scholarly journals Mathematical Model Considering Effect of COVID-19 Contact-Confirming Application (COCOA) and “GoTo Travel Campaign”

2021 ◽  
Vol 2090 (1) ◽  
pp. 012022
Author(s):  
Ryota Maehashi ◽  
Rian Nagaoka ◽  
Yuka Nigoshi ◽  
Yuga Hayashi ◽  
Ryuhei Moriguchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Positive Change ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Strong Tendency ◽  
Ideal Situation ◽  
The Government ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
And Control ◽  
First Time

Abstract In the end of 2019, the emergence of COVID-19 was reported and confirmed for the first time, and it triggered an international pandemic. In Japan, the strong tendency to spread of infection is still continuing. The Japanese Government has been raised two concepts to overcome this difficulty. One is the thorough measures to control of the spread of infection and the other is the economic recovery. The government has carried out the corresponding two policies: the use of COVID-19 Contact-Confirming Application (COCOA) and the application of “GoTo Travel Campaign”. We focus on these two policies and study an ideal situation, which enables us to balance more economic recovery and control of the spread of infection. To pursue this goal, we propose a mathematical model to estimate these policies’s effects and conduct simulations of 28 scenarios. In addition, we analyze each result of the simulation and investigate characteristics of each situation. As a result, we clearly find that it required that not only the increasing the using rate of COCOA but also a positive change of people’s behaviors and awareness.

scholarly journals Lifting of Social Distancing Measures: Perspectives From Vietnam

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trang H.D. Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Medical Products ◽  
Domestic Tourism ◽  
The Government

ABSTRACT While many nations are struggling to slow the transmission rate of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Vietnam has seen no new locally acquired cases since April 16. After implementing 22 d of nationwide social distancing, on April 23, the government of Vietnam announced the easing of social distancing measures. This allows the country to restart its socio-economic activities in a gradual, prudent manner. Domestic tourism and exports of agricultural and anti-COVID-19 medical products take priority over the other sectors in this postpandemic economic recovery. Importantly, the country needs to stay vigilant on the fight against the disease to prevent a possibility of another outbreak.

Voting, violence and violations: peasant voices on the flawed elections in Hadiya, Southern Ethiopia

2001 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 697-716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kjetil Tronvoll
Keyword(s):  
Power Relations ◽  
Southern Ethiopia ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Political Campaigning ◽  
The People ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up ◽  
And Control ◽  
First Time ◽  
Hadiya Zone

This article presents peasant grievances on the flawed 2000 elections in Hadiya zone, southern Ethiopia. For the first time in Ethiopia's electoral history, an opposition party managed to win the majority of the votes in one administrative zone. In the run-up to the elections, government cadres and officials intimidated and harassed candidates and members from the opposition Hadiya National Democratic Organisation (HNDO). Several candidates and members were arrested and political campaigning was restricted. On election day, widespread attempts at rigging the election took place, and violence was exerted in several places by government cadres and the police. Despite the government's attempt to curtail and control the elections in Hadiya, the opposition party mobilised the people in a popular protest to challenge the government party's political hegemony – and won. If this is an indication of a permanent shift of power relations in Hadiya, it is however, too early to say.

China may struggle to achieve a job-rich GDP recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for China following the lifting of the COVID-19 lockdown. Significance The economic uncertainties due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic made this year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) unusually important. After GDP fell 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the government for the first time announced no annual GDP growth target, indicating extreme uncertainty over the extent and durability of recovery. Impacts China’s industrial output will outpace export demand; trade tensions such as anti-dumping cases could rise. US-China tensions will rise, but both sides will be warier than last year of major moves that could jeopardise economic recovery. China’s commitment to high military spending is undiminished by its economic troubles; defence spending will rise as a share of GDP.

scholarly journals A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Using Fractional Derivative: Outbreak in India with Dynamics of Transmission and Control

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amjad S. Shaikh ◽  
Iqbal N. Shaikh ◽  
Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Fixed Point Theory ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Approximation Technique ◽  
Transform Method ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control

Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) detected on Jan 30, 2020, in India, the number of cases rapidly increased to 3819 cases including 106 deaths as of 5 April 2020. Taking this into account, in the present work, we are studying a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission fractional-order COVID-19 model for simulating the potential transmission with the thought of individual social response and control measures by the government. The real data available about infectious cases from $14^{th}$ March to $26^{th}$ March 2020 is analysed and accordingly various parameters of the model are estimated or fitted. The Picard successive approximation technique and Banach's fixed point theory have been used for verification of the existence and stability criteria of the model. Numerical computations are done utilizing the iterative Laplace transform method. In the end, we illustrate the obtained results graphically. The purpose of this study is to estimate the effectiveness of preventive measures, predicting future outbreaks and potential control strategies using the mathematical model.

scholarly journals Mathematical model of transmission dynamics with mitigation and health measures for SARS-CoV-2 infection in European countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shweta Sankhwar ◽  
Narender Kumar ◽  
Ravins Dohare
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Two Phases ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
And Control

Abstract The pandemic of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) continue to pose a serious threat to global health resulting in disease COVID-19. No specific drug or vaccine is available against this infection. Therefore, the prevention is only way to reduce the spread of infection. The pandemic needs an enhanced mathematical model, therefore, we propose a SEIAJR compartmental mathematical model to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0 ) and the transmission dynamics of four European countries (Germany, United Kingdom, Switzerland and Spain). The proposed mathematical model incorporates mitigation and healthcare measures as recommended by ECDC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control). The simulation of proposed model is done in two phases. First-phase simulation estimates basic reproduction number and mitigation rate according to active infected cases in all four European countries. R0 estimate 2.82 - 3.3 for considered European countries. Second-phase simulation predicts the dynamics of infection on the estimated R0 with varying mitigation rate and constant healthcare rate. This study predicts that no more mitigation is required to invade the infection. The current mitigation and healthcare measures are enough to stop the propogation of infection, however, infection would last by end of July 2020. The developed mathematical model would also be applicable to portray the infection trasmission dynamics for other geographical regions with varying parameters.

scholarly journals Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore

2007 ◽  
Vol 136 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. N. BURATTINI ◽  
M. CHEN ◽  
A. CHOW ◽  
F. A. B. COUTINHO ◽  
K. T. GOH ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Mixed Strategy ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Dengue Infection ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Other ◽  
Effective Strategy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Dengue Epidemics

SUMMARYNotified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13 817 cases) and the reason for such an increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004–2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient in preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.

‘Disability’ and ‘Discrimination’ in the Context of Disability Discrimination Legislation: The UK and Australian Acts Compared

2000 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 203-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Functional Limitations ◽  
Public Life ◽  
The Other ◽  
Disability Discrimination ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Positive Feature ◽  
The Government ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time

Both the Commonwealth of Australia and the UK now have in place anti-disability discrimination legislation. In the example of the Commonwealth, that legislation reflected a positive desire by the community and the government to eliminate disability discrimination in public life. In the UK on the other hand, the legislation introduced represented something of a compromise between activists, who wanted stronger legislation, and the government who up until that point had wanted none. Historically anti-discrimination legislation in both jurisdictions has been similarly structured; containing similar grounds of discrimination and also a similar conceptualisation of discrimination. However, partly no doubt as a result of government antipathy, the UK model of legislation departs from the model used in earlier antidiscrimination legislation in a number of key respects: the legislation contains a new conceptualisation of discrimination; and, it introduces for the first time in antidiscrimination legislation a general ‘defence’ of justification for all forms of discrimination. Additionally, the definition of ‘disability’ employed in the Act is very narrow, concentrating upon a person's functional limitations in relation to ‘normal’ activities. The purpose of this article is to contrast the concepts of ‘disability’ employed in the Acts, and to consider the effectiveness of both the ‘traditional’ and the new conceptualization of discrimination contained in the Commonwealth and UK Acts respectively. While disability under the UK Act is reflective of the government's antipathy to the new legislation, the reconceptualization of discrimination is, on the whole, a positive feature, moving away from the principle that equality equals ‘sameness’, to one which gives recognition to disadvantage and places an explicit, positive, obligation on employers to redress that disadvantage. Other areas of difference between the two Acts — such as in the area of ‘defenses’, the development of enforceable Standards (under the Commonwealth Act), and methods of enforcement will be covered in a subsequent article.

Some epidemiological aspects of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in Rostov region

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 21-29
Author(s):  
A.R. Litovko ◽  
◽  
T.I. Tverdokhlebova ◽  
E.V. Kovalev ◽  
G.V. Karpushchenko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Rights Protection ◽  
Human Wellbeing ◽  
Rostov Region ◽  
Consumer Rights ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Government ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
Epidemiological Situation

Material and methods. We evaluated the incidence of COVID-19 in Rostov region. The data was obtained from the Rostov Department of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing, Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology of Rostov region, and Rostov Research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology. In addition to that, we monitored the information on the official websites of the Government of Rostov region and regional COVID-19 headquarters. The SEIR analytical platform was used to build a mathematical model for predicting the spread of infection in Rostov region. Results. We have evaluated the epidemiological situation of COVID-19 in Rostov region and analyzed the effectiveness of preventive and anti-epidemic measures with the possibility of predicting the development of the epidemic process in the region. Key words: coronavirus infection, prognosis, anti-epidemic measures, epidemiological situation, COVID-19

A Mathematical Model for the Study of Effectiveness in Therapy in Tuberculosis Taking into Account Associated Diseases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erick Delgado Moya ◽  
Alain Pietrus ◽  
Sergio Muniz Oliva
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Population Based ◽  
The Other ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Tb Treatment ◽  
Mdr Tb ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hiv Aids

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global health problem. We present a deterministic mathematical model for the study of the effectiveness of therapy in TB to determine the impact of HIV/AIDS and diabetes in the spread of the disease and drug resistance. Our model takes into account the relationships between TB, HIV/AIDS, and diabetes and we also study the behavior of multidrug-resistance (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR-TB). The main mathematical and epidemiology features of the model are investigated. The basic reproduction number (R0) in the different sub-populations (diabetics, HIV/AIDS, and those who do not suffer from these diseases) was studied. Conditions were obtained on the model parameters to know when the growth of the parameters associated with resistance to TB treatment has a negative impact on the transmission of TB in the population based on the R0 study. It is concluded that MDR-TB and XDR-TB have a negative impact on TB control. Computational simulations show that a greater number of drug-sensitive TB cases with respect to MDR-TB and XDR-TB cases are reported in the infected compartments, and MDR-TB cases surpass XDR-TB cases, except in the diabetes sub-population, which has a growth of XDR-TB cases that surpasses the other compartments of infected of all the sub-populations. It was shown when comparing the sub-populations of diabetes and HIV/AIDS, that although the diabetes sub-population reports a higher number of XDR-TB cases, a lower number of drug-sensitive TB and MDR-TB cases, have a greater number of recovered cases with respect to HIV/AIDS sub-population at the end of the study period. Also, when the XDR-TB cases in the diabetes sub-population exceed the other infected compartments, there is a growth of recovered TB in this subpopulation. The results suggest that it is necessary to increase the attention to the diabetic population, which include improved glucose control, increase the number of specialized medical consultations to achieve permanence in TB treatment and control the entry of individuals to the diabetic compartments by tests of diabetes.

scholarly journals State Intervention/Bailout and Economic Stabilisation in Nigeria: Some Lessons from the United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 71-78
Author(s):  
Deinibiteim Monimah Harry ◽  
Winston Madume
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
State Intervention ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Specific Time ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nigerian Government ◽  
The Government

Abstract The study examined the nature of state intervention during economic and/or financial crisis, focusing on Nigeria and US. These two nations have embarked on various kinds of bailouts to stabilize their economies and move their nations on the path of economic recovery and growth. However, the bailout effort is more successful in the US than Nigeria. This is largely due to the approach adopted in these countries. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to ascertain the extent to which government invention has helped stabilize the Nigerian economy, when compared with the experience of the United States. The study revealed that in the US every state intervention/ bailout is approved by congress through legislation, therefore well-guided in its administration or execution, with specific time lines. On the other hand, in Nigeria bailouts are by “executive fiat”, as a result they suffer from poor execution. Hence, the paper concluded that state intervention/bailout in Nigeria has not been very successful because of the approach adopted by the government. The study recommended that subsequently, every bailout from the Nigerian government should be a product of an Act of Parliament, bailout schemes should have specific tools for measuring performance and be guided by specific lines, among others.

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