scholarly journals Linking climate and infectious disease trends in the Northern/Arctic Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Ma ◽  
Georgia Destouni ◽  
Zahra Kalantari ◽  
Anna Omazic ◽  
Birgitta Evengård ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Q Fever ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Tick Borne Encephalitis ◽  
Puumala Virus Infection ◽  
Increasing Temperature

AbstractRecognition of climate-sensitive infectious diseases is crucial for mitigating health threats from climate change. Recent studies have reasoned about potential climate sensitivity of diseases in the Northern/Arctic Region, where climate change is particularly pronounced. By linking disease and climate data for this region, we here comprehensively quantify empirical climate-disease relationships. Results show significant relationships of borreliosis, leptospirosis, tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), Puumala virus infection, cryptosporidiosis, and Q fever with climate variables related to temperature and freshwater conditions. These data-driven results are consistent with previous reasoning-based propositions of climate-sensitive infections as increasing threats for humans, with notable exceptions for TBE and leptospirosis. For the latter, the data imply decrease with increasing temperature and precipitation experienced in, and projected for, the Northern/Arctic Region. This study provides significant data-based underpinning for simplified empirical assessments of the risks of several infectious diseases under future climate change.

Projecting future vegetation change for northeast China using CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Yuan ◽  
Shuang-ye Wu ◽  
Shugui Hou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Changes ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>This study aims to establish future vegetation changes in the east and central of northern China (ECNC), an ecologically sensitive region in the transition zonal from humid monsoonal to arid continental climate. The region has experienced significant greening in the past several decades. However, few studies exist on how vegetation will change with future climate change, and great uncertainties exist due to complex, and often spatially non-stationary, relationships between vegetation and climate. In this study, we first used historical NDVI and climate data to model this spatially variable relationship with Geographically Weighted Logit Regression. We found that temperature and precipitation could explain, on average, 43% of NDVI variance, and they could be used to model NDVI fairly well. We then establish future climate change using the output of 11 CMIP6 models for the medium (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios for the mid-century (2041-2070) and late-century (2071-2100). The results show that for this region, both temperature and precipitation will increase under both scenarios. By late-century under SSP585, precipitation is projected to increase by 25.12% and temperature is projected to increase 5.87<sup>o</sup>C in ECNC. Finally, we used future climate conditions as input for the regression models to project future vegetation (indicated by NDVI). We found that NDVI will increase under climate change. By mid-century, the average NDVI in ECNC will increase by 0.024 and 0.021 under SSP245 and SSP585. By late-century, it will increase by 0.016 and 0.006 under SSP245 and SSP585 respectively. Although NDVI is projected to increase, the magnitude of increase is likely to diminish with higher emission scenarios, possibly due to the benefit of precipitation increase being gradually encroached by the detrimental effects of temperature increase. Moreover, despite the overall NDVI increase, the area likely to suffer vegetation degradation will also expands, particularly in the western part of ECNC. With higher emissions and later into the century, region with low NDVI is likely to shift and/or expand north-forward. Our results could provide important information on possible vegetation changes, which could help to develop effective management strategies to ensure ecological and economic sustainability in the future.</p>

Equilibrium Spin-up of Cold and Warm Permafrost Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cameron Ross ◽  
Ryley Beddoe ◽  
Greg Siemens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Multiple Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
C Cycle ◽  
Warm Permafrost

<p>Initialization (spin-up) of a numerical ground temperature model is a critical but often neglected step for solving heat transfer problems in permafrost. Improper initialization can lead to significant underlying model drift in subsequent transient simulations, distorting the effects on ground temperature from future climate change or applied infrastructure.  In a typical spin-up simulation, a year or more of climate data are applied at the surface and cycled repeatedly until ground temperatures are declared to be at equilibrium with the imposed boundary conditions, and independent of the starting conditions.</p><p>Spin-up equilibrium is often simply declared after a specified number of spin-up cycles. In few studies, equilibrium is visually confirmed by plotting ground temperatures vs spin-up cycles until temperatures stabilize; or is declared when a certain inter-cycle-temperature-change threshold is met simultaneously at all depths, such as ∆T ≤ 0.01<sup>o</sup>C per cycle. In this study, we investigate the effectiveness of these methods for determining an equilibrium state in a variety of permafrost models, including shallow and deep (10 – 200 m), high and low saturation soils (S = 100 and S = 20), and cold and warm permafrost (MAGT = ~-10 <sup>o</sup>C and >-1 <sup>o</sup>C). The efficacy of equilibrium criteria 0.01<sup>o</sup>C/cycle and 0.0001<sup>o</sup>C/cycle are compared. Both methods are shown to prematurely indicate equilibrium in multiple model scenarios.  Results show that no single criterion can programmatically detect equilibrium in all tested models, and in some scenarios can result in up to 10<sup>o</sup>C temperature error or 80% less permafrost than at true equilibrium.  A combination of equilibrium criteria and visual confirmation plots is recommended for evaluating and declaring equilibrium in a spin-up simulation.</p><p>Long-duration spin-up is particularly important for deep (10+ m) ground models where thermal inertia of underlying permafrost slows the ground temperature response to surface forcing, often requiring hundreds or even thousands of spin-up cycles to establish equilibrium. Subsequent transient analyses also show that use of a properly initialized 100 m permafrost model can reduce the effect of climate change on mean annual ground temperature of cold permafrost by more than 1 <sup>o</sup>C and 3 <sup>o</sup>C under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate projections, respectively, when compared to an identical 25 m model. These results have important implications for scientists, engineers and policy makers that rely on model projections of long-term permafrost conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Climate Change Influences Basidiome Emergence of Leaf-Cutting Ant Cultivars

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 912
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Bizarria ◽  
Pepijn W. Kooij ◽  
Andre Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nest Architecture ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
Symbiotic Mutualism ◽  
Leaf Cutting

Maintaining symbiosis homeostasis is essential for mutualistic partners. Leaf-cutting ants evolved a long-term symbiotic mutualism with fungal cultivars for nourishment while using vertical asexual transmission across generations. Despite the ants’ efforts to suppress fungal sexual reproduction, scattered occurrences of cultivar basidiomes have been reported. Here, we review the literature for basidiome occurrences and associated climate data. We hypothesized that more basidiome events could be expected in scenarios with an increase in temperature and precipitation. Our field observations and climate data analyses indeed suggest that Acromyrmex coronatus colonies are prone to basidiome occurrences in warmer and wetter seasons. Even though our study partly depended on historical records, occurrences have increased, correlating with climate change. A nest architecture with low (or even the lack of) insulation might be the cause of this phenomenon. The nature of basidiome occurrences in the A. coronatus–fungus mutualism can be useful to elucidate how resilient mutualistic symbioses are in light of climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over mainland Southeast Asia by CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Supharatid ◽  
J. Nafung ◽  
T. Aribarg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Five mainland SEA countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand) are threatened by climate change. Here, the latest 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is employed to examine future climate change in this region under two SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The bias-corrected multi-model ensemble (MME) projects a warming (wetting) over Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand by 1.88–3.89, 2.04–4.22, 1.88–4.09, 2.03–4.25, and 1.90–3.96 °C (8.76–20.47, 12.69–21.10, 9.54–21.10, 13.47–22.12, and 7.03–15.17%) in the 21st century with larger values found under SSP5-8.5 than SSP2-4.5. The MME model displays approximately triple the current rainfall during the boreal summer. Overall, there are robust increases in rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon (3.41–3.44, 8.44–9.53, and 10.89–17.59%) and the Northeast Monsoon (−2.58 to 0.78, −0.43 to 2.81, and 2.32 to 5.45%). The effectiveness of anticipated climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under SSP2-4.5 results in slowing down the warming trends and decreasing precipitation trends after 2050. All these findings imply that member countries of mainland SEA need to prepare for appropriate adaptation measures in response to the changing climate.

scholarly journals Fir (Abies spp.) stand biomass additive model for Eurasia sensitive to winter temperature and annual precipitation

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 166-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir A. Usoltsev ◽  
Katarína Merganičová ◽  
Bohdan Konôpka ◽  
Anna A. Osmirko ◽  
Ivan S. Tsepordey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biomass Allocation ◽  
Aboveground Biomass ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Tree Biomass ◽  
Common Pattern ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Shoot Ratio ◽  
Biomass Components ◽  
Increasing Temperature

Abstract Climate change, especially modified courses of temperature and precipitation, has a significant impact on forest functioning and productivity. Moreover, some alterations in tree biomass allocation (e.g. root to shoot ratio, foliage to wood parts) might be expected in these changing ecological conditions. Therefore, we attempted to model fir stand biomass (t ha−1) along the trans-Eurasian hydrothermal gradients using the data from 272 forest stands. The model outputs suggested that all biomass components, except for the crown mass, change in a common pattern, but in different ratios. Specifically, in the range of mean January temperature and precipitation of −30°C to +10°C and 300 to 900 mm, fir stand biomass increases with both increasing temperature and precipitation. Under an assumed increase of January temperature by 1°C, biomass of roots and of all components of the aboveground biomass of fir stands increased (under the assumption that the precipitation level did not change). Similarly, an assumed increase in precipitation by 100 mm resulted in the increased biomass of roots and of all aboveground components. We conclude that fir seems to be a perspective taxon from the point of its productive properties in the ongoing process of climate change.

scholarly journals An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 2959-2970
Author(s):  
Maialen Iturbide ◽  
José M. Gutiérrez ◽  
Lincoln M. Alves ◽  
Joaquín Bedia ◽  
Ruth Cerezo-Mota ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Scatter Plots ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. Several sets of reference regions have been used in the literature for the regional synthesis of observed and modelled climate and climate change information. A popular example is the series of reference regions used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (SREX). The SREX regions were slightly modified for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and used for reporting subcontinental observed and projected changes over a reduced number (33) of climatologically consistent regions encompassing a representative number of grid boxes. These regions are intended to allow analysis of atmospheric data over broad land or ocean regions and have been used as the basis for several popular spatially aggregated datasets, such as the Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitation in IPCC Regions for CMIP5 dataset. We present an updated version of the reference regions for the analysis of new observed and simulated datasets (including CMIP6) which offer an opportunity for refinement due to the higher atmospheric model resolution. As a result, the number of land and ocean regions is increased to 46 and 15, respectively, better representing consistent regional climate features. The paper describes the rationale for the definition of the new regions and analyses their homogeneity. The regions are defined as polygons and are provided as coordinates and a shapefile together with companion R and Python notebooks to illustrate their use in practical problems (e.g. calculating regional averages). We also describe the generation of a new dataset with monthly temperature and precipitation, spatially aggregated in the new regions, currently for CMIP5 and CMIP6, to be extended to other datasets in the future (including observations). The use of these reference regions, dataset and code is illustrated through a worked example using scatter plots to offer guidance on the likely range of future climate change at the scale of the reference regions. The regions, datasets and code (R and Python notebooks) are freely available at the ATLAS GitHub repository: https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS (last access: 24 August 2020), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463 (Iturbide et al., 2020).

Signals of Climate Change and Spatio-temporal Analysis of Climate Extremes in the Homogeneous Climatic Zones of Pakistan During 1962-2019

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Firdos Khan ◽  
Shaukat Ali ◽  
Christoph Mayer ◽  
Hamd Ullah ◽  
Sher Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
North Pakistan ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Increasing Temperature

Abstract This study investigates contemporary climate change and spatio-temporal analysis of climate extremes in Pakistan (divided into five homogenous climate zones) using observed data, categorized between 1962–1990 and 1991–2019. The results show that on the average, the changes in temperature and precipitation are significant at 5 % significance level throughout Pakistan in most of the seasons. The spatio-temporal trend analysis of consecutive dry days (CDD) shows an increasing trend during 1991–2019 except in zone 4 indicating throughout decreasing trend. PRCPTOT (annual total wet-day precipitation), R10 (number of heavy precipitation days), R20 (number of very heavy precipitation days) and R25mm (extremely heavy precipitation days) are significantly decreasing (increasing) during 1962–1990 (1991–2019) in North Pakistan. Summer days (SU25) increased across the country, except in zone 4 with a decrease. TX10p (Cool days) decreased across the country except an increase in zone 1 and zone 2 during 1962–1990. TX90p (Warm days) has an increasing trend during 1991–2019 except zone 5 and decreasing trend during 1962–1990 except zone 2 and 5. The Mann-Kendal test indicates increasing precipitation (DJF) and decreasing maximum and minimum temperature (JJA) in the Karakoram region during 1962–1990. The decadal analysis suggests decreasing precipitation during 1991–2019 and increasing temperature (maximum and minimum) during 2010–2019 which is in line with the recently confirmed slight mass loss of glaciers against Karakoram Anomaly.

Indices for daily temperature and precipitation based on quality controlled and homogenized data in Madagascar

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luc Yannick Andréas Randriamarolaza ◽  
Enric Aguilar ◽  
Oleg Skrynyk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Missing Data ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Low Density ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>Madagascar is an Island in Western Indian Ocean Region. It is mainly exposed to the easterly trade winds and has a rugged topography, which promote different local climates and biodiversity. Climate change inflicts a challenge on Madagascar socio-economic activities. However, Madagascar has low density station and sparse networks on observational weather stations to detect changes in climate. On average, one station covers more than 20 000 km<sup>2</sup> and closer neighbor stations are less correlated. Previous studies have demonstrated the changes on Madagascar climate, but this paper contributes and enhances the approach to assess the quality control and homogeneity of Madagascar daily climate data before developing climate indices over 1950 – 2018 on 28 synoptic stations. Daily climate data of minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation are exploited.</p><p>Firstly, the quality of daily climate data is controlled by INQC developed and maintained by Center for Climate Change (C3) of Rovira i Virgili University, Spain. It ascertains and improves error detections by using six flag categories. Most errors detected are due to digitalization and measurement.</p><p>Secondly, daily quality controlled data are homogenized by using CLIMATOL. It uses relative homogenization methods, chooses candidate reference series automatically and infills the missing data in the original data. It has ability to manage low density stations and low inter-station correlations and is tolerable for missing data. Monthly break points are detected by CLIMATOL and used to split daily climate data to be homogenized.</p><p>Finally, climate indices are calculated by using CLIMIND package which is developed by INDECIS<sup>*</sup> project. Compared to previous works done, data period is updated to 10 years before and after and 15 new climate indices mostly related to extremes are computed. On temperature, significant increasing and decreasing decade trends of day-to-day and extreme temperature ranges are important in western and eastern areas respectively. On average decade trends of temperature extremes, significant increasing of daily minimum temperature is greater than daily maximum temperature. Many stations indicate significant decreasing in very cold nights than significant increasing in very warm days. Their trends are almost 1 day per decade over 1950 – 2018. Warming is mainly felt during nighttime and daytime in Oriental and Occidental parts respectively. In contrast, central uplands are warming all the time but tropical nights do not appear yet. On rainfall, no major significant findings are found but intense precipitation might be possible at central uplands due to shortening of longest wet period and occurrence of heavy precipitation. However, no influence detected on total precipitation which is still decreasing over 1950 - 2018. Future works focus on merging of relative homogenization methodologies to ameliorate the results.</p><p>-------------------</p><p>*INDECIS is a part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462).</p>

scholarly journals Impacts of future climate change on potential yields of major crops in China

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 617-647
Author(s):  
Y. Yin ◽  
Q. Tang ◽  
X. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Potential Yield ◽  
Crop Models

Abstract. Climate change may affect crop development and yield, and consequently cast a shadow of doubt over China's food self-sufficiency efforts. In this study we used the model projections of a couple of global gridded crop models (GGCMs) to assess the effects of future climate change on the potential yields of the major crops (i.e. wheat, rice, maize and soybean) over China. The GGCMs were forced with the bias-corrected climate data from 5 global climate models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 which were made available by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The results show that the potential yields of rice may increase over a large portion of China. Climate change may benefit food productions over the high-altitude and cold regions where are outside current main agricultural area. However, the potential yield of maize, soybean and wheat may decrease in a large portion of the current main crop planting areas such as North China Plain. Development of new agronomic management strategy may be useful for coping with climate change in the areas with high risk of yield reduction.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on fish infectious diseases (a review)

2020 ◽  
pp. 78-110
Author(s):  
Yu. Rud ◽  
◽  
O. Zaloilo ◽  
L. Buchatsky ◽  
I. Hrytsyniak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Fish Farms ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Key Words Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Climate ◽  
Increasing Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Purpose. As the climate change impacts freshwater and marine ecosystems, and rising ocean temperatures and acidification continue to this moment, our aim was to analyze the literature and summarize information on the development of fish infectious diseases in the light of global warming. Findings. Even a slight increase in temperature affects the life cycle, physiology, behavior, distribution and structure of populations of aquatic bioresources, especially fish. Recent studies show that some infectious diseases of fish spread much faster with increasing temperature. Climate change contributes to pathogens spread in both marine and freshwater areas. In particular, rising water temperatures can expand the range of diseases. Aquatic bioresources have high cumulative mortality from infectious diseases, and pathogens are rapidly progressing, and these phenomena may be powered by climate change, leading to the geographical spread of virulent pathogens to fisheries and aquaculture facilities, threatening much of global production and food security. The article presents data on the impact of climate change and global warming on aquaculture and fisheries. The list of the main pathogens of fish of various etiology in Ukraine, including viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases is presented. The impact of infectious agents on modern aquaculture is described and the main ideas about the possible long-term consequences of climate change for fish farms are given. Practical Value. The review may be useful for specialists in veterinary medicine, epizootology and ichthyopathology. Key words: climate change, infectious diseases of fish, pathogenesis.

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