scholarly journals CBDX: a workhorse mortality model from the Cairns–Blake–Dowd family

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 445-460
Author(s):  
Kevin Dowd ◽  
Andrew J. G. Cairns ◽  
David Blake
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
General Procedure ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
The Other ◽  
Adult Age ◽  
Mortality Model ◽  
Period Effects ◽  
Iterative Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Age Range ◽  
Period Model

AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to identify a workhorse mortality model for the adult age range (i.e., excluding the accident hump and younger ages). It applies the “general procedure” (GP) of Hunt & Blake [(2014), North American Actuarial Journal, 18, 116–138] to identify an age-period model that fits the data well before adding in a cohort effect that captures the residual year-of-birth effects arising in the original age-period model. The resulting model is intended to be suitable for a variety of populations, but economises on the number of period effects in comparison with a full implementation of the GP. We estimate the model using two different iterative maximum likelihood (ML) approaches – one Partial ML and the other Full ML – that avoid the need to specify identifiability constraints.

scholarly journals A procedure for the introduction of leanness into a company

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davorin Cimermančič ◽  
Janez Kušar ◽  
Tomaž Berlec
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
General Procedure ◽  
Portfolio Analysis ◽  
The Other ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
Step Procedure ◽  
The One ◽  
A Company

AbstractChanging a traditional company into a lean one is a very complex and time-consuming process that needs to be addressed in an appropriate way, otherwise the project of introduction of leanness into a company may fail on the one hand and even have a negative impact on business operations of the company on the other. When introducing a change, a step-by-step procedure leading to a progress may be of great help. The paper outlines a general procedure of leanness, an important part of which is a lean agent. A portfolio analysis is also used as a measure of leanness or as an indicator of the desired direction. The applied working methods were mainly active workshops and interviews with employees. The procedure has been tested on an example of a Slovene company; first, the existing situation is outlined, then the leanness steps taken according to the procedure and the final result after the first transition of the procedure.

scholarly journals Age period cohort analysis of chewing ability in Korea from 2007 to 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nam-Hee Kim ◽  
Ichiro Kawachi
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
The Past ◽  
Health And Nutrition ◽  
Period Effects ◽  
Chewing Ability ◽  
Main Variable ◽  
Observation Period

AbstractThere have been marked improvements in oral health in Korea during the past 10 years, including chewing ability. We sought to disentangle age, period, and cohort effects in chewing ability between 2007 and 2018. We analyzed data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The main variable was chewing difficulty, which was assessed among participants aged 20 years and older. APC analysis revealed three trends in chewing difficulty: (1) there was an increase in chewing difficulty starting at around 60 years of age (age effect), (2) there was a steady decrease in chewing difficulty during the observation period (period effect), and (3) chewing ability improved with each successive generation born after 1951 (cohort effect). Regarding recent improvements in chewing ability, cohort effects were somewhat more important than period effects.

A two different chemoprophylaxis approaches after phacoemulsification surgery in one thousand patients in Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 154-159
Author(s):  
Suzan Amana Rattan ◽  
◽  
Mahir Kadhim Mutashar ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Treated Group ◽  
The Other ◽  
Eye Drops ◽  
Topical Medication ◽  
Group Methods ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Infection And Inflammation ◽  
Group 2 ◽  
Age Range

AIM: To evaluate the effectivity of the combination of intracameral moxifloxacin 0.1% with subconjunctival triamcinolone acetonide 4 mg as prophylaxis of infection and inflammation after phacoemulsification in comparison with topical medication treated group. METHODS: A total one thousand patients with age range from 38 to 70 years old who scheduled for phacoemulsification were divided into 2 groups of no statistically significant differences in age, preoperative intraocular pressure (IOP) and central macular thickness (CMT), P=0.6, 0.9 and 0.8 respectively. The surgeries were done by 2 surgeons each one planned to use one method of prophylaxis at Eye Speciality Private hospital, Baghdad, Iraq. For the 1st group of patients (500) a topical moxifloxacin hydrochloride 0.5% and dexamethasone 0.1% eye drops were prescribed four times a day for 1mo postoperatively. For the 2nd group intracameral (IC) diluted moxifloxacin at 0.1% with subconjunctival (SC) triamcinolone 4mg in 0.4 cc were administered at the conclusion of the surgery. Follow up visits were on the first postoperative day, 1wk, 1mo, and 3mo postoperatively. Anterior chamber (AC) reaction was examined during the 4 visits while IOP was measured during the last 3 and CMT was measured only in the last one. RESULTS: The current clinical trial study compared 2 samples with 2 different prophylaxis methods. No endophthalmitis case reported in both group. By a 2-Sample t-test, the IC-treated group (group 2) had statistically significant lower AC cells at the 1st day postoperative visit than the other group while there were no statistically significant differences at 1wk, 1 mo and 3mo visits between the 2 groups. There was no statistically significant difference at 3mo visits in IOP and CMT between the two groups. A breakthrough inflammation rate with the topical medication was (9.6%) while in the other group (IC treated ) was 4.0%. A significant IOP elevation ≥10 mm Hg at 1mo in 2.4% within the topical medication group which was higher than the rate in the other group (0.8%). CONCLUSION: In addition to the safety and effectivity of the combination of intracameral moxifloxacin and subconjunctival triamcinolone in preventing infection and inflammation after cataract surgery. The majority (480) of our included patients didn’t require any topical postoperative medication that is cost saving for the patient, helped patients who were unable to administer topical medication, and decreased chance of complication related to patient poor adherence to postoperative medication.

scholarly journals The comprehension of deictic terms in normal and language impaired children

1981 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Mentis
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Analysis ◽  
The Other ◽  
Developmental Sequence ◽  
Stages Of Development ◽  
Normal Children ◽  
Language Impaired ◽  
Semantic Complexity ◽  
Impaired Group ◽  
Age Range ◽  
Impaired Children

This study examined the comprehension of four pairs of deictic terms in a group of language impaired children and compared their interpretation of these terms with those of non-language impaired children of the same age range. Each group was comprised of ten subjects within the age range of 9,6 to 10,6 years. Two tasks were administered, one to assess the comprehension of the terms here, there, this, and that and the other to assess the comprehension of the terms, come, go, bring and take. The results showed that while the non-language impaired subjects comprehended the full deictic contrast between the pairs of terms tested, the language impaired group did not. A qualitative analysis of the data revealed that the language impaired subjects appeared to follow the same developmental sequence as normal children in their acquisition of these terms and responded by using the same strategies that younger non-language impaired children use at equivalent stages of development. Furthermore, the language impaired subjects appeared to comprehend the deictic terms in a predictable order based on their relative semantic complexity.

scholarly journals The Longitudinal Association between Self–Esteem and Depressive Symptoms in Adolescents: Separating Between–Person Effects from Within–Person Effects

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 653-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Masselink ◽  
E. Van Roekel ◽  
B.L. Hankin ◽  
L. Keijsers ◽  
G.M.A. Lodder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Depressive Symptoms ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
The Other ◽  
Personality Psychology ◽  
Random Intercept ◽  
Vulnerability Model ◽  
Longitudinal Association ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Meta Analyses ◽  
Age Range

Many longitudinal studies have investigated whether self–esteem predicts depressive symptoms (vulnerability model) or the other way around (scar model) in adolescents. The most common method of analysis has been the cross–lagged panel model (CLPM). The CLPM does not separate between–person effects from within–person effects, making it unclear whether the results from previous studies actually reflect the within–person effects or whether they reflect differences between people. We investigated the associations between self–esteem and depressive symptoms at the within–person level, using random intercept cross–lagged panel models (RI–CLPMs). To get an impression of the magnitude of possible differences between the RI–CLPM and the CLPM, we compared the results of both models. We used data from three longitudinal adolescent samples (age range: 7–18 years; study 1: N = 1948; study 2: N = 1455; study 3: N = 316). Intervals between the measurements were 1–1.5 years. Single–paper meta–analyses showed support for small within–person associations from self–esteem to depressive symptoms, but not the other way around, thus only providing some support for the vulnerability model. The cross–lagged associations in the aggregated RI–CLPM and CLPM showed similar effect sizes. Overall, our results show that over 1– to 1.5–year time intervals, low self–esteem may negatively influence depressive symptoms over time within adolescents, but only weakly so. © 2018 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology

scholarly journals How to Profit From Declines of Share Prices without Shorting Them

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Leszek Zaremba
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Matrix Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
View Point ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Short Sale ◽  
Black Scholes ◽  
Period Model

We present a 1-period model of the Polish financial market from the view point of the largest Polish company KGH, whose share prices declined from 119 PLN on June 1, 2015 to 68 PLN on December 2, 2015. Our goal is to show how KGHM might create portfolios (with practically zero cost), which would (almost) fully compensate these declines without, what is very important, short sale of KGHM’s shares. The presented methodology is equally suitable in any country for all those companies for which options on their shares are also tradable. We employ here a matrix model of a fraction of the Polish financial market and make use of the Black–Scholes formula to valuate 3 portfolios replicating 3 desired by KGHM, but not available on the market, financial instruments. To give more insight to the readers, we distinguish two cases. In one of them, volatility of KGHM’s share prices is 33%, and in the other case it equals 20%.

scholarly journals Request Strategies in the American TV Series Full House

Lexicon ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yemima Febriani ◽  
Sharifah Hanidar
Keyword(s):  
Social Distance ◽  
Family Members ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Other ◽  
Relative Power ◽  
Adult Age ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
The Social ◽  
Request Strategies

This research aims to analyze the request strategies used in an American TV Series entitled Full House season 7 episodes 1-12. The main characters are family members from three different age groups (adult, teenager, and children). This research attempts to see if there is any difference on the choice of request strategies used by the three age groups. Blum-Kulka and Olshtain’s (1984) theory on request directness level is used to classify the requests. Relative power and social distance are also studied to see how they influence the characters in making their requests. The results show that mood derivable is the most frequent strategy used by all age groups. Specifically, direct request is highly used by the adult age groups. On the other hand, indirect request is mostly used by the younger age groups. The results also show that all age groups tend to use direct strategy when the social distance is negative. However, when the social distance is positive, the choice of strategy depends on the authority of the speaker.

scholarly journals GAMBARAN KEJADIAN KANKER PROSTAT PADA PENDERITA DIABETES MELLITUS DI RSUP H. ADAM MALIK MEDAN

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-56
Author(s):  
Surya Martua Horas Harahap
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Prostate Cancer Patient ◽  
Transitional Cell ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
The Other ◽  
Genetic Mutations ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Prostatic Gland ◽  
Age Range

According to Kemenkes RI, in 2013, the number of prostate cancer patient is 0.2% or approximately 25,012 patients. Prostate cancer is a malignancy in the prostatic gland and more than 95% of prostate cancer is adenocarcinoma, the other 5% is transitional cell and neuroendocrine carcinoma or sarcoma. Up to now, the etiology of prostate cancer is still unknown, but it involves multifactor and genetic mutations. This study is a descriptive study design with a retrospective cross sectional in the Urology Division of the Department of Surgery, General Hospital of H. Adam Malik Medan during period January to December 2014. From this study we found about 261 patients of Diabetes Mellitus who visited surgery, but only as many as 41 people (15.7%) performed prostate biopsy, and of the 41 people who had the most prostate cancer were 24 people (58.5%). The highest age range was 70-74 years (37.5%), with PSA values more than 50 ng / ml as much (33.3%), and the highest Gleason score in the range of 5-6 (50%)

scholarly journals PROFILE OF PLASTIC SURGERY TRAUMA PATIENTS AT H. ADAM MALIK GENERAL HOSPITAL MEDAN

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Darwin Firmansyah Siregar ◽  
Frank Bietra Buchari ◽  
Utama Abdi Tarigan ◽  
Aznan Lelo
Keyword(s):  
Soft Tissue ◽  
Plastic Surgery ◽  
Bone Fractures ◽  
Soft Tissue Injuries ◽  
Facial Trauma ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Adult Age ◽  
Common Etiology ◽  
Tissue Injuries ◽  
Age Range

Introduction: According to data from Perhimpunan Dokter Bedah Plastik Rekonstruksi dan Estetik Indonesia (PERAPI), there are only 193 plastic surgeons throughout Indonesia. There is no sufcient data that described pattern of incidence, workload, and role of Plastic Surgery in trauma cases at Indonesian Referral Center Hospital, especially in the Province of North Sumatra. Methods: This research is a descriptive study with a retrospective approach. Sample of this study was medical records of trauma patients who required Plastic Surgery who came to the H. Adam Malik General Hospital Medan Emergency Room (1 January 2016-31 December 2018). This study used total sampling method. Results: This study involved 536 patients and 40.85% included in the adult age range. Men vs women ratio is 3:1 (405 vs 131). Based on type of injury, the most common injury is facial trauma, followed by burns and soft tissue injuries (291, 178 and 66). The most common etiology is trafc accidents (90 cases). Most of facial bone fractures located at mandibular bone (segmental fracture). Inhalation trauma due to burns only occurred in 6 cases (3.24%). Most of soft tissue injuries occurred at lower extremities (upper limbs). Conclusion: Trafc accidents are the most common etiology for trauma in Plastic Surgery. Most of the patients are men and included in the adult age range. Facial trauma is the most common injury in Plastic Surgery. Most facial bone fractures located at mandible (symphysis and parasymphysis). Most of burns injury are re burns. Most soft tissue injuries are located at lower extremities (upper limbs).

scholarly journals A Bi-Level Weibull Model with Applications to Two Ordered Events

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuguang Song ◽  
Hanlin Liu ◽  
Mimi Zhang ◽  
Min Xie
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Mixture Distribution ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Weibull Model ◽  
Reliability Function ◽  
The Other ◽  
Regularity Conditions ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method

In this paper, we propose and study a new bivariate Weibull model, called Bi-levelWeibullModel, which arises when one failure occurs after the other. Under some specific regularity conditions, the reliability function of the second event can be above the reliability function of the first event, and is always above the reliability function of the transformed first event, which is a univariate Weibull random variable. This model is motivated by a common physical feature that arises fromseveral real applications. The two marginal distributions are a Weibull distribution and a generalized three-parameter Weibull mixture distribution. Some useful properties of the model are derived, and we also present the maximum likelihood estimation method. A real example is provided to illustrate the application of the model.

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