Should More Polls Be Interpreted as Too Close to Call?

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (02) ◽  
pp. 329-332
Author(s):  
Walter W. Hill
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
The State ◽  
Horse Race ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Margin Of Error ◽  
The Difference

AbstractDuring political campaigns the spread between the popularity of the candidates is a common metric capturing the state of the horse-race feature of the campaign. One candidate is said to be ahead of another by an indicated number of percentage points. If the difference is less than the margin of error, the race is considered too close to call. In two-person races, however, the spread corresponds to a much smaller confidence level than is usually reported because the two numbers used to compute the spread are not independent. The size of the confidence interval that is typically reported is incorrect by a factor of two. Therefore, some spreads that are reported as decisive are races too close to call.

scholarly journals Climate change in the American Mind: April 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Leiserowitz ◽  
Edward Maibach ◽  
Seth A. Rosenthal ◽  
John Kotcher ◽  
Parrish Bergquist ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Climate Change Communication ◽  
American Mind ◽  
University Center ◽  
Change Communication ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Margin Of Error ◽  
Nationally Representative

This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey – Climate Change in the American Mind – conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (climatecommunication.yale.edu) and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication (climatechangecommunication.org). Interview dates: April 7 – 17, 2020. Interviews: 1,029 Adults (18+). Average margin of error +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Analysis of the horizontal structure of a measurement and control geodetic network based on entropy

2013 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Mrówczyńska
Keyword(s):  
Geodetic Network ◽  
The State ◽  
Observation System ◽  
Optimum Number ◽  
Optimum Structure ◽  
Horizontal Structure ◽  
The Difference ◽  
And Control ◽  
Measurement And Control ◽  
Horizontal Displacements

Abstract The paper attempts to determine an optimum structure of a directional measurement and control network intended for investigating horizontal displacements. For this purpose it uses the notion of entropy as a logarithmical measure of probability of the state of a particular observation system. An optimum number of observations results from the difference of the entropy of the vector of parameters ΔHX̂ (x)corresponding to one extra observation. An increment of entropy interpreted as an increment of the amount of information about the state of the system determines the adoption or rejection of another extra observation to be carried out.

TO THE PROBLEMS OF COMBATING CORRUPTION IN MODERN RUSSIA AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN THE FIELD OF ANTI-CORRUPTION

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela Dranishnikova
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
The State ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Modern Life ◽  
Existing Problems ◽  
Moral Point ◽  
Material Goods ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government

In the article, the author reflects the existing problems of the fight against corruption in the Russian Federation. He focuses on the opacity of the work of state bodies, leading to an increase in bribery and corruption. The topic we have chosen is socially exciting in our days, since its significance is growing on a large scale at all levels of the investigated aspect of our modern life. Democratic institutions are being jeopardized, the difference in the position of social strata of society in society’s access to material goods is growing, and the state of society is suffering from the moral point of view, citizens are losing confidence in the government, and in the top officials of the state.

Perbedaan Metode Three Compartement Sink dengan Air Panas dan Larutan Klorin terhadap Angka Kuman Alat Makan di RSU Queen Latifa

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 126-130
Author(s):  
Rifatun Hasanah ◽  
Setyowati Setyowati ◽  
Noor Tifauzah
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
T Test ◽  
Hot Water ◽  
Independent Test ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Hospital Use

Background:One of the efforts in preventing congenital food disease is by washing the cutlery perfectly. The cutlery used by patients with infectious diseases should be noted more, because it has a risk in disease transmission through cutlery. The process of washing the cutlery for infected patients in Queen Latifa Hospital use three compartement sink method with hot water, while the three compartement sink method with clorine solvent has never been tested. Purpose: Research was to determine the difference in the number of germs in the tool was washed using three compartement sink method with hot water and with clorine solvent. Method:Types of research is experiment with rancangan percobaan acak kelompok (RAK). The object of this research is 4 plates and 4 bowls. The number of experimental units in this research were 2 treatments x 2 cutlery x 2 checks x 2 reapetitions = 16 experimental units. The analysis used independent t-test with 95% confidence level. Result :The average number of germs in the cutlery washed using the three compartment sink method with hot water was 1 x 101 cfu / cm2, whereas with chlorine solvent is 0.2 cfu / cm2. Independent test t-test shows p = 0.049 which means the hypothesis is accepted. onclusion : There are differences in the number of germs in the washing cutlery using the three compartment sink method with hot water and with chlorine solvent.   Keywords: number of germs, cutlery, three compartment sink

Perbedaan Metode Three Compartement Sink dengan Air Panas dan Larutan Klorin terhadap Angka Kuman Alat Makan di RSU Queen Latifa

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 126
Author(s):  
Rifatun Hasanah ◽  
Setyowati Setyowati ◽  
Noor Tifauzah
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
T Test ◽  
Hot Water ◽  
Independent Test ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Hospital Use

Background:One of the efforts in preventing congenital food disease is by washing the cutlery perfectly. The cutlery used by patients with infectious diseases should be noted more, because it has a risk in disease transmission through cutlery. The process of washing the cutlery for infected patients in Queen Latifa Hospital use three compartement sink method with hot water, while the three compartement sink method with clorine solvent has never been tested. Purpose: Research was to determine the difference in the number of germs in the tool was washed using three compartement sink method with hot water and with clorine solvent. Method:Types of research is experiment with rancangan percobaan acak kelompok (RAK). The object of this research is 4 plates and 4 bowls. The number of experimental units in this research were 2 treatments x 2 cutlery x 2 checks x 2 reapetitions = 16 experimental units. The analysis used independent t-test with 95% confidence level. Result :The average number of germs in the cutlery washed using the three compartment sink method with hot water was 1 x 101 cfu / cm2, whereas with chlorine solvent is 0.2 cfu / cm2. Independent test t-test shows p = 0.049 which means the hypothesis is accepted. Conclusion : There are differences in the number of germs in the washing cutlery using the three compartment sink method with hot water and with chlorine solvent.

Pengaruh Jumlah Pencucian Beras dengan Kadar Klorin

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Indah Purwaningsih ◽  
Supriyanto Supriyanto
Keyword(s):  
Mucous Membrane ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Iodometric Titration ◽  
Titration Method ◽  
Anova Test ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Difference

Abstract: Chlorine is a green halogen-shaped halogen gas at normal temperature and serves as bleach, stain remover and disinfectant. Chlorine is now widely used for bleaching rice so that less quality rice looks like quality rice. Chlorine is very toxic and causes mucous membrane irritation, highly reactive and very powerful oxidizer. The purpose of this research was to determine the difference of chlorine level in chlorinated rice washed once, twice and 3 times. The sample in this study amounted to 11 samples calculated by replication formula. Each sample was treated 3 times, ie 1 washed once, 2 washed twice and washed 3 times. The samples then examined by iodometric titration method. Based on the results of the study using ANOVA test, 11 samples obtained the average value of chlorine after washed once amount of 0.0176%, after washed twice amount of 0.0111%, and after washed 3 times amount of 0.0052% with the value significance p = 0.03 (p <0.05) at 95% confidence level which means there was a significant difference between chlorine levels in chlorinated rice washed once, twice and 3 times.Abstrak: Klorin merupakan unsur halogen berbentuk gas berwarna kuning kehijauan pada suhu normal danberfungsi sebagai pemutih, penghilang noda maupun desinfektan. Klorin sekarang banyak digunakan untuk bahan pemutih beras agar beras yang kurang berkualitas tampak seperti beras berkualitas. Klorin sangat toksik dan menyebabkan iritasi membran mukosa, sangat reaktif dan merupakan oksidator yang sangat kuat. Tujuan dari penelitian ini ialah untuk mengetahui perbedaan kadar klorin pada beras berklorin yang dicuci sebanyak 1 kali, 2 kali dan 3 kali. Sampel dalam penelitian ini berjumlah 11 sampel yang dihitung dengan rumus replikasi. Setiap sampel diberi perlakuan sebanyak 3 kali, yaitu 1 kali pencucian, 2 kali pencucian dan 3 kali pencucian. Sampel penelitian kemudian diperiksa dengan metode titrasi iodometri. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian menggunakan uji Anova secara komputerisasi terhadap 11 sampel diperoleh nilai rata-rata kadar klorin setelah 1 kali pencucian sebesar 0,0176 %, setelah 2 kali pencucian sebesar 0,0111 %, dan setelah 3 kali pencucian sebesar 0,0052 % dengan nilai signifkansi p = 0,03 (p<0,05) pada tingkat kepercayaan 95% yang artinya ada perbedaan yang bermakna antara kadar klorin pada beras berklorin yang dicuci sebanyak 1 kali, 2 kali dan 3 kali.

Konsep Distribusi Pendapatan Dalam Islam

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-97
Author(s):  
Moh. Ah. Subhan ZA
Keyword(s):  
Property Rights ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Private Property ◽  
Wealth Distribution ◽  
The State ◽  
Private Property Rights ◽  
Job Opportunities ◽  
The Rich ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Distribution Of Income

The main problem of social life in the community is about how to make the allocation and distribution of income well. Inequality and poverty basically arise not because of the difference of anyone’s strength and weakness in getting livelihood, but because of inappropriate distribution mechanism. With the result that wealth treasure just turns on the rich wealthy, which is in turn, results in the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.Therefore, a discussion on distribution becomes main focus of theory of Islamic economics. Moreover, the discussion of the distribution is not only related to economic issues, but also social and political aspects. On the other side, the economic vision of Islam gives priority to the guarantee of the fulfillment of a better life. Islam emphasizes distributive justice and encloses, in its system, a program for the redistribution of wealth and prosperity, so that each individual is guaranteed with a respectable and friendly standard of living. Islam recognizes private property rights, but the private property rights must be properly distributed. The personal property is used for self and family livelihood, for investment of the working capital, so that it can provide job opportunities for others, for help of the others through zakat, infaq, and shodaqoh. In this way, the wealth not only rotates on the rich, bringing on gap in social life.The problem of wealth distribution is closely related to the welfare of society. Therefore, the state has a duty to regulate the distribution of income in order that the distribution can be fair and reaches appropriate target. The state could at least attempt it by optimizing the role of BAZ (Badan Amil Zakat) and LAZ (Lembaga Amil Zakat) which has all this time been slack. If BAZ and LAZ can be optimized, author believes that inequality and poverty over time will vanish. This is because the majority of Indonesia's population is Muslim.

Survey for Transition of Normal Reaction

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Akbari Rahimi
Keyword(s):  
Transition State ◽  
Reactive Intermediates ◽  
The State ◽  
Energy Profile ◽  
Normal Reaction ◽  
Unstable Molecules ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Bond Vibration ◽  
Unstable Molecule ◽  
Profile Diagram

Transition of reaction is a short-lived unstable molecule in a reaction which is formed in between the reaction when reactants change into products. Whereas, transition state is just the state before formation of new molecule (involves breaking of bonds of reactants and formation of new ones) Transition of reaction differs from a transition state in that the intermediate has a discrete lifetime (be it a few nanoseconds or many days), whereas a transition state lasts for just one bond vibration cycle. Intermediates may be unstable molecules (in which case they are called reactive intermediates) or highly stable molecules. The difference between them can be better described through the energy profile diagram.

Smart Estimation Ver-H.1.0

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sigit Haryadi
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Regression Equation ◽  
Weight Factor ◽  
The Past ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Value ◽  
The Difference

We cannot be sure exactly what will happen, we can only estimate by using a particular method, where each method must have the formula to create a regression equation and a formula to calculate the confidence level of the estimated value. This paper conveys a method of estimating the future values, in which the formula for creating a regression equation is based on the assumption that the future value will depend on the difference of the past values divided by a weight factor which corresponding to the time span to the present, and the formula for calculating the level of confidence is to use "the Haryadi Index". The advantage of this method is to remain accurate regardless of the sample size and may ignore the past value that is considered irrelevant.

Features of accumulation of amounts of measurement error

2017 ◽  
Vol 928 (10) ◽  
pp. 58-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
V.I. Salnikov
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Error ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Truncated Normal Distribution ◽  
Truncated Normal ◽  
The Law ◽  
Normal Law

The initial subject for study are consistent sums of the measurement errors. It is assumed that the latter are subject to the normal law, but with the limitation on the value of the marginal error Δpred = 2m. It is known that each amount ni corresponding to a confidence interval, which provides the value of the sum, is equal to zero. The paradox is that the probability of such an event is zero; therefore, it is impossible to determine the value ni of where the sum becomes zero. The article proposes to consider the event consisting in the fact that some amount of error will change value within 2m limits with a confidence level of 0,954. Within the group all the sums have a limit error. These tolerances are proposed to use for the discrepancies in geodesy instead of 2m*SQL(ni). The concept of “the law of the truncated normal distribution with Δpred = 2m” is suggested to be introduced.

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