The Sino-Japanese Rapprochement: A Relationship of Ambivalence

1974 ◽  
Vol 57 ◽  
pp. 101-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gene T. Hsiao

The Nixon administration's new China policy has had many political repercussions in the world, among the most important being the Sino-Japanese rapprochement. From a long-term point of view, such a rapprochement would, of course, have occurred regardless of the Nixon policy. As early as 1951, Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida made the realistic remark: “Red or white, China remains our next-door neighbour. Geography and economic laws will, I believe, prevail in the long run over any ideological differences and artificial trade barriers.”

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Haposan Orlando Napitupulu ◽  
Ana Arifatus Sa'diyah ◽  
Farah Mutiara

This study aims to analyze the integration of the Arabica and Robusta coffee markets in Indonesia with world coffee prices. The study uses secondary data in the form of annual time series data during the period 1985 - 2015. The study uses the VECM analysis method. This method explains the relationship of long-term dynamic equilibrium and short-term equilibrium in a system of equations. The analysis shows that Indonesian and world Arabica coffee is not integrated in the long term or the short term. In Robusta coffee VECM estimation analysis shows that there is a significant value at the 10% level in a long-term relationship with a value of 0.08579, which means that there is a short-term relationship between world Robusta coffee prices and domestic Robusta coffee prices in the previous year, but no relationship in the long run.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14(63) (1) ◽  
pp. 153-168
Author(s):  
Klara-Dalma Deszke ◽  
Liliana Duguleana

The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) are used to estimate the cointegration in the case of long-run relationship of quarterly GDP and Final Consumption in Romania during the period 1995 – 2019. The actual data of 2020 Q1 and Q2 were used to check the best model’s validity. The static and dynamic approaches of the ARDL model were used to forecast the Final Consumption for Q3 and Q4 of the year 2020. Applying the cointegration model shows the long term relationship of GDP and Final Consumption, but also the effects of other factors, seen in the differences of Final Consumption from its Long-Run evolution, and comprised in the cointegrating terms.


2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-82
Author(s):  
Livia Gomes Viana-Meireles ◽  
Daiany Mayara De França Saldanha ◽  
Danielle Maria Pereira Menescal ◽  
Raiany Kelly Abreu de Oliveira ◽  
Ricardo Hugo Gonzalez

INTRODUÇÃO: No contexto dos projetos sociais percebe-se um grande impacto no desenvolvimento dos participantes, quando ocorre com crianças e adolescentes, os ganhos nos aspectos fisiológicos e psicoemocionais podem ser ainda maiores. No entanto, na atual conjuntura política percebe-se uma diminuição de apoio de políticas públicas relacionadas ao esporte. OBJETIVO: Diante desse contexto esportivo o objetivo deste ensaio é aliar a Teoria Bioecológica de Bronfenbrenner e o Modelo Conceitual de Saúde para elucidar os impactos e implicações da participação jovens em projetos sociais esportivos, bem como contribuir na planificação, implementação e avaliação de ações de um projeto social. MÉTODOS: Trata-se de um ensaio teórico que propõe a sistematização dos impactos de um projeto social esportivo no desenvolvimento de jovens e demonstrar os indicadores que um projeto pode apresentar para que se justifique o seu funcionamento. RESULTADOS: As teorias embasam os argumentos que justificam a importância de investimento público na participação esportiva como fator de proteção ao desenvolvimento de jovens, principalmente aqueles em situação de vulnerabilidade. O desenvolvimento de ações organizadas e que possam funcionar, em longo prazo, é fundamental para isso. CONCLUSÃO: Os projetos sociais devem se organizar por meio de ações que desenvolvam as habilidades socioemocionais, invistam na relação de treinadores e atletas, na expressão dos sentimentos e na possibilidade de funcionamento em longo prazo para que garantam a sustentabilidade e atendam os interesses de todos os atores envolvidos, principalmente os participantes. Conclui-se que os projetos sociais devem se alicerçar em teorias que sustentem suas ações. Os impactos positivos, nos aspectos socioemocionais, são essenciais na vida dos jovens que auxilia na proteção das crises existências, na melhora o autoconceito e na promoção da autodeterminação. ABSTRACT. Social sports projects for adolescents in Brazil: impacts, implications and barriers. BACKGROUND: In the context of social projects, there is a great impact on the development of participants, when it occurs with children and adolescents, the gains in the physiological and psycho-emotional aspects can be even greater. However, in the current political situation, there is a decrease in support for public policies related to sport. OBJECTIVE: Given this sporting context, the objective of this essay is to combine Bronfenbrenner’s Bioecological Theory and the Conceptual Health Model to elucidate the impacts and implications of youth participation in social sports projects, as well as to contribute to the planning, implementation and evaluation of actions of a social project. METHODS: This is a theoretical essay that proposes to systematize the impacts of a social sports project on the development of young people and to demonstrate the indicators that a project can present to justify its functioning. RESULTS: Theories support the arguments that justify the importance of public investment in sports participation as a protective factor for the development of young people, especially those in situations of vulnerability. The development of organized actions that can work in the long run is essential for this. CONCLUSION: Social projects must be organized through actions that develop socio-emotional skills, invest in the relationship of coaches and athletes, in the expression of feelings and in the possibility of long-term functioning to ensure sustainability and meet the interests of all stakeholders. actors involved, especially the participants. It is concluded that social projects must be based on theories that support their actions. The positive impacts, in socio-emotional aspects, are essential in the lives of young people, which helps to protect the existence of crises, improve self-concept and promote self-determination.


Author(s):  
Екатерина Шеина ◽  
Олим Астанакулов

В статье рассматривается историческая эволюция и сравнительные характеристики методов финансирования, которые классифицируются авторами как традиционные, переходные и инновационные. В процессе исследования применяются методы причинно-следственного и структурно- логического анализа, что позволяет перейти от теоретического обзора методов финансирования к изучению особенностей инновационных источников финансирования на основе крауд-платформ с точки зрения ресурсов, инвесторов и механизма реализации. Полученные результаты исследования подчеркивают значимость и необходимость внедрения новых финансовых технологий в рамках общей цифровизации в части краудфандинга, краудинвестинга и краудлен- динга в экономику России, что позволит обеспечить устойчивый экономический рост российским предприятиям. At all stages of the economy development and growth the issue of creating the system of financial sources, affordable and meeting the demands of the business entities financial activities, was one of the most acute. Fundamentally new sources and methods of the enterprises financing are being developed due to the world community entering the fourth industrial revolution. The traditional methods, such as bank lending, commercial lending, payables, leasing, factoring, venture financing and issuing securities can no longer be completely adequate to the occurring changes speed and mobility, including the financial sector and the field of capital formation. The authors of the article considered the features of the modern financial market, analyzed the methods of financing depending on the period of financing (short-term, medium-term, long-term), as well as on the extent of the company treatment (internal and external sources). Based on the systematization and generalization of the scientific and practical ground in this area, the authors developed and logically proved their own classification of financing methods, conventionally divided into groups according to the historical chronology - traditional, transitional, and innovative. The most challenging from the point of view of the internet technologies development and the general digitalization of the economy are such forms as crowdfunding, crowdinvesting and crowdlending. The authors provided the comparative analysis of the funding sources which are included into these groups and proved the necessity for developing and introducing the crowding technologies into the country's economy. To understand and implement the practical mechanism for introducing the Crowd technologies into the modern financial sector of the Russian Federation, the authors analyzed the applicable regulatory framework and demonstrated the essentiality of introducing an appropriate federal legislation that would legalize the basic concepts in this area and would reduce the risks of the crowd transactions participants. As an illustration, confirming the possibility of introducing these financial instruments, the authors considered such factors as the volume of transactions and the main indicators of crowdfunding in the world. The recommendations of the authors are aimed at simplifying and accelerating Russia's joining the world of financial innovations, which would ensure sustainable economic growth for Russian enterprises.


2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (7) ◽  
pp. 515
Author(s):  
Dwi Purnamasari ◽  
Raditya Sukmana

This research aims to know the influence of long-term and short-term world gold price, the price of crude oil to the world, and the index of industrial production against the stock index at the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) during the period January to December 2015-2015. The object of this research is the stock index at the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Types of data used are secondary data. This research method using technical analysis with quantitative method of Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The results showed that significant influence world gold prices in the long term and the short term against a stock index of JII. While the price of crude oil the world significant negative effect on the long run, and a significant positive effect on the short term. The index of industrial production turned out to be only a significant effect in the long term, but not in the short term.


Equilibrium ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 675-695
Author(s):  
Sami Oinonen ◽  
Matti Viren

Research background: At the background, there are issues related to policy credibility and policy targets. For these issues, long-term forecasts can provide important information. Of course, long-term forecasts are needed also e.g. for evaluation of real returns. Purpose of the article: This paper tries to find out how informative the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters data on long-term inflation prospects are from the point of view of the overall quality of the survey and on the other hand from the point of view of monetary policy credibility. Methods: The analysis makes use of individual forecaster level quarterly panel data for the period 1999Q1?2018Q4. Conventional panel econometrics tools are used to find out whether forecasts are sensitive to changes in actual inflation and other relevant variables. Findings & Value added: We find some weaknesses considering the size of the survey, the selection of the sample (more precisely the participation to the survey) and the inertial responses of forecasters which suggest that the survey values are not actively updated. Moreover, we find that towards the end of the sample period, the survey values are related to actual inflation and to short-term expectations, which is not consistent with the credibility of the official inflation target. 


The maximum output of the solar receiver is achieved when the solar receiver is perpendicular to the Sun's rays. Different attempts were made for making the solar receiver utilizing the maximum portion of incident solar radiation. The use of a dual-axis sun tracker versus a fixed-flat position is evidently profitable, but from economic point of view it is questionable. A mathematical conception has been developed and applied in this chapter to determine the energy gain resulted from different installations of PV systems. The experimental measurements and the model results show that, it is not economical to track the sun in hot and sunny regions because of the overheating effect on the PV panels' performance. The provided data, in literature, compare the performance of dual or single axis tracking with fixed solar receiver even the long term solar tracking is possible and effective with a negligible increase of the price of the unit of useful energy. This can be achieved by choosing the best monthly or even seasonally optimum tilts. The introduced concept of energy gain, see chapter 3, is calculated in this chapter all over the world and it was found that it is very useful in evaluating the performance of different types of tracking. This concept allows to evaluate the effectiveness of daily, weekly, fortnightly, monthly, seasonally, biannually and yearly adjustment of the solar receiver tilt angle in relation with the ideal instantaneous dual tracking.


Stanovnistvo ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Zdravkovic ◽  
Ivana Domazet ◽  
Vladimir Nikitovic

Population ageing is a global phenomenon without precedent in the history of humanity having implications in all facets of life. From an economic point of view, population ageing is certainly one of the biggest challenges of modern time. A consequence of these global demographic tendencies reflected in growing number of pensioners which negatively affects sustainability of public pension systems financed by the principle of intergenerational solidarity (Pay-As-You-Go) - widely represented in public pension schemes of European countries. In this paper, impact of demographic ageing on pension systems is analyzed in the context of sustainability of public finance in Serbia in the period 2010-2050. Although the comparative analysis of the pension expenditure share in gross domestic product (GDP) does not point to significant differences between Serbia and the countries in the neighborhood and the European Union, the growth trend of subsidizing the Pension Fund from the government budget endangers medium-term sustainability of the public pension system in Serbia, bearing in mind that the implementation of measures proposed in pension reforms can be valorized only in the long run. The main objective of the analysis is projecting long-term pension expenditure as a share of GDP. The projections were formed indirectly by modeling the average pension expenditure, because this variable incorporates both growth in the total pension expenditure and growth in the number of pensioners as a result of demographic trends, and better reflects the actual growth of pension expenditure. For the purposes of the analysis, in addition to the projection of real GDP growth, size of the inactive population aged 65 and over, as the main contingent of the pension system users and the total number of pensioners, was projected by means of stochastic cohort component methodology. Based on these projections and assumptions about the growth rate of average pension expenditure (three scenarios), the projections of total pension expenditure (as a percentage of GDP) are produced for the period 2010-2050. The results indicate that the growth rate of pension expenditure over the past few years is unsustainable in the long run. However, there is fiscal space for continuous real growth of pensions that does not jeopardize the budget deficit on the medium term, and leads to long-term reduction of the share of pension expenditures in GDP. The proposed change would not affect sustainability of the pension system and consequently public finance in Serbia, even in completely certain circumstances of significant increase in the number of elderly and their pressure on the workforce. In this context, critical review of the current government approach to the pension growth dynamics was given from the perspective of medium-term sustainability of pension system, which resulted in appropriate recommendations. Generally, the intent of the Government of the Republic of Serbia on the indexation of pensions represent a good solution long term, but the premise of increasing pensions for a part of real GDP growth, if it is higher than 4%, is subject to criticism from the point of view of medium-term sustainability. The crisis cycle of the Serbian economy, similarly to that on a global level, has its maximum and minimum phase. After a maximum of the crisis is reached, there should be a few years of economic stagnation followed by gradual, and then by faster economic growth. Due to the projection of a relatively higher rate of economic growth and GDP in a future economic recovery, there is an increased risk that such a growth could be followed by sudden jumps in the growth of pensions, which could result in unsustainable funding of pension system. Therefore, the Government should impose some limitations in terms of the maximum increase in pension per annum in case of intensive and high economic growth.


2021 ◽  
pp. 114-116
Author(s):  
Samuel Cohn

This chapter highlights corruption. Maintaining the integrity of government is integral to societal functioning. But what causes governments to become corrupt? It is not a matter of simple morality; it is not the case that evil people take bribes and good people do not take bribes. Nor is it the case that ethical standards are high in the United States and Europe, and low in the rest of the world. Every country has its own rituals and its own style of handling informal payments. One method is to invoke chivalry and the need for the strong to protect the weak. These exchanges can represent a fundamental alliance and relationship of long-term mutual assistance. Often corruption occurs while maintaining all outward appearances of complete professionalism. The chapter then explains how bribery works, an activity which requires skill and sophistication.


2007 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 167-192
Author(s):  
Gabriel Louis Moyal

Abstract Diplomacy Beyond Language: François Guizot and Translation — Neglecting to mention translation, ignoring the need or even the presence of translation is common practice in non-literary French writing in the first half of the nineteenth century. Still, in the case of François Guizot (1787-1874) such neglect seems to have a more deliberate motivation. Before becoming prime minister of France or ambassador to England, Guizot had translated several important English texts into French. His later marginalization of linguistic difference appears more rooted in his ideological perspective on history. Guizot's writings on French and English history and on the evolution of language seem to indicate that, for him, in the long run of history, translation would become obsolete. Nations, like languages, appear, from his point of view, to be drifting towards an ultimate unity, to flow irresistibly towards a Utopian equality wherein differences — political or linguistic — will ultimately be dissolved.


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