Qualitative risk assessment in a data-scarce environment: A model to assess the impact of control measures on spread of African Swine Fever

Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

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A Qualitative Assessment of the Risk of Introducing Peste des Petits Ruminants into Northern Zambia from Tanzania

Veterinary Medicine International ◽

10.1155/2014/202618 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-10 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

R. Chazya ◽

J. B. Muma ◽

K. K. Mwacalimba ◽

E. Karimuribo ◽

E. Mkandawire ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Infected Animal ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

Qualitative Assessment ◽

Peste Des Petits Ruminants ◽

Trade Data ◽

Probability Of Occurrence ◽

Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽

In Transit ◽

The Impact

A qualitative risk assessment was performed to evaluate the risk of introducing Peste des petits ruminants virus into northern Zambia from Tanzania via live goat trade. Data was collected during a mission to Tanzania and northern Zambia and also from literature and interviews with experts. The risk of PPRV introduction was evaluated as a function of the probability of hazard (PPRV) release, exposure of susceptible hosts, and the consequences of spread using the following parameters: prevalence of infection, volume of trade, C-ELISA and quarantine screening missing an infected animal, PPRV viability (remaining infective) in transit, and the virus potential for infection. The magnitude of the consequences was derived from the probability of transmission and spread and the impact of PPRV introduction and establishment. Accordingly, the probability of occurrence of PPRV in northern Zambia from Tanzania was rated as “high” and the economic consequences were also rated as “high.” Finally, the overall risk of introducing PPRV into northern Zambia from Tanzania at the time of the assessment was rated “high.” It was concluded that import of goats and sheep be prohibited until efficient and adequate measures to reduce the risk have been put in place.

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The African swine fever control zone in South Africa and its current relevance

Onderstepoort Journal of Veterinary Research ◽

10.4102/ojvr.v83i1.1034 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 83 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Noluvuyo R. Magadla ◽

Wilna Vosloo ◽

Livio Heath ◽

Bruce Gummow

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Disease Control ◽

African Swine Fever ◽

Control Measures ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Boundary Line ◽

Control Line ◽

Control Zone ◽

Ornithodoros Moubata ◽

The Impact

African swine fever (ASF) has been reported in South Africa since the early 20th century. The disease has been controlled and confined to northern South Africa over the past 80 years by means of a well-defined boundary line, with strict control measures and movement restrictions north of this line. In 2012, the first outbreak of ASF outside the ASF control zone since 1996 occurred. The objective of this study was to evaluate the current relevance of the ASF control line as a demarcation line between endemic ASF (north) areas and ASF-free (south) area and to determine whether there was a need to realign its trajectory, given the recent outbreaks of ASF, global climate changes and urban development since the line’s inception. A study of ASF determinants was conducted in an area 20 km north and 20 km south of the ASF control line, in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West and Gauteng provinces between May 2008 and September 2012. The study confirmed that warthogs, warthog burrows and the soft tick reservoir, Ornithodoros moubata, are present south of the ASF control line, but no virus or viral DNA was detected in these ticks. There appears to be an increasing trend in the diurnal maximum temperature and a decrease in humidity along the line, but the impact of these changes is uncertain. No discernible changes in minimum temperatures and average rainfall along the disease control line were observed between 1992 and 2014. Even though the reservoirs were found south of the ASF boundary line, the study concluded that there was no need to realign the trajectory of the ASF disease control line, with the exception of Limpopo Province. However, the provincial surveillance programmes for the reservoir, vector and ASF virus south of this line needs to be maintained and intensified as changing farming practices may favour the spread of ASF virus beyond the control line.Keywords: African swine fever; warthog burrow; Ornithodoros moubata;control line

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Risk Management of Credit Card Payment Gateway using Octave Allegro Methodology At Electronic Payment Provider Institution

International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering - 2 ◽

10.35940/ijrte.d9514.118419 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 11831-11838

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Risk Management ◽

Credit Card ◽

Group Discussion ◽

Control Measures ◽

Internet Technology ◽

Card Payment ◽

Financial Transactions ◽

The Impact ◽

Payment Gateway

The use of internet technology is growing very fast which is driving the development of businesses in Indonesia, one of which is in the eCommerce sector. To support payment transactions conducted by e-commerce, in conducting this business, it is necessary to collaborate with business partner engaged in the payment gateways sector. Company partner engaged in the payment gateways sector to provide solutions to electronic financial transactions where one product is a credit card payment gateways. The purpose of this research is to make a risk assessment and risk management for audit certification credit card payment gateway Company. Risk assessment can help to know what are the risks that may occur, how big the impact of these risks, as well as recommendations related control measures must be carried out if the impact of these risks occur. This research using OCTAVE Allegro methodology to identify and evaluate information security risks credit card payment gateway. This research is qualitative research consisting of observation, conducting group discussion with the respondents. The respondend of this research are VP Development and Service Provisioning, VP Operation and Infrastructure, Manager Front End 1, Manager Back End 2, and Senior Programmer. Results of this research are 9 critical information assets in credit card payment gateway in COMPANY, such as : Card Holder Data & Customer Credential, Data Center, Physical Devices, Logical Storage, Logical Network, Supporting Software, Core Application, Encryption Key, and Human Resources. There are 21 risks that may occur during in credit card payment gateway. From 21 risks that were identified, obtained 15 risks are defer, 3 risks to be acceptable, and 3 risks should be mitigate.

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Assessment of the Impact on Human Health of the Presence of Norovirus in Bivalve Molluscs: What Data Do We Miss?

Foods ◽

10.3390/foods10102444 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (10) ◽

pp. 2444

Author(s):

Federica Savini ◽

Federica Giacometti ◽

Federico Tomasello ◽

Marta Pollesel ◽

Silvia Piva ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Food Safety ◽

Human Health ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Bivalve Molluscs ◽

Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽

Biological Hazard ◽

European Regulations ◽

Fish And Fishery Products ◽

The Impact

In the latest One Health ECDC EFSA technical report, Norovirus in fish and fishery products have been listed as the agent/food pair causing the highest number of strong-evidence outbreaks in the EU in 2019. This review aims to identify data gaps that must be filled in order to increase knowledge on Norovirus in bivalve molluscs, perform a risk assessment and rank the key mitigation strategies for this biological hazard, which is relevant to public health. Virologic determinations are not included in any of the food safety and process hygiene microbiologic criteria reflected in the current European regulations. In addition, the Escherichia coli-based indices of acceptable faecal contamination for primary production, as well as the food safety criteria, do not appear sufficient to indicate the extent of Norovirus contamination. The qualitative risk assessment data collected in this review suggests that bivalve molluscs present a high risk to human health for Norovirus only when consumed raw or when insufficiently cooked. On the contrary, the risk can be considered negligible when they are cooked at a high temperature, while information is still scarce for non-thermal treatments.

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THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL FUNDAMENTALS OF SELECTION OF AGROINNOVATIVE PROJECTS ON THE BASIS OF THEIR RISK ASSESSMENT

HERALD of Khmelnytskyi national university ◽

10.31891/2307-5740-2020-288-6-43 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 288 (6) ◽

pp. 261-265

Author(s):

L. Tesheva ◽

◽

V. Hryshchenko ◽

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Quantitative Methods ◽

Impact Analysis ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Inclusive Development ◽

Economic Research ◽

Use Of Resources ◽

Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽

The Impact ◽

Selection Of

The focus on the simultaneous solution of social, economic and environmental problems allows to form programs of sustainable and inclusive development, which should be based on innovative projects that provide more efficient use of resources with higher returns, increase productivity, increase the level of intellectualization of production. A special feature of innovative projects is their high level of risk. This has a decisive influence on management decisions regarding their implementation. That is why risk assessment of innovative projects occupies a special place in the field of economic research. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the theoretical and methodological principles of selection of innovative projects by the subjects of the agricultural sector of the economy on the basis of the proposed methods of assessing their risk. It has been established that one of the key aspects of comparing projects and portfolios is risk consideration. The list of risk groups of innovative projects is established. It is proposed to use evaluation by quantitative methods (statistical, analytical, cost-effectiveness method, normative method) and qualitative (impact analysis, probability of loss analysis, expert method). As a result of evaluation, data sets are formed for each individual project, which include the values of quantitative indicators of the effects of agroinnovation, ranking values for qualitative parameters of achieving benefits, quantitative values of risks and integral value for qualitative risk assessment determined using fuzzy sets. The process of assessing the impact of risks on the qualitative parameters of the effects of the implementation of agro-innovative projects and the procedure for assessing the generalized impact of risks on all qualitative parameters on the project using the fuzzy set method are detailed. The implementation of the developed algorithm allows to ensure a synergistic effect from the interaction of agro-innovative projects in the process of ensuring the innovative development of the agricultural sector of Ukraine’s economy.

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Chronic Wasting Disease Transmission Risk Assessment for Farmed Cervids in Minnesota and Wisconsin

Viruses ◽

10.3390/v13081586 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (8) ◽

pp. 1586

Author(s):

James M. Kincheloe ◽

Dennis N. Makau ◽

Scott J. Wells ◽

Amy R. Horn-Delzer

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

Chronic Wasting Disease ◽

Control Measures ◽

Transmission Risk ◽

Effective Control ◽

Wasting Disease ◽

Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽

Low Uncertainty ◽

High Uncertainty

CWD (chronic wasting disease) has emerged as one of the most important diseases of cervids and continues to adversely affect farmed and wild cervid populations, despite control and preventive measures. This study aims to use the current scientific understanding of CWD transmission and knowledge of farmed cervid operations to conduct a qualitative risk assessment for CWD transmission to cervid farms and, applying this risk assessment, systematically describe the CWD transmission risks experienced by CWD-positive farmed cervid operations in Minnesota and Wisconsin. A systematic review of literature related to CWD transmission informed our criteria to stratify CWD transmission risks to cervid operations into high-risk low uncertainty, moderate-risk high uncertainty, and negligible-risk low uncertainty categories. Case data from 34 CWD-positive farmed cervid operations in Minnesota and Wisconsin from 2002 to January 2019 were categorized by transmission risks exposure and evaluated for trends. The majority of case farms recorded high transmission risks (56%), which were likely sources of CWD, but many (44%) had only moderate or negligible transmission risks, including most of the herds (62%) detected since 2012. The presence of CWD-positive cervid farms with only moderate or low CWD transmission risks necessitates further investigation of these risks to inform effective control measures.

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Dynamical analysis of the spread of African swine fever with the live pig price in China

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering ◽

10.3934/mbe.2021403 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (6) ◽

pp. 8123-8148

Author(s):

Yihao Huang ◽

◽

Jing Li ◽

Juan Zhang ◽

Zhen Jin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Supply And Demand ◽

African Swine Fever ◽

Control Measures ◽

Basic Reproductive Number ◽

Dynamical Analysis ◽

Critical Conditions ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

Price Function ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact

<abstract><p>Pork makes up the highest proportion of household expenditure on meat in China and supply and demand have been basically stable in the past decade. However, the catastrophic outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in August 2018 disrupted the balance and reduced the national herd by half within six months. The consequence was a gross lack of supply to the market and consumer demand was unable to be met. Accordingly, live pig prices rose sharply from 2019. In order to assess the influence of ASF on the price of the live pigs, we use a price function to characterize the relationship between price of the live pigs and the nation's pig stock, and then establish a time delay ASF epidemic dynamical model with the price function. By analyzing the dynamical behaviors of the model, we calculate the basic reproductive number, discuss the stability of equilibrium, and obtain the critical conditions for Hopf bifurcation. The model reasonableness is confirmed by carrying out data fitting and parameter estimation based on price data of the live pigs, the pig stock data and the outbreak data of ASF. By performing sensitivity analysis, we intuitively show the impact of ASF on the price of live pigs and the pig stocks, and assess the key factors affecting the outbreak of ASF. The conclusion is drawn that, with the control measures adopted by related government department in China, the basic reproductive number ($ R_0 = 0.6005 $) means that the ASF epidemic has been controlled. Moreover, the price of the live pig increases linearly with $ R_0 $, while the effect of the number of infected pigs on the subsequent price is non-linear related. Our findings suggest that society and the government should pay more attention to the prevention of animal disease epidemics.</p></abstract>

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Application of Gustav in Entertainment Places Fire Risk Assessment

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.668-669.1413 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 668-669 ◽

pp. 1413-1416

Author(s):

Yun Tao Zhao ◽

Jia Wang

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Assessment Method ◽

Control Measures ◽

Risk Level ◽

Risk Levels ◽

Full Life Cycle ◽

Fire Risk Assessment ◽

The Impact

Entertainment places have special structure; large fire load, personnel-intensive features, and function layout often change in the process of operation, so the fire risk level will change frequently. The current fire risk assessment studies for only one stage in entertainment places without considering the impact of risk factors at different stages. For this situation, this paper presents a fire risk assessment method in entertainment places based on full life cycle, divides the entertainment places into different stages, analyzes risk factors at different stages, and then uses the method of Gustav to get the fire risk levels of different stages. The assessment results show that the level of fire risk in entertainment places are different at different stages, you can take the appropriate risk control measures against fire risk factors at different stages, which has important guiding significance for fire risk management in entertainment places.

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Cardiovascular risk management in COPD patients: impact of the new Dutch guideline

BJGP Open ◽

10.3399/bjgpopen20x101139 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. bjgpopen20X101139

Author(s):

Lonneke Maria Elisabeth Nies ◽

Looijmans I ◽

Rozendaal Rozendaal ◽

Brenda Baar ◽

Rimke C Vos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Primary Care ◽

High Risk ◽

Care Program ◽

Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽

Copd Patients ◽

Increased Risk ◽

The Impact ◽

Very High

Background: Patients with COPD have an independent increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease. CV-risk (CVR) assessment should be offered to all COPD-patients according to the new Dutch ‘CVR management’ (CVRM) guideline (May-2019). Aim: To evaluate the impact of this new guideline for the care of COPD-patients in primary care. Design and Setting: A retrospective study within five primary healthcare centres located in the Netherlands. Methods: In accordance with the guideline we estimated and categorized the CVR of all COPD-patients. Data from 2014–2019 were used for the qualitative risk assessment based on comorbidities, and the quantitative Systematic Coronary Risk Assessment (SCORE). In addition, we investigated the guideline-based follow-up. Results: Of the 391 COPD-patients, 84.1% (n=329) had complete data on CVR assessment: 90.3% (n=297) had a (very)-high risk and 9.7% (n=32) a low-to-moderate risk. Of the patients with (very)-high risk, 73.4% (n=218) received guideline-based follow-up (primary care: 95.4%, secondary care: 4.6%). In 15.9% (n=62) of all COPD-patients, the CVR profile was not measured and of the (very)-high-risk patients, 26.6% (n=79) was not enrolled in a CV-care program. Conclusion: Whereas in the majority of patients the CVR is already known, for one out of six COPD-patients this CVR still has to be assessed according to the recently updated guideline. Moreover, once a (very)-high risk has been assessed, as a consequence CV treatment of risk factors should be intensified in one out of four COPD-patients. Adherence to the new CVRM guideline could provide improvement in CVRM in more than a third of all COPD-patients.

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