scholarly journals Possible traces of solar activity effect on the surface air temperature of mid-latitudes

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (S264) ◽  
pp. 343-349
Author(s):  
Ali Kilcik ◽  
Atila Özgüç ◽  
Jean-Pierre Rozelot
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Cyclic Behavior ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Index Data ◽  
Activity Effect ◽  
European Part Of Russia ◽  
Flare Index

AbstractIn this study we investigate the effects of solar activity on the surface air temperature of mid-latitudes. This enables us to understand existence of solar activity effects on the temperature. We used surface air temperature and pressure data as climate parameters, and solar flare index data as solar activity indicator, for the 25 - 50 degree longitude and 30 - 70 degree latitude zone, including Turkey and European part of Russia. We considered the parameters temperature, pressure and flare index data for the period ranging from January 1975 to the end of December 2007, which covers almost three solar cycles, namely 21st, 22nd, and 23rd. We found some significant correlations between solar activity and surface air temperature for cycles 22 and 23 for some zones. We applied multitaper method to obtain the cyclic behavior of surface air temperature data sets. The most pronounced power peaks were found by this transform around 1.2 and 2.5 years which were reported earlier for some solar activity indicators. We concluded that signature of solar activity effect exists on surface air temperature of mid-latitudes where we studied.

scholarly journals Observations of Hysteresis Between Flare Index and Some Solar Indices

2001 ◽  
Vol 203 ◽  
pp. 125-128
Author(s):  
A. Özgüç ◽  
T. Ataç
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Sunspot Area ◽  
Saturation Effect ◽  
Hysteresis Phenomenon ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Index Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Flare Index

Using flare index data sets for solar cycles 21 and 22 we find that flare index and some solar activity indicators show a hysteresis phenomenon. It is observed that total sunspot area, mean magnetic field and coronal index follow different paths for the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycles while saturation effect exists at the extreme phases. However, we notice that the separations between the paths are not the same during the past two cycles of 21 and 22.

Possible traces of solar activity effect on the surface air temperature of Turkey

2008 ◽  
Vol 70 (13) ◽  
pp. 1669-1677 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kilcik ◽  
A. Özgüç ◽  
J.P. Rozelot ◽  
S. Yeşilyurt
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Activity Effect

scholarly journals On the Prediction of Solar Cycles

Solar Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 296 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Courtillot ◽  
F. Lopes ◽  
J. L. Le Mouël
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Transfer Function ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Solar Activity Cycle ◽  
Planetary Motion ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Jovian Planets

AbstractThis article deals with the prediction of the upcoming solar activity cycle, Solar Cycle 25. We propose that astronomical ephemeris, specifically taken from the catalogs of aphelia of the four Jovian planets, could be drivers of variations in solar activity, represented by the series of sunspot numbers (SSN) from 1749 to 2020. We use singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to associate components with similar periods in the ephemeris and SSN. We determine the transfer function between the two data sets. We improve the match in successive steps: first with Jupiter only, then with the four Jovian planets and finally including commensurable periods of pairs and pairs of pairs of the Jovian planets (following Mörth and Schlamminger in Planetary Motion, Sunspots and Climate, Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, 193, 1979). The transfer function can be applied to the ephemeris to predict future cycles. We test this with success using the “hindcast prediction” of Solar Cycles 21 to 24, using only data preceding these cycles, and by analyzing separately two 130 and 140 year-long halves of the original series. We conclude with a prediction of Solar Cycle 25 that can be compared to a dozen predictions by other authors: the maximum would occur in 2026.2 (± 1 yr) and reach an amplitude of 97.6 (± 7.8), similar to that of Solar Cycle 24, therefore sketching a new “Modern minimum”, following the Dalton and Gleissberg minima.

Aerosol Effects on Temperature Forecast in the COSMO-Ru Model

2021 ◽  
pp. 29-39
Author(s):  
A. A. Poliukhov ◽  
◽  
D. V. Blinov ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
European Part ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Temperature Forecast ◽  
European Part Of Russia ◽  
Simulated Surface ◽  
Aerosol Effects ◽  
Sky Conditions

Aerosol effects on the forecast of surface temperature, as well as temperature at the levels of 850 and 500 hPa over Europe and the European part of Russia are studied using various aerosol climatologies: Tanre, Tegen, and MACv2. The numerical experiments with the COSMO-Ru model are performed for the central months of the seasons (January, April, July, and October) in 2017. It is found that a change in the simulated surface air temperature over land can reach 1C when using Tegen and MACv2 data as compared to Tanre. At 850 and 500 hPa levels, the changes do not exceed 0.4C. At the same time, it is shown that a decrease in the root-mean-square error of 2-m air temperature forecast at individual stations reaches 0.5C when using Tegen and MACv2 data and 1C for clear-sky conditions in Moscow.

The Downturn in Solar Activity during Solar Cycles 5 and 6

1991 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 330-331 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. O. Murphy
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Radial Growth ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Reservoir Model ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Annual Index ◽  
Carbon Reservoir ◽  
Lagged Correlation

AbstractThe atmospheric 14C record, the corresponding WM values derived from a carbon reservoir model, auroral numbers and the Zurich relative annual sunspot numbers all demonstrate a substantial downturn in solar activity for the duration of solar cycles 5 and 6. This reduction is also imbedded in some dendrochronological proxy data sets, which describe an annual index radial growth rate for trees at high-altitude sites. A significant lagged correlation can exist between tree-ring indices and the 11–year solar cycle during periods of high solar activity, a feature which is not evident during quiescent periods.

Periodic Variation of the North-South Asymmetry of Solar Activity Phenomena

2000 ◽  
Vol 179 ◽  
pp. 173-176
Author(s):  
V. K. Verma
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Periodic Variation ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
The North ◽  
Sunspot Data ◽  
Flare Index ◽  
North And South ◽  
South Asymmetry

AbstractWe report here a study of various solar activity phenomena occurring in both north and south hemispheres of the Sun during solar cycles 8–23. In the study we have used sunspot data for the period 1832–1976, flare index data for the period 1936–1993, Hα flare data 1993–1998 and solar active prominences data for the period 1957–1998. Earlier Verma reported long-term cyclic period in N-S asymmetry and also that the N-S asymmetry of solar activity phenomena during solar cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 will be south dominated and the N-S asymmetry will shift to north hemisphere in solar cycle 25. The present study shows that the N-S asymmetry during solar cycles 22 and 23 are southern dominated as suggested by Verma.

Long-Term Variations in Solar Activity and Their Apparent Effect on the Earth's Climate

1998 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 727-739
Author(s):  
K. Lassen
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Sunspot Cycle ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Global Network ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sunspot Activity ◽  
Atlantic Sector

The varying length of the 11-year cycle has been found to be strongly correlated with longterm variations of the northern hemisphere land surface air temperature since the beginning of systematic temperature variations from a global network, i.e. during the past 130 years. Although direct temperature observations before this interval are scarce, it has been possible to extend the correlation back to the 16th century due to the existence of a series of proxy temperature data published by Groveman and Landsberg in 1979. Reliable sunspot data do not exist before 1750, but we have been able to derive epochs of minimum sunspot activity from auroral observations back to 1500 and combine them with the direct observations to a homogeneous series. Comparison of the extended solar activity record with the temperature series confirms the high correlation between solar activity and northern hemisphere land surface air temperature and shows that the relationship has existed through the whole 500-year interval for which reliable data exist. A corresponding influence of solar activity has been demonstrated in other climatic parameters. Thus, both the date of arrival of spring in the Yangtze River Valley as deduced from phenological data and the extent of the sea-ice in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Sea have been shown to be correlated with the length of the sunspot cycle during the last 450 years.

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