scholarly journals Fingerprint of climate change in precipitation aggressiveness across the central Mediterranean (Italian) area

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nazzareno Diodato ◽  
Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist ◽  
Gianni Bellocchi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Losses ◽  
Rainfall Erosivity ◽  
Central Mediterranean ◽  
The Past ◽  
Recent Warming ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Main Driver ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Long Term Trend

AbstractRainfall erosivity and its derivative, erosivity density (ED, i.e., the erosivity per unit of rain), is a main driver of considerable environmental damages and economic losses worldwide. This study is the first to investigate the interannual variability, and return periods, of both rainfall erosivity and ED over the Mediterranean for the period 1680–2019. By capturing the relationship between seasonal rainfall, its variability, and recorded hydrological extremes in documentary data consistent with a sample (1981–2015) of detailed Revised Universal Soil Loss Erosion-based data, we show a noticeable decreasing trend of rainfall erosivity since about 1838. However, the 30-year return period of ED values indicates a positive long-term trend, in tandem with the resurgence of very wet days (> 95th percentile) and the erosive activity of rains during the past two decades. A possible fingerprint of recent warming is the occurrence of prolonged wet spells in apparently more erratic and unexpected ways.

scholarly journals The trend of the oxidants in boreal forest over 2007–2018: comprehensive modelling study with long-term measurements at SMEAR II, Finland

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dean Chen ◽  
Putian Zhou ◽  
Tuomo Nieminen ◽  
Pontus Roldin ◽  
Ximeng Qi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Size Range ◽  
Chemical Components ◽  
Detailed Model ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
The Past ◽  
Main Driver ◽  
The One ◽  
Long Term Trend

Abstract. Major atmospheric oxidants (OH, O3 and NO3) dominate the atmospheric oxidation capacity, while H2SO4 is considered as a main driver for new particle formation events. Although numerous studies have investigated the long-term trend of ozone in Europe, the trend of OH, NO3 and H2SO4 at specific sites are to a large extent unknown. In this study, we investigated how the trends in major atmospheric oxidants (OH, O3 and NO3) and H2SO4 changed in southern Finland during the past 12 years and discuss how these trends relate to decreasing emissions of regulated air pollutants in Europe. The one-dimensional model SOSAA has been applied in several studies at the SMEAR II station, and has been validated by measurements in several projects. Here, we ran the SOSAA model for the years 2007–2018 to simulate the atmospheric chemical components, especially the atmospheric oxidants and H2SO4 at SMEAR II. The simulations were evaluated with observations at SMEAR II for several shorter and longer campaigns. Our results show that OH increased by +1.56 (−0.8; +3.17) % yr−1 during daytime and NO3 decreased by −3.92 (−6.49; −1.79) % yr−1 during nighttime, indicating different trends of the oxidants during day and night. Sulphuric acid decreased during daytime by −5.12 (−11.39; −0.52) % yr−1, which correlated with the observed decreasing concentration of newly formed particles in the size range 3–25 nm by 1.4 % yr−1 at SMEAR II during the years 1997–2012 (Nieminen et al., 2014). Additionally we compared our simulated OH, NO3 and H2SO4 concentrations with proxies, which are commonly applied in case limited amount of parameters are measured and no detailed model simulations are available.

An abattoir-based study on the prevalence and economic losses due to cystic echinococcosis in slaughtered herbivores in Ahwaz, south-western Iran

2010 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
N.A. Ahmadi ◽  
M. Meshkehkar
Keyword(s):  
Hydatid Disease ◽  
Cystic Echinococcosis ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Western Iran ◽  
Khuzestan Province ◽  
Hepatic Hydatid Disease ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Slaughtered Herbivores

AbstractA 10-year (1998–2008) retrospective study was carried out to investigate the prevalence and long-term trend of hydatid disease in slaughtered herbivores in the large complex abattoir of Ahwaz (the capital of Khuzestan province, south-western Iran). A total of 3,583,417 animals including 2,815,982 sheep, 427,790 goats and 339,645 cattle were inspected macroscopically for hydatid cysts in the 10-year period, and overall 155,555 (4.24%) livers and 228,172 (6.37%) lungs were condemned. Cystic echinococcosis (CE) was responsible for 36.08% and 48.04% of total liver and lung condemnations, respectively. The prevalence of pulmonary hydatid disease in sheep, goats and cattle was 2.22, 5.43 and 6.99%, respectively; on the other hand, the prevalence of hepatic hydatid disease for those animals was 1.26, 2.57 and 2.80%, respectively. Data showed an overall downward long-term trend for CE in all livestock slaughtered during the study period (P < 0.01). Lung condemnation due to CE was significantly more common than liver condemnation for each animal separately (P < 0.001). The prevalence of liver and lung hydatidosis in sheep was significantly lower than that in other livestock (P < 0.001). The prevalence of hydatid disease recovered from the sheep, cattle and goats varied in different seasons, but there was no statistical difference between various seasons. The odds ratio of lung and liver condemnations due to hydatidosis showed a slightly different pattern in some years; however, the overall declining trend was still observed. The total annual economic loss incurred due to hydatidosis in all ruminants slaughtered at Ahwaz municipal abattoir was estimated to be US$459,659.6, based on the market prices in the year 2008. This number corresponds to a loss of US$300,620.4 for cattle, US$123,490.0 for sheep and US$35,549.2 for goats. The current results provide baseline data for the future monitoring of this potentially important disease in the region, and also suggest that a thorough investigation leading to a disease control strategy is required to reduce the economic and public health consequences of CE.

scholarly journals V. Bryusov’s Letters to His Fiancée

Literary Fact ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 8-30
Author(s):  
Monika V. Orlova
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Full Text ◽  
Terminally Ill ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
State Of Mind ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Village ◽  
The Relationship

The publication includes V.Ya. Bryusov’s letters to his fiancée I.M. Runt (1876 –1965) from June 9 to September 9, 1897. 11 correspondences, including the final telegram sent from Kursk, were written and sent from Aachen (Germany), Moscow and several Ukrainian localities. The letter 10 is accompanied by the full text of I.M. Runt’s only surviving letter to Bryusov, sent from Moscow to the village of Bolshye Sorochintsy and received by the poet a few months later at home. The relationship between the young people before the wedding were complicated. While the poet was preparing for the wedding in Moscow, he summed up the past contacts with “mes amantes”, and his state of mind was painful. Shortly before meeting his future wife, Bryusov broke up with the former governess of his family E.I. Pavlovskaya, who was terminally ill. A few days before the wedding he decided to go to say goodbye to Pavlovskaya to her homeland, Ukraine. In his letters to the future wife the poet tried to smooth out the tension of the situation, perhaps anticipating that he would be bounded with I.M. Runt 30 Литературный факт. 2021. № 2 (20) by a long-term relationship, where life and literature are closely interconnected. The letters are published for the first time.

scholarly journals Air quality trends in Europe over the past decade: a first multi-model assessment

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 19029-19087 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Colette ◽  
C. Granier ◽  
Ø. Hodnebrog ◽  
H. Jakobs ◽  
A. Maurizi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
The Past ◽  
Current State ◽  
Primary Compounds ◽  
Long Term Trend

Abstract. We discuss the capability of current state-of-the-art chemistry and transport models to reproduce air quality trends and inter annual variability. Documenting these strengths and weaknesses on the basis of historical simulations is essential before the models are used to investigate future air quality projections. To achieve this, a coordinated modelling exercise was performed in the framework of the CityZEN European Project. It involved six regional and global chemistry-transport models (Bolchem, Chimere, Emep, Eurad, OsloCTM2 and Mozart) simulating air quality over the past decade in the Western European anthropogenic emissions hotspots. Comparisons between models and observations allow assessing the skills of the models to capture the trends in basic atmospheric constituents (NO2, O3, and PM10). We find that the trends of primary constituents are well reproduced (except in some countries – owing to their sensitivity to the emission inventory) although capturing the more moderate trends of secondary species such as O3 is more challenging. Apart from the long term trend, the modelled monthly variability is consistent with the observations but the year-to-year variability is generally underestimated. A comparison of simulations where anthropogenic emissions are kept constant is also investigated. We find that the magnitude of the emission-driven trend exceeds the natural variability for primary compounds. We can thus conclude that emission management strategies have had a significant impact over the past 10 yr, hence supporting further emission reductions strategies.

DIPHTHERIA IN THE UNITED STATES, 1959-1960

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1962 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 194-205
Author(s):  
Theodore C. Doege ◽  
Clark W. Heath ◽  
Ida L. Sherman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
The Past ◽  
Primary Series ◽  
Long Term Trend

Diphtheria attack rates and cases, and to a much lesser extent case-fatality rates, have fallen steadily within the United States during the past 25 years. However, during 1959 and 1960 there was a halt in this long-term trend. Epidemiologic data on 868 clinical cases of diphtheria occurring in 1959 and 873 cases in 1960 were submitted to the Communicable Disease Center by 45 states. The cases and several major outbreaks tended to concentrate in the southern and southwestern states. Attack rates and deaths were highest for children under 10 years, and attack rates were more than five times greater for nonwhite children. Analysis of 1960 immunization data shows that 72% of the patients had received no immunizations. Fifty-five per cent of carriers, but only 18% of persons with bacteriologically confirmed cases, had received a primary series. Only 1 person of 58 fatal cases occurring in 1960 had received a primary series. Certain problems for future investigation, disclosed by the surveillance data, are discussed.

scholarly journals Phillips Curve: The Greek Case

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Liargovas ◽  
Marios Psychalis
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Economic Adjustment ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Past ◽  
Greek Economy ◽  
Classical Economic ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Relationship

One of the most important problems facing Greece is the long-term and high-level unemployment rate. The Economic Adjustment Programmes (EAPs) focused on the supply side of the economy, aiming at the adjustment of prices and wages, draw on the classical economic model, as it is widely accepted that internal devaluation policies keep inflation low. This article attempts to examine whether the Keynesian theory and the Phillips Curve, which shows the relationship between unemployment and inflation, apply in the case of the Greek economy. We use descriptive statistics, ordinary least squares (OLS) and VAR Analysis to examine the relationship between the variables. According to the results, there is a negative correlation between unemployment and inflation in Greece, thus confirming the Phillips Curve hypothesis. Finally, results show that unemployment is less dependent on inflation compared with the past, and there are numerous other decisive factors affecting unemployment.

scholarly journals Mnemonic Populism: The Polish Holocaust Law and its Afterlife

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kornelia Kończal
Keyword(s):  
Significant Other ◽  
The Past ◽  
Cultural Foundations ◽  
The Holocaust ◽  
Heated Debate ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Relationship

In early 2018, the Polish parliament adopted controversial legislation criminalising assertions regarding the complicity of the ‘Polish Nation’ and the ‘Polish State’ in the Holocaust. The so-called Polish Holocaust Law provoked not only a heated debate in Poland, but also serious international tensions. As a result, it was amended only five months after its adoption. The reason why it is worth taking a closer look at the socio-cultural foundations and political functions of the short-lived legislation is twofold. Empirically, the short history of the Law reveals a great deal about the long-term role of Jews in the Polish collective memory as an unmatched Significant Other. Conceptually, the short life of the Law, along with its afterlife, helps capture poll-driven, manifestly moralistic and anti-pluralist imaginings of the past, which I refer to as ‘mnemonic populism’. By exploring the relationship between popular and political images of the past in contemporary Poland, this article argues for joining memory and populism studies in order to better understand what can happen to history in illiberal surroundings.

Middle and Late Holocene Sea-Level Changes in Eastern Maine Reconstructed from Foraminiferal Saltmarsh Stratigraphy and AMS 14C Dates on Basal Peat

1999 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 350-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.Roland Gehrels
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tidal Range ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Amplitude Fluctuations ◽  
Vertical Distributions ◽  
Low Amplitude ◽  
Long Term Trend

A relative sea-level history is reconstructed for Machiasport, Maine, spanning the past 6000 calendar year and combining two different methods. The first method establishes the long-term (103 yr) trend of sea-level rise by dating the base of the Holocene saltmarsh peat overlying a Pleistocene substrate. The second method uses detailed analyses of the foraminiferal stratigraphy of two saltmarsh peat cores to quantify fluctuations superimposed on the long-term trend. The indicative meaning of the peat (the height at which the peat was deposited relative to mean tide level) is calculated by a transfer function based on vertical distributions of modern foraminiferal assemblages. The chronology is determined from AMS 14C dates on saltmarsh plant fragments embedded in the peat. The combination of the two different approaches produces a high-resolution, replicable sea-level record, which takes into account the autocompaction of the peat sequence. Long-term mean rates of sea-level rise, corrected for changes in tidal range, are 0.75 mm/yr between 6000 and 1500 cal yr B.P. and 0.43 mm/yr during the past 1500 year. The foraminiferal stratigraphy reveals several low-amplitude fluctuations during a relatively stable period between 1100 and 400 cal yr B.P., and a sea-level rise of 0.5 m during the past 300 year.

scholarly journals Pacific Sea Levels Rising Very Slowly and Not Accelerating

2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Parker ◽  
Clifford Ollier
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Relative Rate ◽  
Tide Gauges ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Long Term Trend

AbstractOver the past decades, detailed surveys of the Pacific Ocean atoll islands show no sign of drowning because of accelerated sea-level rise. Data reveal that no atoll lost land area, 88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, and only 11.4% of islands contracted. The Pacific Atolls are not being inundated because the sea level is rising much less than was thought. The average relative rate of rise and acceleration of the 29 long-term-trend (LTT) tide gauges of Japan, Oceania and West Coast of North America, are both negative, −0.02139 mm yr−1and −0.00007 mm yr−2respectively. Since the start of the 1900s, the sea levels of the Pacific Ocean have been remarkably stable.

scholarly journals Alien Invasive Pathogens and Pests Harming Trees, Forests, and Plantations: Pathways, Global Consequences and Management

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1364
Author(s):  
Tiziana Panzavolta ◽  
Matteo Bracalini ◽  
Alessandra Benigno ◽  
Salvatore Moricca
Keyword(s):  
Forest Health ◽  
Diagnostic Techniques ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Diagnostic Tools ◽  
Ecological Problem ◽  
Pest Species ◽  
The Past ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Natural Landscapes ◽  
Main Driver

Forest health worldwide is impacted by many invasive alien pathogens and pests (IAPPs) that cause significant harm, with severe economic losses and environmental alterations. Destructive tree pathogens and pests have in the past devastated our forests, natural landscapes and cityscapes and still continue to represent a serious threat. The main driver of pathogen and pest invasions is human activities, above all global trade, which allows these invasive species to overstep their natural distribution ranges. While natural transport occurs according to a regular, expected colonization pattern (based on the dispersive capacity of the organism), human-mediated transport takes place on a larger, unpredictable scale. In order for a pathogen or pest species to become invasive in a new territory it must overcome distinct stages (barriers) that strongly affect the outcome of the invasion. Early detection is crucial to enabling successful eradication and containment. Although sophisticated diagnostic techniques are now available for disease and pest surveillance and monitoring, few control and mitigation options are usable in forestry; of these, biological control is one of the most frequently adopted. Since invasion by pathogens and pests is an economic and ecological problem of supranational relevance, governments should endorse all necessary preventive and corrective actions. To this end, establishing and harmonizing measures among countries is essential, both for preventing new introductions and for diminishing the eventual range expansion of IAPPs present at a local scale. Research is fundamental for: (i) developing effective and rapid diagnostic tools; (ii) investigating the epidemiology and ecology of IAPPs in newly introduced areas; and (iii) supporting policymakers in the implementation of quarantine regulations.

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