Variability of tropical cyclones over the southwest Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution climate model

2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 171-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. M. Leslie ◽  
D. J. Karoly ◽  
M. Leplastrier ◽  
B. W. Buckley
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southwest Pacific

scholarly journals High-Resolution Seeded Simulations of Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclones in Two Future Extreme Climates

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 309-334
Author(s):  
J. G. McLay ◽  
E. A. Hendricks ◽  
J. Moskaitis
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Bootstrap Analysis ◽  
Western North Pacific Ocean ◽  
The Future

ABSTRACT A variant of downscaling is devised to explore the properties of tropical cyclones (TCs) that originate in the open ocean of the western North Pacific Ocean (WestPac) region under extreme climates. This variant applies a seeding strategy in large-scale environments simulated by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate-model integrations together with embedded integrations of Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC), an operational, high-resolution, nonhydrostatic, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Test periods for the present day and late twenty-first century are sampled from two different integrations for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcing scenario. Then seeded simulations for the present-day period are contrasted with similar seeded simulations for the future period. Reinforcing other downscaling studies, the seeding results suggest that the future environments are notably more conducive to high-intensity TC activity in the WestPac. Specifically, the future simulations yield considerably more TCs that exceed 96-kt (1 kt ≈ 0.5144 m s−1) intensity, and these TCs exhibit notably greater average life cycle maximum intensity and tend to spend more time above the 96-kt intensity threshold. Also, the future simulations yield more TCs that make landfall at >64-kt intensity, and the average landfall intensity of these storms is appreciably greater. These findings are supported by statistical bootstrap analysis as well as by a supplemental sensitivity analysis. Accounting for COAMPS-TC intensity forecast bias using a quantile-matching approach, the seeded simulations suggest that the potential maximum western North Pacific TC intensities in the future extreme climate may be approximately 190 kt.

scholarly journals A study on the Sensitivity of Parameterizations for Regional Climate models in the Simulation of Tropical Cyclones over Western Pacific Ocean and East Sea

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pham Quang Nam ◽  
Tran Quang Duc ◽  
Le Lan Phuong ◽  
Hoang Danh Huy ◽  
Pham Thanh Ha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
East Sea ◽  
Western Pacific Ocean ◽  
Convection Scheme

This study investigates the sensitivity of physical parameterization schemes in two regional dynamic models clWRF (the climate Weather Research and Forecasting) and RegCM (the Regional Climate Model) in the simulation of tropical cyclones (TCs) over Western Pacific Ocean and East Sea. The experiments include 12-cases for clWRF model and 6-cases for RegCM model were conducted to run the simulation, with the same domain parameters, resolution 25 km. Results show that the clWRF can simulate TCs well with the Betts-Miller-Janjic convection scheme and WSM6 microphysics, in which convection schemes are more influential, and the RegCM is with the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme and Zeng oceanic flux. Regarding the number of TCs simulation, most of them are higher than observed and CFSnl (Climate Forecast System analysis) data, therein the RegCM is higher than the clWRF.

Meridional distribution of moisture transport associated to Tropical Cyclones

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Peano ◽  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Alessio Bellucci ◽  
Malcolm Roberts ◽  
Annalisa Cherchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
The North ◽  
Good Ability ◽  
The Impact

<p>Tropical cyclones (TCs) transport energy and moisture along their pathways interacting with the climate system and TCs activities are expected to extend further poleward during the 21<sup>st</sup> century.</p><p>For this reason, it is important to assess the ability of state-of-the-art climate models in reproducing an accurate meridional distribution of TCs as well as a reasonable meridional portrait of moisture transport associated with TCs.</p><p>Since high resolutions are required to reconstruct observed TCs activity, the present work is based on the simulations performed as part of HighResMIP in the framework of the community CMIP6 effort. To inspect this feature, two horizontal resolutions for each climate model are considered. Besides, the impact of boundary conditions, i.e. observed ocean surface state, is examined by considering both coupled and atmosphere-only configurations.</p><p>In the present work, the north Atlantic region is analyzed as a sample region, while the same approach is applied on a multi-basin basis. In the sample area, climate models present a good ability in reproducing the TCs distribution, with a general underestimation at lower latitudes and a slight overestimation at high-latitudes compared to observed TCs tracks (e.g. IBTRACK).</p><p>The meridional distribution of moisture transport associated with TCs is evaluated by considering the radial average of the integrated water vapor transport along the TC tracks. When compared to observation (IBTRACS and JRA-55 reanalysis), the simulated moisture transport associated with TCs displays reasonably good performance in atmosphere-only high-resolution models configuration. The interannual variability of water vapor associated with TCs, instead, is poorly represented in climate models.</p><p>Climate models in high-resolution configuration can then be used in estimating future TCs meridional distribution and changes in meridional moisture transport associated with TCs.</p><p>This effort is part of HighResMIP and it is developed in the framework of the EU-funded PRIMAVERA project.   </p>

scholarly journals Projected Changes in the Southern Indian Ocean Cyclone Activity Assessed from High-Resolution Experiments and CMIP5 Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (12) ◽  
pp. 4975-4991
Author(s):  
Julien Cattiaux ◽  
Fabrice Chauvin ◽  
Olivier Bousquet ◽  
Sylvie Malardel ◽  
Chia-Lun Tsai
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Indian Ocean ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Projected Changes

AbstractThe evolution of tropical cyclone activity under climate change remains a crucial scientific issue. Physical theory of cyclogenesis is limited, observational datasets suffer from heterogeneities in space and time, and state-of-the-art climate models used for future projections are still too coarse (~100 km of resolution) to simulate realistic systems. Two approaches can nevertheless be considered: 1) perform dedicated high-resolution (typically <50 km) experiments in which tropical cyclones can be tracked and 2) assess cyclone activity from existing low-resolution multimodel climate projections using large-scale indices as proxies. Here we explore these two approaches with a particular focus on the southern Indian Ocean. We first compute high-resolution experiments using the rotated-stretched configuration of our climate model (CNRM-CM6-1), which is able to simulate realistic tropical cyclones. In a 2-K warmer world, the model projects a 20% decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones, together with an increase in their maximum lifetime intensity, a slight poleward shift of their trajectories, and a substantial delay (about 1 month) in the cyclone season onset. Large-scale indices applied to these high-resolution experiments fail to capture the overall decrease in cyclone frequency, but are able to partially represent projected changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of cyclone activity. Last, we apply large-scale indices to multimodel CMIP5 projections and find that the seasonal redistribution of cyclone activity is consistent across models.

High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1517-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann ◽  
Andreas Heckl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Full Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

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