scholarly journals Effect of climate change in lizards of the genus Xenosaurus (Xenosauridae) based on projected changes in climatic suitability and climatic niche conservatism

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (14) ◽  
pp. 6860-6871 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Berriozabal-Islas ◽  
João Fabrício Mota Rodrigues ◽  
Aurelio Ramírez-Bautista ◽  
Jorge L. Becerra-López ◽  
Adrián Nieto-Montes de Oca
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Niche Conservatism ◽  
Climatic Suitability ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Projected Changes

scholarly journals Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick L. Barnard ◽  
Jenifer E. Dugan ◽  
Henry M. Page ◽  
Nathan J. Wood ◽  
Juliette A. Finzi Hart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Sandy Beaches ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Coastal Systems ◽  
Projected Changes

AbstractAs the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.

scholarly journals 2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1494
Author(s):  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Transient Climate Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Change Mitigation

Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary.

scholarly journals Mediterranean Olive Orchards under Climate Change: A Review of Future Impacts and Adaptation Strategies

Agronomy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Helder Fraga ◽  
Marco Moriondo ◽  
Luisa Leolini ◽  
João A. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Olive Tree ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The olive tree (Olea europaea L.) is an ancient traditional crop in the Mediterranean Basin. In the Mediterranean region, traditional olive orchards are distinguishable by their prevailing climatic conditions. Olive trees are indeed considered one of the most suitable and best-adapted species to the Mediterranean-type climate. However, new challenges are predicted to arise from climate change, threatening this traditional crop. The Mediterranean Basin is considered a climate change “hotspot,” as future projections hint at considerable warming and drying trends. Changes in olive tree suitability have already been reported over the last few decades. In this context, climate change may become particularly challenging for olive growers. The growing evidence for significant climate change in the upcoming decades urges adaptation measures to be taken. To effectively cope with the projected changes, both short and long-term adaptation strategies must be timely planned by the sector stakeholders and decision-makers to adapt for a warmer and dryer future. The current manuscript is devoted to illustrating the main impacts of climate change on olive tree cultivation in the Mediterranean Basin, by reviewing the most recent studies on this subject. Additionally, an analysis of possible adaptation strategies against the potentially negative impacts of climate change was also performed.

scholarly journals Links between plant species’ spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

2014 ◽  
Vol 281 (1779) ◽  
pp. 20133017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuya Amano ◽  
Robert P. Freckleton ◽  
Simon A. Queenborough ◽  
Simon W. Doxford ◽  
Richard J. Smithers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Niche Conservatism ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Perennial Species ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Phenological Changes

To generate realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species’s climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.

Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 3

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Ostoja ◽  
Tapan Pathak ◽  
Katherine Jarvis-Shean ◽  
Mark Battany ◽  
George Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Agricultural Economy ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
The Face ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Large Acreage ◽  
On Farm

The agricultural economy is more vulnerable to projected changes in climate in some California counties than in others. This flyer highlights on-farm adaptation strategies to mitigate some of the effects of increased winter temperatures and more frequent summer heatwaves. Projected conditions will put the most strain on heat intolerant crops and crops with high chill requirements. When crops with these characteristics also have a high market value or are grown in large acreage, counties can be at risk for economic declines. Information on this flyer identifies the most vulnerable counties in California Area 3 for some key, climate-sensitive crops.

Mediterranean climate change projections: an update from CMIP5 and CMIP6.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josep Cos ◽  
Francisco J Doblas-Reyes ◽  
Martin Jury
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Weighting Scheme ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
High Emission ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Model Weighting

<p>The Mediterranean has been identified as a climate change hot-spot due to increased warming trends and precipitation decline. Recently, CMIP6 was found to show a higher climate sensitivity than its predecessor CMIP5, potentially further exacerbating related impacts on the Mediterranean region.</p><p>To estimate the impacts of the ongoing climate change on the region, we compare projections of various CMIP5 and CMIP6 experiments and scenarios. In particular, we focus on summer and winter changes in temperature and precipitation for the 21st century under RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 as well as the high resolution HighResMIP experiments. Additionally, to give robust estimates of projected changes we apply a novel model weighting scheme, accounting for historical performance and inter-independence of the multi-member multi-model ensembles, using ERA5, JRA55 and WFDE5 as observational reference. </p><p>Our results indicate a significant and robust warming over the Mediterranean during the 21st century irrespective of the used ensemble and experiments. Nevertheless, the often attested amplified Mediterranean warming is only found for summer. The projected changes vary between the CMIP5 and CMIP6, with the latter projecting a stronger warming. For the high emission scenarios and without weighting, CMIP5 indicates a warming between 4 and 7.7ºC in summer and 2.7 and 5ºC in winter, while CMIP6 projects temperature increases between 5.6 and 9.2ºC in summer and 3.2 to 6.8ºC in winter until 2081-2100 in respect to 1985-2005. In contrast to temperature, precipitation changes show a higher level of uncertainty and spatial heterogeneity. However, for the high emission scenario, a robust decline in precipitation is projected for large parts of the Mediterranean during summer. First results applying the model weighting scheme indicate reductions in CMIP6 and increases in CMIP5 warming trends, thereby reducing differences between the two ensembles.</p>

scholarly journals Uncertainty in water resources availability in the Okavango River Basin as a result of climate change

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 5737-5768 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Hughes ◽  
D. G. Kingston ◽  
M. C. Todd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Okavango River ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Change In Mean

Abstract. This paper assesses the hydrological response to scenarios of climate change in the Okavango River catchment in Southern Africa. Climate scenarios are constructed representing different changes in global mean temperature from an ensemble of 7 climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4. The results show a substantial change in mean flow associated with a global warming of 2 °C. However, there is considerable uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of the projected changes between different climate models, implying that the ensemble mean is not an appropriate generalised indicator of impact. The uncertainty in response between different climate model patterns is considerably greater than the range due to uncertainty in hydrological model parameterisation. There is also a clear need to evaluate the physical mechanisms associated with the model projected changes in this region. The implications for water resource management policy are considered.

scholarly journals Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over mainland Southeast Asia by CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Supharatid ◽  
J. Nafung ◽  
T. Aribarg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Five mainland SEA countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand) are threatened by climate change. Here, the latest 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is employed to examine future climate change in this region under two SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The bias-corrected multi-model ensemble (MME) projects a warming (wetting) over Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand by 1.88–3.89, 2.04–4.22, 1.88–4.09, 2.03–4.25, and 1.90–3.96 °C (8.76–20.47, 12.69–21.10, 9.54–21.10, 13.47–22.12, and 7.03–15.17%) in the 21st century with larger values found under SSP5-8.5 than SSP2-4.5. The MME model displays approximately triple the current rainfall during the boreal summer. Overall, there are robust increases in rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon (3.41–3.44, 8.44–9.53, and 10.89–17.59%) and the Northeast Monsoon (−2.58 to 0.78, −0.43 to 2.81, and 2.32 to 5.45%). The effectiveness of anticipated climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under SSP2-4.5 results in slowing down the warming trends and decreasing precipitation trends after 2050. All these findings imply that member countries of mainland SEA need to prepare for appropriate adaptation measures in response to the changing climate.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document