport ◽  
Main Factors

Longshore sediment transport (LST) is one of the main factors influencing coastal morphology and its comprehensive assessment constitutes a valuable input for coastal management. In this work, the concept of long-term wave systems is used to analyze the wave climate of the Uruguayan Atlantic coast with focus on its impact on LST. It is shown how LST rate estimation changes by consider wave spectral partitions, identifies which wave systems contributes most to LST and provides a more detailed insight on its intra- and inter- annual variability and its correlation with climatic indexes.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link):

scholarly journals Amplified Impact of Climate Change on Fine-Sediment Delivery to a Subsiding Coast, Humboldt Bay, California

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. Curtis ◽  
Lorraine E. Flint ◽  
Michelle A. Stern ◽  
Jack Lewis ◽  
Randy D. Klein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Sediment Delivery ◽  
Beneficial Reuse ◽  
Coastal Margin

AbstractIn Humboldt Bay, tectonic subsidence exacerbates sea-level rise (SLR). To build surface elevations and to keep pace with SLR, the sediment demand created by subsidence and SLR must be balanced by an adequate sediment supply. This study used an ensemble of plausible future scenarios to predict potential climate change impacts on suspended-sediment discharge (Qss) from fluvial sources. Streamflow was simulated using a deterministic water-balance model, and Qss was computed using statistical sediment-transport models. Changes relative to a baseline period (1981–2010) were used to assess climate impacts. For local basins that discharge directly to the bay, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 27% for the mid-century (2040–2069) and 58% for the end-of-century (2070–2099). For the Eel River, a regional sediment source that discharges sediment-laden plumes to the coastal margin, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 53% for the mid-century and 99% for the end-of-century. Climate projections of increased precipitation and streamflow produced amplified increases in the regional sediment supply that may partially or wholly mitigate sediment demand caused by the combined effects of subsidence and SLR. This finding has important implications for coastal resiliency. Coastal regions with an increasing sediment supply may be more resilient to SLR. In a broader context, an increasing sediment supply from fluvial sources has global relevance for communities threatened by SLR that are increasingly building resiliency to SLR using sediment-based solutions that include regional sediment management, beneficial reuse strategies, and marsh restoration.

scholarly journals Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1712) ◽  
pp. 1661-1669 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Alonso ◽  
Menno J. Bouma ◽  
Mercedes Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Nonlinear Response ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Human Model ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
East African ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970–2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito–human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.

scholarly journals Will Climate Change Exacerbate the Economic Damage of Flood to Agricultural Production? A Case Study of Rice in Ha Tinh Province, Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pham Quy Giang ◽  
Tran Trung Vy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Economic Damage

In developing countries in general and in Vietnam in particular, flood induced economic loss of agriculture is a serious concern since the livelihood of large populations depends on agricultural production. The objective of this study was to examine if climate change would exacerbate flood damage to agricultural production with a case study of rice production in Huong Son District of Ha Tinh Province, North-central Vietnam. The study applied a modeling approach for the prediction. Extreme precipitation and its return periods were calculated by the Generalized Extreme Value distribution method using historical daily observations and output of the MRI-CGCM3 climate model. The projected extreme precipitation data was then employed as an input of the Mike Flood model for flood modeling. Finally, an integrated approach employing flood depth and duration and crop calendar was used for the prediction of potential economic loss of rice production. Results of the study show that in comparison with the baseline period, an increase of 49.14% in the intensity of extreme precipitation was expected, while the frequency would increase 5 times by 2050s. As a result, the seriousness of floods would increase under climate change impacts as they would become more intensified, deeper and longer, and consequently the economic loss of rice production would increase significantly. While the level of peak flow was projected to rise nearly 1 m, leading the area of rice inundated to increase by 12.61%, the value of damage would rise by over 21% by 2050s compared to the baseline period. The findings of the present study are useful for long-term agricultural and infrastructural planning in order to tackle potential flooding threats to agricultural production under climate change impacts.

scholarly journals Satellites, Self-reports, and Submersion: Exposure to Floods in Bangladesh

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 232-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Guiteras ◽  
Amir Jina ◽  
A. Mushfiq Mobarak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Objective Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Flood Exposure ◽  
Self Reports ◽  
Term Variation

A burgeoning “Climate-Economy” literature has uncovered many effects of changes in temperature and precipitation on economic activity, but has made considerably less progress in modeling the effects of other associated phenomena, like natural disasters. We develop new, objective data on floods, focusing on Bangladesh. We show that rainfall and self-reported exposure are weak proxies for true flood exposure. These data allow us to study adaptation, giving accurate measures of both long-term averages and short term variation in exposure. This is important in studying climate change impacts, as people will not only experience new exposures, but also experience them differently.

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