Are Loneliness and Social Isolation Equal Threats to Health and Well-being? An Outcome Wide Longitudinal Approach

The detrimental effects of loneliness and social isolation on health and well-being outcomes are well documented. In response, governments, corporations, and community-based organizations have begun leveraging emerging tools to create interventions and policies aimed at reducing loneliness and social isolation at-scale. However, these efforts are frequently hampered by a key knowledge gap: when attempting to alleviate specific health and well-being outcomes, decision-makers are unsure whether to target loneliness, social isolation, or both. Participants (N=13,752) were from the Health and Retirement Study- a diverse nationally representative, and longitudinal sample of U.S. adults aged > 50 years. We examined how changes in loneliness and social isolation over a 4-year follow-up period (from t0:2008/2010 to t1:2012/2014) were associated with 32 indicators of physical-, behavioral-, and psychosocial-health outcomes 4-years later (t2:2016/2018). We used, multiple logistic-, linear-, and generalized-linear regression models, and adjusted for sociodemographics, personality traits, pre-baseline levels of both exposures (loneliness and social isolation), and all outcomes (t0:2008/2010). After adjusting for a wide range of covariates, we observed that both loneliness and social isolation have similar effects on physical health outcomes and health behaviors, whereas loneliness is a stronger predictor of psychological outcomes. In particular, behavioral dimensions of the social isolation measure (i.e., participation in social/religious activities, social interaction frequency) were most strongly associated with the largest number of health and well-being outcomes, including all-cause mortality. Loneliness and social isolation have independent effects on various health and well-being outcomes, thus, should be distinct targets for interventions aimed at improving the health and well-being.

Infection inhibiting effect of RT-PCR testing-isolation in COVID-19 - a case study of Hiroshima and Fukuoka in Japan -

A simple method of estimating the effect of reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing-isolation on the restraint of infection of COVID-19 is proposed. The effect is expressed as the ratio χ of the reproductive number to that in the case that no isolation measure would be taken. The method was applied in the case of the third infection wave (from December, 2020 to February, 2021) of Hiroshima and Fukuoka in Japan. The ratio χ was estimated to be 0.78 to 0.84 and 0.86 to 0.9 in Hiroshima and Fukuoka, respectively. It is also shown that the reduction of χ by 0.07 would have reduced at least 50% of total infected patients during the third infection wave in Fukuoka.

Scale-Dependent Point Selection Methods for Web Maps

In cartographic generalization, the selection is an often-used method to adjust information density in a map. This paper deals with methods for selecting point features for a specific scale with numerical attributes, such as population, elevation, or visitors. With the Label Grid approach and the method of Functional Importance, two existing approaches are described, which have not been published in the scientific literature so far. They are explained and illustrated in the method chapter for better understanding. Furthermore, a new approach based on the Discrete Isolation measure is introduced. It combines the spatial position and the attribute's value and is defined as the minimum distance to the nearest point with a higher value. All described selection methods are implemented and made available as Plugins named “Point selection algorithms” for QGIS. Based on this implementation, the three methods are compared regarding runtime, parameterization, legibility, and generalization degree. Finally, recommendations are given on which data and use cases the approaches are suitable. We see digital maps with multiple scales as the main application of those methods. The possibilities of labeling the selected points are not considered within the scope of this work.

24 Loneliness, Social Isolation and Frailty Among Older Adults in England: Results From the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Introduction Ten percent of over 65 s and between a quarter and half of over 85 s are frail. Loneliness and social isolation are associated with increased falls, rates of hospitalisation and mortality. Lonely and socially isolated older adults may also be at risk of frailty. We examined the relationship between loneliness, social isolation and incident frailty among older adults in England longitudinally over 12 years. Methods The study sample are 9,171 older adults aged ≥50 years participating in a population representative longitudinal panel survey, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Waves 2–8. To define frailty across the biannual waves, we used the Frailty Index (FI), analysed continuously and into categories (FI ≤0.08 non-frail, 0.08–0.25 pre-frail and ≥ 0.25–1 frail). We used baseline (Wave 2): loneliness measure using the UCLA 3-item loneliness scale; social isolation measure using previously reported method (Banks et al. The Institute for Fiscal Studies. 2006.). Both were categorised into low/medium/high. To examine relationships, we used linear mixed methods modelling (for the continuous FI), and Cox proportional hazard model (for the categorical FI). Results Loneliness (β = 0.023; 95% CI = 0.022, 0.025) and social isolation (β = 0.007; 95% CI = 0.003, 0.010) were significantly associated with increased FI, after adjusting for cofounders (gender, age, marital status, smoking status and wealth). There was a 60% greater relative risk of belonging to the frail class with a medium loneliness score compared to low (HR = 1.570; 95% CI 1.492, 1.652) and a 160% greater relative risk with high loneliness score compared to low (HR = 2.621; 95% CI 2.488, 2.761). Although less pronounced, there was a 1% greater relative risk of developing frailty with a medium social isolation score compared to low (HR = 1.010, 95% CI 1.010, 1.197) and a 30% greater relative risk with high social isolation score compared to low (HR = 1.267; 95% CI 1.154, 1.390). Conclusions Our research indicates both loneliness and social isolation increase risk of developing frailty, expanding on previous evidence. This provides further support to the importance of understanding approaches to promote social inclusion of older adults.

Self-organized wavy infection curve of COVID-19

Exploiting the SIQR model for COVID-19, I show that the wavy infection curve in Japan is the result of fluctuation of policy on isolation measure imposed by the government and obeyed by citizens. Assuming the infection coefficient be a two-valued function of the number of daily confirmed new cases, I show that when the removal rate of infected individuals is between these two values, the wavy infection curve is self-organized. On the basis of the infection curve, I classify the outbreak of COVID-19 into five types and show that these differences can be related to the relative magnitude of the transmission coefficient and the quarantine rate of infected individuals.

VIOLENCE AGAINST CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS: NOTIFICATION AND ALERT IN TIMES OF PANDEMIC

ABSTRACT Objective: Social isolation is currently identified as the best way to prevent the infection by the new coronavirus. However, for some social groups, such as children and adolescents, this measure carries a contradiction: the home, which should be the safest place for them, is also a frequent environment of a sad aggravation: domestic violence. This study aims to evaluate the notifications of interpersonal/self-inflicted violence available in the Information System for Notifiable Diseases in the State of Santa Catarina (southern Brazil), for the juvenile age group, before and during the new coronavirus pandemics. Methods: Cross-sectional, descriptive study of violence against children and adolescents (from 0 to 19 years) notified by health professionals by completing and entering the occurrence in the Information System for Notifiable Diseases of the State of Santa Catarina in 11 weeks in which the social isolation measure was instituted as mandatory, comparing with the same period before this measure. Results: During the study period, 136 municipalities in Santa Catarina made 1,851 notifications. There was a decrease of 55.3% of them in the isolation period, and the difficulties encountered in seeking protection and assistance institutions were listed. Conclusions: The society needs to be aware of possible cases of violence in the children and adolescent population. It is important to provide accessible, effective, and safe ways for complaints and notifications, as well as a quick response to the cases, aiming at protecting victims and minimizing damages to prevent the perpetuation of the violence.

On the use of growth models for forecasting epidemic outbreaks with application to COVID-19 data

The initial phase dynamics of an epidemic without containment measures is commonly well modeled using exponential growth models. However, in the presence of containment measures, the exponential model becomes less appropriate. Under the implementation of an isolation measure for detected infectives, we propose to model epidemic dynamics by fitting a flexible growth model curve to reported positive cases and to infer the overall epidemic dynamics by introducing information on the detection/testing effort and recovery and death rates. The resulting modeling approach is close to the SIQR (Susceptible- Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered) model framework. We focused on predicting the peaks (time and size) in positive cases, actives cases and new infections. We applied the approach to data from the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. Fits on limited data before the observed peaks illustrate the ability of the flexible growth model to approach the estimates from the whole data.

Covid-19 pandemic and the motivations for demanding health service in indigenous villages

ABSTRACT Objective: To discuss the fundamental aspects in the establishment of preventive measures to tackle covid-19 among indigenous people in view of the motivations for seeking health care in villages of the Terra Indígena Buriti, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Methods: Theoretical-reflective study based on assumptions of the National Health System and previous ethnographic research that enabled the identification of the motivations to seek health care in Buriti villages. Results: Indigenous people seek health centers for health care programs assistance, treatment of cases they cannot resolve and to chat. Such motivations were the basis for discussing the indigenization process in the confrontation of the new coronavirus pandemic in indigenous lands. Final considerations: The motivations for seeking health care show the physical and social vulnerability of the Terena ethnicity. The effectiveness of the social isolation measure in the villages depends on the dialogue with indigenous leaders, professional engagement and intersectoral actions.