Analysis of the Hydrological Behavior of Watersheds in the Context of Climate Change (Northwestern Algeria)

AbstractThe aim of this work is to study the temporal evolution of the rainfall-runoff relations of four basins in northwestern Algeria: the Tafna Maritime, Isser Sikkak, downstream Mouilah and Upper Tafna basins. The adopted approach consists of analyzing hydroclimatic variables using statistical methods and testing the nonstationarity of the rainfall-runoff relation by the cross-simulation method using the GR2M model. The results of the different statistical methods applied to the series of rainfall and hydrometric variables show a decrease due to a break in stationarity detected since the mid-1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. The annual rainfall deficits reached average values of 34.6% during the period of 1941–2006 and 29.1% during the period of 1970–2010. The average annual wadi flows showed average deficits of 61.1% between 1912 and 2000 and 53.1% between 1973 and 2009. The GR2M conceptual model simulated the observed hydrographs in an acceptable manner by providing calculated runoff values in the calibration and validation periods greater or less than the observed runoff values. The application of the cross-simulation method highlighted the nonstationarity of the rainfall-runoff relations in three of the four studied basins, indicating downward trends of monthly runoff.

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Modelling monthly runoff generation processes following land use changes: groundwater–surface runoff interactions

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-8-903-2004 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 8 (5) ◽

pp. 903-922 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

M. Bari ◽

K. R. J. Smettem

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Water Balance ◽

Surface Runoff ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Runoff Generation ◽

Mean Annual Rainfall ◽

Monthly Runoff ◽

Stream Bed

Abstract. A conceptual water balance model is presented to represent changes in monthly water balance following land use changes. Monthly rainfall–runoff, groundwater and soil moisture data from four experimental catchments in Western Australia have been analysed. Two of these catchments, "Ernies" (control, fully forested) and "Lemon" (54% cleared) are in a zone of mean annual rainfall of 725 mm, while "Salmon" (control, fully forested) and "Wights" (100% cleared) are in a zone with mean annual rainfall of 1125 mm. At the Salmon forested control catchment, streamflow comprises surface runoff, base flow and interflow components. In the Wights catchment, cleared of native forest for pasture development, all three components increased, groundwater levels rose significantly and stream zone saturated area increased from 1% to 15% of the catchment area. It took seven years after clearing for the rainfall–runoff generation process to stabilise in 1984. At the Ernies forested control catchment, the permanent groundwater system is 20 m below the stream bed and so does not contribute to streamflow. Following partial clearing of forest in the Lemon catchment, groundwater rose steadily and reached the stream bed by 1987. The streamflow increased in two phases: (i) immediately after clearing due to reduced evapotranspiration, and (ii) through an increase in the groundwater-induced stream zone saturated area after 1987. After analysing all the data available, a conceptual monthly model was created, comprising four inter-connecting stores: (i) an upper zone unsaturated store, (ii) a transient stream zone store, (ii) a lower zone unsaturated store and (iv) a saturated groundwater store. Data such as rooting depth, Leaf Area Index, soil porosity, profile thickness, depth to groundwater, stream length and surface slope were incorporated into the model as a priori defined attributes. The catchment average values for different stores were determined through matching observed and predicted monthly hydrographs. The observed and predicted monthly runoff for all catchments matched well with coefficients of determination (R2) ranging from 0.68 to 0.87. Predictions were relatively poor for: (i) the Ernies catchment (lowest rainfall, forested), and (ii) months with very high flows. Overall, the predicted mean annual streamflow was within ±8% of the observed values. Keywords: monthly streamflow, land use change, conceptual model, data-based approach, groundwater

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Impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment under RCP scenarios

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2021.307 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Wudeneh Temesgen Bekele ◽

Alemseged Tamiru Haile ◽

Tom Rientjes

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Rainy Season ◽

Climate Models ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Rainfall Runoff Model ◽

The Impact ◽

Runoff Model

Abstract In this study, the impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment, Upper Blue Nile basin, is evaluated. We used the outputs of four climate models for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, which are RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Streamflow simulation was done by using the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model, which was satisfactorily calibrated and validated for the study area. For the historic period (1971–2000), all climate models significantly underestimated the observed rainfall amount for the rainy season. We therefore bias-corrected the climate data before using them as input for the rainfall-runoff model. The results of the four climate models for the period 2041 to 2070 show that annual rainfall is likely to decrease by 0.36 to 21% under RCP 4.5. The projected increases in minimum and maximum temperature will lead to an increase in annual evapotranspiration by 3 to 7%, which will likely contribute to decreasing the annual flows of Arjo-Didessa by 1 to 3%. Our results show that the impact is season dependent, with an increased streamflow in the main rainy season but a decreased flow in the short rainy season and the dry seasons. The magnitudes of projected changes are more pronounced under RCP 8.5 than under RCP 4.5.

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Research in the cross-section of community psychology and global climate change: A call for action

PsycEXTRA Dataset ◽

10.1037/e628592012-083 ◽

2009 ◽

Author(s):

Marci Culley ◽

Holly Angelique ◽

Courte Voorhees ◽

Brian John Bishop ◽

Peta Louise Dzidic ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Cross Section ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Community Psychology ◽

Global Climate ◽

The Cross

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Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Water ◽

10.3390/w13050665 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (5) ◽

pp. 665

Author(s):

Chanchai Petpongpan ◽

Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽

Supattra Visessri ◽

Duangrudee Kositgittiwong

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Extreme Events ◽

River Basins ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Extreme Floods ◽

Extreme Flood ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

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Performance Evaluation of a Two-Parameters Monthly Rainfall-Runoff Model in the Southern Basin of Thailand

Water ◽

10.3390/w13091226 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 1226

Author(s):

Pakorn Ditthakit ◽

Sirimon Pinthong ◽

Nureehan Salaeh ◽

Fadilah Binnui ◽

Laksanara Khwanchum ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Management Planning ◽

Runoff Variation ◽

Groundwater Exchange ◽

Monthly Runoff ◽

Rainfall Runoff Model ◽

Two Parameters ◽

Runoff Model

Accurate monthly runoff estimation is crucial in water resources management, planning, and development, preventing and reducing water-related problems, such as flooding and droughts. This article evaluates the monthly hydrological rainfall-runoff model’s performance, the GR2M model, in Thailand’s southern basins. The GR2M model requires only two parameters: production store (X1) and groundwater exchange rate (X2). Moreover, no prior research has been reported on its application in this region. The 37 runoff stations, which are located in three sub-watersheds of Thailand’s southern region, namely; Thale Sap Songkhla, Peninsular-East Coast, and Peninsular-West Coast, were selected as study cases. The available monthly hydrological data of runoff, rainfall, air temperature from the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) and the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) were collected and analyzed. The Thornthwaite method was utilized for the determination of evapotranspiration. The model’s performance was conducted using three statistical indices: Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Correlation Coefficient (r), and Overall Index (OI). The model’s calibration results for 37 runoff stations gave the average NSE, r, and OI of 0.657, 0.825, and 0.757, respectively. Moreover, the NSE, r, and OI values for the model’s verification were 0.472, 0.750, and 0.639, respectively. Hence, the GR2M model was qualified and reliable to apply for determining monthly runoff variation in this region. The spatial distribution of production store (X1) and groundwater exchange rate (X2) values was conducted using the IDW method. It was susceptible to the X1, and X2 values of approximately more than 0.90, gave the higher model’s performance.

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The Wet and Dry Spells across India during 1951–2007

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/2009jhm1161.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 26-45 ◽

Cited By ~ 36

Author(s):

Nityanand Singh ◽

Ashwini Ranade

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Rainfall Intensity ◽

Total Duration ◽

Daily Rainfall ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Monsoon Period ◽

Northwestern India ◽

Area Of Interest ◽

Dry Spells

Abstract Characteristics of wet spells (WSs) and intervening dry spells (DSs) are extremely useful for water-related sectors. The information takes on greater significance in the wake of global climate change and climate-change scenario projections. The features of 40 parameters of the rainfall time distribution as well as their extremes have been studied for two wet and dry spells for 19 subregions across India using gridded daily rainfall available on 1° latitude × 1° longitude spatial resolution for the period 1951–2007. In a low-frequency-mode, intra-annual rainfall variation, WS (DS) is identified as a “continuous period with daily rainfall equal to or greater than (less than) daily mean rainfall (DMR) of climatological monsoon period over the area of interest.” The DMR shows significant spatial variation from 2.6 mm day−1 over the extreme southeast peninsula (ESEP) to 20.2 mm day−1 over the southern-central west coast (SCWC). Climatologically, the number of WSs (DSs) decreases from 11 (10) over the extreme south peninsula to 4 (3) over northwestern India as a result of a decrease in tropical and oceanic influences. The total duration of WSs (DSs) decreases from 101 (173) to 45 (29) days, and the duration of individual WS (DS) from 12 (18) to 7 (11) days following similar spatial patterns. Broadly, the total rainfall of wet and dry spells, and rainfall amount and rainfall intensity of actual and extreme wet and dry spells, are high over orographic regions and low over the peninsula, Indo-Gangetic plains, and northwest dry province. The rainfall due to WSs (DSs) contributes ∼68% (∼17%) to the respective annual total. The start of the first wet spell is earlier (19 March) over ESEP and later (22 June) over northwestern India, and the end of the last wet spell occurs in reverse, that is, earlier (12 September) from northwestern India and later (16 December) from ESEP. In recent years/decades, actual and extreme WSs are slightly shorter and their rainfall intensity higher over a majority of the subregions, whereas actual and extreme DSs are slightly (not significantly) longer and their rainfall intensity weaker. There is a tendency for the first WS to start approximately six days earlier across the country and the last WS to end approximately two days earlier, giving rise to longer duration of rainfall activities by approximately four days. However, a spatially coherent, robust, long-term trend (1951–2007) is not seen in any of the 40 WS/DS parameters examined in the present study.

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Impact of climate change on water availability in Tropical Andean catchments: a case study in the Vilcanota catchment, Peru

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10292 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Selina Meier ◽

Randy Munoz ◽

Christian Huggel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Management ◽

Water Demand ◽

Climate Models ◽

Local Population ◽

Time Step ◽

Glacier Surface ◽

Hydrological Simulation ◽

Sustainable Water Management ◽

Monthly Runoff

Water scarcity is increasingly becoming a problem in many regions of the world. On the one hand, this can be attributed to changes in precipitation conditions due to climate change. On the other hand, this is also due to population growth and changes in consumer behaviour. In this study, an analysis is carried out for the highly glaciated Vilcanota River catchment (9808 km2 &#8211; 1.2% glacier area) in the Cusco region (Peru). Possible climatic and socioeconomic scenarios up to 2050 were developed including the interests from different water sectors, i.e. agriculture, domestic and energy.The analysis consists of the hydrological simulation at a monthly time step from September 2043 to August 2050 using a simple glacio-hydrological model. For historic conditions (1990 to 2006) a combination of gridded data (PISCO precipitation) and weather stations was used. Future scenario simulations were based on three different climate models for both RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Different glacier outlines were used to simulate changes in glacier surface through the time for both historic (from satellite data) and future (from existing literature) scenarios. Furthermore, future water demand simulations were based on the SSP1 and SSP3 scenarios.Results from all scenarios suggest an average monthly runoff of about 130 m3/s for the Vilcanota catchment between 2043 and 2050. This represents a change of about +5% compared to the historical monthly runoff of about 123 m3/s. The reason for the increase in runoff is related to the precipitation data from the selected climate models. However, an average monthly deficit of up to 50 m3/s was estimated between April and November with a peak in September. The seasonal deficit is related to the seasonal change in precipitation, while the water demand seems to have a less important influence.Due to the great uncertainty of the modelling and changes in the socioeconomic situation, the data should be continuously updated. In order to construct a locally sustainable water management system, the modelling needs to be further downscaled to the different subcatchments in the Vilcanota catchment. To address the projected water deficit, a new dam could partially compensate for the decreasing storage capacity of the melting glaciers. However, the construction of the dam could meet resistance from the local population if they cannot be promised and communicated multiple uses of the new dam. Sustainable water management requires the cooperation of all stakeholders and all stakeholders should be able to benefit from it so that they will support future projects.

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Climatology and Trends of Climate Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation in Belo Monte Hydropower Plant – Eastern Amazon, Brazil

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9079 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Wanderson Luiz-Silva ◽

Pedro Regoto ◽

Camila Ferreira de Vasconcellos ◽

Felipe Bevilaqua Foldes Guimarães ◽

Katia Cristina Garcia

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Extremes ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

The South ◽

North Central ◽

Adaptation Capacity ◽

The North ◽

South Central ◽

Daily Data ◽

Belo Monte

This research aims to support studies related to the adaptation capacity of the Amazon region to climate change. The Belo Monte Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) is in the Xingu River basin, in eastern Amazonia. Deforestation coupled with changes in water bodies that occurred in the drainage area of Belo Monte HPP over the past few decades can significantly influence the hydroclimatic features and, consequently, ecosystems and energy generation in the region. In this context, we analyze the climatology and trends of climate extremes in this area. The climate information comes from daily data in grid points of 0.25&#176; x 0.25&#176; for the period 1980-2013, available in http://careyking.com/data-downloads/. A set of 17 climate extremes indices based on daily data of maximum temperature (TX), minimum temperature (TN), and precipitation (PRCP) was calculated through the RClimDex software, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The Mann-Kendall and the Sen&#8217;s Curvature tests are used to assess the statistical significance and the magnitude of the trends, respectively. The drainage area of the Belo Monte HPP is dominated by two climatic types: an equatorial climate in the north-central portion of the basin, with high temperatures and little variation throughout the year (22&#176;C to 32&#176;C), in addition to more frequent precipitation; and a tropical climate in the south-central sector, which experiences slightly more pronounced temperature variations throughout the year (20&#176;C to 33&#176;C) and presents a more defined wet and dry periods. The south-central portion of the basin exhibits the highest temperature extremes, with the highest TX and the lowest TN of the year occurring in this area, both due to the predominant days of clear skies in the austral winter, as to the advance of intense masses of polar air at this period. The diurnal temperature range is lower in the north-central sector when compared to that in the south-central region since the first has greater cloud cover and a higher frequency of precipitation. The largest annual rainfall volumes are concentrated at the north and west sides (more than 1,800 mm) and the precipitation extremes are heterogeneous across the basin. The maximum number of consecutive dry days increases from the north (10 to 20 days) to the south (90 to 100 days). The annual frequency of warm days and nights is increasing significantly in a large part of the basin with a magnitude ranging predominantly from +7 to +19 days/decade. The annual rainfall shows a predominant elevation sign of up to +200 mm/decade only in the northern part of the basin, while the remainder shows a reduction of up to -100 mm/decade. The duration of drought periods increases in the south-central sector of the basin, reaching up to +13 days/decade in some areas. The results of this study will be used in the future as an important input, together with exposure, sensibility, and local adaptation capacity, to design adaptation strategies that are more consistent with local reality and to the needs of local communities.

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Refined Simulation Method of the Rainfall–Runoff Processes in a Residential Area with LID Measures

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering ◽

10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0002135 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 26 (12) ◽

pp. 04021038

Author(s):

Jingming Hou ◽

Xinghua Wang ◽

Bingyao Li ◽

Xujun Gao ◽

Miansong Huang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Simulation Method ◽

Residential Area ◽

Rainfall Runoff

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Aplicação do Tank Model como Ferramenta de Gestão na Bacia do Rio Perdizes – Cambará do Sul/RS

Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física ◽

10.26848/rbgf.v14.2.p1143-1158 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 1143

Author(s):

Karla Campagnolo ◽

Sofia Melo Vasconcellos ◽

Vinicius Santanna Castiglio ◽

Marina Refatti Fagundes ◽

Masato Kobiyama

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

National Park ◽

Management Tool ◽

Hydrological Models ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Moisture Index ◽

Tank Model ◽

Calibration And Validation ◽

Historical Series ◽

Soil Moisture Index

A representação do processo precipitação-vazão por meio de modelos hidrológicos conceituais visa quantificar o volume escoado em uma bacia como consequência de uma determinada precipitação. Aliados a eles, os índices têm sido uma ferramenta útil para quantificar eventos extremos, como o Soil Moisture Index (TMI) que foi formulado a partir do modelo hidrológico Tank Model. Desta forma, o objetivo deste trabalho foi aplicar o Tank Model para a bacia do rio Perdizes, em Cambará do Sul (RS), e avaliar o desempenho do TMI para prever a ocorrência de cheias, limiar este utilizado para o fechamento da Trilha do rio do Boi, no Parque Nacional de Aparados da Serra (PNAS). Os dados utilizados na simulação foram obtidos pelas estações meteorológica e fluviométrica instaladas na bacia. Após a calibração e validação de três séries históricas no Tank Model, os valores obtidos do TMI foram comparados com os dias que a Trilha foi fechada, a partir de altos níveis registrados no rio Perdizes. O TMI demonstrou que o nível utilizado para fechar a Trilha do rio do Boi correspondeu a cheias em 72% das vezes. Portanto, o TMI mostrou bom desempenho ao indicar a ocorrência de cheias na área estudada, sendo uma ferramenta útil para a tomada de decisões na gestão do PNAS. Application of the Tank Model as a Management Tool in the Perdizes River Basin - Cambará do Sul/RS.ABSTRACTThe representation of the rainfall-runoff process by means of conceptual hydrological models aims to quantify the volume drained in a basin as result of a specific precipitation. Allied to them, the indices have been a useful tool to quantify extreme events, such as the Tank Moisture Index (TMI) which was formulated from the Tank Model. Thus, the objective of this work was to apply the Tank Model to the Perdizes river basin, in Cambará do Sul (RS), and to evaluate the performance of the TMI to predict the occurrence of floods, the threshold used for the closure of the Rio do Boi trail, in the Aparados da Serra National Park (PNAS). The data used in the simulation were obtained at the meteorological and fluviometric stations installed in the basin. After the calibration and validation of three historical series in the Tank Model, the values obtained in the TMI were compared with the days when the Trail was closed, from high levels recorded in the Perdizes river. The average TMI values demonstrated that the level used to close the Rio do Boi Trail corresponded to floods 72% of the time, and the median, 75%. Therefore, the TMI showed good performance in indicating the occurrence of floods in the study area, being a useful tool for decision making in the PNAS management.Keywords: Tank Moisture Index, trail closure, Aparados da Serra National Park.

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