Study on Posbist Systems

The probability theory, in general, with the help of the dichotomous state develops the theory of reliability. Recently, the fuzzy reliability has been developed based on the concept of possibility distribution and fuzzy-state assumption. In this paper, we derive the possibility distribution function and discuss the properties of a k-out-of-n (1≤k≤n) system based on the assumption of the possibility theory and keeping the dichotomous state of the system unchanged when the lifetime distribution is either normal, Cauchy, or exponential. A few results contrary to the conventional reliability theory are obtained.

Uniqueness of Maximum Likelihood Estimators for a Backup System in a Condition-Based Maintenance

A parameter estimation problem for a backup system in a condition-based maintenance is considered. We model a backup system by a hidden, three-state continuous time Markov process. Data are obtained through condition monitoring at discrete time points. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters are obtained using the EM algorithm. We establish conditions under which there is no more than one limitation in the parameter space for any sequence derived by the EM algorithm.

On Bayesian Analysis of Burr Type VII Distribution under Different Censoring Schemes

This paper includes the Bayesian analysis of Burr type VII distribution. Three censoring schemes, namely, left censoring, singly type II censoring, and doubly type II censoring have been used for posterior estimation. The results of different censoring schemes have been compared with those under complete samples. The comparative study among the performance of different censoring schemes has also been made. Two noninformative (uniform and Jeffreys) priors have been assumed to derive the posterior distributions under each case. The performance of Bayes estimators has been compared in terms of posterior risks under a simulation study.

Fuzzy RAM Analysis of the Screening Unit in a Paper Industry by Utilizing Uncertain Data

Reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) analysis has helped to identify the critical and sensitive subsystems in the production systems that have a major effect on system performance. But the collected or available data, reflecting the system failure and repair patterns, are vague, uncertain, and imprecise due to various practical constraints. Under these circumstances it is difficult, if not possible, to analyze the system performance up to desired degree of accuracy. For this, Artificial Bee Colony based Lambda-Tau (ABCBLT) technique has been used for computing the RAM parameters by utilizing uncertain data up to a desired degree of accuracy. Results obtained are compared with the existing Fuzzy Lambda-Tau results and we conclude that proposed results have a less range of uncertainties. Also ranking the subcomponents for improving the performance of the system has been done using RAM-Index. The approach has been illustrated through analyzing the performance of the screening unit of a paper industry.

Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis: An Approach Using Expert Judgment and Evidential Credibility

When dealing with complex systems, all decision making occurs under some level of uncertainty. This is due to the physical attributes of the system being analyzed, the environment in which the system operates, and the individuals which operate the system. Techniques for decision making that rely on traditional probability theory have been extensively pursued to incorporate these inherent aleatory uncertainties. However, complex problems also typically include epistemic uncertainties that result from lack of knowledge. These problems are fundamentally different and cannot be addressed in the same fashion. In these instances, decision makers typically use subject matter expert judgment to assist in the analysis of uncertainty. The difficulty with expert analysis, however, is in assessing the accuracy of the expert's input. The credibility of different information can vary widely depending on the expert’s familiarity with the subject matter and their intentional (i.e., a preference for one alternative over another) and unintentional biases (heuristics, anchoring, etc.). This paper proposes the metric of evidential credibility to deal with this issue. The proposed approach is ultimately demonstrated on an example problem concerned with the estimation of aircraft maintenance times for the Turkish Air Force.

Reliability Modeling and Optimization Using Fuzzy Logic and Chaos Theory

Fuzzy sets membership functions integrated with logistic map as the chaos generator were used to create reliability bifurcations diagrams of the system with redundancy of the components. This paper shows that increasing in the number of redundant components results in a postponement of the moment of the first bifurcation which is considered as most contributing to the loss of the reliability. The increasing of redundancy also provides the shrinkage of the oscillation orbit of the level of the system’s membership to reliable state. The paper includes the problem statement of redundancy optimization under conditions of chaotic behavior of influencing parameters and genetic algorithm of this problem solving. The paper shows the possibility of chaos-tolerant systems design with the required level of reliability.

A Nonparametric Scheme for Monitoring a Process Output with a Block Effect

This paper proposes a distribution-free (or nonparametric) control scheme to monitor a process output that contains two special causes of variation called “block or batch” effects and “treatment or position” effects. The scheme properties (control limits, false alarm rate, and in-control average run length) stay the same under any assumed continuous probability distribution. For moderate sample sizes, these properties can be computed exactly from available tables without the need to estimate the mean or variance of the process. The proposed monitoring scheme requires ranking the observations within blocks and using the method of analysis of means by ranks. The paper includes an illustrative example concerning the grinding process of silicon wafers used in integrated circuits production.

Parameter Estimation Based on the Frèchet Progressive Type II Censored Data with Binomial Removals

This paper considers the estimation problem for the Frèchet distribution under progressive Type II censoring with random removals, where the number of units removed at each failure time has a binomial distribution. We use the maximum likelihood method to obtain the estimators of parameters and derive the sampling distributions of the estimators, and we also construct the confidence intervals for the parameters and percentile of the failure time distribution.

A Nonparametric Shewhart-Type Quality Control Chart for Monitoring Broad Changes in a Process Distribution

This paper develops a distribution-free (or nonparametric) Shewhart-type statistical quality control chart for detecting a broad change in the probability distribution of a process. The proposed chart is designed for grouped observations, and it requires the availability of a reference (or training) sample of observations taken when the process was operating in-control. The charting statistic is a modified version of the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistic that allows the exact calculation of the conditional average run length using the binomial distribution. Unlike the traditional distribution-based control charts (such as the Shewhart X-Bar), the proposed chart maintains the same control limits and the in-control average run length over the class of all (symmetric or asymmetric) continuous probability distributions. The proposed chart aims at monitoring a broad, rather than a one-parameter, change in a process distribution. Simulation studies show that the chart is more robust against increased skewness and/or outliers in the process output. Further, the proposed chart is shown to be more efficient than the Shewhart X-Bar chart when the underlying process distribution has tails heavier than those of the normal distribution.

Interval and Point Estimators for the Location Parameter of the Three-Parameter Lognormal Distribution

The three-parameter lognormal distribution is the extension of the two-parameter lognormal distribution to meet the need of the biological, sociological, and other fields. Numerous research papers have been published for the parameter estimation problems for the lognormal distributions. The inclusion of the location parameter brings in some technical difficulties for the parameter estimation problems, especially for the interval estimation. This paper proposes a method for constructing exact confidence intervals and exact upper confidence limits for the location parameter of the three-parameter lognormal distribution. The point estimation problem is discussed as well. The performance of the point estimator is compared with the maximum likelihood estimator, which is widely used in practice. Simulation result shows that the proposed method is less biased in estimating the location parameter. The large sample size case is discussed in the paper.