Effect of long-term tillage treatments on the temporal dynamics of water-stable aggregates and on macro-aggregate turnover at three German sites

This article addresses the extent to which economic downturns influence the perception of immigrants as an economic threat and through which channels this occurs. Our primary objective is an investigation of the specific mechanisms that connect economic conditions to the perception of immigrants as a threat. We therefore also contribute to theoretical discussions based on group threat and realistic group conflict theory by exposing the dominant source of competition relevant to these relationships. Furthermore, we investigate whether people react more sensitive to short-term economic dynamics within countries than to the long-term economic circumstances. Our database comprises all waves of the European Social Survey from 2002 to 2017. The macro-economic indicators we use include GDP per capita, unemployment, and national debt levels, covering the most salient economic dimensions. We furthermore control for the country’s migration situation and aggregate party positions toward cultural diversity. Our results show that the dynamic short-term developments of the economy and migration within countries are of greater relevance for perceived immigrant threat than the long-term situation. In contrast, the long-term political climate appears to be more important than short-term changes in the aggregate party positions. Further mediation analyses show that objective economic conditions influence anti-immigrant attitudes primarily through individual perceptions of the country’s economic performance and that unemployment rates are of primary importance.

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Global soil moisture data derived through machine learning trained with in-situ measurements

Scientific Data ◽

10.1038/s41597-021-00964-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Sungmin O. ◽

Rene Orth

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Soil Moisture ◽

Large Scale ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Soil Moisture Data ◽

Wide Range ◽

Global Soil

AbstractWhile soil moisture information is essential for a wide range of hydrologic and climate applications, spatially-continuous soil moisture data is only available from satellite observations or model simulations. Here we present a global, long-term dataset of soil moisture derived through machine learning trained with in-situ measurements, SoMo.ml. We train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to extrapolate daily soil moisture dynamics in space and in time, based on in-situ data collected from more than 1,000 stations across the globe. SoMo.ml provides multi-layer soil moisture data (0–10 cm, 10–30 cm, and 30–50 cm) at 0.25° spatial and daily temporal resolution over the period 2000–2019. The performance of the resulting dataset is evaluated through cross validation and inter-comparison with existing soil moisture datasets. SoMo.ml performs especially well in terms of temporal dynamics, making it particularly useful for applications requiring time-varying soil moisture, such as anomaly detection and memory analyses. SoMo.ml complements the existing suite of modelled and satellite-based datasets given its distinct derivation, to support large-scale hydrological, meteorological, and ecological analyses.

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Acute symptoms of mild to moderate COVID-19 are highly heterogeneous across individuals and over time

Open Forum Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/ofid/ofab090 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Thomas L Rodebaugh ◽

Madelyn R Frumkin ◽

Angela M Reiersen ◽

Eric J Lenze ◽

Michael S Avidan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Survey Methods ◽

Clinical Care ◽

Clinical Deterioration ◽

Symptom Profiles ◽

Fluctuating Course ◽

The Common ◽

Symptom Changes ◽

Over Time

Abstract Background The symptoms of COVID-19 appear to be heterogenous, and the typical course of these symptoms is unknown. Our objectives were to characterize the common trajectories of COVID-19 symptoms and assess how symptom course predicts other symptom changes as well as clinical deterioration. Methods 162 participants with acute COVID-19 responded to surveys up to 31 times for up to 17 days. Several statistical methods were used to characterize the temporal dynamics of these symptoms. Because nine participants showed clinical deterioration, we explored whether these participants showed any differences in symptom profiles. Results Trajectories varied greatly between individuals, with many having persistently severe symptoms or developing new symptoms several days after being diagnosed. A typical trajectory was for a symptom to improve at a decremental rate, with most symptoms still persisting to some degree at the end of the reporting period. The pattern of symptoms over time suggested a fluctuating course for many patients. Participants who showed clinical deterioration were more likely to present with higher reports of severity of cough and diarrhea. Conclusion The course of symptoms during the initial weeks of COVID-19 is highly heterogeneous and is neither predictable nor easily characterized using typical survey methods. This has implications for clinical care and early-treatment clinical trials. Additional research is needed to determine whether the decelerating improvement pattern seen in our data is related to the phenomenon of patients reporting long-term symptoms, and whether higher symptoms of diarrhea in early illness presages deterioration.

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MEG signatures of long-term effects of agreement and disagreement with the majority

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-82670-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

A. Gorin ◽

V. Klucharev ◽

A. Ossadtchi ◽

I. Zubarev ◽

V. Moiseeva ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Reinforcement Learning ◽

Social Influence ◽

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Peer Group ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Learning Mechanisms ◽

Source Imaging ◽

The Face ◽

First Session

AbstractPeople often change their beliefs by succumbing to an opinion of others. Such changes are often referred to as effects of social influence. While some previous studies have focused on the reinforcement learning mechanisms of social influence or on its internalization, others have reported evidence of changes in sensory processing evoked by social influence of peer groups. In this study, we used magnetoencephalographic (MEG) source imaging to further investigate the long-term effects of agreement and disagreement with the peer group. The study was composed of two sessions. During the first session, participants rated the trustworthiness of faces and subsequently learned group rating of each face. In the first session, a neural marker of an immediate mismatch between individual and group opinions was found in the posterior cingulate cortex, an area involved in conflict-monitoring and reinforcement learning. To identify the neural correlates of the long-lasting effect of the group opinion, we analysed MEG activity while participants rated faces during the second session. We found MEG traces of past disagreement or agreement with the peers at the parietal cortices 230 ms after the face onset. The neural activity of the superior parietal lobule, intraparietal sulcus, and precuneus was significantly stronger when the participant’s rating had previously differed from the ratings of the peers. The early MEG correlates of disagreement with the majority were followed by activity in the orbitofrontal cortex 320 ms after the face onset. Altogether, the results reveal the temporal dynamics of the neural mechanism of long-term effects of disagreement with the peer group: early signatures of modified face processing were followed by later markers of long-term social influence on the valuation process at the ventromedial prefrontal cortex.

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Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.2015.0173 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 282 (1806) ◽

pp. 20150173 ◽

Cited By ~ 37

Author(s):

Ayco J. M. Tack ◽

Tommi Mononen ◽

Ilkka Hanski

Keyword(s):

Population Dynamics ◽

Population Change ◽

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Summer Precipitation ◽

Life History Stage ◽

General Effect ◽

Spatial Synchrony ◽

Glanville Fritillary Butterfly ◽

Spatio Temporal

Climate change is known to shift species' geographical ranges, phenologies and abundances, but less is known about other population dynamic consequences. Here, we analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly ( Melitaea cinxia ) in a network of 4000 dry meadows during 21 years. The results demonstrate two strong, related patterns: the amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole has increased, though there is no long-term trend in average abundance; and there is a highly significant increase in the level of spatial synchrony in population dynamics. The increased synchrony cannot be explained by increasing within-year spatial correlation in precipitation, the key environmental driver of population change, or in per capita growth rate. On the other hand, the frequency of drought during a critical life-history stage (early larval instars) has increased over the years, which is sufficient to explain the increasing amplitude and the expanding spatial synchrony in metapopulation dynamics. Increased spatial synchrony has the general effect of reducing long-term metapopulation viability even if there is no change in average metapopulation size. This study demonstrates how temporal changes in weather conditions can lead to striking changes in spatio-temporal population dynamics.

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Effects of Long-Term Fertilization on the Distribution of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus in Water-Stable Aggregates in Paddy Soil

Agricultural Sciences in China ◽

10.1016/s1671-2927(11)60194-6 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 10 (12) ◽

pp. 1932-1940 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Wei WANG ◽

Wei-cai CHEN ◽

Kai-rong WANG ◽

Xiao-li XIE ◽

Chun-mei YIN ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Paddy Soil ◽

Nitrogen And Phosphorus ◽

Water Stable Aggregates

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Temporal dynamics of couples’ communication behaviors in conflict discussions: A longitudinal analysis

Journal of Social and Personal Relationships ◽

10.1177/0265407518806582 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 36 (9) ◽

pp. 2937-2960 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Lorena Leuchtmann ◽

Anne Milek ◽

Katharina Bernecker ◽

Fridtjof W. Nussbeck ◽

Sabine Backes ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Relationship Satisfaction ◽

Self Efficacy ◽

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Efficacy Beliefs ◽

Self Report ◽

Communication Behaviors ◽

Positive Communication ◽

Conflict Communication ◽

Negative Communication

Negative and positive conflict communication predicts long-term relationship satisfaction. However, some studies show harmful effects and others show beneficial effects of negative conflict communication on long-term relationship satisfaction. One reason for the heterogeneous results might be that most studies focused on aggregated behaviors across a conflict interaction but neglected the temporal dynamics within such an interaction. This study examined whether individual initial levels and temporal trajectories of negative and positive communications predict long-term relationship satisfaction, and whether self-efficacy beliefs about clarity of other’s feelings (CoF) alter initial levels and temporal trajectories of negative and positive communications. Negative and positive communications were measured based on sequentially coded conflict discussions of 365 couples; self-efficacy beliefs about CoF and relationship satisfaction were measured by self-report questionnaires at baseline and at four annual follow-up assessments. Results revealed that women’s initial positive communication predicted higher intercepts of both partners’ relationship satisfaction, and stronger decreases in women’s negative communication predicted a higher intercept of relationship satisfaction in women. Additionally, less steep decreases in women’s trajectories of negative communication predicted greater maintenance in women’s relationship satisfaction over time. Additionally, men’s self-efficacy beliefs about CoF predicted decreases in men’s negative communication, increases in women’s negative communication, and higher initial levels of women’s positive communication. The current study highlights the relevance of dynamic aspects of partners’ communication behaviors.

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Lake sedimentary DNA to reveal long-term changes in aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem functioning

ARPHA Conference Abstracts ◽

10.3897/aca.4.e65378 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 ◽

Author(s):

Isabelle Domaizon

Keyword(s):

Community Dynamics ◽

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Critical Research ◽

Aquatic Biodiversity ◽

Biological Variables ◽

Long Term Changes ◽

Research Questions ◽

Population And Community Dynamics ◽

Emerging Topics

The emergence of molecular analyses based on the sequencing of sedimentary DNA has opened up many new areas of inquiry in paleolimnology. DNA preserved in sediments (SedDNA) offers the possibility to consider taxa that were traditionally not accessible because they do not leave distinct morphological fossils. Recent applications that considered a diversity of biological groups (including bacteria, protists, zooplankton, fish) illustrate how efficiently SedDNA-based methods complement both classical paleolimnology proxies and limnological data. The knowledge gained from this approach is very diverse in scope, ranging from quantifying natural variability in population and community dynamics to understanding how these biological variables respond to anthropogenic disturbances and climatic change. The use of lake sedimentary DNA to track long-term changes in aquatic biota is a rapidly advancing field of research. Based on recent applications, this presentation illustrates (i) the potential and challenges associated with the study of SedDNA to address critical research questions in lacustrine ecology (ii) the main methodological precautions to be taken into account for implementing these types of DNA analyses (i.e. best practices) and (iii) the emerging topics that could be addressed using sedimentary DNA, in particular to reconstruct the temporal dynamics of lacustrine biodiversity.

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ESTIMATION OF LONG-TERM CHANGES IN QUALITATIVE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE OKA RIVER RUNOFF

Prirodoobustrojstvo ◽

10.26897/1997-6011-2021-5-98-104 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 98-104

Author(s):

G. KH. ISMAIYLOV ◽

◽

N. V. MURASCHENKOVA ◽

I. G. ISMAIYLOVA

Keyword(s):

River Runoff ◽

Maximum Concentration ◽

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Ammonium Nitrogen ◽

Oil Products ◽

Copper Compounds ◽

Long Term Changes ◽

The City ◽

Qualitative Characteristics

The results of the analysis and assessment of long-term changes in the qualitative characteristics of the Oka River runoff are presented. To analyze the temporal dynamics of the variability of the average annual and maximum concentrations of pollutants in the runoff of the Oka River, we used long-term observational data on typical pollutants for the period 1984-2019. The assessment of the state of the quality of surface waters of the Oka River was carried out according to the values of the concentrations of pollutants in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the river. The dynamics of the main pollutants of the following indicators is considered: ammonium nitrogen, oil products, copper and zinc compounds and easily oxidized organic substances. It was found that in the upper reaches of the river (according to observations of the Oka – Orel city) the main pollutants are ammonium nitrogen and copper compounds, the average annual concentrations of which respectively increased to 9 values. A similar situation was observed downstream of the river (the Oka River – Kaluga city). As a result of the analysis, it was revealed that more noticeable changes in the concentration of pollutants are observed in the section of the river from the city of Murom to the city of Dzerzhinsk. Near the city of Murom, the content of oil products in the water sharply increases. From the beginning of the study period (1984) and until 1995, the average annual concentration varied from 5 to 30 values, and the maximum concentration in the year in creased to 87 values. After 2000, the content of oil products in water dropped sharply and the average annual value did not exceed 3 values, and the maximum concentration was 4-6 values. The paper analyzes the frequency of cases of exceeding the maximum permissible concentrations of pollutants in the Oka River in the mouth of the river. There was a high repeatability of the content of copper compounds in water, which varied from 70 to 88%. The frequency of cases of excess of easily oxidized organic matter in the mouth of the Oka River varied from 64 to 74%. Relatively low, although stable, the repeatability of the content of oil products in water remained, which ranged from 23 to 42%.

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Surface-groundwater interactions in karst: overview, concept and mapping

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4572 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Natasa Ravbar ◽

Cyril Mayaud ◽

Matej Blatnik ◽

Metka Petrič

Keyword(s):

Environmental Changes ◽

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Field Measurements ◽

Spatial Dimension ◽

Karst Aquifers ◽

Wetland Ecosystems ◽

Spatial And Temporal Dynamics ◽

Ecohydrological Processes

<p>Under special meteorological and hydrological circumstances, shallow karst areas and karst poljes may experience surface water overflow. As a result, surface- groundwater interaction occurs usually creating intermittent lakes. Although human settlements and activities have traditionally adapted to these natural conditions, extensive temporary floods are classified among the most common natural disasters in karst. On the other hand, intermittent lakes are considered as natural reservoirs of excess recharge and good flood regulators in the lower parts of river basins. Due to specific ecohydrological processes and environmental conditions, these areas host unique wetland ecosystems with high levels of biodiversity and provide various ecosystem services, such as ecological productivity, photosynthesis and carbon storage. Given the dynamic nature of hydrological processes in karst aquifers, a distinctive feature of the phenomena described is its high variability of occurrence and duration. Therefore, the identification, characterization as well as the determination of the spatial dimension of flood levels is a challenging task. Focusing on the Slovenian karst, a literature review and analysis of topographical and hydrological data of the selected study areas was conducted. The hydrological analyses were based on long-term monitoring data from Slovenian Environmental Agency and partly on the authors' own database of field measurements and knowledge of the areas concerned. Consequently, the conceptual framework and the key criterion for the determination and recording of areas subject to temporary flooding were developed. A systematic survey reveals the significance of the extent, duration and frequency of flooding. Evaluation results are useful to designers of various water policies and management mechanisms for flood mitigation and protection of special habitats. Observing trends in the spatial and temporal dynamics of flood levels is also valuable for understanding how and to what extent karst aquifers are vulnerable to environmental changes. Finally, the analyses also enable prediction of the effects of these changes on other parts of the environment (e.g., hydrophilic habitats).</p>

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