Modelling upper respiratory viral load dynamics of SARS-CoV-2

Relationships between viral load, severity of illness, and transmissibility of virus are fundamental to understanding pathogenesis and devising better therapeutic and prevention strategies for COVID-19. Here we present within-host modelling of viral load dynamics observed in the upper respiratory tract (URT), drawing upon 2172 serial measurements from 605 subjects, collected from 17 different studies. We developed a mechanistic model to describe viral load dynamics and host response and contrast this with simpler mixed-effects regression analysis of peak viral load and its subsequent decline. We observed wide variation in URT viral load between individuals, over 5 orders of magnitude, at any given point in time since symptom onset. This variation was not explained by age, sex, or severity of illness, and these variables were not associated with the modelled early or late phases of immune-mediated control of viral load. We explored the application of the mechanistic model to identify measured immune responses associated with the control of the viral load. Neutralising antibodies correlated strongly with modelled immune-mediated control of viral load amongst subjects who produced neutralising antibodies. Our models can be used to identify host and viral factors which control URT viral load dynamics, informing future treatment and transmission blocking interventions.

A novel assessment method for COVID-19 humoral immunity duration using serial measurements in naturally-infected and vaccinated subjects.

Background: It is crucial for medical decision-making and vaccination strategies to collect information on sustainability of immune responses after infection or vaccination, and how long-lasting antibodies against SARS-COV-2 could provide a humoral and protective immunity, preventing reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 or its variants. The aim of this study is to present a novel method to quantitatively measure and monitor the diversity of SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody profiles over time. Methods: Two collections of serum samples were used in this study: A collection from 20 naturally-infected subjects (follow-ups to 1 year) and a collection from 83 subjects vaccinated with one or two doses of Pfizer BioNtech vaccine (BNT162b2/BNT162b2) (follow-ups to 6 months). The Multi-SARS-CoV-2 assay, a multiparameter serology test, developed for the serological confirmation of past-infections was used to determine the reactivity of six different SARS-CoV-2 antigens. For each patient sample, 3 dilutions (1/50, 1/400 and 1/3200) were defined as an optimal set over the six antigens and their respective linear ranges, allowing accurate quantitation of the corresponding six specific antibodies. Nonlinear mixed-effects modelling was applied to convert intensity readings from 3 determined dilutions to a single quantification value for each antibody. Results: Median half-life for the 20 naturally infected vs 74 vaccinated subjects (two doses) was respectively 120 vs 50 days for RBD, 127 vs 53 days for S1 and 187 vs 86 days for S2 antibodies. Respectively, 90% of the antibody concentration wanes after 158 vs 398 days for RBD, 171 vs 420 days for S1, and 225 vs 620 days for S2 after the second vaccine shot. Conclusion: The newly proposed method, based on a series of a limited number of dilutions, can convert a conventional qualitative assay into a quantitative assay. This conversion helps define the sustainability of specific immune responses against each relevant viral antigen and can help in defining the protection characteristics after an infection or a vaccination.

Non-invasive Measurement of Pulmonary Gas Exchange Efficiency: The Oxygen Deficit

The efficiency of pulmonary gas exchange has long been assessed using the alveolar-arterial difference in PO2, the A-aDO2, a construct developed by Richard Riley ~70years ago. However, this measurement is invasive (requiring an arterial blood sample), time consuming, expensive, uncomfortable for the patients, and as such not ideal for serial measurements. Recent advances in the technology now provide for portable and rapidly responding measurement of the PO2 and PCO2 in expired gas, which combined with the well-established measurement of arterial oxygen saturation via pulse oximetry (SpO2) make practical a non-invasive surrogate measurement of the A-aDO2, the oxygen deficit. The oxygen deficit is the difference between the end-tidal PO2 and the calculated arterial PO2 derived from the SpO2 and taking into account the PCO2, also measured from end-tidal gas. The oxygen deficit shares the underlying basis of the measurement of gas exchange efficiency that the A-aDO2 uses, and thus the two measurements are well-correlated (r2~0.72). Studies have shown that the new approach is sensitive and can detect the age-related decline in gas exchange efficiency associated with healthy aging. In patients with lung disease the oxygen deficit is greatly elevated compared to normal subjects. The portable and non-invasive nature of the approach suggests potential uses in first responders, in military applications, and in underserved areas. Further, the completely non-invasive and rapid nature of the measurement makes it ideally suited to serial measurements of acutely ill patients including those with COVID-19, allowing patients to be closely monitored if required.

Serial Measurements of Circulating KL-6, SP-D, MMP-7, CA19-9, CA-125, CCL18, and Periostin in Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Receiving Antifibrotic Therapy: An Exploratory Study

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and inevitably fatal disease with a heterogeneous clinical course. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of circulating biomarkers in routine IPF clinical practice. We conducted an exploratory study in a cohort of 28 IPF subjects qualified for anti-fibrotic therapy with up to 24 months serial measurements of seven IPF biomarkers, including those that are well-established, Krebs von den Lungen-6 (KL-6), surfactant protein D (SP-D), matrix metalloproteinase 7 (MMP-7), and more recently introduced ones, cancer antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), cancer antigen 125 (CA-125), chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 18 (CCL18), and periostin. Among studied biomarkers, SP-D had the highest diagnostic accuracy to differentiate IPF subjects from controls, followed by MMP-7 and KL-6. At each study timepoint, KL-6 levels correlated inversely with forced vital capacity % predicted (FVC% pred.), and transfer factor of the lung for carbon monoxide % predicted (TL,CO% pred.), while SP-D levels correlated inversely with FVC% pred. and TL,CO% pred. at 24 months of anti-fibrotic therapy. Baseline KL-6 and CA19-9 concentrations were significantly elevated in patients with progressive disease in comparison to patients with stable disease. In addition, in the progressors subgroup CA19-9 concentrations significantly increased over the second year of study follow-up. In patients with progressive disease, we observed a significant inverse correlation between a change in SP-D levels and a change in FVC% pred. in the first year of treatment, whereas in the second year a significant inverse correlation between a change in KL-6 levels and a change in FVC% pred. was noted. Our study findings support the view that both well-established IPF biomarkers, including KL-6, SP-D, and MMP-7, and more recently introduced ones, like CA19-9, have the potential to support clinical practice in IPF.

High Sensitivity C-reactive Protein in Patients with Coronary Artery in-stent Restenosis: A Case-control Study

Background: Inflammation plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of In-Stent Restenosis (ISR). High sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) is positively associated with major cardiovascular events. Aim: We aimed to investigate the hsCRP inflammatory response to Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) in Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) patients with coronary ISR vs. patients without ISR. Methods: This case-control study included 80 CAD patients previously treated with drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation. Patients had Coronary Angiography (CAG) because of chest pain or equivalent symptoms and were subdivided into 2 groups. Group A (n=40) included CAD patients with ISR. Group B (n=40) included age and gender-matched controls with CAD but without ISR. Serum hsCRP levels were obtained before PCI (baseline) and 8, 16, 24 h post-PCI. Results: At baseline (before intervention/CAG), the hsCRP level was increased in the ISR group compared with the No-ISR group (p=0.007). There were 36 (90%) patients in the ISR group who had a high hsCRP (>3 mg/L) compared with 25 (62.5%) patients in the No-ISR group. Also, there was a significant relationship between high hsCRP and the ISR. Patients with ISR had higher frequencies and percentages of elevated CRP than the no-ISR control group. This difference was maintained for all measurements, baseline, after 8, 16, and 24 h (p<0.05). Repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) in the ISR group revealed that mean hsCRP differed significantly between serial measurements (p<0.001). In contrast, in the control group, the mean hsCRP did not differ significantly between the serial measurements (p=0.65). Most of our patients (n=66, 82.5%) had 1-vessel CAD disease, and the left anterior descending (LAD) coronary artery was significantly affected in 46 patients (57.5%). Management of restenosis was accomplished mainly by stenting by DES in 29 patients (72.5%). Conclusion: Patients with ISR had substantially higher pre- and post-PCI hsCRP levels than the no-ISR controls. This difference was maintained up to 24h post-PCI. Conversely, the mean hsCRP did not significantly differ at the follow-up points for the controls without ISR.

Diagnostic Performance of Serial High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin Measurements in the Emergency Setting

Serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hsTn) testing in the emergency department (ED) and the intensive cardiac care unit may assist physicians in ruling out or ruling in acute myocardial infarction (MI). There are three major algorithms proposed for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hsTnI) using serial measurements while incorporating absolute concentration changes for MI or death following ED presentation. We sought to determine the diagnostic estimates of these three algorithms and if one was superior in two different Canadian ED patient cohorts with serial hsTnI measurements. An undifferentiated ED population (Cohort-1) and an ED population with symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome (ACS; Cohort-2) were clinically managed with non-hsTn testing with the hsTnI testing performed in real-time with physicians blinded to these results (i.e., hsTnI not reported). The three algorithms evaluated were the European Society of Cardiology (ESC), the High-STEACS pathway, and the COMPASS-MI algorithm. The diagnostic estimates were derived for each algorithm for the 30-day MI/death outcome for the rule-out and rule-in arm in each cohort and compared to proposed diagnostic benchmarks (i.e., sensitivity ≥ 99.0% and specificity ≥ 90.0%) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). In Cohort-1 (n = 2966 patients, 15.3% had outcome) and Cohort-2 (n = 935 patients, 15.6% had outcome), the algorithm that obtained the highest sensitivity (97.8%; 95% CI: 96.0–98.9 and 98.6%; 95% CI: 95.1–99.8, respectively) in both cohorts was COMPASS-MI. Only Cohort-2 with both the ESC and COMPASS-MI algorithms exceeded the specificity benchmark (97.0%; 95% CI: 95.5–98.0 and 96.7%; 95% CI: 95.2–97.8, respectively). Patient selection for serial hsTnI testing will affect specificity estimates, with no algorithm achieving a sensitivity ≥ 99% for 30-day MI or death.

Contamination of single fluid-filled intragastric balloons with orogastric fluid is not associated with hyperinflation: an ex-vivo study and systematic review of literature

Background Spontaneous hyperinflation is reported to the Food and Drug Administration as a complication of intragastric balloons. It is postulated that orogastric contamination of the intragastric balloon may cause this phenomenon. We sought to investigate the effects of intentional balloon contamination with gastric contents on intragastric balloon perimeter and contents, whether methylene blue plays a role in preventing spontaneous hyperinflation, and review the available literature on spontaneous hyperinflation. Methods Four pairs of balloons with different combinations of sterile saline, orogastric contaminants, and methylene blue were incubated in a 37 °C water bath for six months to simulate physiological conditions with serial measurements of balloon perimeter. Our findings were compared against a systematic review across multiple databases to summarize the available literature. Results Balloon mean perimeter decreased from 33.5 cm ± 0.53 cm to 28.5 cm ± 0.46 cm (p < 0.0001). No significant differences were seen with the methylene blue group. Only 11 cases were found reported in the literature. Conclusions Despite contaminating intragastric balloons with gastric aspirates, hyperinflation did not occur, and other factors may be in play to account for this phenomenon, when observed. Rates of hyperinflation remain under-reported in the literature. Further controlled experiments are needed.