Seismic Cycles and Trend Predictions of Earthquakes in Sumatra–Andaman and Burmese Subduction Zones using Temporal b-value and Hurst Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 92 (6) ◽  
pp. 661-670 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diptansu Sengupta ◽  
Basab Mukhopadhyay ◽  
Om Prakash Mishra
1992 ◽  
Vol 82 (3) ◽  
pp. 1306-1349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier F. Pacheco ◽  
Lynn R. Sykes

Abstract We compile a worldwide catalog of shallow (depth < 70 km) and large (Ms ≥ 7) earthquakes recorded between 1900 and 1989. The catalog is shown to be complete and uniform at the 20-sec surface-wave magnitude Ms ≥ 7.0. We base our catalog on those of Abe (1981, 1984) and Abe and Noguchi (1983a, b) for events with Ms ≥ 7.0. Those catalogs, however, are not homogeneous in seismicity rates for the entire 90-year period. We assume that global rates of seismicity are constant on a time scale of decades and most inhomogeneities arise from changes in instrumentation and/or reporting. We correct the magnitudes to produce a homogeneous catalog. The catalog is accompanied by a reference list for all the events with seismic moment determined at periods longer than 20 sec. Using these seismic moments for great and giant earthquakes and a moment-magnitude relationship for smaller events, we produce a seismic moment catalog for large earthquakes from 1900 to 1989. The catalog is used to study the distribution of moment released worldwide. Although we assumed a constant rate of seismicity on a global basis, the rate of moment release has not been constant for the 90-year period because the latter is dominated by the few largest earthquakes. We find that the seismic moment released at subduction zones during this century constitutes 90% of all the moment released by large, shallow earthquakes on a global basis. The seismic moment released in the largest event that occurred during this century, the 1960 southern Chile earthquake, represents about 30 to 45% of the total moment released from 1900 through 1989. A frequency-size distribution of earthquakes with seismic moment yields an average slope (b value) that changes from 1.04 for magnitudes between 7.0 and 7.5 to b = 1.51 for magnitudes between 7.6 and 8.0. This change in the b value is attributed to different scaling relationships between bounded (large) and unbounded (small) earthquakes. Thus, the earthquake process does have a characteristic length scale that is set by the downdip width over which rupture in earthquakes can occur. That width is typically greater for thrust events at subduction zones than for earthquakes along transform faults and other tectonic environments.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hafize Başak Bayraktar ◽  
Antonio Scala ◽  
Gaetano Festa ◽  
Stefano Lorito

<p>Subduction zones are the most seismically active regions on the globe and about 90% of historical events, including the largest ones with the magnitude M>9, occurred along these regions (Hayes et al., 2018). Most of these events were followed by devastating tsunamis with, in some cases, perhaps unexpected wave height distributions. Observation of events in the megathrust environment reveals that some earthquakes are characterized by slip concentration on the very shallow part of the subduction zone. This shallow slip phenomenon was repeatedly observed in the last two decades for both ordinary megathrust events (e.g. 2010 Maule and 2011 Tohoku) and tsunami earthquakes (2006 Java and 2010 Mentawai). Shallow ruptures feature depleted short–period energy release and very slow rupture velocity possibly due to the presence of (hydrated) sediments (Lay et al., 2011; Lay 2014; Polet and Kanamori, 2000). Associated long rupture durations have been explained with fault mechanics-related rigidity and stress drop variation with depth (Bilek and Lay, 1999) or, more recently, with lower rigidity of surrounding materials (Sallares and Ranero, 2019).</p><p>The characteristics of co-seismic slip distribution have an important impact on tsunami hazard. There are numerous methods that have been proposed to generate stochastic slip distributions, also including shallow slip amplification (Le Veque et al., 2016; Sepulveda et al., 2017; Scala et al., 2019). However, these models need to be calibrated against slip models estimated for real events.</p><p>Here, we investigate similarities and differences between the synthetic slip distributions provided by Scala et al. (2019) and a suite of 144 slip models of real events that occurred in different subduction zones (Ye et al.,2016). In particular, Scala et al. (2019) model features shallow slip amplification in single events, whose relative probabilities are balanced to restore cumulative slip homogeneity on the fault plane over multiple seismic cycles. This study also aims to improve and/or calibrate this model to account for the behavior observed from real events.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 873 (1) ◽  
pp. 012031
Author(s):  
A P Astuti ◽  
E M Elsera ◽  
M F I Massinai ◽  
M A Akbar

Abstract The north arm of Sulawesi has a fairly high level of seismicity. The North Sulawesi arm is bounded in the south by the Palu-Koro Fault, the northern part is bounded by the North Sulawesi Trench and the Molluca Sea Thrust in the east. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the characteristic of the 2010-2020 earthquakes in the north arm of Sulawesi by analyzing the earthquake’s focal mechanism and mapping the b-value using the maximum likelihood method. From this study, we obtained the focal mechanism consist of thrust and strike-slip, this is due to the activity of faults and subduction zones in the North arm of Sulawesi such as the Palu-koro fault, the Gorontalo Fault, North Sulawesi Trench, Molucca Sea Collision, and several other faults that affect the seismicity of this region. The variation of the b-value ranging from 0.5-1.1 These studies indicate that thrust fault regions have lower b-values, while strike-slip fault regions have intermediate b-values. Meanwhile, areas with active volcanoes tend to have high b-values. The results of this research can be used as a basis for decision making related to earthquake mitigation in this area in the future.


1996 ◽  
Vol 23 (13) ◽  
pp. 1557-1560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Wiemer ◽  
John P. Benoit
Keyword(s):  

BIBECHANA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 32-42
Author(s):  
Ram Krishna Tiwari ◽  
Harihar Paudyal

This study computes the b-value of Gutenberg-Richter relation associated with the 25 April 2015 Gorkha earthquake and its aftershock sequences. For this the homogeneous catalogue of 769 earthquakes that occurred in the Himalayan compressed belt and its vicinity was analyzed by three different approaches. The minimum b-values 0.60±0.07 and 0.63±0.06 were observed for windows containing Gorkha earthquake. For time window before Gorkha earthquake, the b-value was noted as 0.89±0.12. It was noted 0.81±0.04 for time window between Gorkha earthquake and Dolakha earthquake and 0.78±0.08 for time window after Dolakha earthquake. The results revealed the fact that b-value starts to decrease for strong earthquake. About 17% jumps of the b value were observed within 17 days between Gorkha earthquake and its largest aftershock, the Dolakha earthquake. The b-value 1.16±0.09 was obtained for the depth range of 0-10 km, 0.89±0.4 for the depth range 10-20 km and 0.65±0.08 for the depth range of 20-30 km. The results strongly support the global trends of decreasing b-value with depth in the continental crust and subduction zones. The low b-value patch observed in the west of Gorkha from contour map depicts the region as the potential zone of future strong seismic activity. BIBECHANA 18 (2) (2021) 32-42


2015 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 61-64
Author(s):  
Marco Scambelluri ◽  
Enrico Cannaò ◽  
Mattia Gilio ◽  
Marguerite Godard

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Fernández-Blanco

Orogenic plateaus have raised abundant attention amongst geoscientists during the last decades, offering unique opportunities to better understand the relationships between tectonics and climate, and their expression on the Earth’s surface.Orogenic plateau margins are key areas for understanding the mechanisms behind plateau (de)formation. Plateau margins are transitional areas between domains with contrasting relief and characteristics; the roughly flat elevated plateau interior, often with internally drained endorheic basins, and the external steep areas, deeply incised by high-discharge rivers. This thesis uses a wide range of structural and tectonic approaches to investigate the evolution of the southern margin of the Central Anatolian Plateau (CAP), studying an area between the plateau interior and the Cyprus arc. Several findings are presented here that constrain the evolution, timing and possible causes behind the development of this area, and thus that of the CAP. After peneplanation of the regional orogeny, abroad regional subsidence took place in Miocene times in the absence of major extensional faults, which led to the formation of a large basin in the northeast Mediterranean. Late Tortonian and younger contractional structures developed in the interior of the plateau, in its margin and offshore, and forced the inversion tectonics that fragmented the early Miocene basin into the different present-day domains. The tectonic evolution of the southern margin of the CAP can be explained based on the initiation of subduction in south Cyprus and subsequent thermo-mechanical behavior of this subduction zone and the evolving rheology of the Anatolian plate. The Cyprus slab retreat and posterior pull drove subsidence first by relatively minor stretching of the crust and then by its flexure. The growth by accretion and thickening of the upper plate, and that of the associated forearc basins system, caused by accreting sediments, led to rheological changes at the base of the crust that allowed thermal weakening, viscous deformation, driving subsequent surface uplift and raising the modern Taurus Mountains. This mechanism could be responsible for the uplifted plateau-like areas seen in other accretionary margins. ISBN: 978-90-9028673-0


2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 402
Author(s):  
Qing-song YANG ◽  
Zhen WANG ◽  
Yu-kun CHEN ◽  
Lu-guang CHEN ◽  
Chao MA ◽  
...  

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