Screening plans for SARS-CoV-2 based on sampling and rotation: An example in a European school setting

Screening plans for prevention and containment of SARS-CoV-2 infection should take into account the epidemic context, the fact that undetected infected individuals may transmit the disease and that the infection spreads through outbreaks, creating clusters in the population. In this paper, we compare through simulations the performance of six screening plans based on poorly sensitive individual tests, in detecting infection outbreaks at the level of single classes in a typical European school context. The performance evaluation is done by simulating different epidemic dynamics within the class during the four weeks following the day of the initial infection. The plans have different costs in terms of number of individual tests required for the screening and are based on recurrent evaluations on all students or subgroups of students in rotation. Especially in scenarios where the rate of contagion is high, at an equal cost, testing half of the class in rotation every week appears to be better in terms of sensitivity than testing all students every two weeks. Similarly, testing one-fourth of the students every week is comparable with testing all students every two weeks, despite the first one is a much cheaper strategy. In conclusion, we show that in the presence of natural clusters in the population, testing subgroups of individuals belonging to the same cluster in rotation may have a better performance than testing all the individuals less frequently. The proposed simulations approach can be extended to evaluate more complex screening plans than those presented in the paper.

Screening plans for SARS-CoV-2 based on sampling and rotation: an example in the school setting

Screening plans for prevention and containment of SARS-CoV-2 infection should take into account the epidemic context, the fact that undetected infected individuals may transmit the disease, and that the infection spreads through outbreaks, creating clusters in the population. In this paper, we compare the performance of six screening plans based on poorly sensitive individual tests, in detecting infection outbreaks at the level of single classes in a school context. The performance evaluation is done by simulating different epidemic dynamics within the class during the five weeks following the day of the first infection. The plans have different costs in terms of number of individual tests required for the screening and are based on recurrent evaluations on all students or subgroups of students in rotation. Especially in scenarios where the rate of contagion is high, at an equal cost, testing half of the class in rotation every week appears to be better in terms of sensitivity than testing all students every two weeks. Similarly, testing one-fourth of the students every week is comparable with testing all students every two weeks, despite the first one is a much cheaper strategy. In the presence of natural clusters in the population, testing subgroups of individuals belonging to the same cluster in rotation may have a better performance than testing all the individuals less frequently. The proposed simulations approach can be extended to evaluate more complex screening plans than those presented in the paper.

Compensatory growth in C. elegans is regulated by a thermosensitive TRP channel and increases reproductive fitness

Animals are often not growing at the maximum rate, but can compensate for a bad start of life by further increasing growth rate. While this compensatory growth is widespread, its direct fitness consequences are seldom investigated and its genetic basis is unknown. We investigated the genetic regulation, as well as fitness and lifespan consequences of compensatory growth in response to temperature, using C. elegans knockout of the thermo-sensitive TRP ion channel TRPA-1, involved in temperature recognition. We exposed juvenile worms to cold, normal or warm temperatures in order to delay or speed up development. After returning to normal temperature, we found that wild-type worms where early development was delayed, expressed compensatory growth and catched up in size, while juvenile exposure to warm temperatures expressed slowed-down growth and small size. Compensatory growth also altered the reproductive schedule towards early reproduction, so that rate-sensitive individual fitness increased even though total reproduction was unaffected. Surprisingly, no lifespan cost of compensatory growth was found. In contrast, juvenile temperature did not induce compensatory or slowed-down growth in the trpa-1 knockout mutants, and consequently did not affect fitness. We show that temperature-induced compensatory growth in C. elegans is regulated by the trpa-1 and can increase fitness.

Multicriteria Decision Support Would Avoid Overdiagnosis and Overtreatment

Population-level studies confirm the existence of significant rates of overdiagnosis and overtreatment in a number of conditions, particularly those for which the screening of asymptomatic individuals is routine. The implication is that the possibility of being overdiagnosed and/or overtreated must be mentioned as a possible harm in generating informed consent and participation from the individual invited to be screened. But how should the rates of such preference-insensitive population-level phenomena be introduced into preference-sensitive individual decision making? Three possible strategies are rejected, including the currently dominant one that involves presenting the rates relevant to overdiagnosis and overtreatment as discrete pieces of information about a single criterion (typically condition-specific mortality). Extensive quotation from a review of cancer decision aids confirms that processing this complex and isolated information is not a practical approach. However, the task is unnecessary, since an outcome-focused multicriteria decision support tool will incorporate the effects of overdiagnosis and overtreatment – along with the effects of any underdiagnosis and undertreatment.

Lossless Distributed Linear Mixed Model with Application to Integration of Heterogeneous Healthcare Data

Linear mixed models (LMMs) are commonly used in many areas including epidemiology for analyzing multi-site data with heterogeneous site-specific random effects. However, due to the regulation of protecting patients' privacy, sensitive individual patient data (IPD) are usually not allowed to be shared across sites. In this paper we propose a novel algorithm for distributed linear mixed models (DLMMs). Our proposed DLMM algorithm can achieve exactly the same results as if we had pooled IPD from all sites, hence the lossless property. The DLMM algorithm requires each site to contribute some aggregated data (AD) in only one iteration. We apply the proposed DLMM algorithm to analyze the association of length of stay of COVID-19 hospitalization with demographic and clinical characteristics using the administrative claims database from the UnitedHealth Group Clinical Research Database.

Alternatives to Social Science One

ABSTRACTThis article responds to King and Persily’s (2019) proposal for a new model of industry–academic partnership using an independent third party to mediate between firms and academics. We believe this is a reasonable proposal for highly sensitive individual-level data, but it may not be appropriate for all types of data. We explore alternative options to their proposal, including Administrative Data Research Facilities, Data Collaboratives at GovLab, and Tech Data for Social Good Initiative at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences. We believe social scientists should continue to explore, evaluate, and scale a variety of industry–academic data-sharing models.

Collaborative Metacognition in Signal Detection Decision Making

When individuals work together to make decisions in a signal detection task, they typically achieve greater sensitivity as a group than they could each achieve on their own. The present experiments investigate whether metacognitive, or Type 2, signal detection judgements would show a similar pattern of collaborative benefit. Thirty-two participants in Experiment 1 and sixty participants in Experiment 2 completed a signal detection task individually and in groups, and measures of Type 1 and Type 2 sensitivity were calculated from participants’ confidence judgments. Bayesian parameter estimates suggested that regardless of whether teams are given feedback on their performance (Experiment 1) or receive no feedback (Experiment 2), no credible differences were observed in metacognitive efficiency between the teams and the better members, nor between the teams and the worse members. These findings suggest that teams may self-assess their performance by deferring metacognitive judgments to the most metacognitively sensitive individual within the team, even without trial-by-trial feedback, rather than integrating their judgments and achieving increased metacognitive awareness of their own performance.

Secure Data Protection Using Slicing as a Confusion Technique

Data Mining deals with automatic extraction of previously unknown patterns from large amounts of data sets. These data sets typically contain sensitive individual information or critical business information, which consequently get exposed to the other parties during Data Mining activities. Secure data protection has been one of the greater concerns in data mining. Several anonymization techniques, such as generalization and bucketization, have been designed for privacy protective microdata publishing. The generalization loses considerable amount of information, especially for high dimensional data. Bucketization, on the other hand, does not prevent membership disclosure and does not apply for data that do not have a clear separation between quasi-identifying attributes and sensitive attributes. Solution to this problem is provided by we introduce a novel data anonymization technique called slicing to improve the current state of the art.

High sensitivity and interindividual variability in the response of the human circadian system to evening light

Before the invention of electric lighting, humans were primarily exposed to intense (>300 lux) or dim (<30 lux) environmental light—stimuli at extreme ends of the circadian system’s dose–response curve to light. Today, humans spend hours per day exposed to intermediate light intensities (30–300 lux), particularly in the evening. Interindividual differences in sensitivity to evening light in this intensity range could therefore represent a source of vulnerability to circadian disruption by modern lighting. We characterized individual-level dose–response curves to light-induced melatonin suppression using a within-subjects protocol. Fifty-five participants (aged 18–30) were exposed to a dim control (<1 lux) and a range of experimental light levels (10–2,000 lux for 5 h) in the evening. Melatonin suppression was determined for each light level, and the effective dose for 50% suppression (ED50) was computed at individual and group levels. The group-level fitted ED50 was 24.60 lux, indicating that the circadian system is highly sensitive to evening light at typical indoor levels. Light intensities of 10, 30, and 50 lux resulted in later apparent melatonin onsets by 22, 77, and 109 min, respectively. Individual-level ED50 values ranged by over an order of magnitude (6 lux in the most sensitive individual, 350 lux in the least sensitive individual), with a 26% coefficient of variation. These findings demonstrate that the same evening-light environment is registered by the circadian system very differently between individuals. This interindividual variability may be an important factor for determining the circadian clock’s role in human health and disease.

Emily Dickinson po polsku

The article traces Polish translations of Dickinson’s poetry preceding and following the publication in the nineteen nineties of 200 poems by Emily Dickinson translated by Stanisław Barańczak. It comments on some Polish poets’ response to Dickinson in their own works and points to the growing body of publications online of private selections from Dickinson’s poems previously translated by established Polish poets (mostly Barańczak or Marjańska) as well as translations and original poems inspired by Dickinson’s work authored by less known poets, amateur translators and lovers of poetry. The article suggests that the increased Polish interest in Dickinson’s work is not only a kind of domino effect following Barańczak’s impressive translations. It also results from the growth of interest in translation studies and skills and must be related, too, to the fact that her poetry of private sensibility confronted with a dramatically changing world resonates with contemporary experience of the sensitive individual.