Online quality prediction based on the double cumulative model for multiphase batch processes with transitions

In multiphase batch processes, the final product quality prediction results depend on the common cumulative effects of all the critical phases with transitions on quality rather than a separated one. However, the common cumulative effect are rarely considered at the same time. To address this issue, a double cumulative model is proposed in this paper. The double model includes the internal cumulative model and the external cumulative model. On one hand, the critical local cumulative quality is introduced to isolate the local cumulative effect of different phases and transitions in the internal cumulative model. Especially, for transitions modeling, an average process trajectories method based on the dominant phase identification is developed to deal with the dynamic and uncertainty. On the other hand, the correlation of different cumulative models is extracted by constructing the external cumulative model. In this way, the cumulative effect of all the phases and transitions are considered simultaneously. The proposed method is applied to penicillin fermentation. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method over the competing models.

The Fuel of Scientific Progress

This chapter addresses a classic topic: the advancement of science. In the wake of Kuhn’s groundbreaking work, positivist philosophy of science was replaced by a more realistic and historically informed depiction of science. However, over half a century has now passed since the publication of Structure. Despite valiant attempts, we still lack a fully developed, viable replacement for the cumulative model presupposed by positivism. At the dawn of the new millennium, mainstream philosophy eventually abandoned the project of developing a grand, overarching account of science. The quest for generality was traded in for a more detailed analysis of particular disciplines and practices. The goal of this chapter is to show how the black-boxing strategy can offer a revamped formulation of scientific progress, an important topic that lies at the core of any general characterization of science, and bring it back on the philosophical main stage, where it legitimately belongs.

La réponse aux besoins affectifs et cognitifs de l’enfant : Application du modèle cumulatif à la population générale: Responding to children’s emotional and cognitive needs: Applying the cumulative model to the general population

Objectifs: Plusieurs facteurs de risque sont associés à des conduites à caractère négligent. Leur effet cumulatif, soit l’accumulation du risque indépendamment de la présence ou de l’absence de facteurs spécifiques, est toutefois méconnu. La présente étude a pour objectif de déterminer si le cumul prédit la réponse aux besoins affectifs et cognitifs de l’enfant dans la population générale et d’examiner la présence d’un seuil critique. Méthode: Un total de 1 102 figures maternelles ayant des enfants âgés de 5 à 9 ans vivant au Québec ont été questionnées par le biais d’un sondage téléphonique. La réponse aux besoins affectifs et cognitifs de l’enfant a été mesurée à l’aide d’une adaptation validée de l’échelle multidimensionnelle des conduites de négligence. Dix facteurs de risque individuels, familiaux et socioéconomiques ont été combinés afin de calculer un indice de risque cumulatif. Résultats: Les résultats montrent que l’indice cumulatif prédit la réponse aux besoins affectifs et cognitifs de l’enfant dans la population générale. Cet effet est observé pour les familles présentant au minimum deux facteurs de risque et augmente de manière importante lors d’une exposition à cinq facteurs. Conclusions: La présente étude appuie l’hypothèse du cumul, qui avait jusqu’à présent, principalement été examinée au sein d’échantillons vulnérables ou cliniques. Elle favorise une meilleure compréhension statistique des contextes qui rendent difficiles la réponse de l’environnement de l’enfant d’âge scolaire à ses besoins affectifs et cognitifs dans la population générale. Cette avancée est d’autant plus importante considérant les défis liés à l’identification des enfants à risque de voir leurs besoins négligés.

Application of Cellular Automata in Modeling Ultraviolet Water Disinfection Process

A model approach to the analysis of the susceptibility of a microorganism to UV radiation has been substantiated. Modeling of the kinetics of UV disinfection was carried out on the basis of the application of the theory of cellular automata, which makes it possible to determine the mechanism of death of a microorganism, as well as to develop recommendations for the modes of UV treatment of water. The results of modeling the kinetics of UV disinfection for the main mechanisms of the death of microorganisms are shown: the model of target damage, the cumulative model and their combination, with varying the main influencing parameters.

V. S. PODSHIVALOV’S ESSAYS IN THE MAGAZINE ‘PLEASANT AND USEFUL PASTIME’

The article discusses the essays written by V. S. Podshivalov, the editor of the Moscow University magazine Pleasant and Useful Pastime and a supporter of N. M. Karamzin. The aim of this paper is to study the poetics of the essays and to show their significance in the context of the magazine. Podshivalov’s essays serve as material for researching the problem of the formation of sentimental aesthetics on the Enlightenment basis. The structure and methodology of the article are determined by the task of complex analysis of the text in the aspects of composition, rhetorical devices, themes and literary connections. The essays can be viewed as manifestos of sentimentalism. In his writings, Podshivalov develops a sentimental personality concept. All the essays are shown to be similar in terms of composition, developing a cumulative model where homogeneous structures of motives are gradually added. These structures are usually grouped into triads based on the repetition of key words. Series of such structures are, in turn, compared with each other on the principle of antithesis. The subject matter of the essays is related to the didactic literature of the Enlightenment: they concern traditional themes such as kindness, charity or, conversely, miserliness, cruelty. Satirical types of a miser, a hypocrite or an unfair critic are exposed by contrasting them with sentimental values (a sensitive heart, privacy and a close circle of friends). Podshivalov combines two traditions: Enlightenment didacticism and sentimentalism, transferring didactic issues to the sentimental conceptual sphere. The essays contain reminiscences from the works of N. M. Karamzin published around the same time as the first parts of the magazine. References to Karamzin in the university publication strengthened his moral and literary authority. The aesthetic effect of the essays is achieved by combining two contrasting elements – simplicity of content and complexity of form.

INDONESIAN COVID-19 CASE MODELING USING GAUSSIAN EQUATION

The WHO have been setting Covid-19 as pandemic since it spread over the world including Indonesia. Modeling is needed to see the possibility of this case for raising awareness. This research had been conducted to build a model using the Gaussian equation for modeling the Covid-19 case in Indonesia to fulfill the model gap in previous research. The data acquisition is scraping from Line Siaga official account in Line chatting platform based on KEMENKES RI publication. This Modeling is yielding several models and RMS Error: a daily positive case, a daily recovery, a daily death, the cumulative positive case, the cumulative recovery, the cumulative death, a daily active case, and the cumulative active case. Modeling was started on 2 April 2020 and set parameters that want to be evaluated on 12 April 2020, and evaluating the model on 21 April 2020. The result shows that the infection could exceed 33275 cases and 4342 death. The RMS Error is increasing, the cumulative model generally 56% to 115%, 35% to 52% for daily cases, and 5% to 15% for death and recovery rate. From the RMS Error shows that the equation has not a good precission which affected by the community behaviour and also the goverment policy that could reshaping the curve quite significant. The other possible factor is the reliability of the data, there is dependency between positive case and amount of testing which leads to represents the cummulative positive case to not exactly the same in reality.

The Dual Impact of Early and Concurrent Life Stress on Adults’ Diurnal Cortisol Patterns: A Prospective Study

Major life stress often produces a flat diurnal cortisol slope, an indicator of potential long-term health problems. Exposure to stress early in childhood or the accumulation of stress across the life span may be responsible for this pattern. However, the relative impact of life stress at different life stages on diurnal cortisol is unknown. Using a longitudinal sample of adults followed from birth, we examined three models of the effect of stress exposure on diurnal cortisol: the cumulative model, the biological-embedding model, and the sensitization model. As its name implies, the cumulative model focuses on cumulative life stress. In contrast, the biological-embedding model implicates early childhood stress, and the sensitization model posits that current life stress interacts with early life stress to produce flat diurnal cortisol slopes. Our analyses are consistent with the sensitization model, as they indicate that the combination of high stress exposure early in life and high current stress predict flat diurnal cortisol slopes. These novel findings advance understanding of diurnal cortisol patterns and point to avenues for intervention.