scholarly journals Past, present and future suitable areas for the relict tree Pterocarya fraxinifolia (Juglandaceae): Integrating fossil records, niche modeling, and phylogeography for conservation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Gang Song ◽  
Łukasz Walas ◽  
Marcin Pietras ◽  
Hoàng Văn Sâm ◽  
Hamed Yousefzadeh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Niche Modeling ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Niche Modeling ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Land Utilization ◽  
Distribution Form ◽  
Southern Caucasus ◽  
Suitable Area

AbstractPterocarya fraxinifolia, native to the southern Caucasus and adjacent areas, has been widely introduced in Europe. In this study, we investigate the following: (1) How did its current distribution form? (2) What are the past, current, and future suitable habitats of P. fraxinifolia? (3) What is the best conservation approach? Ecological niche modeling was applied to determine its climatic demands and project the distribution of climatically suitable areas during three periods of past, current, and future (2070) time. Then, an integrated analysis of fossil data was performed. Massive expansion of Pterocarya species between the Miocene and Pliocene facilitated the arrival of P. fraxinifolia to the southern Caucasus. The Last Glacial Maximum played a vital role in its current fragmented spatial distribution in the Euxinian and Hyrcanian regions with lower elevations, and Caucasian and Irano-Turanian regions with higher elevations. Climatic limiting factors were very different across these four regions. Future climate change will create conditions for the expansion of this species in Europe. Human activities significantly decreased the suitable area for P. fraxinifolia, especially in the Euxinian, Hyrcanian, and Irano-Turanian regions. Considering genetic diversity, climate vulnerability, and land utilization, the Euxinian, Hyrcanian, and Irano-Turanian regions have been recognized as conservation priority areas for P. fraxinifolia.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on Capparis spinosa L. based on ecological niche modeling

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e5792 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uzma Ashraf ◽  
Muhammad N. Chaudhry ◽  
Sajid R. Ahmad ◽  
Irfan Ashraf ◽  
Muhammad Arslan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ecological Niche Modeling ◽  
Conservation Status ◽  
Niche Modeling ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Capparis Spinosa ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Recent changes in climate are transforming the situation of life on Earth, including impacting the conservation status of many plant and animal species. This study aims to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on a medicinal plant that is known to be heat-tolerant, Capparis spinosa L. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate current and future potential distributions for the species, considering two emissions scenarios and five climate models for two time periods (2050 and 2070). The results in terms of areal coverage at different suitability levels in the future were closely similar to its present-day distribution; indeed, only minor differences existed in highly suitable area, with increases of only 0.2–0.3% in suitable area for 2050 and 2070 under representative concentration pathway 4.5. Given that climate-mediated range shifts in the species are expected to be minor, conservation attention to this species can focus on minimizing local effects of anthropogenic activity.

scholarly journals Evaluation metrics and validation of presence-only species distribution models based on distributional maps with varying coverage

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamil Konowalik ◽  
Agata Nosol
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Niche Modeling ◽  
Niche Modeling ◽  
Ecological Niches ◽  
Herbarium Specimens ◽  
Wide Field ◽  
Environmental Niche ◽  
Endemic Plant ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Environmental Niche Modeling ◽  
Almost All

AbstractWe examine how different datasets, including georeferenced hardcopy maps of different extents and georeferenced herbarium specimens (spanning the range from 100 to 85,000 km2) influence ecological niche modeling. We check 13 of the available environmental niche modeling algorithms, using 30 metrics to score their validity and evaluate which are useful for the selection of the best model. The validation is made using an independent dataset comprised of presences and absences collected in a range-wide field survey of Carpathian endemic plant Leucanthemum rotundifolium (Compositae). Our analysis of models’ predictive performances indicates that almost all datasets may be used for the construction of a species distributional range. Both very local and very general datasets can produce useful predictions, which may be more detailed than the original ranges. Results also highlight the possibility of using the data from manually georeferenced archival sources in reconstructions aimed at establishing species’ ecological niches. We discuss possible applications of those data and associated problems. For the evaluation of models, we suggest employing AUC, MAE, and Bias. We show an example of how AUC and MAE may be combined to select the model with the best performance.

scholarly journals Predicted Future Benefits for an Endemic Rodent in the Irano-Turanian Region

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Suzanna Meeussen ◽  
Anouschka Hof
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.

scholarly journals Potential Distribution of Chagas Disease Vectors (Hemiptera, Reduviidae, Triatominae) in Colombia, Based on Ecological Niche Modeling

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Parra-Henao ◽  
Laura C. Suárez-Escudero ◽  
Sebastián González-Caro
Keyword(s):  
Chagas Disease ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Ecological Niche Modeling ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Niche Modeling ◽  
Triatomine Species ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
And Control

Ecological niche modeling of Triatominae bugs allow us to establish the local risk of transmission of the parasiteTrypanosoma cruzi,which causes Chagas disease.This information could help to guide health authority recommendations on infection monitoring, prevention, and control. In this study, we estimated the geographic distribution of triatomine species in Colombia and identified the relationship between landscape structure and climatic factors influencing their occurrence. A total of 2451 records of 4 triatomine species (Panstrongylus geniculatus,Rhodnius pallescens,R. prolixus, andTriatoma maculata) were analyzed.The variables that provided more information to explain the ecologic niche of these vectors were related to precipitation, altitude, and temperature. We found that the species with the broadest potential geographic distribution wereP. geniculatus,R. pallescens, andR. prolixus. In general, the models predicted the highest occurrence probability of these vectors in the eastern slope of the Eastern Cordillera, the southern region of the Magdalena valley, and the Sierra Nevada of Santa Marta.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document